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Does anybody still think the sky is falling here?
Well earnings are out. Stock was up 5.82% today, and up another .20 cents after hours already and climbing! Earnings were .79 cents a share based on diluted shares, now at 78,863,299 shares OS, so EXM stock should make a solid recovery from here. That puts earnings for the last three quarters at $4.03/share (or $3.62 a share adjusted for recent share issue dilution). So the current price is not far from 1 times earnings (ignoring the 4th quarter disaster last year). Even if the BDI goes no higher, this stock looks like a very under priced survivor to me.
Won't be surprised to see it gap up 10 to 15% at the open tomorrow.
If I am reading it right, stock holders equity is up 40% based on cash from the resent stock sales, at $1,400,973,000.
1400973000/78863299= $17.76/share book value for EXM!!!!! Even after the recent stock sale dilution.
Boy Howdy, you can say that again. Like a rocket, blasted off into orbit, and no news except pending investor conference announced. Looks like the bottom and buying opportunity was yesterday. OH, have you heard about Buffet, annpounced this morning he is buying BN raillroad for 44 billion, the Dow Tran index jumped up 5% on that news, and I think set the bottom. Time will tell.
Well my back of the napkin looks more like this. They issued more shares in 2 tranches, IIRC, and increased the total shares outstanding by about 50-70% (apx, or 80%?), I forget, but enough to dilute earnings (or dilute losses). I have access to several reports in my Fidelity account. Some have huge mistakes and contradictions, but Thomas Reutors shows losses for the last 2 quarters, and Market edge shows numbers I recall seeing during the last 2 earnings reports, the last 2 quarters, which is $2.22 1st qtr, and $1.05 2nd qtr, per share earnings last 2 quarters which rallied the stock price, before the new shares were issued, which hurt the stock price. So my knapkin calcs says this quarter might be $3/2/1.7= apx $.88/share if nothing else changed.
No doubt some things changed. So if you ignore last years 4th quarter loss where they wrote down the fleet value of the 2008 merger fleet (they reported a loss of $8.90 a share as a result), then use 2.22 + 1.05 +.88 estimate, divide by 3, and multiply by 4 you have an annual earnings rate for three quarters (ignoring the one time even in 4th quarter of 2008), you get 1.38*4= $5.53/share in earnings average estimate, but that mixes pre and post new share sales, so the calc is more dificult.
So if I take [(2.22+1.05)/2 for 2 quarters]/1.7 for dilution I get .96 per quarter estimate for a 3 quarter period, so .96*4= $3.84/year in earnings (ignore the one time write off of ship asset values in Dec 2008) and figuring for recent stock dilution.
One of my reports shows the EXM book value as $24/share! I doubt includes the recent stock dilution or cash effect of selling stock either, so book value may be more like $9-12/share now? but still way above the current market price.
Don't know if that is before the ship value write down or after, or if includes the cash raised in the recent stock offering.
Right now the biggest problem is the market is in a down trend (inspite a 3 week rally in the BDI!!!) and EXM is in a down trend. I have already needed blood transfusions staying long with EXM this year. I just hope they have a nice earnings surprise this time.
I see earnings estimates from -.05 to +$1.00 for eight analysts estimates on one I am reading(so they have no clue what to expect either, LOL). One report shows 86% and the other 16% institutional holders (so that data is nearly worthless),
Market edge shows the price to book value as .23!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Buying the stock for 1/4th of book value!!!!!
By the way If I have not already posted this, the BDI futures and spot prices were up smartly, again today at:
http://www.exchange.imarex.com/bdi-futures-closing-prices/category1048.html
What is sad, is that none of the 4 recent research reports at Fidelity from the big shots ( S&P, Reuters, Thomas, and so on, made any note of the2 huge stock issues this summer that nearly double the shares outstanding). Guess they thought it was too trivial?
Well I gues the only real way to get the right answers is to pull up the terribly boring 100 page SEC filings and drill through them for the real numbers.
I am hoping for a nice earnings number like $1.00-1.50, but it may be wishfull thinking.
.02 earnings estimate, are you serious! Why so low?
But thanks for the post. Earnings are tomorrow after market close, right?
Warrants are like call options in some ways. Not an expert myself, but they have an expiration date like options, in this case 2014 IIRC. They have a strike price, or exercise price, in this case they can be traded for stock at a $1.34 (IRRC) if the stock price goes over $1.34 for some period of time (I forget the details on the H warrants, they are in the last SEC filing). The warrants trade for less than the stock price until the stock gets near the strike price, they get over the strike price once near that price. Basically a lot like a call option in most ways.
One difference I think is the conversion cash for converting a warrant goes to COIN. Options the cash is between buyer and seller of the option.
