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Bought puts this morning on FURX. I expect a pullback in the near term
I'm holding a small portion of calls through March.
There is no whisper on the website regarding EPS....this has typically been a big earner for be every quarter for earnings. What are you basing this on?
You shorted the stock? You shorted puts?
Wait and see....patience. The CC could mention something that would be good for another 10% pop. Tea leaves about pricing of product or any number of factors could drive this one either direction pretty quickly.
Be ready and nimble....the pop (if at all) would likely be short lived. Seems conformation bias plagues this one.
I don't have access to the execs plans, nor do I assume anything, however it is not set in stone that these guys HAVE to exercise, rather have the option to exercise beyond a given price or time frame (obviously price in this scenario).
Postyle - Thanks for all your info for guys like me who are trying to learn. So were these insiders forced to convert their derivatives at $5 into stock? Could they have held them and converted at a later date for a higher stock price. How many shares were sold into the market by these insiders? Might not seem like a big deal but I wish i knew 2 days ago that these guys figured $5 was a good price.
www.mofo.com/files/Uploads/Images/FAQ10b51.pdf
"How is the price of the shares to be traded pursuant to the plan determined?
Rule 10b5-1(c)(1)(iii)(B) defines “price” as the market price on a particular date or a limit price, or a particular dollar price.
Can a Rule 10b5-1 plan set minimum or maximum prices for trades?
A Rule 10b5-1 plan can be set up to execute trades with minimum or maximum prices or with prices that change over time, so long as the price targets or the method for determining the price targets are set forth in the plan.
How are trading dates determined under a Rule 10b5-1 plan?
Rule 10b5-1(c)(1)(iii)(C) defines “date” as, in the case of a market order, the specific day of the year on which the order is to be executed (or as soon thereafter as is practicable under ordinary principles of best execution). In the case of a limit order, “date” is defined as a day of the year on which the limit order is in force.
How often can trades be made pursuant to a Rule 10b5- 1 plan?
A plan can be tailored to the specific needs of the individual who sets it up. For example, the plan can specify that trades will be made on a regular basis, such as monthly or bi-weekly.
Alternatively, a Rule 10b5-1 plan can be designed to initiate transactions upon certain trigger events. For example, a plan can provide for sales several days before a tuition payment is due, with the number of shares to be linked to the average cost of tuition as published by the college."
Which is the exact reason I chose March options on this one. Let it shake out
Absolute battle right here at 14
Correction 15%
VNDA
FDA approved.... Up 10%
Yup....just exited my put side of my Strangle....run baby run
VNDA just went nuclear on volume....FDA must have spoken
Then again.....odd price action
Must be approved
Nada....I keep scouring Twitter to see if it pops up. May be AH. We shall see
VNDA
PDUFA decision tomorrow (1/31/2013) for Tasimelteon for treatment if insomnia in Totally blind patients (Non-24-hour-Disorder)
2 strangles here:
March $11 puts/March $15 Calls
Feb $10 Puts/Feb $14 Calls
If you have this much money in a single, relatively low beta stock, you should know that you don't buy that much in options on a non-High Beta stock. Lack of liquidity will eat your premiums and profits by the time you can sell them all to close. The MMs will churn SP so much before you get half way through your ledger, you will end up chasing sells and ultimately eliminate profit. I would say don't put so many eggs in this basket...unless you are just so wealthy and frivolous that you can just throw caution to the wind and let it ride. Then again, anyone I know with that much in one security (I know a few close friends), generally don't post that kind of info on a public MB. GL
VNDA
PDUFA decision tomorrow (1/31/2013) for Tasimelteon for treatment if insomnia in Totally blind patients (Non-24-hour-Disorder)
2 strangles here:
March $11 puts/March $15 Calls
Feb $10 Puts/Feb $14 Calls
PO board?
.46 move and I'm in the money....exponentially up from there. I'm pretty comfortable with this play.
That is always a great thing with these Bio strangles, and often why I begin buying about 3 weeks out. There is always a dip at some point because big money likes to load shares on the cheap. A lot of times, like you mentioned, you can get a significant run in either direction, enough to take your cost basis off the table and play with house money, or at least risk much less. Doesn't always play out the way though. And then again, there is a delay and you scramble to salvage premium and look to roll over. But, I still expect a dip with a delay so you may print or break even in any event. We shall see.
I'm currently in March $11 puts and March $15 Calls (average .90ish on both sides)
Also added Feb $10 Puts and Feb $14 Calls slowly throughout the last two weeks.
I added puts on the runs and calls on the dips so my premiums are nice and low. I tend to be patient and methodical when adding, and always 1:1.
Either way, I don't expect an explosive run on VNDA (hence March options for slow run)...but I hope for it (hence Feb options).
CHTP on the other hand, I expect to lock in large profits very quickly in either direction (assuming no delay) as she has proved a beast with news.
Good luck all.
Not at all.
I'm currently in March $11 puts and March $15 Calls (average .90ish on both sides)
Also added Feb $10 Puts and Feb $14 Calls slowly throughout the last two weeks.
