JimLur, regarding TA.
RE: " As you both know I'm not into TA as far as IDCC goes and I wonder if both of you are comfortable trying to use TA to decide at this point is IDCC has value?
Well for me I like to use all three types, technical, fundamental and financial. With I suppose financial being claimed by both sides, or at least used by both sides. Peter Lynch's claim to fame was the use of financial.
RE: "What does a aroon, three black candles, and MACD know about the real world and what deals may happen?"
It can't be used for the timing of deals, nor can the other two. What it can do for you is measure, as a whole what everybody is doing. The why would be fundamental, the what would be technical.
RE: "I'm not trying to be negative or smart but TA sometimes don't make sense"
Agreed. It's not foolproof. Think of it as a snap shot, a picture of the stock price history and based on what you see, what the likely movement will be from there, short term or long based on strength. And let me add the picture can change, and does, i.e. oversold or over bought, trends and their strength. And no,it's does not add extra for expected news.
RE: "At this point I don't think IDCC should be charted like GE or GM because we aren't on the map yet."
I have to disagree. The same analysis that one would use on the Dow can be used on a penny stock. There is no change in the T/A, that's consent. It's the expectations. The supply and demand theory would still apply, as would the Dow theory. However the amount that would be learned would be different.
Let's try and add some color here.
To do so I think one needs to perhaps compare fundamental vs technical at the base.
Fundamental would track the business model and workout the future business plan. Is it working? Do they have a good game plan? What is the company saying about themselves and how much can be believed {and let me add in general terms here, not IDCC specific} What can be expected for future earnings. Do they have the proper management to get there? What's the management history been like, new old, turnovers and quality of management. Is it high risk? Is it in a strong sector? Do they have a something special, different? And can they sell it and how much can they sell of it etc.
Bottom line, are they going somewhere and the reasons why.
Fundamentalists focus on why the value is what it is, the projected value and the fundamental reasons for that increase. They base their view on what is known and where they believe it's going. It requires a thorough understanding of the business model. They'll stop on a dime if anything in the business model changes until it can be reviewed. The weakness then is not having a thorough understanding or filling the voids with analyst recommendations. {this is just my opinion but I should state that analysts and I don't play well together}
Anyway a standard for buy and hold investing.
Technical analysis is a tool to measure the fair market value of a stock, or a market. And it's roots come from simple supply and demand. It would include The Dow theory and cycles, strong and weak, interdependence on the markets in general and out of market factors, dollar, bonds wars etc.
The Tech side would include such things as bull and bear runs, trends, support and res. lines, volume, momentum, and price movement to strength. Money flow, selling pressure, over bought, oversold etc.
Pure T/a's aren’t worried about what the company is making, just measuring what everybody else is doing about it. It measures the buyers and the sellers, the ups and downs and with little thought, why. From this you can get entry level positions, close positions and yes, long positions with weighted risks.
Fundamentalists in a nutshell follow what the company is doing.
Technicians follow what the investors are doing. And that would be all forms of investors.
AI
