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Same. The next support level is around .054 at the 200 week moving average, if "support levels" are still relevant to this ticker. :P
ENZC's daily chart has been in breakdown for 8 days now. (Going by RSI.) Just like breakouts, breakdowns usually don't last long. The longest breakdown I've seen this year was 24 days, during which the ticker in question slipped into breakdown on the weekly chart and lost an additional 90% of its value. For ENZC, with so much red and nothing catalyzing until later in January, breaking down on the weekly is indeed a possibility, in which case that .02 short profit target my software keeps calculating may actually be a lot closer to the bottom than .054.
The gamble is, whenever this finally reverses, it has potential for at least a dead cat bounce that might pop pretty hard. It's way oversold and there's still a lot of retail interest to take advantage of the oversoldness to buy for a flip or to hold thru 2022.
Down here buyers' dollars stretch further. We're seeing slightly increased buy volume but real volume (buy or sell) hasn't come in yet. Price could keep trickling lower or suddenly move fast in either direction. Remember the rule "volume precedes price" ie higher volume can legitimize a security's price action.
Hourly charts show this is ready to move - bollinger bands are super narrow. Bulls failed a breakout test at today's open, which shows weakness, but there's still time to rally. I'm personally expecting a more sizeable move downward today or tomorrow toward the .054 range.
Traders have today and tomorrow to make their moves since the markets close Friday for Christmas.
GreenLight's covid treatment is mRNA and ENZC's is monoclonal antibodies. ENZC's antibodies target covid immutable sites so in theory its mAbs would work against most or all covid variants. Two different technologies, and there's room in the markets for both.
For both companies, it's critical to deliver results in clinical trials while the market opportunity is there.
Right on! I was using the GreenLight link because it shows another Samsung bio partnership. The GreenLight PR reads a lot like the ENZC partnership announcement did. A manufacturing deal for clinical trials and then a forward-looking blurb to introduce Samsung's audience to the partner company, with Samsung providing for-hire CDMO services to each company.
Well, it's still a big plus that they're willing to work with ENZC! :) If ENZC can ever get its product to market, manufacturing shouldn't be a hurdle. Better than routing thru a smaller lab in Bulgaria. (And no offense to partners like Rosetta; but Samsung is objectively better for worldwide mass production.)
The ball is still in ENZC's court to actually deliver on a viable drug.
It looks to me like Samsung is positioning itself as a go-to manufacturer of bio companies' products, in particular for the purpose of clinical trials and FDA approval.
Samsung Biologics (KRX: 207940.KS) is a fully integrated CDMO offering state-of-the-art contract development, manufacturing, and laboratory testing services. With proven regulatory approvals, the largest capacity, and the fastest throughput, Samsung Biologics is an award-winning partner of choice and is uniquely able to support the development and manufacturing of biologics products at every stage of the process while meeting the evolving needs of biopharmaceutical companies worldwide. For more information, visit www.samsungbiologics.com . source
If it's a sizeable gap, maybe! You'll sometimes see gaps at the end of breakouts, same with breakdowns, in those cases it can be a last burst of energy when buyers or sellers are too euphoric for their own good.
Weekend charts and TA pack:
Charts are just a tool.
News trumps charts and DD is important.
Ignore charts if you don't wanna see charts. :)
I make these for myself as an exercise, am happy to share.
GLTA~!
Daily (and a blank daily for comparison):
Hourly:
Weekly:
Thank you for sharing these insights, they're always appreciated! Am curious what they have in mind since they seem to be running way more aggressive cliff drops in the last few weeks, and have now let the daily RSI fall into the 23s (this is the lowest RSI I can see as far back as my ticker history shows, all the way through 2015)
My hope is they're done loading and are setting this up to jump start a big run to coincide with a news drop. Though that would be overt market manipulation. GLTA
I've been burned most of the year trying to buy the bottom. I'm also getting burned holding core shares through thick or thin.
It'll pop out of this breakdown for a dead cat bounce at some point, which would be a great opportunity to flip, but otherwise it's a hot potato until there's proper news that drives sustained high volume. GLTY
Ty for sharing his tweet,
Onwards and upwards. The only time we should ever look back is to see how far we have come and what has been accomplished. #ENZC No looking back now. When the caterpillar thinks the world is over, it became a butterfly. #onwardsandupwardsnolookingback
It makes me think of what was happening with gamestop and amc and various others around the turn of the year. Hedge fund guys were naked shorting (creating shares out of thin air) to drive companies into bankruptcy, but thus had assumed infinite risk. Reddit and twitter beat them at their game by mobbing together to buy shares on select meme stocks.
