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Exactly. People think AMRN would knowingly "play games" with a federal judge? Basically lie to a federal judge in making up continual deadlines when they full well know they won't meet it? Pretty far fetched.
haha!
Funny post.
I did find this:
http://www.streetinsider.com/SEC+Filings/Form+4+CHIASMA,+INC+For%3A+Jul+15+Filed+by%3A+Abingworth+LLP/10732735.html
If you add up the Series D' Convertible Preferred Stock line you will get the 2,080,595. The note says that the preferred converted to common. It also shows some warrants appear to have been exercised. So on 7/15 looks like they owned 2.6m shares. They must have sold the stock that was exercised from the warrants.
Again, wrong facts.
CHMA has 23.94m shares issued and outstanding. Abingworth owns 2,080,595 shares. You can please do the math. But hey, nice try with a "gotcha!" moment. Unfortunately I must, AGAIN, correct people who can't look up basic facts. No idea where you got your 13%.
John Thero added to Chiasma's Board.
If you recall, during the third quarter Abingworth sold completely out of AMRN and then took up a large position on Chiasma (CHMA); 9% of the company. I just saw the news that Thero has been added to the CHMA board of directors.
People had discounted the idea that Abingworth and AMRN were very well connected. So very nice of Mr. Thero to accept such a position from a fund that decided to dump 9m shares!
Why would Oct 30th have ever been an original deadline if this was about an interim look? Why would they purposely make a deadline they know wouldn't be met? Why would they make a Dec 17 deadline when JT is repeating the interim look is in 2016?
Do you think about these things? Discussions are not about REDUCE-IT. That would be a much too dangerous game for AMRN to play with their trial that is of the utmost importance. You don't play games with this trial!
Based on everything we have heard (FDA needs REDUCE-IT for Anchor indication, discussions are not about SPA or label change, hell even JL's attorney discussion stating they hadn't "thought of that angle"), discussions appear to be an eventual non-factor with nothing significant coming out of this "settlement".
You can't be serious?
You can't seriously be throwing out the idea that the DMC would continue the study for personal compensation, can you? Total ridiculousness. The DMC abides by the highest ethical standards and what you just mentioned would never be a factor in the decision of whether to stop a study.
NOPE.
Companies don't use these conferences to release news. They are just used for general presentations on the company for those unfamiliar with the company. These conferences happen ALL THE TIME and are not places where news is released. Scores of companies will be presenting.
Again, total lack of knowledge rearing it's head on this board.
Nope.
Once again you throw out these stupid theories that are not related to reality. It has nothing to do with enrollment. If it was related to enrollment, then Oct 30th would have never been a deadline to begin with. And the deadline would have been later than Dec 17th. Based on JT rhetoric, didn't sound like enrollment was gonna happen by Dec 17.
But never mind, keep throwing out theory after theory that never comes to fruition.
Again, if you really believed this, you WOULDN'T be invested in AMRN! You would be invested in the stocks they are much much deeper into.
"What I fail to see in any of your incessant postings is a semblance of balance or recognition that there is potential upside for the Company that may occur"
Then obviously you haven't looked too hard. Just some I found pretty easily, and there are other positive ideas and my beliefs of actions that could be taken to positively influence the stock:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=117363502
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=117363870
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=117897513
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=118285403
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=118419557
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=118406861
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=118124806
Agree with everything you just said 100%. I have been echoing the same ideas. JZ bought a mansion estate in 2013 with his stock sale proceeds (you can search the property records). It is sickening and the guy is a white collar criminal, IMO. And management has compounded the problem with bad decision after bad decision since then. And they have done nothing to de-risk ANYTHING for shareholders. Now everything completely rides on REDUCE-IT, when investors had $15-$20 a share in their pocket 3 year ago. Not if everything goes perfectly, perhaps in 3 years from now we could see $15-$20 again. The FDA has certainly done a lot of damage, but management has made the problem worse and AMRN will never trade higher on potential alone ever again.
Ugh. Again, never said that. This twisting of words is really out of control on here and it keeps getting worse! Let me recap what I actually said: All I am saying is that they are much deeper into other stocks and they still have not made a major move into AMRN yet. It's fine that they own the stock, but I think people reading way too much into it. They are a huge small cap biotech investor, of course they would own AMRN. So I don't read much into it as this point. Once they make a claim and announce they own 10-20% of the company then that is when notice needs to be taken. Until then, they are just holding a small exploratory position. There is a long list of stocks where they own 10% or more of the company. If Baker Bros is who you worship for their investing prowess, wouldn't it make sense to go into those stocks?
