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Thanksformusic, RE: Question/comment for you -- A broker friend of mine picked Tuesday as a low point for the S&P, then back up. Your thoughts?
I need to see the earnings. Were going to have a month of them. And I don't know who's got what. From talking to various companies it seems that many are backloading for the end of the year.
I don't think were going to have any major runs in the first half. I'll take a harder look after the earnings are out.
Dishfan, Well there is overlap to be sure into fund and tech. Depends where you draw the line. Below would be standard boiler plate of what financial players look at when coming up with a valuation but it's all based on the cash. CSCO was a good one for that in the late 90's
Would include accounts payable and receivable, asset book value, capital expenses, cash flow, cash on hand, debt load including commercial paper, depreciation, dividends, ebitda. equity, good will, gross and net margins. Liabilities short and long, patents and value of, price to book, price to earnings and price to sales, peg, stock options, R and D costs and taxes. And I would guess worldwide markets for some.
You can get a valuation base or company worth from this. Or determine a over or under valued stock based on what is not showing in the earnings. The basic difference is the fundamentalist track what they believe will be, financial players track what is.
JimLur, regarding TA.
RE: " As you both know I'm not into TA as far as IDCC goes and I wonder if both of you are comfortable trying to use TA to decide at this point is IDCC has value?
Well for me I like to use all three types, technical, fundamental and financial. With I suppose financial being claimed by both sides, or at least used by both sides. Peter Lynch's claim to fame was the use of financial.
RE: "What does a aroon, three black candles, and MACD know about the real world and what deals may happen?"
It can't be used for the timing of deals, nor can the other two. What it can do for you is measure, as a whole what everybody is doing. The why would be fundamental, the what would be technical.
RE: "I'm not trying to be negative or smart but TA sometimes don't make sense"
Agreed. It's not foolproof. Think of it as a snap shot, a picture of the stock price history and based on what you see, what the likely movement will be from there, short term or long based on strength. And let me add the picture can change, and does, i.e. oversold or over bought, trends and their strength. And no,it's does not add extra for expected news.
RE: "At this point I don't think IDCC should be charted like GE or GM because we aren't on the map yet."
I have to disagree. The same analysis that one would use on the Dow can be used on a penny stock. There is no change in the T/A, that's consent. It's the expectations. The supply and demand theory would still apply, as would the Dow theory. However the amount that would be learned would be different.
Let's try and add some color here.
To do so I think one needs to perhaps compare fundamental vs technical at the base.
Fundamental would track the business model and workout the future business plan. Is it working? Do they have a good game plan? What is the company saying about themselves and how much can be believed {and let me add in general terms here, not IDCC specific} What can be expected for future earnings. Do they have the proper management to get there? What's the management history been like, new old, turnovers and quality of management. Is it high risk? Is it in a strong sector? Do they have a something special, different? And can they sell it and how much can they sell of it etc.
Bottom line, are they going somewhere and the reasons why.
Fundamentalists focus on why the value is what it is, the projected value and the fundamental reasons for that increase. They base their view on what is known and where they believe it's going. It requires a thorough understanding of the business model. They'll stop on a dime if anything in the business model changes until it can be reviewed. The weakness then is not having a thorough understanding or filling the voids with analyst recommendations. {this is just my opinion but I should state that analysts and I don't play well together}
Anyway a standard for buy and hold investing.
Technical analysis is a tool to measure the fair market value of a stock, or a market. And it's roots come from simple supply and demand. It would include The Dow theory and cycles, strong and weak, interdependence on the markets in general and out of market factors, dollar, bonds wars etc.
The Tech side would include such things as bull and bear runs, trends, support and res. lines, volume, momentum, and price movement to strength. Money flow, selling pressure, over bought, oversold etc.
Pure T/a's aren’t worried about what the company is making, just measuring what everybody else is doing about it. It measures the buyers and the sellers, the ups and downs and with little thought, why. From this you can get entry level positions, close positions and yes, long positions with weighted risks.
Fundamentalists in a nutshell follow what the company is doing.
Technicians follow what the investors are doing. And that would be all forms of investors.
