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Ecuador oil production down from 201,000bpd to 33,000bpd. Expected to take at least untill November to restore production.
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August 21, 2005 01:17 PM ET
Ecuador oil protesters agree to talk
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20050821/bs_nm/ecuador_dc_10
All Reuters NewsQUITO, Ecuador (Reuters) - Leaders of protests that shut down Ecuador's oil industry were freed from jail after agreeing to halt their attacks and negotiate with the government, officials on both sides of the conflict said on Sunday.
The protesters, who started dynamiting pipelines and vandalizing pumping machinery on Monday, remained on alert while both sides decide on a time and place to start talks.
Demanding jobs and infrastructure investment, protesters invaded oil fields in Sucumbios and Orellana provinces, helping push U.S. crude oil futures by $2 to more than $65 a barrel on Friday.
Many of the protest leaders released late on Saturday are mayors and other elected officials in the region. General Gonzalo Mesa, in charge of army operations in the area, said dozens of protesters remained jailed pending outcome of the talks.
Production by Petroecuador, which suspended exports on Thursday, totaled 33,167 barrels per day on Saturday, compared to 201,000 bpd before protests began.
"We think Petroecuador is ready to help us with some of our requests, the most important of which is that it and the private oil companies operating in the area build roads and do more to reverse the environmental damage they have done," said Edmundo Espindola, mayor of the oil town of Shushufindi in Sucumbios province.
The government is gradually restoring order since it declared a state of emergency in Orellana and Sucumbios on Wednesday, allowing authorities to restrict freedom of movement and association and censor media.
The government says it will take until November to restore Petroecuador's production, which is key to the country's economy. The company said it could take longer to restore production in some fields.
Oil output by private companies has been reduced to nearly zero, Rene Ortiz, president of the Ecuadorean Hydrocarbons Association, told Reuters.
VENEZUELA TO THE RESCUE
Ecuador, with only an eight-day supply of reserves left, is seeking a loan of oil from Venezuela to meet its export commitments.
President Alfredo Palacio received a telephone call from Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Saturday promising the loan, whose size is yet to be determined, said Palacio spokesman Andres Seminario.
Venezuelan Foreign Minister Ali Rodriguez said a meeting would be held in Caracas on Monday to study the request and the availability of Venezuelan crude.
Ecuador also plans to import fuel for domestic use and seek a $400 million loan from the Latin American Reserve Fund to avoid balance-of-payment problems from the oil stoppages.
The protests have been the biggest challenge to Palacio since he was appointed in April after Congress fired President Lucio Gutierrez for meddling with the Supreme Court. The government has accused Gutierrez, who is in exile in Peru, of being behind the unrest.
The protesters also want the government to renegotiate contracts with Occidental Petroleum Corp. , Petrobras and EnCana Corp. , to raise state participation.
Ecuador is South America's fifth largest producer of crude oil and, after Venezuela, is the second-largest South American supplier of oil to the United States. (Additional reporting by Alexandra Valencia)
I Hub has an ignore feature. Click on a persons name then click ignore and they're gone forever. Matt, the Admin, here at I Hub is very good at ferreting out multiple alias's by scanning the members IP adresses. If you suspect someone report them with your suspicion of the TOS violation.
This can be a good board with useful posting's I hope it's not ruined by an abuser.
Keep the peace
I think we get a tradable low near end of month but the downtrend continues to near the April lows this fall.
Smart Money added to shorts last week.
Smart Money added to shorts last week.
Bollinger Band width on equity put to call quite narrow. I think we get a fear spike which drives the upper band. Translation...big down move that scares the crap out of the complacent.
I thought you all came to I Hub to leave the bickering behind?
Keep the peace.
Further to a discussion we had on MACD.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7430495
Inevitable that a disruption will occur at some point. A drop in demand is the only thing that will kill oil prices and the only thing that will kill demand is a worldwide slowdown.
Bold statement predicated on extreme complacency. Consumers nor investors care. Yet
More...
http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20050819.GIF
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/HARDING.html
Candle pattern says down. Long tails on upper candle shows sellers still not satisfied. Today looks like a gravestone doji.
Gravestone Doji ( Reversal Signal)
Minimal Body with long upper shadow
Tim Ord also looking for a test of April lows.
August 8, 2005
What to expect now:
We got a sell signal on the SPX on the weekly time frame on Friday. The signal is on an intermediate term timeframe. We are short at 1226.42. Our first downside target is the April low near the 1140 range. We have displayed the weekly S&P graph on the second to last page of this report, Courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com. Last week a bearish "Engulfing pattern" candlestick pattern was drawn. The week before that a "Bearish Doji Shooting Star" appeared. Last week's bearish Engulfing pattern traded above the March high and closed below it and volume shrank by 8.5% triggering the sell signal. The bearish candlestick pattern help to confirm the bearish trigger. The Daily MACD indicator also turned down as well as the NYSE Summation index. If a market can not hold it's previous high it will reverse and try to take out the previous low of the same degree. The previous low of the same degree is the April low near the 1140 range. Short term the S&P could rally back to the gap level that was created three days go near the 1245 range (marked on the graph above). Therefore, there could be some backing and filling before the market heads lower. The anniversary of last year low was 8/13 and could hold up the current market tell than.
