Retired
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I mostly agree. I believe the CEO has determined the best course of action is to prepare a total analysis inclusive of "other endpoints" in addition to the Top Line Results in order to gain an "out chance accelerated approval" making the delay well worth the wait.
Or "a very well defined P3 Precision Medicine trial follow-up." Which is also "a very good outcome of a P2b trial!" similar to your more pessimistic quasi long view.
I'm not in the apologist camp, and I do understand investor frustration when timing doesn't go as planned, particularly when the timing was from the CEO in the first place. However plans change and those plans of driven by the CEO's larger game plan and may not jive with shorter term retail investor whims.
The more data with confirming analysis, the more likely a NDA will garner accelerated approval, so I wait and trust the CEO's plan will work better than a rushed alternative.
"The market" has lost faith on equity as an asset class and biotech in particular since 2021 more than losing patience specifically on $AVXL.
Retail may be losing patience but others are adding per last institutional holding report, now who and why are adding is up for discussion, but in aggregate it has increased.
I am oh so humble to the market.
It's kick me off my high horse many times.
Well...actually he did give away quite a few cheap shares, but given the financing agreements in place, the CEO did very with the well timing and size of the offering.
One of his key jobs is to keep the coffers full as shareholder friendly as the market will bear.
Re-read your last sentence and remember retail is along for the ride.
Dr.M's best interests are your best interests (someone calculate Dr.M's "all in" with options fully exercised, e.g. in the event of a buyout) and in his opinion I'm sure he thinks he's doing what is right to to increase shareholder value.
I think that is a horrible way to run the company. For retail shareholders anyway.
Makes me feel alive to take risks... Wheeee!
If it wasn't for $AVXL I'd be adjusting short term fixed income positions, and that's boring as hell, even with the historic interest rate volatility.
Make sure you're managing cash wisely folks.
Relax... also, Blackrock and State street are mindless indexes there is no secret information to be shared.
Proxy is coming up soon for the annual meeting. Please VOTE.
Sounds to me like the daily grind reading social media FUD is warping your biotech investing logic. To me it's forward progress without failure that matters, not speed or meeting artificial timelines subject to outside factors, and thus far the painfully slow movement is going in the right direction. This is particularly relevant when there has been an upswing in academic publications and the emergence of Sigma 1R competitors recently.
I've been here since 2015 and have followed the scientific backstory of S1R, so I think your disappointment "waiting more than 1 year" quite hillarious.
Trainguy1 on ST will probably be creating a list of grievances for you to join.
Thus far compensation for Dr.M's "achievements" have been stock options and in the early days were related to structural and capital improvements for the company like the uplist to the NASDAQ. Other awards were for completing predetermined by the board milestones such as full enrollment and I'm sure there will be many more awards for his accomplishments.
yet wants compensations for his achievements
Impatience plays a role, along with the emotions that come with crappy technicals and a equity bear market can test many longs.
There are big bets on both sides on $AVXL story. It's what keeps it interesting.
Quite an extraordinary situation with signals going in both directions.
LOL, Yep, read that on the interwebs.
I am just waiting for a whistle blower to reveal the secret billions Anavex is earning on the SAS Cat B approval.
Buddy if this was the case I'd be in Australia bribing doctors to prescribe.
thousands of Australian SAS cat B patients every single day.
I had a full Bloomberg terminal at my fingertips for 20 years and when I semi-retired in 2013 I realized how much I missed it.
I've commented to you in the past I liked the Refinitiv data. Thanks.
Are the holdings of insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds and family offices as a percentage total aggregate institutional ownership sortable?
Since you're cherry picking data, did you conveniently forget to provide a summary of all the other firms with over $100 million assets under management that are required to file13f not categized as an index fund?
Are the holdings of insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds and family offices not important when discussing total aggregate institutional ownership?
I'm in the WGT (we got this) camp for Rett.
My bad attempt at humor from the SVB event.
If Rett fails most will flee faster than Silicon Valley Bank depositors.
ARRGGG TAXES is currently a trigger word. LOL!!! Yes, taxes too are a factor.
There is no advantage to exercise early unless there was a plan to sell most or all of the acquired position, and I don't think that's in the CEO's plan to sell. When his time comes to sell, I would guess it would be via prospectus as an existing shareholder at a stock offering well into the future.
Also, with cash actually earning a real return these days it's a waste of money over the time period.
Gotcha, there is definitely a lot learn about amyloid, tau and alpha synuclein and their relationships to various disease states.
You went deeper that the simple point I was making in that alpha synuclein is thought to be a primary factor in PD, PDD, and Lewy Body Dementia. I wanted to mention this particularly with the current focus on only Alzheimer's disease and amyloid.
Proving an upstream mechanism of action that may help multiple seemingly different indications is a big claim, and that will require big evidence and well designed studies.