I'd like to say a few words here so I'll address this to all.
My read on the markets right now is it's set up for a fall. Dow, S&P , Nas mid cap and small cap are rolling at the 50 mark .Vix is about as low as it can go. For those that trade this is a big factor to us. We have the start of earnings reports starting next week and the markets, {if I can get away with grouping like this} have the "you better show me something real " dog and pony days are done look to them. Again not over sold or over bought, but dead center in between. Some us that have been doing this awhile call it alignment. Lets hope for the good earning reports here. If so, it will break the back of the bear. If not it wouldn't be much longer anyway. There is no projecting this, as the reports will be the driver. The quicker the read the better the results, either up or down.
IDCC is also at the 50, btw when I say 50 I'm talking about relative strength index.
Which bring me to my point of posting. I have been running across many posters, emails asking is this a good time to trade? I hope this comes across as friendly as I mean it to be.
If you haven't traded before, now is not the time to learn. I mean this nicely.
Hold the shares.
If the minute you sell you start looking for a lower price to buy right back in. Or get nervous waiting for the price to drop.
Hold the shares.
If you don't know with reasonable certainty which direction the share price is going and the likely area of where it will wind up.
Hold the shares.
If you think your going to make a fortune in trading, but haven't lost a fortune by trading yet.
Hold the shares.
It takes a long time to get good at learning how to trade. It is not easy. And it's a time consumer to get it right. If you think you're going to become brilliant over night.
Hold the shares.
Right now if you're already holding there is no need to trade. No law says you have to get greedy.
Hold the shares.
I would guess you would have a very happy Christmas if you do.
But maybe you prefer trade, perhaps you get in right, or not. If not, you will not doubt chase it back up putting more money in that you didn't plan on, just about then it will correct back down for a brief time, you unfortunately just took a big loss by not getting it right the first time, can't afford to take another so you sell again, and at that point the market will own you. You will no doubt blame the MM's or the other traders, the street, the big boys or perhaps some one on this board. But the true is you thought you were smarter than those people and you decided to become brilliant overnight. You placed the orders. Not them.
There is an old saying, not necessarily true ,but, the market doesn't make any money, every time somebody makes a buck, and somebody loses one. That's especially true with trading as the better ones are taking from the poorer ones. The longs are just holding.
In this case with IDCC I would add " a bird in the hand"
All this above is just an opinion, but if you haven't traded before you may wish to put some thought to it.
Anyway just a few words, nothing more.
BTW It doesn't mean IDCC has to go down or up. Absent of news it should follow the market however. This is not a negative things here, if fact the best thing to do with this one is close your eyes and walk away for a while with whatever you can hold or add.
OT Ken, Minn leading 3 to 1 after 2. Life is good!
OT TC, you maybe right. I have no idea what the other traders, longs, shorts, option players margin players MO players have done. I'm sure some traders have lost money and I sure some longs have given up with losses and same with the shorts and other type players. It's a market of many people, all with different time's lines and goals.
My point was there are many OTHER ways to make your investment grow besides just going long. I here from people who have shorted, and they have made money, other traders and they have made money. The longs that bought right certainly have made money. There's not one single way, it's all good. For me I like to trade to increase my share load. I don't like using my own money. For me it has worked. Perhaps for others they have done better or worse, I don't know. But what I do know is proper trading has been better than holding for me. And I do KNOW I'm far from the only one on this board who trades. Attacking people who are trying a different approach is common place, but if a person steps back, maybe just maybe they could learn something. I do all the time. This is not a hidden message directed at any one person, including you TC, I'm speaking in general terms here so please take it that way
Have a good night
TC "advice benefit the whole" was responding too only broken 80. Did not add to all.
Look TC this board is certainly controlled by the longs. A very large group with aligned goals. To hold and wait for the big play. If a person is doing anything other than holding and waiting they quickly will be shouted down by the group.
I have no problem with that. But there is other actions going on day to day. The trader's long or short, MO players, shorts option players and whatever else is out there. There the ones making the price go up, or go down. The longs have no interaction with day to day or month to month price levels. They are just holding, no effect. If played right any of the groups mentioned can be right. But the longs by far have the larger group. Most others work as individuals without aligned goals. Just their own.
