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The real question is..........is Joe Z still in flip flops?
Not a penny under $30. Has to be about a decade since that was uttered, doesn't it? Is Joe z still in flip flops? Is Jesse Livermore still a go it alone apologist?
Not a penny under $30.
Weve got be pretty close to the 10 year anniversary of this, don't we? Is Joe Z still in flip flops?
Does Jesse Livermore still post here? The go it alone champion. I'd find it hard he'd still be around after being so utterly wrong. What shame.
Have you run the numbers and calculated what the value of the company was at $15 a share back in 2012, as compared to the value $15 a share would be now? It is a very very big difference.
You can't sit back and expect that much dilution in the low single digits to not severely hinder future potential upward movement.
Keeping this going...consider this. What would the valuation have been at $20 a share back in August 2012. Now, what is the valuation of $20 a share?
Their decision to GIA destroyed shareholders more than the FDA. Any biotech should be well aware of the major regulatory risk they face trying to get drugs approved. AMRN knew full well of this risk and rolled the dice. They had the opportunity to derisk this for investors and deliver a substantive buyout. They failed at that and confidently decided they wanted it all.
One of the worst decisions in biotech history.
Well considering no deal was made and the stock is now $3 4 years later, then I would say it is hard to make an argument about JZ's prowess as a negotiator and his superior business acumen. Again, when you have 20 interested parties salivating over your, and you can't close the deal, you suck.
That is not correct. Companies are under no obligation to disclose there is interest or a negotiation ongoing. There was negotations going on, but no FORMAL OFFER was made, for whatever reason. JZ even said they had 20 interested parties, and again they delayed GIA by one week because they were still evaluating things.
You are wrong that companies have to state negotiations are ongoing. No idea where you came up with that idea but it isn't true. Buyouts happens out of nowhere ALL THE TIME. How many buyouts happen with no advanced notice besides perhaps a reported rumor? Most of them.
Because a formal offer is the last step in the negotiation process. If JZ is sitting there firmly saying he won't take under $30. A BP could be like well I'll consider $17...JZ responds "nothing under $30 would be accepted". BP: "well, I might consider a $20 offer, but I couldn't consider anything higher". JZ: "Nothing under $30". This weird negotiation goes on for a while but JZ doesn't budge, and so no offer is actually made.
A formal offer is the last step of a long process. Just because no formal offer was actually made in no way means they coudln't have sold this for $15-$20 or there wasn't enough intereset to get that price. It just means things broke down along the way. This is supported by the fact that at one point they delayed the GIA announcement by ONE WEEK, meaning there was uncertainty regarding a deal at the 11th hour. Meaning it could have happened if things would have went right. I am of the belief that it broke down because JZ and the boys just wanted way more than any BP would have been willing to offer. Because, as we were told, "Anchor was on the way", so why sell out for peanuts of $20?
You are probably also of the mindset that all of Donald Trumps accusers are lying too.
They could have had $15-$20. $15 was a mere 25% premium from where it was trading so give me a break that they couldn't have gotten at least that if they wanted it. It was in the bag. They had like 20 interested pharmas. They delayed the GIA announcement because they were apparently on the brink of a possible buyout. Multiple news outlets reported the strong interest of companies like AZN and Teva. They wouldn't have delayed the GIA announcement as long as they did, even an extra week at one point, if there wasn't a strong chance of a deal being made. Somewhere near the end it broke down. Presumably because AMRN management wanted more than what a BP wanted to offer. You are telling me they had 20 interested parties, and none of them were willing to offer $15 a share? What world do you live in? And if you have 20 interested parties, and can't get a deal done, that is YOUR problem, and you are a horrible horrible negotiator. And if you wanted more than anyone wanted to give you, the problem isn't them, it is YOU. Like I said, GREED ruined it in the end. And look at how the karma from that greed has proceeded to work out.
