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Re: Timing101 post# 134804

Saturday, 12/04/2021 9:35:44 PM

Saturday, December 04, 2021 9:35:44 PM

Post# of 200355
Very interesting! Thanks for pointing out the changes.


I use the Accumulation / Distribution indicator a lot in my charting. Here's how it works.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/accumulationdistribution.asp


Here's what Acc/Dist looks like for an obvious diluter. Look at how the Acc/Dist line moves even lower at the end of the chart, even though price is temporarily higher -- without Acc/Dist it would seem like the ticker found support at a higher low. In later days (not charted here) it sure enough continued its downtrend and fell through support.
https://i.ibb.co/j4hvL7y/20211007-psru-accdist.png


For ENZC the Acc/Dist line has more closely matched price movement. This has led me to believe that there is just strong selling pressure, and I've chocked it up to longs who rode the run to $1 with a bunch of cheap shares who want out for various reasons, and MMs who sell short knowing OTC biotech takes a loonnnnng time to mature. Acc/Dist has stayed steady enough that it looks like the market has been buying and holding all the shares sold in 2021. This implies there might be an upturn at some unknown future point to bring price back in line with Accumulation. Intuitively this makes sense, if people are more generally holding, selling might drive down the price -- until all of a sudden everyone wants shares and few are available.
https://i.ibb.co/rd3FFww/20211111-enzc3.png


That said, one of the limitations to Acc/Dist is that it measures volume by period, and how it contributes to the shape of the charted line depends on period volume and where price closes.

The A/D indicator does not factor in price changes from one period to the next, and focuses only on where the price closes within the current period’s range. This creates some anomalies.

Assume a stock gaps down 20% on huge volume. The price oscillates throughout the day and finishes in the upper portion of its daily range, but is still down 18% from the prior close. Such a move would actually cause the A/D to rise. Even though the stock lost a significant amount of value, it finished in the upper portion of its daily range; therefore, the indicator will increase, likely dramatically, due to the large volume. (Investopedia)


ENZC has had its share of average-volume days with atypical low-volume price movement at open or close, and some gapping after hours. It makes me wonder if the Acc/Dist line is getting manipulated to some extent. (ie When this is ready to run, it'll look great on the Acc/Dist charts for new people who haven't been watching the daily action.)