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RAF -two time frames apply
Expedited appeal- obviously much tighter time frame and suggestion is expedited appeal would be over by August /September
If not expedited appeal hearing it was suggested could take at least 12 months from Du decision -possibly longer
That’s as I understand it from various posts/announcements
Whether court will accept expedition of appeal remains to be seen- generics do not object to expedition
Alm
flubber - fish have now been recruited to take the lead role (Singer)-Covington remain instructed - so a new lead firm will run the appeal - with Covington assisting
Alm
Nevada Court-I am sure HDG already dealt with this - that it was the generics who determined by their earlier actions that the case had to be heard in Nevada - thus not of Amarins choice
Maybe HDG will confirm on his return
Alm
Excellent work send to amarin/ Covington
Alm
Brilliant - send urgently to amarin/ Covington
Alm
DM - you agree article ? Article suggests 7percent chance of success on a distorted way of assessing - you suggest crappy .appeal prospect .. yet then propose 50 percent chance of success - not sure I follow the logic ? Alm
Seeking alpha - amarin being acquired not in the cards
What a shallow poor quality analysis - particularly of the suggested chance of success in appeal - maybe the appearance of this inadequate only skim the surface article I seems to disguise the opposite !
Alm
Surge in share price - Judge Du has now actually read her own decision - realised it was a bag of crap and has announced in favour of Amarin
Alm
8 - confess to not being intimately familiar with USA judicial arrangements but I would just question the point you made - two things the magnitude of how far off plot Du was in reaching her decision - and the magnitude of impact of the actual decision she made -effectively wiping out several billion of shareholder value - both these matters I would suggest will be carefully assessed post appeal as to the direction of her career
This was Not litigation over a car finance repossession or a simple neighbour boundary dispute
How many big costly mistakes will she be allowed to rack up ??
But if she has any sense of personal responsibility one can only hope she might retire her career
Alm
Superb detailed analysis... please ensure it goes to Amarin
Alm
Yes this document merely refers to the decision that the patents were found obvious - that is not an issue in itself that can be mediated upon - the patents either are obvious or not - the court has said they are - that is what is to be appealed
Alm
Future quote “and being lead counsel on behalf of Amarin in securing the patent reversal decision in the Federal Court gave me immense pleasure - a decision which firmly re established precedent as to how such litigation should be considered in the district court and gives small enterprising companies who invest years and countless millions of dollars in developing innovative and life changing drug therapies for the American public that their invaluable effort will not be blown away by a perverse and ill advised judicial decision”
I will enjoy reading such ... Hell won’t we all !
Alm
DM - if only it were that easy ...not sure how much you have read about covid 19 but rest assured this for the aged and the vulnerable is a complex highly virulent killer - I sincerely hope it does not bite your ass or any of your family
Every possible avenue of prevention/treatment needs to be explored ... whether V has a part to play remains to be seen but a drug with effectively no side effects has a head start
Thus far there has been no silver bullet / pill as is evidenced by 175k deaths and multiples of that number hospitalised - and the only effective method of non contraction-isolation - leading to the biggest economic crisis ever
I would not so glibly write off the part V may play -
Alm
Brilliant work - as one lawyer to another I stand completely in awe ... please all sent to Amarin and their legal team
Keep digging !! Alm
Can
1-there will be no decision of substance on anything until after appeal- unless. BO offer is made before - I see no prospect of such
2 Thero has led company well thus far - he suffered the patent loss decision against expectations- if they had won we would be singing his praises
3 the reps - they will keep the good loose the bad -
Alm
JL - I hear what you say -I suspect we all know exactly what the generics hope to achieve and how they expect to achieve it-the decision is wrong on every level -it will be reversed- but on what particular basis the decision is overturned frankly does not matter- it can be for any and for all of the reasons that have been rehearsed- will the appellate court announce it as a decision based on principle? In an ideal world that would be nice ... but ....