There are three COIN issues trading right now. COINW is the H warrants that were co-issued last month with COIN stock as COINU (one share of stock and one warrant). Some of the COINW warrants have been split and are now trading separately as COINW. The COINW price dropped about 30% today. The COIN stock was down only a little bit today, so the COINU which is one share of COIN plus one share of COINW warrants (type H warrants) was down about 16%, sort of a half and halve averaging thing. The warrants can be converted to stock at about $1.34, so Fridays drop in COIN share price and the near flat price today took a chuck out of the value of the warrants finally, today instead of Friday. We have 2 problems here. One is more stock to go around and not enough new committed long shareholders yet, the other is the market seems to be in a medium term correction down movement.
I have seen COIN make huge upside movements on news, so I will not risk selling this low. Instead I am gathering cash for the next low (where it is) to buy more. This really should be a $2 stock.
Also they will be forced pretty soon to get back up over $1 to keep NASDAQ happy, which they have proved they can do several times this year.
I was real tempted to buy more COINU and COINW today.
I agree, but keep in mind there is no assurance the FRE common stock holders won't be wiped out in a refinancing, re-organization someday like the CIT common stock holders today.
Just dawned on me to check the COINW, it is down 35% today, which is why COINU is down 16%.
There is a fire sale on COINU today. Not sure why, but it looks pretty cheap, and COIN looks to have bottomed, unless the market correction down has not finished. COINU is temping me right now.
You answered your own question, yes it is both. Also it might spook some trading investors as FRE is at risk of a total loss to common stock holders just as CIT was. Risk by association. But mainly the market and financials. They tend to move together. Also it will attract more traders tomorrow.
Don't misunderstand, I am still long on FRE, but I am playing both sides now as I expect huge increased volatility in the price this week, and just wanted share my thoughts.
For some it would or will be a buying opportunity. For others, if I am right they will know what is happening ahead of time, and maybe not get as spooked as they would other wise.
Heads up folks! CIT just filed for bankruptcy. Good chance (IMHO) that FRE will take a hit in the morning and the rest of the market will open way down on this news as well, considering how jittery the market already is based on last week.
http://www.reuters.com/article/BANKSL/idUSN0140886320091101
Here is my thinking. TARP had put money into CIT earlier this year, but now the news says TARP will loose that money, and the government let CIT go under with out more help. CIT Common will be wiped out. So some FRE longs may get spooked tomorrow, like they have in recent weeks, and sell. And the market will most like take a huge hit down too, which will drag FRE down. I will be shopping for cheap calls tomorrow and looking to sell my $1 puts if we drop hard and fast tomorrow.
For now I will keep my longs position and play this with options.
Good luck tomorrow people!
I recall one reactor process we studied where the initial start up conditions affected the product yield as the process reached steady state conditions. There were two possible yields depending on those initial conditions, 10% and 90% yield (% of product produced from the reactants).
But to answer your question, there is no way for us, or me to know. And depending on the reactor design, reaction catalyst and process he is using there may be no way for him to know for sure until he has run many tiresome repeated trials. At this point we would need to take any official press releases he has issued at face value (trust me, LOL!), and possibly with a grain of salt.
I am still way too new here to this stock, and still looking for others here to help fill me in on many details, to make any final judgement on this company so don't read too much into this. I am just trying to clarify a topic I know something about.
Does anyone know how he came up with the catalyst?
Is there any way that I can verify the Canadian grants on a Canadian dot gov web site? The grant news is what I think got my attention in the first place to consider investing in this company, but I am no longer taking most press release news at face value like I use to.
This just turned up in my brokerage news:
Navios Maritime and Navios Maritime Finance Propose Private Offering of $375 Million First Priority Ship Mortgage Notes Due 2017
BY CapIQ
— 09:17 AM ET 10/31/2009
Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. (NM announced that it and Navios Maritime Finance (US) Inc. intend to offer through a private placement, subject to market and other conditions, approximately $375 million of first priority ship mortgage notes due 2017 (the 'Notes'). The Notes will be offered and sold in the United States only to qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the 'Securities Act'), and in offshore transactions to non-United States persons in reliance on Regulation S under the Securities Act. The Notes to be issued by Navios are expected to be guaranteed by all of the subsidiaries that provide a guarantee of Navios Holdings' existing 9-1/2% senior notes due 2014. The Notes will be secured by first priority ship mortgages on 15 drybulk vessels aggregating approximately 1.1 million deadweight tons owned by certain subsidiary guarantors. The net proceeds of the offering are intended to be used to repay borrowings under certain of Navios Holdings' existing credit facilities, as well as to provide additional financing to complete the purchase of two new vessels expected to be delivered in late 2009 and early 2010 (which will then become part of the collateral securing the Notes)."
First I ever heard of NM Finance?