On the books, it doesn't appear ENZC is heavily shorted, so if the MMs are using naked shorts, they would be periodically short selling to ladder down the price, covering the same day, avoiding any share deficit and stopping would-be retail mobs cold.
But there are other reasons (economy, company performance, tax season) why this selloff could actually be organic, as well as the possibility of parties we don't know about yet dumping shares. Hard to say since a wide swath of the OTC is unusually red right now.
The audit has been due and proceeding 'without issues' for most of this year. I wouldn't count on its delivery until ENZC's lawsuits are sorted out so the company can document who controls what shares. (Lawsuits are a presumed holdup, there could be other reasons as well/instead.)
I could probably find a better PR but here they are in March talking as if the audit result is imminent.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/enzolytics-finalizes-documentation-international-medical-130000414.html
FYI, the short profit target (auto computed by my TA software) is .02
This is way oversold and should probably get some good bounces on the way down. And there's no guarantee it'll get all the way to the target. But it seems there's no known news catalyst until maybe January and no big money flowing in.
200 week moving average is at .0537 so mid nickels are probably its next stop. This is in breakdown on daily RSI and breakdowns typically only last a few days before reversal. GLTA
Thanks! I hadn't even heard about that one. What are the other two? (Googling for them as well)
Good info guys, thanks for helping with the DD about Livingston and convertible shares.
On the one hand, some seem to think the trade pattern this year can be explained by toxic lenders or other big parties liquidating shares. Others seem to think they already liquidated. Looks like it's still anybody's guess!
Looks like Livingston had a cap on how many shares they could hold at once, and the disclosures show no new conversions since October 2020. Those are both positive signs.
There's a statement from one of the disclosures that "most of the existing convertible debt has been exchanged for equity instruments that have a two-year conversion clause to postpone conversions for the next two years." (I'm lacking a source link but I can find it later if necessary.)
That sounds great and if everyone is still honoring that agreement, and "most" really means most, there shouldn't be many new conversions for about another year.
But I did the math last night and between Sept 2018 and Oct 2020, ENZC issued 1,165,021,256 mostly unrestricted shares to Livingston Asset Management per https://sec.report/otc/financial-report/270351/Corrected-Annual-Report-12-31-2020.pdf
That's over half the current float. (2,141,602,954) https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/enzc/security
Those shares are already unrestricted, so Livingston isn't prevented from selling for two years. Surely Henry Sargent sold some of them leading up to 2021. But surely he hadn't sold all of them before the big run in late 2020? How many might he have left or is 10 months enough time to liquidate so many?
I think it means 251.2 million shares were locked and sometime within the last 10 months they got unlocked, and can now be traded with the rest of the common shares. (So, whoever owns them is now free to dump them if they don't want to hold.)
Lo and behold, the last 10 months have been ENZC's massive bear run. Between Feb 8 and Dec 8 there were 5,651,468,854 shares traded in total volume. (source) So enough have changed hands for anyone dumping to have possibly almost finished - but obviously other people bought and sold too, and there were flippers all year, so it's anyone's guess how close the diluters are to exhausting their shares or if there are others dumping too. (looking at you Livingston Asset Management with over a billion unrestricted shares between 2018 and late 2020...and Dannie Zhabilov with 211 million unrestricted shares this year)
Timing 101 talked about this some too: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=167016707
If they believe in the tech as well, I don't see why they wouldn't try to make money on the way down AND on the way back up. :)
I think it'll have another mega-run, hopefully early next year. I bet MMs and hedge funds will be perfectly happy to ride it up, but the company needs to drop something substantial to catalyze. While ENZC is busy working toward having some deliverables, flippers and short sellers may as well trade in the meantime.
They can pull the football for small gains every few days, while generally trending price down, and steadily accumulating every selloff. It'll run on its own when the company finally delivers something substantial, and MMs can make good money if they don't get caught by surprise and have to cover too many shorts.
They have almost nothing to lose maximizing on investors' greed and optimism since catalyzing news is most likely pretty far out.
A lot of the price movement has been on relatively tiny volume. The float is 2,141,602,954 shares. So the 30-day average volume of 12,126,889 (363,806,670 over 30 days) is a drop in the bucket but still took the price from a high of around .154 to today's low around .07.
17% of the float moved the price over 54% down in this time period, not even accounting for flippers who rebought and resold along the way.
I agree this doesn't look like toxic debt / prior lenders considering this year's disclosures. The price movement does, but if they're dumping mass amounts of shares imo we should see a lot higher volume.
