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LOL....5
And then there was Gartman's comments on CNBC....
Right, but did all these facts come together on the 10? As a contrarian investor, I won't be contrary until at the very earliest 2pm, more likely EOD or tomorrow morning. I have a lot of GDX, and NUGT calls I bought yesterday on the charts.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-17/gold-celebrates-americas-three-month-can-kicking-soars
OH.....and the CTFC is no longer furloughed, JP Morgan has limited international wire transfers and China is STILL buying like a mad man.
I posted yesterday about this....it may be short lived (through the end of week) but the downgrade from China this morning, higher jobless claims, the massive buy orders after hours yesterday, and then this from my previous post:
"Don't forget this....
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-10-16/gold-surged-17-15-trading-days-after-last-debt-ceiling-extension-2011"
......all this adds up to a big big day. GLTA
REUTERS
PRECIOUS-Gold jumps as US budget deal seen delaying stimulus reduction
Thu Oct 17, 2013 7:23am EDT
* U.S. shutdown damage seen delaying Fed taper
* Sharply higher volumes trade on COMEX gold in European hours
* Dollar feels the pressure from budget deal; Dagong U.S. downgrade
* Traders await economic data, stimulus outlook (Changes dateline, byline, adds quotes, updates prices)
By Veronica Brown
LONDON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Gold rushed to a one-week high on Thursday, aided by dollar weakness and belief that a temporary deal to avoid historic U.S. debt default might also prompt the Federal Reserve to hold back from reducing its additional monetary stimulus.
Unusually for early European trading hours, significant volumes were also seen on COMEX gold futures with over 17,000 lots traded in 10 minutes alone.
Spot gold surged quickly to a one-week high just shy of $1,320 per ounce up more than 2.5 percent on the day. By 1114 GMT, it stood at $1,312.84. The December COMEX gold futures contract touched a high of $1,320.50.
The dollar fell against a basket of major currency rivals, and was last down 0.7 percent, with dealers citing the budget deal and Chinese rating agency Dagong downgrading the United States to A- from A.
Congress passed a last-minute deal to avert a debt default for now, with analysts saying weeks of uncertainty that knocked investor and business confidence would have dented growth prospects for the world's largest economy.
For gold market participants the temporary budget deal was seen as a positive for prices as it would keep the Federal Reserve from withdrawing monetary stimulus at least until the beginning of next year.
"Tapering will be postponed much further, so that's probably the main aspect behind the current spike in prices," Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann said.
But while the immediate impact for prices was positive, most were realistic on gold remaining very much in bear territory overall, with an improving global economic picture contributing to investors exiting the market.
"The sentiment for gold is still quite bearish with outflows from exchange traded funds and the risk sentiment pretty weak. It is hard to see reasons why gold will be higher," ANZ analyst Victor Thianpiriya said.
Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, on Wednesday fell 3.6 tonnes to fresh four-year lows at 885.53 tonnes.
The fund has seen over 400 tonnes in outflows this year, dampening investor sentiment.
Investment management firm FinEx Group and the Moscow Exchange MOEX.MM said they had launched Russia's first gold-backed exchange-traded fund.
Gold hit a three month low earlier this week as the U.S. shutdown failed to generate strong safe-haven bids. Traders said markets had not priced in a default as they always expected the United States to come up with a last-minute agreement.
With the passing of the deal, investors will turn their focus to key economic data - which had not been released due to the shutdown - to determine the impact of the impasse on the economy and the Federal Reserve's stimulus measures.
Silver gained 1.9 percent to $21.78 per ounce, while platinum was up 1.8 percent at $1,413.49 and palladium rose almost 1 percent to $720.22. (Additional reporting by Jan Harvey and Freya Berry in London; editing by William Hardy)
Might have something to do with this:
"China's Dagong rating agency, which several hours ago just downgraded the US from A to A-, maintaining its negative outlook. The agency said that while a default has been averted by a last minute agreement in Congress, the fundamental situation of debt growth outpacing fiscal income and GDP remains unchanged. "Hence the government is still approaching the verge of default crisis, a situation that cannot be substantially alleviated in the foreseeable future."
Might have something to do with this:
"China's Dagong rating agency, which several hours ago just downgraded the US from A to A-, maintaining its negative outlook. The agency said that while a default has been averted by a last minute agreement in Congress, the fundamental situation of debt growth outpacing fiscal income and GDP remains unchanged. "Hence the government is still approaching the verge of default crisis, a situation that cannot be substantially alleviated in the foreseeable future."