Found a transcript of the 3rd quarter earnings.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/170293-navios-maritime-partners-l-p-q3-2009-earnings-call-transcript?source=email
Interesting. Those 2 are new to me. Good luck with them. I recently moved from a flat lined biotech MF (flat for 4 years) to some of the individual riskier biotech stocks when they got hammered, and 2 of them have risen from the ashes as well. CYTR and MHAN.
Do we have an Ihub biotech board for discussing all the biotechs?
Interesting discussion here.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/170378-geothermal-companies-receive-cost-sharing-grants?source=email
TTNP? Is that the one NVS is buying?
Looking at this chart, this stock is, or is about to be a huge buy! Once it bottoms, if it has not already.
= http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2009/11/1/bitopCoin_Chart_Oct_30_2009.png
This is my first chart post here, so not sure I am doing it the best way? I ran out of edit time to figure out how to get the image to display directly?
Looking at this chart, this stock is, or is about to be a huge buy! Once it bottoms, if it has not already.
= http://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2009/11/1/bitopCoin_Chart_Oct_30_2009.png
BigGreen101,
What DD made you go long here? I am curious as I think I see subtle warning flags (?) in the history, but you seem a little less biased than most longs here, and maybe more knowledgeable based on you earlier comment about scaling. Do you have any concerns left even though you are long?
Regarding scale up "issues" they include heat transfer rates for one. They are very non-linear as you increase the reactor volume, and mixing (fluid mechanics) becomes an issue and is related to heat transfer and reaction kinetics (selectivity for instance), and efficiency.
For some details see:
http://www.allbusiness.com/manufacturing/chemical-manufacturing/1001994-1.html
http://books.google.com/books?id=UqY2sIdsZxwC&pg=PA268&lpg=PA268&dq=chemical+engineering+reactor+scalling+issues&source=bl&ots=fIqZuZaHC3&sig=qkMFRXlfw-LvTLGQDWv6_OvyhdU&hl=en&ei=kt_tSqTRNYjUsQO_-9n1Aw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=7&ved=0CBsQ6AEwBjgo#v=onepage&q=&f=false
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a776283076
http://www.pnl.gov/microcats/aboutus/research/ott.html
If you want more details, google it or sign up for a 5 year Chemical engineering degree plan just to get your feet wet on the topic.
I'm on board here. I was told by a TA a few weeks back that it was time sell NVS, but I held. Glad I did, as NVS broke out over a multi year upper resistance trend line at about $50, and turned that line into support. We are still holding above that support in spite of the recent massive market down turn. Biotechs like this one seem to hold up much better than other sectors in a sell off like we are seeing right now.
Nice DD work Kenny!
Keep up the good work. That one will be very hard to explain away.
Chemical Reactor designs always have scale up design issues. It is the nature of the beast. Any chemical engineer will tell you that. It is those very scale up issues that keep most bio-reactors in the pharmaceutical industry under a certain volume size. Not all chemical reactors are batch, or bulk vessel designs. Some are plug flow, continuous reactors.
I have been seriously considering investing in this company, working on more DD first, and found some disturbing background information on the CEO. I have not come to any final conclusion except to continue doing more DD, as the tech sounds interesting, but I am VERY concerned about this:
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/columnists/story.html?id=13b7038a-34b0-4b26-94f7-c1cc0deebd9d
And even more disturbing is the stock of the company he was at last as CEO, LXES is nearly worthless now. Just search LXES and the search Mantra's CEO name.
Here is 3 year chart going to back to when he was the LXES Ceo.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Stock/LXES
http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=lxes#getQuote
If any one can explain this and back up the explanations I would like to hear them.
When fear takes hold of the market many good (or great?) stocks like this one get run down to even lower bargain basement prices. I still recall some stocks so cheap in march it was obscene. One was an oil and gas stock in a Fidelity Mutal fund for .20 (which i bought), that hit a $2.00 high 3 weeks ago (I sold too early at $1.20, RAME). Now back at $1.50, and heading south again. Real oil and gas company. So no stock price is save during volatile conditions like this week. Note the VIX is way up again this week and broke out to the top side.
COIN has been far more stable (less volatile than RAMR) than that in the last 52 weeks, but if panic sets in, in the next week or two, many great stocks could get hammered again like in March. I don't expect anything like the March lows, but the last correction in June-July isthe likely pattern that has started, so I am keeping some dry powder, and some Puts in play so as to have cash to buy more stocks at the next big lows which I expect we might see in the next 2 weeks.
I won't be surprised to see COIN hit .50 in the next 2-3 weeks, unless it comes out with timely news that holds it up on panic days (note that my APWR stock I am also long on did just that during the Wed & Fri panic sell offs this week, and Coin could do the same!) in Which case this price might be the last bargain level, or bottom. So don't be surprised if it bounces between .50 and $1.00 the next few weeks, as it is not COIN's fault, but the recent highs and fear (mixed with greed) making the market more volatile again like it was earlier this year.