Broken80, Nothing wrong with taking profits. Nothing. That’s the same goal EVERYBODY has.
If one was to buy and sell several times,or more vs holding long and trading just once the only thing worth discussing is which way was the better,or more profitable one. For the last 1000 days or so trading has had the better run. Most longs who have held for that period were waiting for the big break that has not occurred as of yet. The longs are up. todate, but those who have been trading are up far more and can still settle in for the spikes to come ,or play them. Nothing has been missed if you have been trading. Nothing.
Investing is not a team sport.
Wouldn't that be down from the 27th, not the 26th and UP from the 1st?
Of course you you what to talk longer than a 2week period then we could add up from 13 to 19 1 month. May be you would like even longer term like from 7 or 5.
BTW what do you make of the low volume today. Do you think people are waiting so they can sell at a lower price.LOL
08-Apr-2003 19.6500 289400
07-Apr-2003 19.7300 932578
04-Apr-2003 19.7900 556086
03-Apr-2003 19.8000 1130886
02-Apr-2003 19.8100 4563996
01-Apr-2003 18.7500 5407722
31-Mar-2003 22.6300 1339530
28-Mar-2003 22.6900 1042481
27-Mar-2003 23.3100 2085207
26-Mar-2003 22.5600 2601328
revlis, he's not much of an investor, terrible trader, but a great discussant of any thing negative concerning this company.
My theory is he may have won a little in the market place by sheer luck and now thinks he's god's gift to investors, that only he is able to decide good from bad. And all should listen.
You meet all kinds on the boards, and for that I keep my guard up when ever I'm here. Some even have two, three names and have conversations with themselves!
To much playing . not enough thinking going on for the most part.
Once,
RE : I've been amazingly correct and my phenomenal financial success supports that fact.
Really! If I find the time I will remind you just how false that statement is.
RE:Plus, my IDCC trading activity has netted me around $24,000 in pre-tax profits, not as good as some but enough to show that I haven't been consistently wrong about IDCC's stock performance.
And each time you sold to soon as I have told you, you make it sound as you nailed it, when what you really did was sale for pennies on the dollar.
RE: I specifically predicted the Ericsson settlement would be for "much less" than $100 million and I have been consistent in this prediction in everything I have written about it. I would say $34 million fits my predictions very well.
I've give that one if you posted it. I also posted 35mil a half a year ago or so on rb and Yahoo boards if they settled. They did but I didn't know they would. Funny how you did.
Once you are not the great investor, you certainly, and I mean certainly not a good trader, you may have gotten lucky once with Qcom. But so did a lot of others including me. Since that time I haven't seen anything that would make me think you’re an investor. And that's what this is all about isn't it.
"my phenomenal financial success supports" again do you need me to remind you just how wrong you have been?
True, just some traders out there now, and if there not nimble enough they could get burned.
Rmarchma, Good post with a constructive direction and a win/win solution.
Well after reading the posts this weekend it appears there are more than few that will be selling.
Good.
Since I got stopped out I have a boat load of money. Bought some Friday but need a lot more.
Load me up.
Loop re: "This is not the way it occurred and we were informed that the Ericy license did not in fact close the rate argument. The reason for identifying the named companies was simple. Nok and IDCC knew that a larger company would seek and obtain a reasonable rate and both parties agreed to be bound by same. There should be no need for acceptance or rejection periods or arbitrations. Nok selected door number 3 and they should be stuck with it. This was the way it was represented to the shareholders and this is apparently not the way it is"
From rmarchma post 17761 - " From subsequent clarification by IR, the Ericy/Sony resolution does trigger Nokia and Samsung's 2G and 2.5G royalty rates for the TDMA-based GSM, GPRS, TDMA, EDGE, and PDC/PHS standards. Nokia and Samsung need to agree to these 2G/2.5G royalty rates so established in the Ericy/Sony resolution, within some permitted negotiating boundaries, or face arbitration"
From sailfree's 18035 " HOWARD GOLDBERG: Let me lay out how it works, Tom, and I'll answer your question. There is a period that is specified in terms of a specific number of days that I'm not at liberty to divulge, but as you can imagine, what we agreed on was a commercially reasonable period for review and discussion that is narrow enough to accommodate our needs and expansive enough to accommodate the needs of the other side. It is not a tremendously long period"
Commercially reasonable period being the focus here. 30/60/90? We don't know but sending Nok a bill and saying pay it isn't how the business world works. Finalization of contacts and whatever addendum's that would need to be added from the 99 agreement would be expected to take a little time.
