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My guess is many companies will be pitching hard at this "dog and pony show" as capital funding for the sector has dried up. Thankfully Anavex has cash in the bank and a frugal CEO. Unfortunate for other baby biotechs, well... some are in trouble.
The simply horrible reception $ANVS received on it's recent stock offering could be the death knell for all low cash on hand biotechs.
This will be particularly true if equity as an asset class remains out of favor versus fixed income.
Waiting until facts are known before transitioning from a CRO based model to an "in-house" model was smart and frugal use of resources.
Idk but it seems as though if we don’t get approved for Alz than Missling really screwed the pooch and wasted a lot of time at the expense of shareholder value.
Hashing it out further until then seems fruitless.
The entertainment value of watching the extremes of team "WGT" versus team "FUD" definitely keeps this stock interesting.
I couldn't agree more with your comments:
Missling has said when he wants to negotiate a deal with BP, not until he has an approval. That is maximizing the value of the drug.
I don't like seeing the share price drop just like most people here. It is annoying. In the long term it is meaningless. Unless you are a trader of course and even then this drop represents an opportunity.
I have been buying some longer term options at pretty good prices.
No doubt AI is fascinating.
For some it's like reserve me a seat at the beach AI can do my work, and for others it's, oh shit that thing took my job. It's relative in my opinion, but fascinating nonetheless.
That's all basically free too. Right? Imagine how easy it's going to be to game opinions versus unsuspecting user in the future.
AI in biotech is equally fascinating, as we expect $AVXL and Ariana to display. I hear it's "just around the corner".
Wash sale, due to statement, "Then I go out and buy 300 of the XXX"
Dr. Cummings is also on this small companies Scientific advisory board that presented at AD/PD 2023.
https://www.wrentherapeutics.com/our-science/publications/
But keep searching for Anavex mentions.
No that's not what it "proves" LOL!!!!! The director stock options are periodic and contractual. Thus negating the this is all per plan conspiracy logic.
Guess the best thing to do is to buy some options or long stock to also take advantage of the "cheap shares". Actually It's time to buy, if your theory is correct.
$ANVS ... What a miserable stock offering they just had.
"...the Company sold 704,000 Shares pursuant to the Sales Agreement at a price of $10.88 per Share, for gross proceeds of $7,659,520 before commissions. As a result of the termination of the Sales Agreement, the Company will not offer or sell any additional Shares under the Sales Agreement."
$AVXL thankfully has a strong cash position, however similarly as an equity financed entity is subject to similar market trends.
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001477845/000110465923041237/tm2311180d3_8k.htm
Sounds like biotech may not be a suitable investment if the focus is on short term cash needs versus ability to watch the story develop. However, you do make some interesting point and speculations.
From my point of view, it is much easier to be patient when your cost basis is low.
I snark in jest.
I know and agree... just playing the positive side. The data further confirms a dose dependency and on-off cycle, but I think many of us assumed these conclusions to be true in the first place.
So in a whoop dee doo attitude is quite expected.
Not everyone is in this mindset... but it's entertaining to watch retailers who think they should be informed of, and be involved in, every aspect of the company wonk away on the interwebs.
Yes we have become accustomed having to check and double check and last minute check and post check what is going on vs what is being said - unfortunately.
Anavex turned some lemons into lemonade with the shitty situation that was Spain during covid and now everyone is pissed.
Oh how entertaining.
Precisely, I think there will be many pivotal 2/3 trials coming up in several indications.
Cash gotta someplace, I'm thinking this will be a stock pickers market.
I most definitely will contribute the nonsense! LOL!
Don't contribute to the nonsense.
I missed this one. I laughed so hard I fell out of my chair.
My dad was SO anti-technical analysis, and as a component of my broker training I learned it and used it almost daily. Oh the fun times when the nature of the market behaves in or out of your favor and our reasons why.But, I do think with his initial investment selection based on fundamentals we did earned outsized returns.
What do the tea leaves say today? Reading those bones are we?
Those narratives are created by both the bulls and bears it's human nature.
Reality and common sense can be frightening to them. So they come up with comforting narratives, and then blame hidden conspiracies when it falls apart. What can you do.
The fact PDD data has also been presented at AD conferences is often omitted by those who have fun with FUD.
The broad upstream mechanism of action of S1R and muscarinic modulation may help multiple seemingly different indications.