Still, a curious thought is what if the toxic debt / prior lenders finished their conversions a few years ago but still kept shares to sell in 2021? It doesn't sound like how they'd typically operate, yet if they had the patience for it they could be making bank selling at today's prices vs rushing to dump months ago somewhere in the trips. (ENZC has only been out of the trips for 14 months)
Interesting post, skimming across it I see several good points and a few that can probably be countered. Will look at it tonight after sleep (I work nights so it's bedtime for me now, lol)
Take a look at the rest of the OTC. It's not just ENZC taking a beating today! Most of my watchlist is down between 10% and 60%.
Well, if it closes way lower today, both RSI and price will be lower than they've been in hundreds of days. That'll finally get this to ping on outside radars. In the meantime they can scoop cheapies from anyone who sells.
A few days like that and then making it flatline might set things up nicely if they want it to run in January and ENZC delivers on its anticipated news.
My guess is the SEC is well aware of the shenanigans happening with ENZC and others. A lot of well connected people in the current admin are currently making bank in mRNA tech. ENZC's immutable sites cures would render that tech obsolete or at least give it a run for its money. So I wager the SEC will keep looking the other way, unfortunately.
ENZC can overcome it by bringing its cures to other countries first, or selling Enzoimmune Active over the counter as a supplement, or working to transform veterinary medicine... ie they have to deliver, then the cures will speak for themselves.
TY for the heads up!
Charts aren't looking great for open, but stuff is oversold, so if it craters at open I would expect it to bounce most of the way back in a matter of a few hours to a few days. That said, a LOT of things have changed since April.
It would seem the .8-.10 level would have to be stronger support; it's the same level that reversed the bear trend down from $1 back in April.
I'm selling a few at open to mitigate risk, will add those back later if things start to turn around. I'm bearish and think this is headed to the 200 week moving average near .053 but I'd love to be wrong! :)
GLTA
In the example in that link,
In early 2021, carmaker Hyundai confirmed in a statement that it was in talks with Apple regarding cars. This, of course, raised suspicion that Apple is possibly entering the car market or creating a product related to automobiles. Hyundai then released a follow-up statement that removed any mention of Apple.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nda.asp
These are all from TD Ameritrade's ThinkOrSwim desktop app! It's overwhelming and kinda clunky, but also a powerful tool with a zillion charting functions.
Here's an overview of some of its charting features.
Huh, good observation! Thanks
Both Chandra and Tom have been in the habit of hyping news that doesn't seem to have the projected effect. Along with the inspirational quotes of late, it's kind of a bad look to me. Personally I want to see tangible and on-time deliverables, professional communication of both progress and problems, and less forward-looking stuff with vague goals or timelines. I get the impression the Bulgarian problem was a curveball for everyone (even ENZC) and as an investor it's unsettling to have to dig deep for any information about it.
The phoenix is still very intriguing... :)
Very interesting! Thanks for pointing out the changes.
I use the Accumulation / Distribution indicator a lot in my charting. Here's how it works.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/accumulationdistribution.asp
Here's what Acc/Dist looks like for an obvious diluter. Look at how the Acc/Dist line moves even lower at the end of the chart, even though price is temporarily higher -- without Acc/Dist it would seem like the ticker found support at a higher low. In later days (not charted here) it sure enough continued its downtrend and fell through support.
https://i.ibb.co/j4hvL7y/20211007-psru-accdist.png
For ENZC the Acc/Dist line has more closely matched price movement. This has led me to believe that there is just strong selling pressure, and I've chocked it up to longs who rode the run to $1 with a bunch of cheap shares who want out for various reasons, and MMs who sell short knowing OTC biotech takes a loonnnnng time to mature. Acc/Dist has stayed steady enough that it looks like the market has been buying and holding all the shares sold in 2021. This implies there might be an upturn at some unknown future point to bring price back in line with Accumulation. Intuitively this makes sense, if people are more generally holding, selling might drive down the price -- until all of a sudden everyone wants shares and few are available.
https://i.ibb.co/rd3FFww/20211111-enzc3.png
That said, one of the limitations to Acc/Dist is that it measures volume by period, and how it contributes to the shape of the charted line depends on period volume and where price closes.
The A/D indicator does not factor in price changes from one period to the next, and focuses only on where the price closes within the current period’s range. This creates some anomalies.
