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Waymo - now in SF. This will be a more serious test of Waymo's system relative to Phoenix roads. I reviewed an user's youtube test of Tesla FSD beta in the streets of Berkeley and it did well as streets there are similar to those in SF but Berkeley doesn't have a downtown area like that in SF and UCB was not packed full of students walking in adjacent streets as during normal non-Covid times.
https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/17/waymo-begins-robo-taxi-tests-in-san-francisco/
Texas grid recovery began with SOLAR.
>>>Solar Key to Restoring Texas Power, Grid Operator Says (12:57 p.m.)
Texas’s grid operator credited solar power with the fast restoration of power that began Wednesday afternoon.
“We had quite a bit of solar generation online,” Dan Woodfin, director of system operations at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, told reporters Thursday. “When the solar generation was online, we started trying to bring back a lot of the load.”<<<
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-17/texas-crisis-deepens-economic-fallout-spreads-energy-update
The future of gas stations as seen through Norway's transition. IMO grocery stores and Costco make for perfect charging stations for those without access to home charging.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-18/when-cars-are-all-electric-we-ll-still-have-gas-stations
TOT/BP - TOT ceo is upset at BP for high bids for offshore wind rights.
https://www.ft.com/content/0d3c0ea1-2643-4ceb-90ed-961d51f8123d
Bill Gates has been doing a publicity drive for his zero carbon energy proposals. Within in the last few days, 60 minutes, CNBC, NPR, etc.
He is positive that a nuke design with sodium cooling and sodium storage (as at focal solar plants) will provide the needed stability to grids that will be dominated by renewables.
https://natriumpower.com/
Don't have enough details to comment on distribution system but it would be moot to think about downstream when the clogging is happening from water knock out points and upstream of those points. There would be a lot less to distribute and IMO that is probably happening with the temperatures that people did not thought of or design for.
If you force me to pick something in the auto industry, I would choose something that will have an easier time transitioning to EVs. INTC/Mobileye and MTOR as examples. There was article today about AMZN, UPS, FDX and USPS having outsized influence on who the likely winners will be in the future. No mention of software in the article.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-16/amazon-and-ups-are-kingmakers-in-electric-vehicle-bubble
TM - In pole position to take ICE market share as they don't have acute chip inventory issues.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-15/toyota-broke-its-just-in-time-rule-just-in-time-for-the-chip-shortage
Gas hydrates clog up production equipment and meters.
https://petrowiki.spe.org/Predicting_hydrate_formation#:~:text=For%20gas%20mixtures%2C%20a%20relatively,is%20greater%20than%201.2%20MPa.
I know one person that drives the Bolt and he loves it. He got a good deal on it because it was such a hard sell after Model 3 came out.
GM - updated Bolt EV and EUV with increase in range. Still on an obsolete platform but they throw in Super Cruise and lowered the price to sooth the effect of losing federal tax credit.
https://www.theverge.com/2021/2/14/22280449/chevy-bolt-ev-euv-super-cruise-range-price-specs
China peak oil timing according to China's oil companies.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-02-09/china-needs-to-hit-peak-oil-long-before-it-reaches-net-zero-emissions
The most popular EV in China comes from GM JV.
https://www.autoblog.com/2020/09/26/gm-china-electric-micro-car-wuling-mini-ev
RDS - NYT interview. Crude production declines 1-2% per year while BOEPD stays flat. The timing shifts by single digit years but long term picture of NG and LNG displacing crude remains. Some think that renewables has low ROI relative to fossil fuels. Looking at DONG conversion to Orsted (DOGEF) gives that impression a reality check. Perhaps it is just a first mover advantage for offshore wind but then there are a lot of places left in the world in need of cheaper electricity.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/business/shell-oil-production.html
Not a very useful toy as first prototype only has 60 mile range. UAL has an existing business using helicopter for transfers between Hub and Regional airports so this fits right in and cheaper than helicopters. Given the choice between a conventional helicopter ride and E version with redundancy, I would take the E version and pay for the added safety.
E-VTOL transport for getting to and from airports for 30 mile radius. UAL ordered 200 of these for 2024 delivery. The company is aiming for the same cost as Uber, Lyft, etc ... I guess it should work as long as the aircraft can transport oversize baggage like golf clubs, skis, surfboards, etc.
https://www.archer.com/master-plan
I don't see how the Balkanized AV marketplace can be avoided at least initially. There will be a few dominant players and the rest just either fail fast or end up paying royalties to adopt dominant IP. Musk has said for years that he is willing to port his AP software stack to others as long as they don't have to do too much recoding. IMO that means that ECU hardware and sensor suite has to be very similar. Now with customized neural network SOCs, it will be a lot more than just porting software. IMO guessing TSLA software will end up being one of the dominant versions is a pretty safe bet now.
From a consumer standpoint, NTSB will require transparency on systems safety. For example, annual publications of accidents, fatalities, disengagements per million highway/non-highway miles on FSD.
GILD/GLPG - Interesting history on the drug with JNJ letting withdrawing only to have GILD pay a large upfront a few years later. Looks like the market had a notional value on GLPG's partnership portion at ~$1.3B.
https://pulmonaryfibrosisnews.com/2019/07/16/gilead-sciences-gains-rights-glpg1690-clinical-program-ipf-10-year-collaboration/
AAPL AV - Planning to have their own vertically integrated car in ~5 yrs.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-09/apple-more-than-doubled-road-tests-of-autonomous-cars-in-2020
CVX - CEO's CNN interview. The reporter didn't do a very good job teasing out information from Wirth. We end up with a lousy interview that makes CEO wishy washy about what happens in 20 years. Sounds like Wirth has some idea of what is being considered even if renewable H2 and CH4 turns out to be dead ends. Australian businessmen meanwhile are gunning for 500% renewable capacity. 400% aimed for export to Malay/Indonesia peninsula. RDS bought out an Aussie utility (ERM) in 2019 so perhaps they will participate in that.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/08/business/chevron-oil-climate-crisis
ENTA RSV - I haven't kept up since your comment that RSV vaccines have been failures historically. What makes you optimistic about ENTA's effort?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6701037/
IIVI - Q2. 3D sensing takes off using 940 nm VSCEL's. Finisar purchase well timed.
https://ii-vi.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/IIVI_Investor_Presentation_20210209.pdf
F - nice review and the price as tested is very competitive.