When you've lost BigBioBoom on StockTwits...
The cells are "perturbed"? That's an odd anthropomorphized phrase.
Interesting research though.
Trading is an educated guessing game.
Non-technical trading issues are driving the price lower as market participants flee risk capital.
As I've said before it's the market, not the company and I frankly don't see that changing until $AVXL produces a positive data release.
Investors following the scientific backstory who used risk capital for their shares can ride it out and IMO should add upon this weakness, but participants using trading technicals should have bailed last week when the $9 level fell.
I think my question is more along the lines of learning about off-label prescribing for ultra rare and rare diseases after any type of approval.
The system and process just seems to take too long and too expensive for those conditions.
I assume for a chance at insurance coverage more P 2/3 trials are needed, right?
Why go through the trouble of another phase one after a Rett Syndrome approval?
So many doctors prescribe off-label wouldn't than be more prudent?
Seems to me the blarcamesine MOA would be a smart drug to trial for hereditary spastic paraplegia (HSP) given the data on GABA and dysfunctional calcium transport at the endoplasmic reticulum (ER).
I truly hope blarcamesine can help your condition.
Unfortunately for the Rett girls trofinetide is a poop shoot.
Heck, I the USA doubt most practicing medical doctors even have time to even complete their required continuing education requirements. Let alone spend time on penny stock investment chat boards such as ihub.
True. Anavex is simply looking for a gut biome biomarker of response.
My understanding of Anavex's interest is currently in identifying any reliable biomarkers in gut biomes for our MOA.
Weak rebuttal...
For an "armchair scientist" like myself, lots of interesting interconnections between sigma science and various "hot topics". The various microbiomes present in our bodies among them.
I hope Anavex adds back access to all the raw presentation materials. Some of us geeks like to read that stuff.
The question was, has Anavex read "Spirit of the Coast" science updates NOT read this message board.
Anavex gives zero shitts about this message board, there is NO competitive intelligence to learn from a retail chat board relevant to the operations of Anavex.
It's no surprise, there are some good posts and links here. Many companies will also have someone doing competitive intelligence to learn about possibly competing drugs.
There were some posts around 2019 that Dr. Macfarlane reads the MB - My understanding by some is that this means he can not actually be a Dr.
Inference = "a conclusion reached on the basis of evidence and reasoning"
Based upon many different and varied pieces of evidence and academic trends in sigmar1 modulation and positive trends from Anavex human trials, yes, one can infer the small molecule drug blarcamesine is being referenced.
From a company watching standpoint the other clues are the recent additions to staff.
Guess they could have used Silicon Valley Bank again, but...whoops that capital provider went tits up.
Yes... and more analysis from the other trials too.
So what you are saying is that we need the full data set from the company for the Alzheimer’s p2/3 trial for us to reach fair value?
what will it take to reach fair value??
However plans change and those plans are driven by the CEO's larger game plan and may not jive with shorter term retail investor whims.
Ya'll get so worked up about the unknown that biotech definitely isn't a suitable investment for most here.
2 comments stand out: "The changing therapeutic landscape" and "There are really interesting small molecules directed at disease modification" that could refer to the adding the small molecule blarcamesine to the changing "drug development pipeline".
To speculate those comments are about Anavex is exactly that, speculation, but could very well be true.
I mostly agree. I believe the CEO has determined the best course of action is to prepare a total analysis inclusive of "other endpoints" in addition to the Top Line Results in order to gain an "out chance accelerated approval" making the delay well worth the wait.
Or "a very well defined P3 Precision Medicine trial follow-up." Which is also "a very good outcome of a P2b trial!" similar to your more pessimistic quasi long view.
I'm not in the apologist camp, and I do understand investor frustration when timing doesn't go as planned, particularly when the timing was from the CEO in the first place. However plans change and those plans of driven by the CEO's larger game plan and may not jive with shorter term retail investor whims.
The more data with confirming analysis, the more likely a NDA will garner accelerated approval, so I wait and trust the CEO's plan will work better than a rushed alternative.
"The market" has lost faith on equity as an asset class and biotech in particular since 2021 more than losing patience specifically on $AVXL.
Retail may be losing patience but others are adding per last institutional holding report, now who and why are adding is up for discussion, but in aggregate it has increased.