I added puts on the runs and calls on the dips so my premiums are likely lower that you will find today...I tend to be patient and methodical when adding, and always 1:1.
Either way, I don't expect an explosive run on VNDA (hence March options for slow run)...but I hope for it (hence Feb options). CHTP on the other hand, I expect to lock in large profits very quickly in either direction (assuming no delay) as she has proved a beast with news.
Good luck.
Very possible. $17 is my goal in the immediate/near-term. Playing a strangle for either event.
VNDA 8-K filed
Item 1.01. Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 24, 2014, Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (“Vanda” or the “Company”) and Patheon Pharmaceuticals Inc. (“Patheon”) entered into a Manufacturing Agreement (the “Agreement”) for the manufacture of commercial supplies of HETLIOZTM 20 mg capsules (tasimelteon capsules) at Patheon’s Cincinnati, Ohio manufacturing site. Under the Agreement, the Company is responsible for supplying the active pharmaceutical ingredient for HETLIOZTM to Patheon and has agreed to certain minimum yearly order requirements. Patheon is responsible for manufacturing the HETLIOZTM 20 mg capsules, conducting quality control and stability testing, and packaging the HETLIOZTM capsules. The Agreement has an initial term of five years and will automatically renew after the initial term for successive terms of one year each, unless either party gives notice of its intention to terminate the Agreement at least twelve months prior to the end of the then current term. Either party may terminate the Agreement under certain circumstances upon specified written notice to the other party. The foregoing description of the Agreement does not purport to be complete and is qualified in its entirety by the full text of the Agreement, a copy of which will be filed with the exhibits to Vanda’s quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.
New 8-K filed
Item 1.01. Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement.
On January 24, 2014, Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (“Vanda” or the “Company”) and Patheon Pharmaceuticals Inc. (“Patheon”) entered into a Manufacturing Agreement (the “Agreement”) for the manufacture of commercial supplies of HETLIOZTM 20 mg capsules (tasimelteon capsules) at Patheon’s Cincinnati, Ohio manufacturing site. Under the Agreement, the Company is responsible for supplying the active pharmaceutical ingredient for HETLIOZTM to Patheon and has agreed to certain minimum yearly order requirements. Patheon is responsible for manufacturing the HETLIOZTM 20 mg capsules, conducting quality control and stability testing, and packaging the HETLIOZTM capsules.
The Agreement has an initial term of five years and will automatically renew after the initial term for successive terms of one year each, unless either party gives notice of its intention to terminate the Agreement at least twelve months prior to the end of the then current term. Either party may terminate the Agreement under certain circumstances upon specified written notice to the other party.
The foregoing description of the Agreement does not purport to be complete and is qualified in its entirety by the full text of the Agreement, a copy of which will be filed with the exhibits to Vanda’s quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ending March 31, 2014.
I'm on the iPad right now. I'll take a look at the videos a little later tonight. Thanks for the reply. I'll be looking to take an position in this company likely in the next month or so. I'll get back to you once I see the videos.
This has been a n exciting play....bought several, Feb and March 7, 8 calls. Sold 3/4 of the position and will likely add puts for the strangle 1:1 this week. Watching premiums.
That's acceptable, 3X is fair bellwether. Right now, it is trading as a pre-revenue company might with prospects but no paychecks. It's expected to have volatility and slow bleeding I to a binary event. I won't prognosticate one way or the other, I am an options trader and trade for high percentage, high profit situations. My first impression with a gun to my head, they look strong going into the FDA decision, and I would likely profit 1000%+ in that situation as opposed to ~500% on a denial (assuming drop to $2 area). But as I said, I don't buy shares in my trading account, only my core, and my core holds 4 Biotechs fairly heavy. SRPT, LLY, PFE and GILD. GL to you
I know the top line Phase II data is due in June....what is expected in April?
It was a good article. Pretty sums up all my hopes and fears on this play. I still might get a knee jerk reaction to the delay (if it happens) to get a .50 move on my puts to cover/profit on my strangle...at which point I'll have to roll those into a future option strangle. However, it won't be immediate. I'll likely wait for the dust to settle before I start buying more in tranches on the cheap. Hopefully this won't be necessary.
I feel dirty
I'm hoping you're right...it's my only risk in this trade, so my fingers are crossed.
Yes, calls and puts. I'm adding steadily. Calls on the dips and puts on the pops to keep them cheap, 1:1. On a .46 pop in either direction I'm off to the races. .90 move and I'm up 100%...and so forth. I expect a minimum $2 move...if approved possibly $4+. I don't like gambles, but the risk (all investments have them) would be if the FDA were to announce a delay. I'd be out premiums on the shorter term options likely. The company website gives a great breakdown of the drug.
This is the worst blog ever. They post pictures of a model, call her Sierra and post predictions that hit about .001 percent of the time. If it proves to be accurate, it the blind squirrel finding the nut. This person "Sierra" literally throws everything against the wall.
Impossible question to ask. That's why I have a position that profits in either direction. I don't play all biotechs, but I am good at picking the large catalytic plays which have heavy implications in the medical community.