Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
It's crazy someone would sell for 0.25 less. If they waited one hour they would have an extra $1,250 in their pocket.
My interpretation is someone is "betting big" that we will be over $10 by June 26th. Let's hope they are correct.
Ignatius, the open interest on the June 12.5 calls is now 400 so it doesn't appear the OI provided is real time. The 400 went off in 2 blocks 200 each. Both at 0.05 and 15 minutes apart. At the time, the b/a was .00/.20 so I'm thinking someone thought to sell covered calls while the share price was up. The share price was between 9.25 and 9.30 when they were executed. Interesting in that the share price didn't go above 9.25 after the options were bought/sold.
I think today's action will be similar to yesterday's. Trend up in the morning 'til about 11 (I think we hit $10) and slow drop to noon (9.50ish) back up over lunch and then in a 0.20 trading range rest of day (all without news) and we close at 9.80.
Tom, you had me laughing at your short answer comment! I was just saying to myself "can he just give me a up or down answer? LOL I'm an eternal optimist, so I'll say the 5.30's are history unless there is bad news.
Ignatius, you are correct. I just spoke with Fidelity, the OI is in real time. The rep did say, if the volume was 400 and now the OI is zero, he stated both the buyer and seller had to close out their respective orders. He also thinks it's a neutral event in that both the net buyer and net writer both closed their positions since the OI is now zero.
I guess we will soon find out.
Just four more doubles from here.!
Ignatius, do you mind double checking the June 12.50's? Fidelity is showing a volume of 400 and zero open interest and I don't think the OI is in real time so I suspect by tomorrow the OI on the 12.50's will say 400. Thanks.
Talon, that alone would add a big multiplier to any potential BO. I would think BP would make a move on that before the drug hit the streets. I can see it now...Anavex a__________ company (fill in the blank with your favorite BP).
And the plus patent in our back pocket. One day our share price will jump several levels (most likely passim the teens and twenties). However, I'm still looking for the $1 day gain I called out over six months ago.
Talon - Interesting story. If Maxim's PT includes Rett then it would be nice to see what they think is the market size and therapy pricing. I'm assuming Missling/Rett Org already has discussed a range for pricing and thus Maxim may have an idea of a range. It would be interesting to see how they think it will play out. I'm certain once approved for Rett, the PT would be raised significantly due to other CNS issues.
Or the shorts buying calls prior to them covering. They will make out both ways.
Fidelity is showing they now have shares available to short.
And the options are indicating news. The June options traded so far today is 2x+ the open interest volume (954 traded today vs OI of 454). Hmmm
July options also worth noting. I joined the gang and added 5 of the July 10's. It was my Starbucks allowance for next 5 months. :).
If this news is driven then we should see a strong close at the highs of the day or beyond.
I am just looking to see where the short term value is coming from. Is it patents, orphan drug approval or AD. I'm sure it's all of the above so it would be nice to understand their price breakdown.
Thanks Jimbo
Maxim has a price target of $17. Does anyone know how they calculated the $17? I ask because most here believe it should be a lot higher especially since Missling stated we could get readout by early 2018 so I'm thinking Maxim is using very very conservative numbers.
If you had to choose, do you think we hit the lower target or upper target first?
Article states tutes own only 11.59%. That's not correct.
If rare diseases are the fastest way to approval then why didn't we start a trial for a rare disease 18 months ago? Based on the timetable, we would have been approved over 5 months ago and then prescribed for off-label for AD related insomnia.
If the results are as profound as most of us believe then why the need to spend so much time to optimize the trial? If it solves insomnia then enroll all patients who can't sleep and have that as a milestone.
I also wonder if the data mining is due to the 15 month data not being as stellar as the 57 week data? I know I'll catch shxt for this, it is taking a long time to get the next phase of AD going. If things are just the tip of the iceberg, then I say lets hire the right people and control our destiny. I think the lack of progress is due to everything being done by others. Yes, it's less expensive short term, however I believe it adds months and months to trial completion.
Where is the patent news? Are we waiting for our outsourced Legal team to review?
I sense all my questions will be answered by end of year. Sooner would be great.
And Biogen is still mentioned on slide 23 for MS.
