Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd.(fka EXMCQ)

[Ecomike]

Well my back of the napkin looks more like this. They issued more shares in 2 tranches, IIRC, and increased the total shares outstanding by about 50-70% (apx, or 80%?), I forget, but enough to dilute earnings (or dilute losses). I have access to several reports in my Fidelity account. Some have huge mistakes and contradictions, but Thomas Reutors shows losses for the last 2 quarters, and Market edge shows numbers I recall seeing during the last 2 earnings reports, the last 2 quarters, which is $2.22 1st qtr, and $1.05 2nd qtr, per share earnings last 2 quarters which rallied the stock price, before the new shares were issued, which hurt the stock price. So my knapkin calcs says this quarter might be $3/2/1.7= apx $.88/share if nothing else changed.

No doubt some things changed. So if you ignore last years 4th quarter loss where they wrote down the fleet value of the 2008 merger fleet (they reported a loss of $8.90 a share as a result), then use 2.22 + 1.05 +.88 estimate, divide by 3, and multiply by 4 you have an annual earnings rate for three quarters (ignoring the one time even in 4th quarter of 2008), you get 1.38*4= $5.53/share in earnings average estimate, but that mixes pre and post new share sales, so the calc is more dificult.

So if I take [(2.22+1.05)/2 for 2 quarters]/1.7 for dilution I get .96 per quarter estimate for a 3 quarter period, so .96*4= $3.84/year in earnings (ignore the one time write off of ship asset values in Dec 2008) and figuring for recent stock dilution.

One of my reports shows the EXM book value as $24/share! I doubt includes the recent stock dilution or cash effect of selling stock either, so book value may be more like $9-12/share now? but still way above the current market price.

Don't know if that is before the ship value write down or after, or if includes the cash raised in the recent stock offering.

Right now the biggest problem is the market is in a down trend (inspite a 3 week rally in the BDI!!!) and EXM is in a down trend. I have already needed blood transfusions staying long with EXM this year. I just hope they have a nice earnings surprise this time.

I see earnings estimates from -.05 to +$1.00 for eight analysts estimates on one I am reading(so they have no clue what to expect either, LOL). One report shows 86% and the other 16% institutional holders (so that data is nearly worthless),

Market edge shows the price to book value as .23!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Buying the stock for 1/4th of book value!!!!!

By the way If I have not already posted this, the BDI futures and spot prices were up smartly, again today at:

http://www.exchange.imarex.com/bdi-futures-closing-prices/category1048.html

What is sad, is that none of the 4 recent research reports at Fidelity from the big shots ( S&P, Reuters, Thomas, and so on, made any note of the2 huge stock issues this summer that nearly double the shares outstanding). Guess they thought it was too trivial?

Well I gues the only real way to get the right answers is to pull up the terribly boring 100 page SEC filings and drill through them for the real numbers.

I am hoping for a nice earnings number like $1.00-1.50, but it may be wishfull thinking.