Might have something to do with this:
"China's Dagong rating agency, which several hours ago just downgraded the US from A to A-, maintaining its negative outlook. The agency said that while a default has been averted by a last minute agreement in Congress, the fundamental situation of debt growth outpacing fiscal income and GDP remains unchanged. "Hence the government is still approaching the verge of default crisis, a situation that cannot be substantially alleviated in the foreseeable future."
But the $1.7 mil was legit for sure.
I can't find anything definitively either way. The fact that it was not shadowed by a large Put order is a good sign (not a hedge), the fact it was all in one lot at a defined price with no subsequent boost to SP makes me think again. I don't know for sure. My gut says it was a settle.
Trying to look now and make sure it wasn't a settle on a pool trade between MMs.
GDX $123Mil buy at $23.27 AH
I'll be watching closely through the morning at block trades and option purchases to get an India of direction for tomorrow. Should be a great profit opportunity everywhere.
Not a clue. Maybe through a deal, the fed secures the dollars synthetic value globally and reduces its footprint on the Gold manipulation and price goes up. Maybe the USD/Gold inverse relationship restores and it goes back down. Maybe the relationship remains funky and it follows suit through the roof. Maybe the inevitable postponement of QE assures relative dollar suppression and prices soar. Maybe the market "sells-the-news" due to the apparent pricing in of a deal and Gold soars.
OR.....a deal is not reached and all the above are reversed. No clue L. Seriously no clue. What will happen will be because it is beneficial to the USA in order to maintain credit and reserve currency status. I'm fairly certain those two are the only concerns of our government. And of course the well being of the American people :/
Might want to lock that in and reload when this dips again. Just a suggestion. You already have a core and 12% is a good day in anyone's book.
One in the same.....holding to position themselves for the move in either direction once announcement is made is my guess. We will probably see the move PM in the morning since this likely will not have a solution before 8-9pm tonight.
Don't have an answer on the manipulation, but they are pigs, and quickly becoming hogs....
That's the point of all my posts.....all we can do is make a best guess and be nimble enough to take profit or eliminate risk. For every bullish argument, the exact same facts can be used to make a bearish one from precedent somewhere on the timeline. Crazy investment vehicle.
Lol, wait for it....
This is a possibility....I have no doubt in my mind the house will put the kibosh on the senates proposal towards EOD and this thing skyrockets like yesterday. Or they meet 5 different times causing the market to yo yo. Who knows right now.
Noted...I'll keep an eye on that.
Looking for that massive dump (market orders sell) this morning to correct the healthy rise yesterday, right about now is when they normally execute. Still don't see it yet.
Tail wag the dog? Surely you jest. Who knows, nothing would surprise me anymore in gold.
Curious to see where this bullish engulfing pattern leads.
Here and GDX
Mainstreaming of manipulation in the gold market...it is quickly approaching non-conspiratorial status:
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-10-15/price-suppression-theory-mainstream-after-single-650-million-sell-trade
Mainstreaming of manipulation in the gold market...it is quickly approaching non-conspiratorial status:
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-10-15/price-suppression-theory-mainstream-after-single-650-million-sell-trade
Can't now that I know where you have family. Long story short it has to do with waste management and where they chose to dump LI trash.
Ok, cancel the joke that was about to follow lol. Long Island guy here.
This is unbelievable. I can't believe the propaganda int e senate right now. Maybe it happens and I eat crow, bt this thing is likely heading for no deal by the 17th, and of course they won't let it default....the fed has bailed out countries for trillions in the past, they will do the same here for their own county. This is and was never a legit concern to the gov, just a posturing. It amazes me how quickly the senate speaks up when the market dips.
Are you from Jersey?
....this is from par for the majority of AH, and down a couple pennies on a 100 share trade. Insignificant.
Grabbed some calls yesterday on GDX. Closed half last 10 minutes, looking for a hopeful second leg in the morning to close remainder. Good day.
Like I said, it's a lotto ticket, but I like the odds.
This is definitely a possibility, however regarding "If it happened all at once the big boys can't make money," I would have to argue that the 5000 contract, market order sell the other day may prove otherwise. Seems they were doing anything possible to drop prices (pre-market no less). I am positioned for both scenarios, nothing points definitively in either direction right now. GL either way, should be fun to watch.
I'm not going to be buying a lotto ticket on shorting gold (not naked anyway), but I am gambling on a sell-the-news effect on SPY. Because of the priced in effect of the market, I have a hunch it will dip. Have some puts
Market assumes no default either. Is any of this really a factor then?
Even with an agreement, it is still unlikely we will see taper until 2014. So, I'm not so sure the effect on Gold will be so black and white in retrospect. I think the action will still shock most. I'm more inclined to be in the prolonged sideways trading camp. We will see soon enough.
Likely a load up prior to gov meeting at 3. "Trade the news" activity should be fun....but will not happen until AH.