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If you're nervous sell half. Nothing wrong with taking profit....ever
My ledger is biased towards a bullish stance as I closed have of my downside on my strangle. But I just don't have a clue here. Possible early pop into a slow bleed tomorrow would be my expectation based on last time. But....no way of knowing. It's miller time.
Some allow it some don't. Generally it's thinly traded and illiquid. Obviously not the case here with FB.
So far AH my calls are up over 300% est. tomorrow morning should be something special.
That was actually the chart I was looking at. I don't follow NUGT or DUST to trade the chart. Just papa bear.
If I squint my eyes real tight I can make out the handle of a cup forming and an IHS shoulder. Might need glasses
Amen....I play to win, big or small. The name of the game is limit exposure and set profit targets. Don't get greedy, ring the register when warranted and most importantly, if you do decide to gamble on a lotto ticket, don't let pride keep you in it until the ledger balance is zero. Take your medicine and move on to the next one. Congrats my friend
Sold half puts for 36%. Still holding half, and full calls
Hell of a day when JCP is up in a see of red outperformers.
Entire market is a see of red. Sell the news appears to be the flavor
On GDX....sorry. Wrong board. Similar trade here as well, but I simply added puts slightly OTM today to hedge.
Just put in strangle at 26.50/26 for total of $1.54. Ready either way for a big move here.
That probably pretty accurate. Buy orders in.
Not really sure how to respond to this. I'm a free market capitalist....I believe in a high rate of return and any means necessary with limited interference. Beyond that, I am a contrarian. Capitulation is not subjective.
However, the fed will announce no taper (I assume), and they won't speak on it until the following day. I'm thinking pop before capitulation. What say you?
I completely expect them to....which is why I'm buying in much smaller tranches than usual. I don't THINK the market will react adversely to the BS...but I don't know.
Nothing LT about what I'm holding....
Already sold puts for small profit. Bought first bucket of calls, will buy more from now through tomorrow morning. Watching SP closely.
Wait....you mean this won't go up at a 45 degree angle? Yeah, figured it needed a breather..., I'll likely be long EOD.
Looking for another 2-4% to sell my puts and flip to Calls before tomorrow.
Gold Tests 5-Week Highs. "Should Continue Pushing Higher":
Citi
On the back of dismal data this morning merely compounding the belief that whatever happens, there will be no Taper anytime soon (and record high physical premiums over spot as Indian demand surges), gold prices broke back above $1360 this morning to five-week highs. Of course, that 'rise' was very quickly squelched as stocks POMO'd higher from the US open; but, as Citi's FX technicals group notes, the break of $1343 points to a test of $1430 and a bias to testing back above the $1522-32 region.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-28/gold-tests-5-week-highs-should-continue-pushing-higher-citi
Gold Tests 5-Week Highs. "Should Continue Pushing Higher":
Citi
On the back of dismal data this morning merely compounding the belief that whatever happens, there will be no Taper anytime soon (and record high physical premiums over spot as Indian demand surges), gold prices broke back above $1360 this morning to five-week highs. Of course, that 'rise' was very quickly squelched as stocks POMO'd higher from the US open; but, as Citi's FX technicals group notes, the break of $1343 points to a test of $1430 and a bias to testing back above the $1522-32 region.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-28/gold-tests-5-week-highs-should-continue-pushing-higher-citi
Also, to beat a dead horse, notice anything that stands out this time around? No? Me either, the silence is deafening. In fact I've read about the FOMC meeting 3 times and heard about it on CNBC about as many times in the last two days. They aren't churning the media rhetoric because the taper is not going to happen. It can't happen. However....JMO
Also, nobody wants to be at the helm when the ship goes down. Bernanke will be political, of course, saying "maybe next time," but that is simply to save face and avoid a crippling of the USD internationally in order to maintain reserve status. He has to keep the talking heads talking of a resolution, and to do that he has to give hope. This entire show is synthetic, just the prices of gold paper and the USD. Best show on earth.
I don't see legit talks occurring until end of Q1 2014, but believe the market will still shy away in anticipation on weakness tomorrow (hopefully for me). Also with Yellen at the helm next year it's just as likely she will increase easing as it is she tapers. I hope you're not going all in on this lottery pick. If you are planning on going big in either direction with shares (as opposed to options) I would scale in slowly. GL
Bought Nov puts for a quick flip tomorrow. I think there will be a pause before FOMC Wednesday. Likely long EOD tomorrow going into announcement.