Assume a stock gaps down 20% on huge volume. The price oscillates throughout the day and finishes in the upper portion of its daily range, but is still down 18% from the prior close. Such a move would actually cause the A/D to rise. Even though the stock lost a significant amount of value, it finished in the upper portion of its daily range; therefore, the indicator will increase, likely dramatically, due to the large volume. (Investopedia)
Yes, it looks like historically a lot of tickers will start trending up around this time of year. I figure people would want to trim the fat and maybe raise some extra cash for the holiday season, and to take profit once they know how it'll affect taxes for the year. Others will take that as a buying opportunity.
ENZC looks well primed for another bull run, but imo it's got to stop the daily sinking and find support, and needs a strong news catalyst to kick it off.
Audit results, end of the lawsuit, ITV product finally shipping, or mAbs drugs starting clinical trials to name a few. I'm not sure mAb university studies, new patents or partnership announcements would move it now -- people were more excited about that stuff when it looked like the company was racing its rivals to be one of the first to market.
Nice post!
I'm a bit skeptical there's been conversion this year, given:
- That "two-year conversion clause to postpone conversions for the next two years" in ENZC's 2020 year end update JOEBURGER cited
- "When convertible preferred stock holders choose to convert their stocks to common stocks, the stocks they receive are newly issued. This increases the total number of common shares." https://www.upcounsel.com/convertible-preferred-stock But we can see in ENZC's financials the total number of common shares has been steady for awhile.
- From this link the table on page 6 shows conversions stopped happening in October 2020 https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/311215/content
- From this link the table on page 3, which is "For the Period from December 31, 2019 to September 30, 2021" has an item for "Stock converted from preferred to common" of 20,000,000 (Series B preferred = 200,000,000 common?) shares. https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/312797/content
Nevertheless the chart patterns resemble conversion or dilution. If that's been happening somehow (I don't see how, but I also don't understand the ins and outs of convertible share structures) and the converting entities have run out of shares, it seems to me we'd see the ticker suddenly start trading flat through December with no more big selloffs. Then hopefully news in January to pump it up again.
It hadn't finished below 30 all year before today, if I'm reading the chart right. The lowest I see is 30.4 on 8/20/21. For comparison, the last time daily RSI closed in the 20s at all was in January 2020! Yes hopefully it triggers some attention!
I'm still bearish on it short-term, but today's low was just right to create a double bottom with April's low of .0866 -- so who knows, maybe it'll hold steady and start reversing on Monday. The chart setup is there if it can just find its feet.
It's a possibility! But there being a problem they don't want to talk about better matches with the track record I've seen this year.
I don't doubt they're working hard to solve the problems, and problems are part of the journey! But as an investor I'd like transparency when they miss an expected milestone. If CC is under an NDA, why wouldn't he say he's under an NDA?
It depends on RSI at close but yes, that's a good point. If they set off technical indicators in an obvious way, it may be a signal they're getting ready to let this run.
I still think we haven't seen the bottom. There's exciting forward-looking stuff in the pipeline but none of it seems like it'll happen until January at the earliest. Retail who thinks this is a bargain price might not bring enough cash to turn the tide.
ENZC's silence on the audit worries me. Silence from ENZC when something's overdue has generally translated to 'uh oh, found a serious problem' in most other instances. The audit is critical for legitimacy, especially since the company has a history of setbacks & missteps (the Bad Stuff is just as real as their good partnerships and potential catalysts)
Have a good weekend, GLTA
Truth!
We're buying ghost shares. Rip
Still a good news drop, maybe it'll get some extra oomph midday after twitter passes it around. Would love to see the MMs forced to cover!
And that happened throughout the OTC around that time as well. It wasn't just ENZC
Good call.
For whatever reason the company can't drop the audit results, ITV trials won't start until at least January (because damaged equipment) and all seems quiet on other fronts. I think the market movers are banking that CC will have no news for awhile and trying to depress ENZC's investor base to trigger big selloffs, which would give MM's a golden opportunity to scoop millions of cheap shares with no obvious price bump. Example being 11/23 where 25 mil shares changed hands in an engulfing red candle that reversed two days later when nobody else was willing to sell.
From a TA point of view, it's fascinating that this never closes in the breakdown range on daily chart RSI. 30 seems to be the floor (though it trades like it's in breakdown)
Hoping for clone 3 news before end of year.
I mean, if they could reach such a deal to get him off their back, maybe they'd take it. (And if they did do that, we investors wouldn't know until after the fact.)
But the sell volume is so low it doesn't look like anyone's dumping 71 mil shares. The price is moving down a lot on relatively little selling.
Silence has been their standard response to hurdles and bad news. To the point that silence now implies bad news.