BNEF/IEA - so how far behind the curve are they? For mainland China only -
Forecast for 2020 renewables capacity additions
IEA - 85 GW
BNEF -72 GW
Actual - 120 GW
Even if we take out the 26 GW (mostly western China, Xinjiang Province) that was grid connection only (leaving 94 GW newly installed AND connected assuming no deferred connections to 2021), IEA was off by ~10% and BNEF was off by ~30%. Since China is the biggest renewables market in the world, that is quite a contribution to overall forecasting error.
So true. XBI has outperformed FGEN in the same time frame so FGEN has been a laggard over that period plus all the way back to summer 2018 highs. I would have been better off just putting money in XBI or IBB over that time frame. FGEN has to more than double to catch XBI from 2018 peak. Or I could just put it in ABT like you and be much better off with that money while collecting a dividend.
FGEN - a new 52 wk high finally. This is par for the course as we count down towards 3/20 PDUFA decision. There was a nice master's thesis by a European student that looked at price action prior to PDUFA and the starting gun is around 60 days prior so this move is right on schedule.
I was under the impression that Mustang EV was going to be F's show piece of what they have done internally. I guess not. TSLA Giga Berlin is in process of installing enough body fabrication presses to make 1M/yr, IF they operate at 50% efficiency. That should be scary for everybody that is not ready for the tsunami.
GME pumper and dumper has another boiler room operation via SPAC. Must come with the Facebook DNA.
https://hindenburgresearch.com/clover/
Are all bio microcaps going crazy or is there a particular theme? I have a small position in AGEN and I guess it is blind luck that bio microcaps are going nuts but then that tends to happen periodically with bio microcaps during this time of the year and not necessarily a Reddit herding effect.
I think you over estimated the time scale by 10 months.
AGEN - coincidence that I mentioned them yesterday wrt GSK/CVAC collaboration. Today they released preliminary P1 iNKT data on intubated Covid patients and stock is up +12%. N is only 4. 3 was extubated and 2 within 24hr of iNKT dosing.
Do you have a listing of stocks that the Reddit group likes? I haven't followed what they are doing besides GME. BTW - BofA just raised GME target to $10.
Seems like old news. Kia belongs to the Hyundai Chaebol. AAPL was upset at Hyundai for talking about AAPL approaching them. Not sure if this is any better from AAPL's position. Seems AAPL would be better buying out Lucid or Rivian if they are serious about integration and testing of their software. Foxconn is suppose to set up an EV manufacturing subsidiary as well.
CVAC/GSK - collaboration news on Covid. The results from the CVAC trial doesn't seem very strong in comparison to MRNA and BNTX results so I am puzzled about what GSK has that can enhance CVAC's molecule. Is it the adjuvant made by AGEN?
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/curevac-shares-leap-on-glaxosmithkline-covid-vaccine-pact
You're referring to their BNEF business and articles. Denning is one of the laggards that need to ve dragged screaming from old thinking. He is still not caught up but he is trying. BNEF, IEA and EIA are in annual competition for the "least wrong" award about the speed of the transition. Amongst the bankers, Leerink has been the least wrong. BP inhouse work appears to be middle of the real thing. So yes, I am not sure what you mean by bias when they are still wrong, ie BNEF is in constant chase of the curve,
IMO there have been inherent biases in favor of established energy production that we are so used to that we don't recognize that inherent biases exist. Using the Bloomberg article as an example, the one the looked at total system energy efficiency, there a major part of the efficiency calculation that is missing. But it has always been missing because people just don't think about it. ie the efficiency of energy production. The efficiency for refining is probably captured in the "industrial" portion of the calc. However, there is a lot of energy intensive things that are not accounted for by getting the crude from the layers of rock miles beneath the surface up to the pipes in a sufficiently homogeneous form for shipping or piping. A lot the that energy and associated emissions are not even accounted for especially in areas with little infrastructure to NOT waste things.
Just think about how many millions of barrels of water has to be lifted and separated/treated at Ghawar as an example to produce a million barrels of oil. We think of that as being close to free because NG is worthless in SA.
PLTR - reversed my sale just now and back to where I was prior to GME squeeze.
You two are funny. There is no need for anybody to write pro renewables or pro fossil fuel articles.
Solar PV bids are dropping by 20% a year. The last record was 0.0132 USD/Kwh. Money talks, BS walks.
This opinion piece captures the question well IMO. There seems to some gaming by one of the parties in putting this out into the public. Another question is whether SAramco is willing to pick up the unwanted pieces and whether USgov will allow that.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-01/exxon-chevron-merger-talk-smacks-of-big-oil-on-defensive
The article is about the long term scenario and not much if anything to do with short term price fluctuations. Denning is not a clean energy journalist by any stretch of imagination. He has covered oil companies for decades now.
Alright. Perhaps there is hope for Liam Denning afterall. Second law of thermodynamics is a bitch for heat engines (ICE motors for example) and here is a good explanation for laymen.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-opinion-renewables-will-power-future-of-us-energy