Which would be a minimum 1000% gain in options....oh boy! I just don't see it happening, but I'll be right there to take advantage if it does.
Three Scenarios for Gold as
It Nears Major Turning Point
by Larry Edelson
I'd like to clarify my position on gold:
First, it's bottoming. I can't tell you precisely when or at what price, but I have every reason to believe that gold is now in the timeframe for a bottom, and a major bottom at that.
In fact, it may have already bottomed at $1,178 back in late June. That is possible. Or it may dip back to near $1,178 one last time, soon, or even after a big rally. Or it may just explode higher here and now.
It is impossible for me to say with any certainty. For anyone to say, actually.
All I can tell you is, again, that all of my models indicate that gold is very near, or already may have seen, an important bottom.
Second, trying to time the exact day or even the exact week, and the exact price, would simply be foolish.
That said, let me give you the three scenarios I see for gold. If it seems like I am talking out of both sides of my mouth, let me assure you that I am not.
I am merely giving you the three most likely scenarios for gold going forward, scenarios you will need to keep in mind to get properly positioned so you can minimize risk and maximize potential profits.
Now is the time for long-term gold investors to begin testing the waters.
To invest or trade gold now without having these scenarios in mind is simply foolish.
Scenario #1: Gold's low at $1,178 in late June was the major bottom. In this scenario, gold must now confirm it by moving and closing above $1,449.50 on a Friday, weekly basis followed by a weekly close above $1,605.50.
So far, gold has taken out important short-term resistance at the $1,338 level. That does indeed imply a further rally, with the next important level of resistance at the $1,400 level, followed by $1,449.50.
Scenario #2: Gold continues to rally, as high as $1,605.50, but fails to close above $1,449.50 or $1,605.50 on a weekly closing basis. Gold then trades back down, even as low as the $1,265 level in early 2014, and then begins another move higher, one that eventually gives us the "buy" signals we need to confirm the end of the bear market and the beginning of the next leg up. The $1,178 June 2013 low holds, but gold swings wildly before taking off for good.
Scenario #3: Gold continues to rally, as high as $1,605.50, but fails to close above $1,449.50 or $1,605.50 on a weekly closing basis and then collapses into a major new low in 2014.
Whereas a new low below $1,178 was the highest probability before, it is now the lowest probability scenario. But we simply cannot throw it out the window.
In this scenario, we see a decent rally in the weeks ahead, but it fails to issue major confirming "buy" signals and, instead, trades lower as in Scenario #2 above.
But instead of holding major support at the $1,265 level early next year, gold crashes right through the June 2013 low at $1,178 and makes a new low down at major system support at the $1,035 to $1,050 levels.
Now, I fully realize you might not like anything I just told you, that you think I'm hedging my gold forecast or talking out of both sides of my mouth. Or that you like Scenario #1, the most bullish, and you don't like, or agree, with the other two scenarios.
That's OK. I am not trying to win a popularity contest. I am not here to tell you what you want to hear. My job is to tell you what I see ahead based on my tried-and-true models and indicators, and without any bias.
I always call 'em like I see 'em, and precisely the way I would put my own money on the line, which brings me to ...
What should you do now in gold? In silver? In mining shares?
As you can tell from the above three scenarios, we are likely to see gold now rally into year-end, and as high as $1,605.50 or even higher.
That sounds really exciting, right? Heck, if that kind of rally were to materialize, it would be gold's best performance in almost three years.
But as I've shown you, unless gold closes above $1,449.50 and $1,605.50 on a Friday closing basis, then the gold rally would be for naught, it would be nothing but a bear market rally. And if you loaded up too much on gold, it would backfire on you.
So instead, now is merely the time to begin to test the waters. You don't go all in, you don't over commit, you don't become impatient, and you don't get overly emotional.
You map out your strategy based on all the evidence and data you have, and then you focus most of your energy on controlling the unknowns, your risk. That's how the most successful investors and traders make the most money, by controlling — and, indeed, insuring against — the unknowns.
For gold, that means long-term investors can start buying gold again, lightly, committing at this time, no more than 5 percent of your funds available for investing in gold, being fully aware that we do not have full confirmation yet that the low has been made. Testing the waters with up to a 5 percent position will help limit your risk.