That is what happens when you put all eggs into one basket. They want "the pie" 100% for themselves, and have refused to partner up, which could provide much needed cash and they could be running trials in other indications such as dry eye. Instead they went 100% in on this one single drug trial, instead of diversifying trials and firing multiple darts.
That is what greed does. AMRN is a great case study in how to NOT run a drug company and how management greed and bullheadedness can destroy a potentially good situation. $15-$20 wasn't good enough back in 2012. Are there any long investors besides JL and HD who wouldn't wish they had gotten $15-$20 4 years ago? It is highly unlikely AMRN will ever see $15 again. Even with 15% RRR it sure isn't gonna approach a $5b valuation. The "out of the ballpark" results are already out of the question since it wasn't stopped at interim.
Management screwed this up, and they cost all you bag holders and long time holders A LOT of money and opportunity cost by not selling out in 2012 or partnering. They still refused to get serious about marketing. In BP hands this is doing $100m a quarter right now, maybe more. Instead we get $30m and dilution after dilution. And dilution is far from over. Even now they refuse to partner because they don't want to "give up" all the future riches they think they are going to have. But continuing to dilute is much worse than if they would have partnered a long time ago, where in that case at elast sales would be way way higher than they are now. And it could have staved off some of the continual dilution. Dumb dumb people at the helm here.
Yep, everything is a grand conspiracy regarding AMRN.
A 2013 article?
I had to stop reading when I saw it say "In this article, I intend to show that there is a significant probability that the REDUCE-IT results could come in early 2016 instead of late 2017.".
I would have to say this article surely ain't too relevant at this point.
This could bleed for the forseeable future.
No idea how low it would go, but I expect it to just continually slowly bleed back down to $2ish area, probably lower than $2 at some point.
Like I had said, smart people were selling in the $3s.
There was one dude who, in an EPIC post, predicted a run to $10 leading up to interim.
Pipelines, future potential, etc. When you go from that potential phase to the "been on the market for nearly 4 years" things change to a valuation based on actual sales. Many a biotech has traded sky high based on potential then came back to major reality once marketing begins.
Yeah, yeah, REDUCE-IT is on the way! Ok great, but that is a long way off and AMRN has a lot more cash to blow through and at least one more dilution as well, before REDUCE-IT comes along. Meanwhile the patent is one day closer to expiring every day. Will be years before any sort of approval for REDUCE-IT and by that time the patent life has shriveled away to a fraction of its original value.
You forgot about AMRN's massive debt as well. EV valuation for AMRN is ridiculously high given current revenue, revenue growth, and EPS.
Smart people were selling in the $3s recently.
What are you missing? For starters, a basic knowledge of things called a stock price and a market cap.
had to be done prior to Interim look? Interesting, considering everyone on this board, except me, was vehement (fists pounding) that there would be no dilution prior to the interim look.
No, AMRN suffers from too many OWNERS, period. Way too much supply in this stock. So the thought off adding MORE supply as a way to help that? Ha...ooooooook buddy.
$2.85 is pathetic, when the stock was trading at $3.40. Incompetence rear it's ugly head again.
Didn't you get the memo...AMRN management are brilliant people! And $60m is again just a band aid to a much bigger problem. $60m is nowhere near enough to get them to the finish line.
Today or tomorrow
Didn't see it coming? You serious?
This should not be a surprise to ANYONE. This has been coming for months. I had predicted it would happen by 6/30, so I was a month and 10 days off on the estimate, for which HD mocked me. So many people on here were in complete denial that dilution was going to happen, but it was very obvious to anyone who isn't deluded that it was a must.
You can ALWAYS count on JT to be a buzzkill. I hope many of you prudently unloaded some in the $3s.
Um....if every short out there covered tomorrow it wouldn't end up near $15. It took 11.5 shares traded just to get this up 26 CENTS.
This is what happens when you have a diddly ineffective sales force. And then we have people like JL exclaiming that there is absolutely "nothing" that a BP could provide AMRN. Meanwhile doctors are still clueless, even about trigs higher than 500, 3.5 years after launch.