You think 1B would go with the shareholder rights plan in hand?
I said Merck but meant Pfizer. Merck is in another company in invested in.
I wonder since the various foundations are funding the trials are they imposing any stipulations about limits on pricing if and when the drug gets approved?
Talon - I actually think Merck is in the game. Wouldn't it be something if Biogen and Merck formed a partnership with the sole purpose of buying us out? Independently, coughing up $10B may be difficult to swallow, however, if they create a partnership and each contribute $5B, then that may appease their shareholders due to less risk and provide assurances in that somebody else believes there is value in the $10B investment. Dang, let's add a third party and up the ante to $15B!!
Why not?
And I believe Rett was to start sometime in Q2 however the last 10K states trials wouldn't start until second half. If you call IR they will always refer you to the latest SEC filings. A surprise would be nice but I'm getting too old to expect it early. :)
News about trials starting won't be until Sept. is my guess. I would love to hear about it sooner but things don't seem to move that fast. IMO, the challenge is we are always waiting on others to kick the can down the street. Less than a dozen ee's means lots of stuff is "outsourced" to non-profit organizations and perhaps their are also lacking on manpower to drive results quicker. I wish I had the huevos to sell covered calls and pick up a little income while we wait. I've been here too long to risk hearing news earlier than expected. I hope and I wish I'm wrong. Time will tell. In the meantime, tutes will most likely add another 5%+ to their holdings this quarter and next.
Day half over and the big bid at 5.80 is now less than half the size
Also it looks like someone is selling the June 7.5 calls (covered call?).
Most likely no news until sept. Is my guess.
That's nice to see. Hope it's real. 5.85 to 5.93 appears to have a lot for sale. As light as the volume has been it may take all day to get to 6.00.
It's down on no volume. Most likely the author of last week's SA article helping his cause.
For us believers, today's news is not that profound. If you believe it works based on previous preclinicals, then today news is just confirmation of what we already know. It works!!
What is going on with the patent? My guess is we will stay in the 5.50 to 6.00 channel for another couple weeks without news. I hope this is not a boring summer. Boring defined as no significant news.
So, should we expect 6 month data on the "new" trail vs 18 on the old?
We can only say that for so long. At last count, we been speculating such for 3+ months. Time is very near. We need to hear something profound.
With all the stars aligning, we should be hearing some great news soon (weeks)???
The best time to buy is now. positive PIII results eventual buyout. money in the bank
So he thinks he can make $4 if it hits his 75m MC. How short is he? 100 shares? He was digging, going back many years, attempting to boast his reason for being short.
One way to prove him wrong is to release some good data. We are overdue. Now would be a perfect time. Let's see the 15 and 18 month data.
It's an arbitrary date. I'm just thinking investors will get itchy if we don't hear anything in a couple of weeks. It may be 3 or 4 weeks but at some point people want to hear something and if we don't I feel the short term holders will sell.
I'm still holding my 1,000 trading shares I bought at 5.90. LOL!!
Hi Tom, it seems to me once the charts take a bearish tone we pop a little and just when it seems we may be in a billets cycle we go down.
I say we drift between 5.50 and 6.00 for another couple of weeks while we anticipate news. If no news by the week of June 5th, then I say we can drop to test the 4.95 by mid June.
Let's hope we hear something powerful in the next several weeks.
Agreed. After my last post I went back and reread and noticed the date (Feb 2016). So perhaps it means if data is consistent at time of application and last year's data when orphan status was requested.
Perhaps. It kind of read to me like conditional approval, where you get to go to market but have to continue validating with trial results. It doesn't say "at the time of application" it says "at the time of marketing authorization".
You may be right! What I was thinking, they submit data at the time of application and since the application can take six months they need to submit the (latest) data again at the authorization meeting (if there is a meeting) to ensure the data is consistent to what was previously provided. In any event, it seems like we are further along then most thought. Perhaps the reason for today's move with above average volume.
This assumption will need to be confirmed at the time of marketing authorisation, in order to maintain the orphan status
Perhaps it means we need to provide the latest trial updates a week prior to decision meeting to ensure current data is good as of the date of EMA submission. Just a guess.