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O's latest. Babelfish translation leaves much to be desired. Hopefully Culmus will offer a better one.

Elliottwaves: Short update NDX - Change of trend finally (openly)



SHORT UPDATE Elliottwaves Nasdaq100-Index

The view of the past week analysis was quite differentiated: Afterwards first the NDX should put a short intermediate correction down to 1,591 (Wave iv) and look upward and to 1,630+ climb. Only after this new Top the start of a new fall of prices wave was expected.
The reality came this view quite near, if one refrains from the fact that the correction low already was with 1.604. The Top was determined with 1.628, so that the kursverluste of the second week half were everything else as surprising.

_ although in contrast to last analysis the Intraday sample now complete be, have itself to the chart and technical situation since week nothing change. Therefore the realization gain from the trade of the past week is also only very small. It remains everything with the old person:
Medium-term the rise of the last weeks is counted as wave C of (D). This wave (D) is a component of a volatilen Seitwaertskorrektur, which will dominate also the next months. However (probably already) the started wave will bring falling courses to (E) with itself. The ideal course goal is with approximately 1.450/60 points on view of 2-3 months. Whether it will give an extension of the wave to (E) or a shorter Subwave, cannot be clarified momentarily.

Charttechnisch is the NDX rather in a neutral zone, since between 1.570-1.640 no clear trend signals are present. Only the BREAK of 1.570 confirms - admittedly relatively late -, assistance of a wave overlap, the wave (E). Without this trend signal at least the theoretical possibility of an expansion remains upward and/or extension of the recent lateral movement.

There is nevertheless a clearly definable, favored scenario:
The Nasdaq100 orients itself not only in the forthcoming commercial week, but in the next 2-4 months further downward. This Downmove will be three-part and with approximately 1,450+ to end will go. In the 1.570-er range should give it a first intermediate low.

Illustration 1: DAILY Chart NDX


Illustration 2: 90-Minuten-Chart NDX


The Patterns starting from the Top supports the favored scenario of falling courses, since the current Downmove was impulsive and so that in the forthcoming commercial week implies further kursverluste.
The far design of the recent Intraday COUNT leads to the result that already with the Low by Friday the first Abwaertsfuenfer one locked. Whether this is actually the case will still show up or nevertheless still another Subwave 5' to under 1.598 follows. Realistic anyhow a reaction is on Monday and/or Tuesday. In the ideal case there is already a return up to the Retracement in the course of the Monday meeting at 1.611 points. If the NDX does not start with a Gap into the trade, the wave should be final already ii on this level. Too high trend dynamics can extend the correction to 1,614.
At the latest in the second week half thus the next downward wave stands on the program. The minimum goal is at 1.587 points. Since however a main drive shaft iii is favored, kursverluste to 1,571 are more probable (in the case of a Extension even to 1,550).

The K.O. mark is momentarily about 1.615 points. If the NDX should over-bid this mark against expecting, the whole Topbildungsphase of the wave (D) is pulled again by 1-2 weeks into the length. However it remains with the very much limited Kurspotenzial of 1.640 points.

Illustration 3: 5-Minuten-Chart NDX



Result:
The announced direction change should be final. However there is a thick support, which applies to break through it with 1.570+, if the Abwaertspotenzial to 1,450 is to be exhausted fully. To beginning of the week it will give first a lateral movement between 1.597-1.611.