Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
My guess they may be a small and quick sell off without additional news. The add'l 5m shares should not be a surprise. It was part of the proxy and KNOWN. I wouldn't be surprised to hear about the patent come Tuesday morning.
I've seen share prices after dilution because the money was being spent on trials. It looks to me LP is bought the shares at $5.80 and perhaps that is why we traded in this range for so long. They were the ones most likely selling above $5.85.
IMO, this is a non event and with this out of the way the good news will start flowing.
Remember LP bought the sales at $5.80 and we are on our way up not down.
My only concern at this point is the lack of trials starting. The AD trial is taking way too long IMO. If data is good as pontificated and coupled with the anecdotal reports of the painter, piano player and golfer, I would think the Aussie gov't would be doing something to jump start the next phase. If evidence is so strong then the Aussies should have some form of conditional approval and run P3 concurrently with approval. Seems logical and compassionate to do so.
Well, let's see if we get some GOOD news on Tuesday. We are overdo. Especially on the patent thanks to you!!
Zig, true what you said, but what would be better? A) put out positive PR on patent and let it run to x+ and then issue PR on LP and have share price drop to x? or B) issue LP PR AH and then patent PR premarket next week and share price runs to x?
Assuming we get some good news on Tuesday, I would prefer B. They both get to x however B gets us there with less volatility. If Missling is as methodical/thoughtful as most folks think then it should slam dunk conclusion we get positive PR in Tuesday.
I don't think the 5m shares is a big deal because they are most likely being issued instead of the preferred since they were shot down. I believe the smart money (tutes) understand that if the preferred got shot down the company would most likely issue add'l common. What is the other choice? Take on debt? Although, I was surprised by the timing (after hours on a long weekend) I did expect it.
I now wonder if the 15 month data was pulled because Missling saw that it was going to be tough to get the preferred approved and decided to wait until after this event. Maybe he also waited on this to happen to PR the new pAtent. I bet we hear of the new patent on Tuesday premarket.
I think this was due to the preferred being voted down.
Yes and it looks like LP still has about another 1m from last year's deal.
I'm guessing the delay in the patent plus PR is due this offering so I'm thinking we will hear of the patent news next week and as we run LP will be selling shares into the buying spree. My guess is we still reach $7 next week with patent us PR.
And thus today's add'l 5m shares added to our float. Hope it's put to good use.
Today is turning out to be the slowest day (volume wise) in over two years.
So what would be a reasonable target price for a buyout? Appx 153m shares so a 1B MC would be about $6.50/sh. How big is the market for the therapy?
That's what I was thinking earlier in the day... PR plus patent premarket tomorrow and it sink in over the 3 day weekend. Perhaps maybe catch a few shorties off guard as they leave early to extend their weekend. It would be nice however, I don't think the odds are high for it to happen.
I don't think they will ever go away, they will just set up shop at a higher level (45-60 range). :).
5.80 doesn't appear to be that strong looking at the daily chart. It took less that 15 minutes and only 12k shares traded. To me the 5.97 to 6.00 is the tough resistance. I see at least 60k shares in queue in that range. I'm sure there is more but that is all level 2 was showing when the b/a was at 5.95/5.96.
Djia, but doesn't that mean every second that goes by, we are one second closer?
The 12.5 calls are active again today although not the same volume as yesterday. Thus far, 345 for June and 142 for July.
Ahh! LOL! I missed it by a whole month. I need A2-73 now for myself!!
Since next week starts the 2nd half of 2017 anything can happen in one day so perhaps somebody wants to fill their need before the long weekend. It would say something if we break above 5.97 to 6.00. It looks like lots of resistance at this point.
I wonder if today's premarket dump was made by someone attempting to rattle the cages of retail in the hopes of accumulating more on the cheap.
This will be like CPXX last year at this time. CPXX when from $2 to $8 in Feb to Mar on P3 data. Then a double to $16 one month later in April and then another double to $30+ in a buyout in May. So in3 months the stock price when up from $2 to $30+.
It's crazy someone would sell for 0.25 less. If they waited one hour they would have an extra $1,250 in their pocket.