AMRN is a ridiculously small piece of the Baker Bros entire portfolio. Just looking at their common stock AMRN holding, it is their 79th largest position. In fact, they own over $100m worth of 12 different stocks. AMRN is an extremely tiny piece.
So my question for those who think Baker Bros is a HUGE deal to AMRN....are you also investing in their major positions? They own 25% of SGEN. 10% of INCY. 20% of ACAD. 42% of GHDX. 19% of BCRX. 15% of MRTX. 39% of AQXP. 14% of CERS. 15% of BLCM. 20% of NVTA. And I could go on.
If you truly believe that Baker Bros owning a significant portion of a stock is amazingly good news, then AMRN would be low on the priority list cause they are much deeper into many other stocks.
I just find it interesting. I think people are viewing Baker Bros as a confirmation bias to their position. Baker Bros has yet to make a more move into AMRN.
haha..no. Not even close. They don't even own 5% of the common stock. In fact, they don't even own 2% of the common stock! Yes, I realize they have preferred stock too. But they are in no position to dictate a buyout.
It's not about my writing. It is about everyone on here looking for "gotcha" type moments because I don't live in their bubble world and actually present a realistic view on this company. So they are doing everything they can to discredit, get me, twist stuff around, etc. They don't like people who don't live in their bubble, and some even are "ignoring" me. Yes, just "ignore" someone who presents a viewpoint that doesn't meet your viewpoint on things. Real nice strategy!
I have corrected over and over a lot of non-factual information posted here. But no on cares, they would rather people post inaccuracies and ridiculous theories than to live in the world of facts and reality.
I am the idiot, but we have Raf posting that a legitimate scenario is this going up 750% on a rumor followed by a 200% buyout? That is what is "ok" to post here? Well of course it is. It's mindless pumping and comforting to think about. You all love that stuff. Don't let the $2 stock and bad scripts get in the way of a good fairy tale!
Another person who failed reading comprehension. When did I ever say AMRN wasn't aware of any interest? All I said was there is no legitimate rumor out to the public! "legitmate rumor" = carried by a major news source, not some publication that doesn't even show up on google. A LEGITIMATE RUMOR has yet to come out. It doesn't mean there isn't interest, just that there is no legitimate info there is.
This board is just atrocious with not understanding what someone is saying and twisting the words to some other meaning.
Have you found any info on this "Sleuthing Health Care" publication that apparently ran the rumor? I googled it and couldn't find anything about it.
If there was a legitimate rumor this would be a lot higher. It would at least not be repeatedly bouncing off the $2 brick wall.
I think you, and others, are wrong when they keep saying that a BP would only make an offer if all uncertainty is gone, and REDUCE-IT is already shown to be a success.
BP's make gambles ALL THE TIME. They will buy companies before Phase III has even begun. They buy companies purely on potential ALL THE TIME. Gilead bought Pharmasset for $11b based on PHASE II. As discussed yesterday, BMY bought Inhibitex for $2.5b; and the drug eventually completely flopped in trials. I am sure I could find MANY MANY more examples with just a little research. If there is true, significant potential, a BP will go for it before the potential is realized because that way they can get it cheaper and without competition. So people just really need to stop with this idea that no one will make an offer until all uncertainty is removed. It is a ridiculous belief that has been shown to be wrong countless times in biotech M&A.
When do shareholders actually get a vote?!
Kowa can refuse a buyout? What in the world? How about we, FOR ONCE, let shareholders have a say on what they would accept? Back in 2012 all that mattered was whether JZ was satisfied with the offers. Shareholders never had a chance to have a say. And now it's still just about what JT wants. And apparently Kowa too? For once, put up an offer to shareholders and let them have their say. Give those of us who want to get out of this with a profit have a chance.
There is no legitimate rumor.
Yeah, quite the rumor. We got a whole 2 cents out of it!
Even if someone valued AMRN at $15 a share, they won't offer $15 a share! I really cannot believe people don't understand the concept of buyout premiums. If a company really thinks a $2 stock is worth $15 a share, they will over the lowest possible price that they think will win over shareholders. And based on history the cap on that offer is in the 150% range. No CEO worth his salt is going to go out and offer 500% for a company! Especially if the acquirer is public too. Shareholders will have his freaking head!
"IF" is always the huge word in all your claims. If it's stopped interim then this. Well know crap if it is stopped at interim that is a huge deal! But that is probably not going to happen! IF I go out and pick the right numbers and win the Powerball I'd be a millionaire too. So what? Obviously the odds of an interim stop are better than Powerball, but I don't think the odds are high at all of an interim stop. And neither does the market. And neither does Abingworth. Management doesn't expect it. And now many posters are doubting it as well.
