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Re: bugsplat post# 8744

Thursday, 03/10/2005 12:29:22 PM

Thursday, March 10, 2005 12:29:22 PM

Post# of 33450
The President's speech was coincidental to the decline. Traders saw a new multi-year high in oil that failed to hold. They saw a double top on the CL chart. Then the XOM CEO came on CNBC and said that there was plenty of oil. Within 10 minutes of that CEO statement, XOM was hit by huge blocks of selling. One block was 14 million shares. That began the decline across the oil, gas and services sectors. This is the period of seasonal weakness and traders are selling and shorting expecting a decent decline. Also, traders are looking at storage numbers for oil and for natural gas, which are above last year and above the 5 yr averages. Tanker dayrates are dropping pretty hard.
The energy bulls are looking at weather and supply/demand to trump storage. Also, the bulls are interested in Matt Simmons and the theory that OPEC has hit maximum production. Non-OPEC oil production has been revised downward by the EIA. I expect this correction to be typical of a bull market, short and sharp.

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