Again the key is in rmarchma post " From subsequent clarification by IR, the Ericy/Sony resolution does trigger Nokia and Samsung's 2G and 2.5G royalty rates" They had a binding contract and the trigger has occurred . Ericy was the trigger. Nokia agreed to abide per your number 3. So did Samsung. With Ericy now paying and signed, MFL's for 2G can be finalized. Nokia only way to go is pay or renege on the agreement entirely. And that would be bad business.
Well Loop, now this isn't right.
For some odd reason everybody has left the house and I find myself with a little time. And what do I find but a too all post.
I don't think we see things eye to eye on many things, for this post I'll put this on the backside burner.
I can't believe for one minute that anybody asking you to sell your shares could be taken seriously by you. The big boys who you mentioned don't speak for you do they? No I think not.
You don't come across as person who jumps through hoops nor as an order taker. Not much of a hoopjumper myself so I'll get to the point.
The absents of you from this board would be a large loss that,frankly I don't think could be filled. Now I understand someone like spree would love to try and fill it, can you imagine what a failure that would be, I would have to start shorting just out of respect for investors everywhere. No, I think we need the original here. Correct that,I know we need the original here.
Put some thought to it, and reconsider.
Nuff posts for me, enjoy your day.eom
Knock yourself out, kid.
AMS, regarding your "I believe the share price will hit $17"
Not without the big boys selling and they're noting going to sell over someone using their stock option.
They're looking at the earnings picture, not stock option grants.
Spree. Sorry I have to ignore you now. You take care.
Thanks Bull, don't know about the longer horns part but I would guess it probably was a bigger factor for both of us in the bell bottom days than it is today. LOL. Why am I laughing
GreedAintBad, Thank you, I'm going to go it a go.eom
Sophist, Agreed, and again not all that unexpected. The company has a stock option grant program. These shares are coming from that program. As I mentioned in the post to zitboy this has nothing to do with lack of faith IMO. More to the point, or yours, is a form of compensation.
Zitboy, regarding Monday, perhaps, perhaps not. The sale wasn't that big of a deal. The shorts that I know who play this one don't short for any length of time. A week would be a long time for about half of them. In and out, in and out, over and over. The MO players have left, I would think at this point. Most of the longs I know held. This won't cause them to sell. Regarding the sale. They had to sell sometime, and right now isn't the worst time I can think of. Stuff like this passes with no lasting effect other than the share load. Shouldn't be the same effect of that the 10k had. Took out my stops on that one.
The key for me is why they are selling, not when. People read this as lack of faith, which is not the case here in my opinion. I understand taking some profits, not the same as other types of insider's sales.
Haven't had the proper time to study everything yet. Ronny posted something this morning that will save me a great deal of time. Just starting to get into it a little tonight but after reading " from subsequent CLARIFICATION" from the post that was on my desk when I was at work, I called the broker and told him to fill at anything under 19.80. Bought a great deal.
Don't know haw far I'll get tonight with Ron's stuff. Also need to review the 10k again. Tomorrow's my birthday and apparently my plans have already been made, just as well been a long week.
My first thought is if Nokia is going to wait on the 3G license or be the first one in. Depends on the deal I suppose. And if 2G would be blended in. I would think it may be worth a little less to IDCC from Nokia to play that card. It would go a long way. Especially since they get the pass on TDD anyway. Again lots to study.
I have no idea what your talking about, nor do I really care.
You have yourself a swell evening now.