What does the change in the clinical trial page to not recruiting have to do with anything? We know they stopped enrollment months ago. It just happened to take some time for them to get around to updating the clinical trials site. What exactly is the significance? None, if you ask me.
Ok...if Reduce-It shows extraordinary data then the discussion changes. But to claim $8-$9b valuation without such data is laughable. No competent Bp executive would ever do such a thing. And for a buyout at $30, the stock would need to first climb to at least $12-$15 before such an offer could be made. What exactly is the impetus to take this to $15?
Go to $30 without Reduce-It data? Keep dreamin' bro. You are talking about a valuation in the neighborhood of $8-9b (I don't recall the exact diluted share count, close to 300m isn't it?). The thought of $30 a share is absurd.
Alright, well the other THREE examples in my post were drug failures.
Ok....I understand there are examples of almost anything. On the other hand look at CHMA. On April 8, 2016, it went up 16% in one day from 10.98 to 12.72. On March 28, 2016, it had closed at 8.06. It went up 58% in about a two week period. On April 18, they were denied approval and the stock immediately below $4. It is now at $2.65.
On July 11, 2016, CYTR went up 11%. On July 12, the very next day, it closed at $1.01 after announcing Phase III failure.
GALE went from $1.20 to $2.25 in a 4-5 week period in May/June this year. At the end of June they announced their Phase III was being stopped at interim for futility. The stock is now at 45 cents.
TBRA also had a sharp rise shortly before announcing failure.
You get the point.
And I have seen it weeks before a negative announcement as well.
There is no leak of anything. Like I said a real leak would have put this up well above $3 a share.
If there was a legitimate "leak" about Reduce-It data or a buyout, this would have been up a hell of a lot more than 10% on Friday. If the leak was Reduce-It about to be halted, this would have gone up 30%+ bare minimum. Similar with a buyout leak. Up went up 10% in one day and people are really exaggerating what may have caused it. Remember, most here think this is going to $30-$100 a share after Reduce-It is stopped, so to say a leak of this happening takes this to $2.65 is absurd. Price action would have been MUCH more robust and volume would have been off the charts.
Nope, I do not. Nothing can beat the AMRN board.
But hey, let's discuss JELIS some more, shall we? I mean there is still so much more that has to be said on that topic!
Or he has said all he needs to say and sees no purpose in continually arguing and rehashing the same things over and over and over like this board does. Don't worry, I am still reading the board, and finding amusement out of it. Plenty of posters still fully expecting an interim stop and opening at $30 a share.
Where has FishyFingers been? He been posting? He has a hall of fame post with his prediction of a run to $10 before interim announcement (also said the announcement of 966 would take this immediately to $3). The board prefers posts like this to realism.
And Raf, still, no payup on the bet he lost three months ago. Stay classy Raf.
haha...oooooooook
It is interesting how when people bring up JZ and JT and their past decision making that we get attacked for living in the past, and who cares about what happened so long ago, and its over and done with, yada yada.
And yet the last many days on this board have been spent ad nauseum rehashing crap that happened many years ago.
I do admit I am loving the conspiracy around every corner and paranoia atmosphere on the board. It is quite entertaining.
Ohhh...$18.4b. Sorry about that!
Whatever helps you sleep at night.
$17 billion? lol.
Maybe now you can pay up on the bet you lost two months ago.
Smart post (besides thinking this goes to $50 upon a stop). Spot on regarding dilution. Dilution is imminent. But again, proper risk management and decision making isn't a strong suit of this management team so making the correct decision isn't a given here. They could have diluted at $2.50 or higher last year, but they didn't. Will they take advantage of $2.10 now? They certainly should. When REDUCE-IT isn't stopped at interim they will certainly wish they could dilute at $2.10.
4. CPXX situation and stock price has absolutely nothing to do with Amarin