For traders, you trade leverage positions, but hedge your bets with limited risk inverse ETFs, with options, or even spread your futures strategy both long and short. Basically, you put yourself in a position to profit from a rally from a bottom in gold if we have already gotten it, yet you take out some insurance in case you're wrong.
As for silver, this may or may not surprise you, but I would continue to steer clear of the metal. There is a chance silver has not bottomed yet, even if gold has. Hard to believe, I know, but that is what my models are telling me.
For mining shares, my models tell me they have not yet bottomed. Again, hard to believe, but most mining-share ETFs have taken out that important cyclical low they made back on Aug. 6. That means lower lows are possible.
So, like silver, it is indeed possible that mining shares may still move lower, even if gold has already bottomed and even if gold stages a decent rally. Hard to believe, yes, but that's what my models are telling me, and I never deviate from what they say. They have proven themselves over and over, time and time again. So, for now, mining shares are not yet primed for major investment.
Right now, I urge patience and emotional discipline. Those are always the two most important elements of successful trading and investing, especially near major market turning points.
Major market turning points offer tremendous opportunities for profit, but they are also the most dangerous. The markets never take any prisoners, so you want to make sure, through patience and emotional discipline, that you're not going to be one of its victims.
Stay tuned to all of my writings during this critical juncture.
Best wishes,
Larry
FOR EARNINGS about a quarter of the S&P 500’s market cap are due to report this week including a number of heavy weights such as Exxon Mobil, Berkshire Hathaway, Chevron, General Motors and ConocoPhillips, with Apple set to print after the close today.
Gun to my head....yes.
And I get that too. MY point is that prices ARE low.
Correct. They have simply sat back and put in buy orders. They (and I) believe that in 10-15 years, prices will be through the roof. They haven't had to do anything to manipulate because the US has done it for them in the name of a propped up dollar for reserve currency status. Maybe they begin soon, but this IS considered low prices.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/10/19_Billionaire_Sprott_Says_Gold_%26_China_To_Dominate_The_World.html
Yes, but they haven't had to because Goldman and JPM have been doing it for them. That is the biggest point of contention lately in the market.
Not a dumb idea....and if you do decide to front run, do it with money you don't mind losing.
No. Being priced in is contingent on normalcy of market stimuli. Gold is not in a normal state and is still hung over from the unchecked manipulation earlier in the month. This is the rhetoric I was referring to. Analysts have been collectively bearish on the metal, and then collectively generic in their writings during bullish run because of this (ie. "slam dunk sell" and then "stimulus priced in") when the truth is likely closer to: the market is gaining because it is attempting to recover where it can, to take advantage of politically generated catalysts. I'm not saying this runs huge, but I'm saying that "priced in" is subjective in Gold, but generally objective and quantifiable in a legitimately regulated security. My opinion of course.
I don't think it matters what she "wants" to do. She can't do it. She, the gov, the rest of the world know this. Can't pay off debt by producing more money, for dollar created it creates a multiple of debt. The cycle is self serving and deprecating at the same time. Our fiat based way of life is on a finite timeline and we can only stretch so far before it is forced to violently snap, and unfortunately it won't be by our own doing. I have a strong feeling that China and the like will force this issue very abruptly and deliberately at a time if weakness. But for the near term, price movement here will be purely synthetic and driven by rhetoric in the FED/QE infinity song and dance
I'm thinking sideways, tight range trading, possible downward bleed into Weds.....then explosion after no taper is announced. Just a guess on past performance
***** Latest Commodities Report shows Bank Participation in the Futures and Options Market *****
* Updated October 1, 2013
The banks REDUCED their short positions in Gold and in Silver since last month.
http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/BankParticipationReports/index.htm
Wow, this guy is uber bullish. Unreal. I disagree with anyone who is extreme right or left....but who knows, he could be right. I've held physical for a long time, try to buy some every year. Other than that I trade.
I think you are on to something, but maybe for not the same reasons. I understand the correlation between gold and the miners is tepid, however the price action will/has to have a gravitational effect not he miners and I see this whittling it's way north. Long term, I'm happy through my accumulation of physical and paper, short term I love the paper trades for a long time. Q4 should he very profitable.