My interpretation is someone is "betting big" that we will be over $10 by June 26th. Let's hope they are correct.
Ignatius, the open interest on the June 12.5 calls is now 400 so it doesn't appear the OI provided is real time. The 400 went off in 2 blocks 200 each. Both at 0.05 and 15 minutes apart. At the time, the b/a was .00/.20 so I'm thinking someone thought to sell covered calls while the share price was up. The share price was between 9.25 and 9.30 when they were executed. Interesting in that the share price didn't go above 9.25 after the options were bought/sold.
I think today's action will be similar to yesterday's. Trend up in the morning 'til about 11 (I think we hit $10) and slow drop to noon (9.50ish) back up over lunch and then in a 0.20 trading range rest of day (all without news) and we close at 9.80.
Tom, you had me laughing at your short answer comment! I was just saying to myself "can he just give me a up or down answer? LOL I'm an eternal optimist, so I'll say the 5.30's are history unless there is bad news.
Ignatius, you are correct. I just spoke with Fidelity, the OI is in real time. The rep did say, if the volume was 400 and now the OI is zero, he stated both the buyer and seller had to close out their respective orders. He also thinks it's a neutral event in that both the net buyer and net writer both closed their positions since the OI is now zero.
I guess we will soon find out.
Just four more doubles from here.!
Ignatius, do you mind double checking the June 12.50's? Fidelity is showing a volume of 400 and zero open interest and I don't think the OI is in real time so I suspect by tomorrow the OI on the 12.50's will say 400. Thanks.
Talon, that alone would add a big multiplier to any potential BO. I would think BP would make a move on that before the drug hit the streets. I can see it now...Anavex a__________ company (fill in the blank with your favorite BP).
And the plus patent in our back pocket. One day our share price will jump several levels (most likely passim the teens and twenties). However, I'm still looking for the $1 day gain I called out over six months ago.
Talon - Interesting story. If Maxim's PT includes Rett then it would be nice to see what they think is the market size and therapy pricing. I'm assuming Missling/Rett Org already has discussed a range for pricing and thus Maxim may have an idea of a range. It would be interesting to see how they think it will play out. I'm certain once approved for Rett, the PT would be raised significantly due to other CNS issues.
Or the shorts buying calls prior to them covering. They will make out both ways.
Fidelity is showing they now have shares available to short.
And the options are indicating news. The June options traded so far today is 2x+ the open interest volume (954 traded today vs OI of 454). Hmmm
July options also worth noting. I joined the gang and added 5 of the July 10's. It was my Starbucks allowance for next 5 months. :).
If this news is driven then we should see a strong close at the highs of the day or beyond.
I am just looking to see where the short term value is coming from. Is it patents, orphan drug approval or AD. I'm sure it's all of the above so it would be nice to understand their price breakdown.
Thanks Jimbo
Maxim has a price target of $17. Does anyone know how they calculated the $17? I ask because most here believe it should be a lot higher especially since Missling stated we could get readout by early 2018 so I'm thinking Maxim is using very very conservative numbers.
If you had to choose, do you think we hit the lower target or upper target first?
Article states tutes own only 11.59%. That's not correct.
If rare diseases are the fastest way to approval then why didn't we start a trial for a rare disease 18 months ago? Based on the timetable, we would have been approved over 5 months ago and then prescribed for off-label for AD related insomnia.
If the results are as profound as most of us believe then why the need to spend so much time to optimize the trial? If it solves insomnia then enroll all patients who can't sleep and have that as a milestone.
I also wonder if the data mining is due to the 15 month data not being as stellar as the 57 week data? I know I'll catch shxt for this, it is taking a long time to get the next phase of AD going. If things are just the tip of the iceberg, then I say lets hire the right people and control our destiny. I think the lack of progress is due to everything being done by others. Yes, it's less expensive short term, however I believe it adds months and months to trial completion.
Where is the patent news? Are we waiting for our outsourced Legal team to review?
I sense all my questions will be answered by end of year. Sooner would be great.
And Biogen is still mentioned on slide 23 for MS.
You think 1B would go with the shareholder rights plan in hand?