Bottom line is for potential investors looking at COIN, IMHO if you don't own any yet, this is a good price to START buying some shares (but don't jump all in with everything!), but hold some cash too for a possibly lower add over the current market correction (next 2-8 weeks)should it continue. Buy it for the long haul looking at 9-18 months for it to go to the $2-$4 range, depending on how the overall market performs.
Coin was far less financially sound 6 months, 12 months and 18 months ago, than it is now! And the current price (IIRC) is about 20% of it's 2 year high, and 1/3 of its 4-6 month ago high. Long story short this is good stock to start accumulating this month, even if it goes lower.
I don't think RWE is public, is it?
Nice piece of surprise news on a bloody October day for sure! When I noticed the close up in price on the worst down day for the market in many months, I had to check for news here. Sure enough a cool large DOE grant!
We beat the major indexes big time here today!
So does that qualify this as a THERMAL (HOT) stock today? LOL!
Nothing is too big to fail, but I am long here. Price held up surprisingly well here today in spite of a near 3% crash of the major indexes. WE outperfomed the SPX and INDU today folks!
Wonder if it was partly the news. All I know is we seem to be in a strong support area. Good to know as the overall markets seem to be bound for lower lows. My best guess is we are heading lower market wise as the dollar bounces up, and oil, gold and stocks slide lower, till about mid November.
I did, and I am am keeping my longs like this one, and I bought some oil stock puts last week at the last highs to CMA as the markets slide in this current correction phase. Then if I am lucky enough to pick the bottom I will sell the puts and buy more stock(s).
I thought NM's price held up quite well today. It outperformed the major indexes which were WAY down. It is also near a 52 week high and holding, with a huge apx 12% dividend!
Interesting. I thought NM was also posting earnings this week, but I guess not. Sometimes the news wires confuse NM with NMM. Capex rates took a nice jump up again on the laestt BDI rates, taking the BDI up 1% again.
In case no one has noticed (LOL) we seem to be in a medium term down turn correction in the markets (except for the dollar which is in rally mode). I bought what I think is some real cheap short term insurance for further temporary large moves against my long position in FRE. And they are still cheap as hell. I bought $1 Dec puts for FRE, at only .05 each. We were at 1.06 at one point just last week when the market was still higher than todays new (recent) low. What I can not figure out is why the $1 puts are still so cheap. Something to watch anyway.
Actually we held up pretty well today considering how bad the current market direction is going. We are much closer to a bottom here on COIN than many other stocks are right now. But to be honest we seem to be in a major market correction down trend, at least until mid November (that is my target for a market low and a rebound as options expire the third week of Nov, then maybe a good rally for 2 weeks, and then another run to test lows into the last 2 weeks of Dec. I expect to see a large volatile trading range trading lower for a while now compared to the last 6 months.
I am holding my stocks like this one, and I bought puts on some oil stocks last week which are already dropping (stocks dropping, puts rising) and I expect them to drop a lot lower based on oil, the dollar, and other market dynamics, which are more predictable than a sometimes news driven stock like COIN.
My idea being to be able to hold my tech / green longs like COIN for the long haul, and protect myself from any losses caused by following the broader market. If my plan works I sell the puts in 2 weeks for a large gain and buy more COIN if it has gone down or is still on sale at today's prices.
I think we still have COIN earnings coming up soon, and some will see the change in the book value that is up 1000% since the new issue!
This stock is selling now for twice the cash it has in the bank, and 1/3 of its recent high! Hell of deal. If you wait a week or 2 to buy you might get a lower price, but you risk news coming out and pushing it back over a dollar any time. Even it drops another 50% (which I seriously doubt) I am far less worried about the long term future of the stock than any one I hold right now. If you are new to the stock I would scale in with buys over the next 2-3 weeks in case it gets 10-20% lower on a few more bad days like today, but in six months I doubt we will ever be below $1 again.
That plus Mr. Market seems to want to track lower for a while now with a correction. I have bought some puts on other stuff to cover any market losses near term so I can stay long with stocks like this one. Once the current down trend (Markets) bottoms I will sell the puts and buy more longs like this one. I don't dare sell a stock like this one, as big news is not predictable like some market moves are. Just my current strategy.
But I will be watching for anymore fire sale prices here to buy!
The answer is yeas, the project size is equal to half of annual plant capacity. Total project size was 1.5 billion dollars. And it breaks APWR into the largest wind market in the world! Also of interest is that APWR owns part of the company that will own part of the wind energy farm.
I think a few are just risking taking some of their cash out to play other stocks that got hammered yesterday, and rose today. Risky as this stock could jump any day on unexpected news, but it could also drift lower for a while.
I am long, but I also bought some real cheap $1 Dec puts earlier this week (.05 each) to protect from any more blind side attacks like the last one.