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I think we have the same objective. Let's make some money.
"If the Market is always right, then, The Market is never wrong! "
In logic, a tautology is a statement which is true by its own definition, and is therefore fundamentally uninformative. Logical tautologies use circular reasoning within an argument or statement. In linguistics, a tautology is a redundancy due to superfluous qualification. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/tautology.
Your authors would have better served to have said, "Don't fight the trend". What they did say, as quoted in your post, was preachy and illustrative of the logical error described above.
"The market is never, ever wrong" - I think you are attempting to needle someone, eh?
"The Market" is wrong many times a day in a thousand places and that is what creates opportunities for traders. We arbitrage ignorance and mistakes, taking profits from the many, many errors in the markets. There is at least as much misinformation in the markets as there is fact. Prices blow up and down on the winds of speculation. They bob up and down on a sea of rumors. They trend on strong currents of demand and rejection. They surge on news, crest in greed and crash in fear. Prices change for no reason or for bad reasons as market making pirates steal from the unsuspecting. Some call these markets a great game, others call them a giant criminal enterprise, but you cannot seriously call them "never wrong". Markets are not all knowing or perfectly efficient or even right much of the time. Rather they are great, noisy oceans of human activity. Hope, fear and greed are powerful market movers. I would argue that emotions are more powerful than logic and that successful traders study psychology as well as charts.
Good luck with that "never wrong" thesis and thanks for the chuckle.
This is standard boilerplate.
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/050427/erhe.ob8-k.html
SWC is a palladium/platinum miner with questionable management. They are negatively impacted by rising energy prices as are all of the miners since mining is energy intensive. The better play on these metals is PAL and it has an ugly chart too. SWC made a profit in the 4th quarter but production declined and they gave poor guidance. Norilsk Nickel (Moscow) owns a controlling interest. I agree that it looks like a good short. But be wary of rising palladium prices that may salvage the share price on this dog.
GRS - does this one fit the definition of a boosher? Also, keep an eye on TGA today. They hit a decent well in Yemen, announced after hours yesterday. I own it and expect a good move up. The TGA chart is uggerly though.
Margin calls, news we can't get yet, or just panic.
Tomorrow the techs will be hit again. Today's earnings reports were awful. Look at the AH trades in IBM, RMBS, DELL, SUNW, RFMD... I realize that chartists tend to ignore fundamentals like earnings and valuations. Just throwing in my two cents. I wouldn't go long the QQQQs tomorrow morning with YOUR money.
AMD is looking strong.
The gold price will be affected by the trade balance (deficit) number released at 8:30 ET this morning. Then at 14:00 today we get the FOMC minutes which will affect currencies and gold by revealing how hawkish the FED was at the last meeting. Also at 14:00 the Treasury Budget number will be released showing the March deficit.
Briefing.com says:
Trade Balance - expected to be -59 billion, prior reading -58.3 billion.
Any number > 60 billion will be dollar negative and gold positive. A number < 59 billion will hurt gold, imo.
Briefing says that the Treasury budget number is expected to be a deficit of 69.8 billion.
Check out GRS for strongest gold/silver stock this month.
ABP is waiting on news. Oil is down now and so is natural gas. The EIA report this morning showed the first build into storage for natgas and that is an excuse to take some profits. It looks like a pause here. The XNG and OSX are red and the XOI is barely green. Volumes are light. There are some excellent posts on the fundamentals of the energy sector at the yahoo CWEI board. Look for the ones that have more than 10-15 recommendations.
Oil is back over 56 bucks this morning, the dollar is falling and the metals are up a bit. http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/gci/gciindices.asp
Thanks!. I looked at the headlines and flat missed that one.
VEXP - explain it to me, please. The number of outstanding shares is 268,000 using both MSN and Yahoo. The float is only 35k according to yahoo. So how did nearly 8 million shares trade today? The SEC filings are confusing, indicating millions of shares of preferred stock and warrants etc.
Nasdaq.com says there are 12,797,000 shares outstanding, which sounds much more reasonable. geesh, yahoo and MSN are awful...
LGOV - inked a deal to deliver oil to Shanghai Offshore Oil Group. This one could run for quite a while.
USEG has surged, if it can take out 8 bucks, 8.50 area comes into play
I think I heard about ERHE on this board first. Thanks!