Private company buyouts should not be compared to public company buyouts. Trying to compare the two is not a worthwhile exercise and provides nothing. AMRN is a public company, not a private company. ANd it will be treated like a public company, not a private company. And being a public company, the market gets to put up what it thinks the value of AMRN is, ie the share price and market cap. And it has spoken. For a long time.
As far as valuing AMRN, ignoring REDUCE-IT and just looking at current revenues and the balance sheet, $350m is way more than anyone would pay for it. So a small piece of REDUCE-IT success IS being priced in already. The market is just discounting it a lot because there are more urgent things that need to be tended to first (financing).
Ridiculous post. Nobody is stopping ANY BP from going to AMRN and making a $1b offer RIGHT NOW. What is stopping them? And yet no one has done that. And you think there would be a fist fight for $2b?? What planet do you people live on? Seriously, stop being so absurd.
Vascepa is sooooo coveted you all claim yet there hasn't been one freaking formal offer and this has been at $2 or lower for over two years. Many of you seriously live in a bubble and have no idea what is going on in reality. Claiming people would have fist fights to pay $2b for a $350m company. ha...so ridiculous.
I didn't realize Merck paid that much. But the Idenix and Inhibitex buyouts were really the result of an "arms race" for Hep C drugs. There was a fast and furious buyout spree the last few years for Hep C drugs (Pharmasset, Idenix, Inhibitex, Alios, Anadys). No BP wanted to be left out. So I would guess that this Hep C bubble resulted in some pretty inflated buyout prices due to the competition. BMY's buyout was a total flop; not sure on the others. I mean Gilead paid $11b for a PHASE II drug!
I wouldn't consider these Hep C buyouts anywhere near the "norm" given the unique situation they were all bought under.
Highly unlikely to move that much. Talk of $30, my god people, get it together and please stay on earth. It can't hold $2 right now.
As to the guy who can't read (BioChica), who says market caps don't matter in buyouts, the market cap represents what the market is saying is the current value of the stock. Buyout should factor in potential? Well, shouldn't the stock price? Market is speaking loud and clear on what it thinks about this company and its potential.
Back to Raf, you think it is going to rise 700-800% on a rumor, and then Pfizer will then buy them for a RECORD 200% premium on top of the 750% move??!! Are you serious? You are seriously throwing this out as a legitimate possibility? I just want to make sure you are really saying this could legitimately happen.
Boy, this board is like talking to a wall.
All I said was WHAT SOMEONE WOULD OFFER. LISTEN. What someone would OFFER. I made no comment about whether that offer would be successful. My god there are some serious reading comprehension issues.
For the last time, so I don't have to keep coming back and correcting those who can't seem to read:
The most someone would OFFER TODAY is $5 a share. Only the words OFFER and TODAY appear in that sentence.
Premiums are often described as the price paid over the average of a number of trading days before the deal is announced. Two Bloomberg articles that quote that INHX premium as 126%. I using these articles in my quotes that 150% doesn't happen:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-01-08/bristol-myers-agrees-to-buy-drug-developer-inhibitex-for-2-5-billion
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-04-24/human-genome-most-lucrative-on-record-biotech-premiums-real-m-a
From the first article it does appear it has happened once:
"The record is Genzyme Corp.’s 2006 deal for AnorMed Inc. with a 162 percent premium."
Either way, 160% is the highest ever! So $5 is the max someone would offer RIGHT NOW. Again people, RIGHT NOW. I am not making a statement about the future!
Also Inhibitex was a DISASTER for BMY. Completely money down the drain:
http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2012/08/bristol-myers_drug_flop_erases.html
Extreme micro cap with very small float. Please don't extrapolate that to AMRN! Even after all it's run, the KBIO market cap is still only $150m. They only have 4m shares. There were only a $4m market cap before the move started. Extremely small micros with small floats can make these moves.
Bottom line is that the only way AMRN goes anywhere is:
1) Buyout
2) Interim Reduce-it stop
3) Dilute, get the financing they need to survive, then focus can shift to REDUCE-IT.
I use to say a major partnership that would increase sales would do it, but I think we are past that point and it's too late. It is so late in the game that to get a solid partnership up and running, and the time it would take for sales to pick up is too elongated relative the financial situation. Focus is now completely on REDUCE-IT only, with the financial situation ensuring the stock goes nowhere until REDUCE-IT comes out 3 years from now.
Agreed. He mocks your post when we have to sit through mountains of his posts? Of someone who isn't very informed or intelligent on how things work. I could make a long list of idiotic RF ideas and posts.
Can you please find me a biotech deal that was $500m or more than had a premium higher than 150%??? Never happened.
