Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Mogwai]

"IF" is always the huge word in all your claims. If it's stopped interim then this. Well know crap if it is stopped at interim that is a huge deal! But that is probably not going to happen! IF I go out and pick the right numbers and win the Powerball I'd be a millionaire too. So what? Obviously the odds of an interim stop are better than Powerball, but I don't think the odds are high at all of an interim stop. And neither does the market. And neither does Abingworth. Management doesn't expect it. And now many posters are doubting it as well.

Private company buyouts should not be compared to public company buyouts. Trying to compare the two is not a worthwhile exercise and provides nothing. AMRN is a public company, not a private company. ANd it will be treated like a public company, not a private company. And being a public company, the market gets to put up what it thinks the value of AMRN is, ie the share price and market cap. And it has spoken. For a long time.

As far as valuing AMRN, ignoring REDUCE-IT and just looking at current revenues and the balance sheet, $350m is way more than anyone would pay for it. So a small piece of REDUCE-IT success IS being priced in already. The market is just discounting it a lot because there are more urgent things that need to be tended to first (financing).