There is a great deal of misinformation spreading on the chats about ANWR. Until we drill, there is no oil. Adjacent areas have oil, but nothing is certain until wells are drilled. Exploration is only permitted on about 8% of the ANWR refuge. If oil is found, actual development will take place on less than 1% of the refuge. Exploration could show any amount from zero to the 10-20 billion barrels that is speculated to be there. Current US imports are 10 million barrels per day of crude oil. Current US production is 5 million barrels per day. We get about 2 million barrels per day of liguids from natural gas. We get some increase from refining, a 42 gallon barrel of oil produces 44 gallons of product. We import nearly a million barrels of gasoline per day. All totaled, we use over 20 million barrels of hydrocarbons each and every day. The bottom line is that we need to develop every source and the potential for ANWR is huge. We have the technology to drill with very little impact to the environment and have demonstrated that ability for decades. I have seen it in Texas, Oklahoma, Lousiana, and the Gulf of Mexico where we have drilled thousands of wells. Some of the best fishing is under those big platforms in the Gulf. Existing production at Prudhoe has not harmed the wildlife. The Alaska pipeline has not harmed the environment. My advice to the environmental groups is "Go Look". Everything else is noise.
When are the WHT shares due to expire and become GG shares? GG has purchased over 80%of them already, so I'm curious.
I expect a gap up open and a nice run. It should be fun for a few days as the news spreads.
ERCH news is out... energy section of the Houston Chronicle.
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/energy/3082404
This should help ERHE fly tomorrow.
The President's speech was coincidental to the decline. Traders saw a new multi-year high in oil that failed to hold. They saw a double top on the CL chart. Then the XOM CEO came on CNBC and said that there was plenty of oil. Within 10 minutes of that CEO statement, XOM was hit by huge blocks of selling. One block was 14 million shares. That began the decline across the oil, gas and services sectors. This is the period of seasonal weakness and traders are selling and shorting expecting a decent decline. Also, traders are looking at storage numbers for oil and for natural gas, which are above last year and above the 5 yr averages. Tanker dayrates are dropping pretty hard.
The energy bulls are looking at weather and supply/demand to trump storage. Also, the bulls are interested in Matt Simmons and the theory that OPEC has hit maximum production. Non-OPEC oil production has been revised downward by the EIA. I expect this correction to be typical of a bull market, short and sharp.
DEZ - a nice little gold/silver miner, highly speculative, recovering from some recent share dilution. I own it and trade it.
or swing the group over to yahoo, no limit, no fees
As a temporary workaround, he can email you or me and we can post for him. He can have my limit.
That was hysterical.
lol, yes, a little bit...also picked up some more NTO on the dip.
That's good news. I have some NTO and am trying to catch a pull back on Yamana. Thanks
Which one did you mean? It is important when a stock is added to an index. I have some PAAS that has benefitted a bit from being added to the XAU. I'm still getting used to these boards where it's all technicals all the time. I am more of a canslim trader.
you know yer killin' me, callin' NTO an energy stock....
lol
ERHC - A long article, history of the region etc.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/weekend/story/0,3605,1321715,00.html
Here is the most relevant part, pertaining to your question:
The international community was not there to lend a hand, however, when São Tomé made its most crucial decision: in 1997, an unknown, Houston-based Nigerian company called ERHC, which had never drilled a barrel of oil, offered just $5m for - and got - exclusive exploration rights to all São Tomé's waters. It was described as one of the best - or worst - deals in history, and the World Bank declared it unfair. But no money was paid and the deal looked set to fall apart until Sir Emeka Offor, a Nigerian businessman closely associated with the late Nigerian dictator Sami Abacha - who stole an estimated $4bn when in power - bought ERHC, renamed it Chrome, brought in ExxonMobil, involved the Nigerian government and proposed a new agreement in return for lucrative concession rights. When Exxon struck oil, Chrome/ERHC became worth about $600m overnight. Nigeria then disputed São Tomé's territorial limits. Fearing it would lose everything, desperate for cash, the then president caved in and agreed a 60:40 split in Nigeria's favour.
Meanwhile, Chrome/ERHC and Exxon also negotiated preferential rights. By the time the first licences were bid for last November, São Tomé had effectively given away much of its oil-rich territory, handed a barely existent Nigerian company almost 20% of what was left, and given up most of its rights to down payments. However, November 23 2003 was still the greatest day in São Tomé's uneventful history. Twenty companies bid a combined $506m for seven exploration blocks, leading the government to expect more than $200m in signature payments. So far, only one contract has been awarded, to ChevronTexaco.