I think we perhaps are looking at this two different way. I am looking at...what is the most someone would offer right now. TODAY. For a $2 stock with a market cap of $350m.
I think you are going into the future saying AMRN could get the stock price up with REDUCE-IT, which would result in a higher buyout offer. WELL DUH.
To say the market cap has nothing to do with a buyout is the dumbest thing I've ever read on here, and that is saying A LOT! Buyout offers are based on the current valuation of the company, with the premium being the way to get shareholders to agree to it. No acquirer is going to offer $10 for a $2 stock! Their heads would get rolled!
Kowa Pharmaceuticals America, Inc. is a subsidiary of Kowa Company Ltd.
I don't know how big Kowa Company Ltds. is, but they own a lot of different Kowa companies all over the world:
http://www.kowa.com/companies/index.htm
I am not sure of their finances, but I wouldn't assume they don't have any $ to buy AMRN if they wanted. Remember, AMRN market cap is sub-$400m, so the best offer one could expect right now would be less than $1b. Again, unlikely since AMRN management is bullheaded, stubborn, and would just scoff and laugh at a $1b offer. They think they are real hot stuff.
We can only wish. Outside of REDUCE-IT interim stop, a buyout is the ONLY thing that can move this stock up.
Now $2 a share is a brick wall.
We are going to need good news just to BREAK $2 a share again. That is how pathetic this has become. Can we please go back to the time before all the "good news" hit when we were trading at $2.40?!
13F info from sec.gov.....
Question 2
Q: Who must file Form 13F?
A: Institutional investment managers that use the United States mail (or other means or instrumentality of interstate commerce) in the course of their business and that exercise investment discretion over $100 million or more in Section 13(f) securities must file Form 13F. See Section 13(f)(1) of the Securities Exchange Act.
https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13ffaq.htm
As for Sofinnova, I don't know much about them. Looks like they have lots of different offshoots (VII, VIII). But we have no way to know if they still own the stock. They could have sold out a while back, or they could still hold. They aren't a 5% holder, that we do know. In fact, the lack of 5% holders is pretty pathetic considering the current market cap and apparent "potential" supposedly just right around the corner.
Yes? Anyone who acquires more than 5% of a stock files a 13g. Even an individual who acquired 5% wolud file that. What's your point? They aren't big enough to be classified as an institution. Institutional holdings are based on entities that file 13f's. This is the same definition of "institutional ownership" that all stocks use; this isn't particular to AMRN! So why are you bending the definition to make AMRN look better than it is in this regard? Just accept the reality of reality.
Stonepine Capital could now own 0 shares and we would not know it. We know they owned 5%+ at the end of last year. They could have sold out since then, or not. We don't know.
The bottom line is that you don't include entities that aren't defined as an institution in "institutional ownership". Again, they have less than $100m in net assets (which is extremely tiny) and the entire company is 3 people.
Stonepine Capital isn't being included because they don't file a 13F. Why don't they file a 13F? Because they aren't even big enough to be considered an institution. They have less than $100m in assets under management, meaning they are a piddly piddly firm that isn't even big enough to be classified as an institution. Also, since they don't file a 13f, we have no way to know if they even still hold AMRN stock.
Aristeia Capital does not own AMRN stock. They own convertible debt. At 3/31/2015 they reported ownership of 450,000 shares. At 6/30/2015 they reported ownership of 0 shares.
Why is this still being argued? This is very simple to look up, and holdings went down last quarter. And it is nowhere NEAR 50% ownership. Again, for the millionth time, I'll provide multiple sources to finally stop this ridiculous argument about an easy FACT to look up. But you are probably right, it's a conspiracy; I am just running wild with my own numbers claiming inaccuracies just to deceive shareholders!
http://whalewisdom.com/stock/amrn
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/amrn/institutional-holdings
j3sg numbers at the top aren't updated yet, as it still is using the 6/30 reporting period, but most all the institutions are updated as of 9/30, and if you add up the total shares it is about 48.5m, down from 51.3m at 6/30:
http://www.j3sg.com/Reports/Stock-Insider/generate-Institution.php?tickerLookUp=AMRN&pageNumber=1&descending=1&sortBy=value
Pretty consistent reporting that around 49m shares are owned by institutions. Roughly 27% ownership.
Very true. How much has AMRN paid these lawyers?! And so far we still have no NCE and 1A settlement just keeps going and going and going. I am sure AMRN lawyers are fine with these delays, they keep getting paid more and more. And JK gets huge stock awards for these court wins. Looks like everyone is making money here except for people like you and me! Lawyers, management, all getting theirs. Shareholders? Not so much.