Check out our article in the July Issue of Stock and Commodities magazine, page 76. It's a good explanation how I look at the market.
To learn more on "Ord-Volume" visit www.ord-oracle.com.
Nasdaq Composite:
On the weekly chart of the Nasdaq on the last page of this report (Courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com), the Nasdaq tested the previous weekly high set in January 2005 on 30% less volume and than closed below the January high. This condition triggered a sell signal on the intermediate term time frame. Also the MACD and Nasdaq McClellan Summation index turned down and helped to confirm the intermediate term sell signal. We are short the Nasdaq 7/29 at 2184.83. Our downside target is the April low near 1900 level.
Generally agree on your take of an imminent bounce. I think it will be corrective, putting in a lower high, followed by lower lows.
I'm short but looking to reposition half on further weakness.
With the MACD crossing down and RSI 14 coming off such a high level I'm thinking down. I feel like the lone ranger. LOL
The BB width of the $CPCE is as narrow as it's ever been since being charted at StockCharts. Volatility in that indicator is due to increase.
BPCOMPQ
Very nice play. I applaud your patience on this trade.
Willingness to take risk rolling over.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=6859747
$Nasi crossed below both 10 and 20 sma. Could be an early warning.
A test of the April lows this fall.
O's latest. Babelfish translation leaves much to be desired. Hopefully Culmus will offer a better one.
Elliottwaves: Short update NDX - Change of trend finally (openly)
SHORT UPDATE Elliottwaves Nasdaq100-Index
The view of the past week analysis was quite differentiated: Afterwards first the NDX should put a short intermediate correction down to 1,591 (Wave iv) and look upward and to 1,630+ climb. Only after this new Top the start of a new fall of prices wave was expected.
The reality came this view quite near, if one refrains from the fact that the correction low already was with 1.604. The Top was determined with 1.628, so that the kursverluste of the second week half were everything else as surprising.
_ although in contrast to last analysis the Intraday sample now complete be, have itself to the chart and technical situation since week nothing change. Therefore the realization gain from the trade of the past week is also only very small. It remains everything with the old person:
Medium-term the rise of the last weeks is counted as wave C of (D). This wave (D) is a component of a volatilen Seitwaertskorrektur, which will dominate also the next months. However (probably already) the started wave will bring falling courses to (E) with itself. The ideal course goal is with approximately 1.450/60 points on view of 2-3 months. Whether it will give an extension of the wave to (E) or a shorter Subwave, cannot be clarified momentarily.
Charttechnisch is the NDX rather in a neutral zone, since between 1.570-1.640 no clear trend signals are present. Only the BREAK of 1.570 confirms - admittedly relatively late -, assistance of a wave overlap, the wave (E). Without this trend signal at least the theoretical possibility of an expansion remains upward and/or extension of the recent lateral movement.
There is nevertheless a clearly definable, favored scenario:
The Nasdaq100 orients itself not only in the forthcoming commercial week, but in the next 2-4 months further downward. This Downmove will be three-part and with approximately 1,450+ to end will go. In the 1.570-er range should give it a first intermediate low.
Illustration 1: DAILY Chart NDX
Illustration 2: 90-Minuten-Chart NDX
The Patterns starting from the Top supports the favored scenario of falling courses, since the current Downmove was impulsive and so that in the forthcoming commercial week implies further kursverluste.
The far design of the recent Intraday COUNT leads to the result that already with the Low by Friday the first Abwaertsfuenfer one locked. Whether this is actually the case will still show up or nevertheless still another Subwave 5' to under 1.598 follows. Realistic anyhow a reaction is on Monday and/or Tuesday. In the ideal case there is already a return up to the Retracement in the course of the Monday meeting at 1.611 points. If the NDX does not start with a Gap into the trade, the wave should be final already ii on this level. Too high trend dynamics can extend the correction to 1,614.
At the latest in the second week half thus the next downward wave stands on the program. The minimum goal is at 1.587 points. Since however a main drive shaft iii is favored, kursverluste to 1,571 are more probable (in the case of a Extension even to 1,550).
The K.O. mark is momentarily about 1.615 points. If the NDX should over-bid this mark against expecting, the whole Topbildungsphase of the wave (D) is pulled again by 1-2 weeks into the length. However it remains with the very much limited Kurspotenzial of 1.640 points.
Illustration 3: 5-Minuten-Chart NDX
Result:
The announced direction change should be final. However there is a thick support, which applies to break through it with 1.570+, if the Abwaertspotenzial to 1,450 is to be exhausted fully. To beginning of the week it will give first a lateral movement between 1.597-1.611.
Hard to see how the consumer is maintaining with housing, healthcare, and energy rising faster than incomes.
The debt merry-go-round? LOL...that's just postponing the pain of living within ones means.
U.S. Equities: Insiders Are Unloading
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20050726.GIF
Financial Insiders: Abandon Ship, Abandon Ship!