São Toméans are now realising that they will see next to no money for many years. The first boreholes will be drilled next year, but the companies say oil will not flow until 2011. In another controversial deal, the companies negotiated the right to recoup their investments first, receiving 80% of all the oil money for the first five years of production. In other words, São Tomé stands to make only 20% of a 40% share (8%) between 2011 and 2017.
That is an interesting comparison, since both make money by contract drilling or joint ventures with individual investors. The volume and price on AZGS indicate a possibility of some news not yet released to the public. Rig workers, suppliers, know how things are progressing long before the press release. Or it may just be the laggards getting some attention in this sector. NGAS has a pretty small float, 14 million. The P&F chart shows oil going to 64.
Richard Russell says that M-3, the broad money supply increased a whopping $43.5 billion in the single week ended Feb 21. That should help the precious metals. I picked up some WTZ last week and am watching GRS. DEZ diluted their shares in a private placement, but have a good chart. Check out the weekly chart on GOLD, (Randgold Resources).
IDCO - any opinions on this one?
I don't want to talk you out of anything, just offer another view that may help. I bought APA last August at 43. I sold a piece recently at 53 and watched it go to 63. In 2003, APA was 70, split 2 for 1 and has kept on going. A family account that I help manage had AHC from the low 30's, just sold it in the 90's. It has hit 100 or so. DVN still has a single digit PE and could easily go to 80 bucks from here. Just a few thoughts that might help, or might not. The energy patch is catching a wave just like the i-net stuff in '99. The huge, glaring, overwhelming difference is that most of the energy stocks actually have earnings and many still have low p/e ratios and high relative cash flow. I lost a bunch of money on TMR, bought them a flea collar, and plan to make my money back IF they can get their act together and hit some more wells. It's a great sector that is going to run for years with short, sharp pull backs.
Incidentally, I thank you for sharing your work. I made money on BIPH and may make some more. Your charts are appreciated.
I'll clarify my thinking a bit more. FXEN has run up already on speculation that they will report significant production. So far they have none. I cannot overemphasize how important that is, even in a "blow off" scenario. It sounds like CPTC in some ways. They need to announce results or face the same kind of sell off that hit CPTC and also TMR last fall. The TMR chart is instructive. They drill for gas and oil, have real production (greater than IVAN and FXEN put together)and real earnings and they were bid up last year on speculation. They reported that during the third quarter, they failed to maintain production. They made money, just not as much as the speculators expected. The ensuing sell off took them quickly from 9 to 5. TGA just had something similar happen when they announced two dusters in Yemen, even though on an annual basis, they increased reserves and production. I made 1.40 of that TGA drop in less than an hour on a fast short. I am familiar with speculation in the oil patch and this is what to expect if results are delayed too long or if they are less than expected. The folks running IVAN are smart. They have figured out how to add the right words to their profile, things like GTL, CHINA, and coal to oil. I agree with you that this is at least an interesting speculative play short term.
But frankly, I am keeping an order ready to short FXEN real hard if their news comes in less than stellar. That drop from 16 to 13, in one day, back in January could happen again and based on their failure to report any production, I think it the most likely scenario. I have no position in either yet, just waiting on the news...
NTO is a miner, not an energy company. It's principal asset is its 12.5% interest in the Bajo del Alumbrera gold/copper mine in the Catamarca Province, Argentina (from yahoo). I like the stock chart and own some, but it ain't energy.
IVAN is a junior gas/oil explorer that was once the object of Thom Calandra's pumping. It still has a momo following. IVAN production is tiny, 2,200 boe/d. They have lots of projects that may or may not pan out. You can make money trading this one, but keep in mind that you aren't trading real production and earnings, yet. The most interesting thing going for IVAN, imo, is the demonstration plant converting heavy crude into light crude. I hope goes commercial for them. FXEN is another long shot. They are a play on finding oil in Poland and have not announced production figures yet. They say that they are going to bring a couple of wells into commercial production, but no numbers are out that I can find.
Compare the charts and fundamentals of IVAN and FXEN to CNR, TGA, DVN and APA just for kicks and use varying time frames. I like and own the last 4 as well as PGH in the energy sector.
http://stockcharts.com/webcgi/perf.html?FXEN,$wtic,cnr,tga,ivan,dvn,apa
That article sounds interesting, but the link won't work. Please help!
Their new year begins on the new moon, Feb 9th for them Feb 8th for the US. The celebration runs 15 days, so I'd give them until the 23-24th.
When is the shareholder meeting? tia