Correction to an on an earlier comment you made, alpha synuclein not amyloid is thought to contribute to Parkinson's disease .
I personally never set a time frame for $AVXL, as long as there is forward progress without a trial failure remains the strategy.
$8.55'ish is now support, $9 is resistance based on the fact $9 was once a support. A move above $9 and hold can nullify much of this macro market noise.
In many ways, I am an accidental multi-millionaire, but of course I don't tell my wife that. It's all smarts baby, all smarts. LOL
The PR that piqued my interest:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2015/01/06/695206/10114205/en/Anavex-Encouraged-by-Scientific-Data-Confirming-Sigma-1-Receptor-s-Beneficial-Direct-Interaction-With-Cannabinoid-Receptor.html
I haven't given up on the theory and mabe after cannabis removal from the controlled substance act scientist will deliver the scientific proof.
Dementia regardless of the cause is horrible. The caretaker experience shook me to my core.
Our proven best course of action is diet and exercise. Hopefully in a post blarcamesine approval world the key will also be in getting evaluated early to start treatment.
The side effect profile of trofinetide will greatly limit it's adoption.
I try to be supportive of the Rett community and have tried to take the high road on the topic, but trofinetide is poo poo.
ihub in general is basically a cesspool for OTC traders to swim in.
$AVXL is that 1 out of 100 stocks that ever climb out of it.
If it wasn't the pot stock capitalization boom, which I played like a fiddle, and its relationship with the OTC exchange, I may have never found $AVXL.
Rett first has always been the plan to establish how the upstream S1R MOA operates using a genetic disease where the cause is known.
Back in 2015, when I established my first position (sub $1), I was deep into a dementia caretaker role for my dad (Lewy Body Dementia, alpha synuclein) and didn't understand the rational to focus on rare diseases. Flash forward to 2023 and we now understand the method to the madness in the high value of rare disease drug approvals.
Where things get weird for me is what happens to rare disease drug pricing when it's approved for a large indication like AD? I assume the price drops for those with the rare disease indications too.
Also, some of us have been able to use that time to accumulate as the science, both academic and clinical, have advanced.
I do see his point, but it's rearview mirror speculation, smart money looks forward.
The Anavex FB group shares the important stuff here and on Stocktwits.
Different personalities like different forums.
Anavex used SVB to sponsor PAST equity offerings. Anavex holds it's cash at JP Morgan per the 10-K.
The implosion of SVB has no current impact on Anavex. In regards to future impact this disruption could cause a capital crunch for other companies. Anavex recently extended their relationship with LPC most likely to keep the cash balance topped off at $150 million.
We need a press release to get the real exposure.
"What caused AVXL collapse this week?" Macro market conditions. I agree with your T/A levels.
I had a time period where I never entered buy limit orders and instead sold cash secured puts and sold credit put spreads.
Your trade executed at a couple market centers and FIDO sucks, I see your trade just fine on SSEdge and other trading platforms.
This would be a time where I'd re-educate my clients on market risks versus company risks.
Retail is broke and back to living on credit, I doubt they can offer much buy side support, but as we finally saw in the last institutional holdings report they are adding.
Now if the SVB bank implosion creates more drag on risk capital assets like $AVXL remains to be seen.
Only company specific news can break this macro market downdraft.
Contradiction is a key tactic used by team FUD.
Big claims require big evidence. Best get the end of the process work done right on the first try. We've definitely waited a long enough for the data collection and analysis work to be done.
I'm a retired investment advisor and I have always warned my clients to be wary of protected forward looking speech from biotech CEO's as 95% of the time the drug will fail regardless.
As I mentioned previously, I do some work within securities class action. It is quite apparent that biotech / pharma companies can end up in trouble from misstating or omitting information that later proved material and caused losses for investors
The dialogues generated by Investor2014's "devils advocacy" from both bulls and bears, the scientific versus the "faithful", the we got this versus the needs more evidence, etc. is what makes this iHub message board so damn fun.
Intelligent "critical thinkers" understand the platform is not a physical machine. The platform consists of the intellectual property and processes. Only idiots would believe it's a physical object.
Has anybody ever seen the sigmaceptor platform, or even a picture or video of it? We take it on faith but does it really exist? Is it in a laboratory someplace and are there actual researchers involved? How does this discovery platform work? Inquiring minds and critical thinkers want to know. Others probably don’t care.
The full KEM analysis is needed for the neurological trials as big claims require big evidence. This is particularly true since the goal is to prove the S1R/muscarinic mechanism of action will be applicable to multiple neurological indications. I also expect 3-71 to have equally thorough analysis build into the trial designs.
Also, $AVXL does not need EXCELLENCE to "save the day", but I'm sure it's fun to mention in the devil's advocate role.
Instead Anavex have blindsided the P2b/3 situation, continuing the deep work on the full KEM analysis in the background, while hopes of EXCELLENCE will save the day.