The 90k today --1)Part of a grant of 190,000 options which vested as follows: 31,666 on 12/31/97; 31,666 on 6/30/98; 31,667 on 12/31/98; 31,667 on 6/30/99; 31,667 on 12/31/99 and 31,667 on 6/30/00.(2)Granted pursuant to the Company's Non-Qualified Stock Option Plan.
Not all that unexpected. Looks like he's holding 100k from the grant.
Anyboduy know when they would have expired?
zitboy, good play. There's more out there.
Good luck
sluggo, what do you mean phoney,LOL. Have a night. eom
F6 re: we don't need any more of your (or "house of cards" dunce's) self-annointedly superior knowledge
Sorry, I thought YOU would need all you can get
Later
tHANKS rON , HAVEN'T HAD A CHANCE TO READ BUT PEOPLE BROUGHT COPY'S TO MY DESK - CALLED BROKER AND BOUGHT SIGHT UNSEEN. SORRY FOR THE CAPS/ RUSHED
Out of bal. No trades. Looks like somebody is using 500 shares to promote, but it open in the 19's.
Once, this is why it should never ever be a team sport.
Trading like lemmings
The pack-like behavior of stock traders has reached extremes not seen since 1987.
April 3, 2003: 1:16 PM EST
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Staff Writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The Tilt-A-Whirl has nothing on the global markets lately, where the speed with which traders have been shifting positions has been enough to make anybody's stomach spin.
One moment the war is going poorly, sending cash pouring into safe-haven assets, like government bonds and gold, jacking the price of oil higher, hammering stocks and the U.S. dollar. The next, the war is going well again, and all these "war trades" that have been put on get suddenly unwound. With traders running from one side of the boat to the other, one can hardly say that global markets are on an even keel.
Making matters even worse, the traders in different markets are all taking cues from one another, creating a magnifying effect on each move. Oil goes up so stocks go down so bonds go higher so oil goes up some more.
"It shows you that everything is trading-desk oriented," said Mizuho Securities USA strategist John Vail. "They tend to move in packs."
This behavior, where everything trades so cleanly with (or against) everything else, has rarely been so pronounced. The 10-year Treasury note and stocks, for instance, are negatively correlated (when stocks go up, the 10-year goes down, and vice versa) to the strongest degree of the past seven years.
"This sloshing back and forth between Treasurys and stocks happens whenever there's a panic," said Brian Reynolds, fixed income and economic strategist at Kirlin Securities
I guess what a person needs to do is break down the last couple 10k's and last couple CC's and see what really is happening here.
Near as I can figure the company gives away dollars to keep nickels. But the trading is good.
spree, sharp isn't a good enough reason to get me to buy long again. Signed or not.
once,
RE: You say you're not worried about Sharp?
Correct
RE:Did Sharp renew their expired license
No
RE:That was a major revenue stream for IDCC.
Yes
RE:It doesn't trouble you that Sharp is now refusing to pay royalties as they did in the past?
No
RE:Whose side are you on anyway?
Side?
Not a team event.
Rmarchma, JimLur or Loop, if you can find the time. Still very unclear on the 10k. What I read there and what I'm reading here , well it appears I read too fast and certainly have missed something. Have not had proper time to study this in regards to license needed/not needed to trigger the MFL's. 2 g locked in but triggered from a new3 g license, or whatever. . . . . I'm sure you have spoken on these issues but I also haven't had the time to keep up with this board.
Where do we stand in your opinion on Nok/Samsung?
Not worried about Sharp. Not worried about Rip. Or for that matter shorts, or options plays.
Just looking for a few thoughts on the status of the MFL's.
TIA
Broken80, well right now were going nowhere as the vol is reduced. I offer a chart with the focus on that very issue.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=11049&u=gejim&a=lightcharts&id=171
blue, So are they going ahead with the payments for 2G then?
3G can wait, I'm in no rush there as most phones are still 2 G anyway.
well blue that's good news, could you point that confirmed section/post/source out to me. And thanks
the 10k appeared to be talking 2 G only and it seemed clear cut.