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20050725.GIF
I think it makes a new low for the year. Standing aside until there's more clarity on what the Fed has planned. BTW, I suspect this general market rally has been in anticipation of the Fed being finished. No change to policy statement and continued hikes are not priced in. We'll see....
Broken link. Here's a copy & paste of Babelfish
UPDATE Elliottwaves S&P500-Index
At the end of June still lay the SPX below the resistance of 1.208 points, so that tendentious falling courses were prognosticated. The fast Rebreak of 1.208 neutralized the fresh Short signal, so that the superordinate upward trend was again taken up. The in the meantime new Tops was not particular surprising.
Which concerns the long-term Chart, in principle a Restpotenzial exists upward until approximately 1,300 points for the index, where a on a long-term basis important Retracement lies. Whether the SPX however the strength possesses this price level to reach is rather questionable.
If one looks at oneself the upward motions of the past 18 months, then it is noticeable that the rises of the price extent became ever shorter and the reactions were temporally expanded and/or led to wave overlaps. This is not in the long-term context an indication of the strength. Thus for the time being only one count is applicable as corrective rise.
Illustration 1: Weekly Chart SPX
Picture increase
Which the long-term samples concern, a significant Short signal is necessary, in order to ring in central and/or long-term Downmove. The associated downward goals of 1.060 and/or. 980 points on view of 12 months remain up to then in the drawer; are postponed, but not waived.
The medium-term central support is momentarily with approximately 1,180+, where a flat boom trend line runs. So for a long time this trend is not hurt, gives it no sound, medium-term negative trend signals. With 1.210 a Short signal is already generated. This is important however only for the kuerzerfristige trend behavior.
Illustration 2: DAILY Chart SPX
Which concerns the samples of the past months, neither a classical upward impulse, nor (assumed like so far) a usual correction sample are present. Correct way are corrective the Patterns starting from the April low. Both the rise to 1,179, and the move to 1,219 were only three wavy! This speaks clearly against a Aufwaertsfuenfer and was also the reason for the expected decrease.
The rise of the past weeks fits therefore not quite into the picture, even if a Flat correction is subordinated. There is actually only a meaningful possibility this upward trend inclusive corrective Patterns abzuzaehlen, i.e. in the framework one diagonally trifishes.
This is a "hermaphrodite", i.e. the wave consists of five single movements, which are in each case corrective however only. Exactly this is for April the case. This diagonally trifishes arises typically in the last final phase central or long-term trend movement, either as Wave v of 5 or wave of a C of a double or a Triple Zigzag.
The rise since 07 July is not correctively countable however yet, because it concerns a magnifying glass-pure impulse. The lateral movement of the past week is clearly corrective and must be counted therefore as intermediate correction within the upward motion. Only a Wave iv or the more probable case, a Wave b of 5 is applicable.
For the trend behavior of the next days and weeks this first far means rising courses. The computational course goals, which result from the wavelengths of the waves 1 and 3, are with 1.243 and 1.257 points. A dynamic expansion until scarcely 1,300 points cannot be derived momentarily.
As soon as the SPX penetrated into the 1.250-er range, the central support can be raised to 1.220 points. Above this mark chart and wave technical are everything in the green range. If this support falls, a medium-term loadable Top is present. Up-to-date this support however still is at 1.210 points.
Result:
It is open, as far the SPX still climbs. A move until over 1.250 points is ideal, so that a mehrmonatige fall of prices starts there. The central support, whose BREAK leads to a strategic Short signal, is at 1.210, later at 1.220 points.
$SPX/$GOLD
Yowsa! AAII bullish sentiment way high.
New highs also dropping.
Link was included but here's a direct image. Say's to me rally participation is narrowing.
New highs seem to have peaked even as the indexes continue their climb;
"The Fundamentals Stink: Buy Stocks" until reality sets in, LOL
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/economy/index.html
I did buy when Ndx was at 1570 Fri. Thats alot of rally on negative money flow. Notice how the index rose but CMF and 5,3 stochs are hooked down? Not shown but a div. on RSI 14. I'm looking for a 3-5% correction here and considering keeping some as a core position since I think we retest the bear market lows 1-2 years out.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[h,a]dacayyay[p][vc60][iLc20!Lh5,3]&pref=G
From a few days back. Negative Divergence on NAA50r
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=35244&u=gizmo&a=Gizmo's%20Charts&id=1154
You must have cable modem. That is fast compared to my 1410 DSL, but the DSL is completely functional and fast enough for my uses.
Had the Comcast cable modem but had trouble and canceled. It turned out no fault of theirs as I had viruses on that computer. No fun there.
Loading up 2X Ndx short here at 1570. Sentiment is too bullish/Negative Div. I'm looking for 1520 anyway but would be willing to hold this longer term if it goes against me. LOL or not <ggg>
Problem with maintaining ones lifestyle via debt is that this same lifestyle needs to be reduced below what it would normally be when the debt is being reduced.
My understanding is bankruptcy is no longer the bailout it once was.
Wonder when people get tired of working to pay ever more finance charges?