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semi_infinite

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semi_infinite

Re: semi_infinite post# 23472

Friday, 02/05/2021 4:33:36 PM

Friday, February 05, 2021 4:33:36 PM

Post# of 29293
BNEF/IEA - so how far behind the curve are they? For mainland China only -

Forecast for 2020 renewables capacity additions

IEA - 85 GW
BNEF -72 GW

Actual - 120 GW

Even if we take out the 26 GW (mostly western China, Xinjiang Province) that was grid connection only (leaving 94 GW newly installed AND connected assuming no deferred connections to 2021), IEA was off by ~10% and BNEF was off by ~30%. Since China is the biggest renewables market in the world, that is quite a contribution to overall forecasting error.
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