Hell let’s just win the appeal
We have to look now at Amarin where it is and not where it might have been - at 6 dollars it’s a safe bet - because if they win (the appeal and no matter how) you win big - if they loose the downside is probably little to non existent Alm
Amarin - choices
Share price was -say 25 now 6
Duty to shareholders - to obtain maximum value -but what does this mean and how does it work in reality? The 25 dollar share price reflected shareholder hope - of what ? - a buyout ahead at even higher levels - or future profits ahead - but who are these shareholders?longs on this board- maybe some ... but the reality is shareholders come and go— there have been huge volumes of shares sold and bought - who or what represents this mythical shareholder to whom this duty lies - it’s a transient beast largely-is it this that the board/Theo look to placate?- to satisfy ? -the reality is that the board/Theo are more likely wedded to the idea of the company and to its employees- including themselves -than to the whims of shareholders ever changing as they are-they will do what they consider best serves the company and its employees rather than trying to massage the gratitude of this mystical shareholder beast
So what? Well maybe we should be thinking differently about Amarin and it’s future?
Some things are easy to work out that benefits the company it’s employees and it’s shareholders
1-win the appeal - do that - everything’s rosy - all happy - company goes forward share price goes up - hell the co might get bought out-profits lie ahead
2-appeal is lost - so now what ? What impact- shareholders - share price falls/“wallows - but the company continues - but how ? Do we make what we can out of america - how ? What level of profit?- delay generics entry - obvious - settle with generics - what terms?- does a settlement cost so much that we can’t make a profit in USA ahead -and how do we deal with all generics- not just the 3 on the scene - make our own generic - why not if you can make a profit - the truth is these are all moving feasts we outside the company have no real handle on the economics of what is best option- but it might be a low value small profit company in USA ahead - cut their cloth make what profit you can - any profit -for company and it’s employees this is what counts - whatever keeps company going -cash rich company presently will want in so far as possible to stay cash rich so that will influence decisions and spend - satisfying the mythical beast shareholder?? Not on the agenda in this scenario of lost appeal -
3-Europe / row - if Bo is written off by board as not going happen immediately ish after appeal - either win -a higher level possibility or loose - lower level possibility-then the company will decide where best profit lies -might entail going it alone / partnering across Europe even country by country as per Canada- we don’t know enough about the economics - the anticipated profits from each Will define what will be
4- if the appeal is not won the landscape for this company changes -it will be a how best do we continue as a company and for it’s employees and make the best profit we can out of what we are left with - shareholders - well what can the company do other than keep going and try make a profit
-sure if someone comes in with a BO offer at any time we will consider it ... but is that really going to happen now in the face of uncertainty ?
winning the appeal is the only option
Odds of winning - ??-higher than 50-50 ?- 60 -40?? listen again carefully to the Jefferies/Professor from Havard interview-and because it was so soon after decision there was no discussion as to where serious factual error had occurred
Benefits of winning ....simply immense - all energy effort persuasion and cash will be put into this endeavour
Everything else is in the cue behind it to be resolved if and when thereafter
Share price - between now and then will no doubt mirror increased or decreased assessments of chances of winning and vague guesses of where ever value might lie if appeal lost
Those who want to stay long are placing their bets on the appeal being won - my money is staying in on this one
Why? - because it’s the best option -On my assessment and in my circumstances - and not least I will great satisfaction from the appalling decision made by Du being overturned
And on the downside losing - will the share price go much lower - - not a great deal there’s still some value in there
Alm
Kiwi- yes solicitior UK- thus not intimately familiar with USA courts/patents but from much reading I consider the FC appellate system is far more inclined to intervene and set the mark than in UK
-logic transcends jurisdictions-most importantly here justice demands that “Right will prevail “
This terrible wrong will indeed be righted.
I can’t tell you how many times I have passed through Clapham Junction ! Alm
Amarin clearly had no choice but to go to trial to protect their patents i-the generics were unprepared to settle - the stakes were too high for generics to settle for a long off entry /pay their fees deal - they wanted the long shot go at winning - and In litigation nothing is certain -and boy they got very lucky
They can now sit and wait and do nothing - hope amarin loses appeal and they are in -all a long shot and taken a little time but cost them peanuts to get this far
Amarin has no option but to continue with appeal - win it and they are back on track - loose it and they are in reality no worse off than they are now - they can try delay generics coming in threaten their own generic launch and so forth - they have Europe and rest of world to work on
Maybe not as great as it could have been but they will just keep on going and make the best of it
Settlement now ... no chance - amarin are just moving on and their primary driver is to endeavour to cover every corner of the appeal to ensure that this time that it is the generics that are on the wrong side of litigation - and at the same time taking every step to ensure the generics are wrong footed if and when they do try and enter market
Alm
Hamoa -I agree with 8 as to the vital importance of Du on Mori - whilst you have done an incredible job on K with HDG - Mori remains unpolished in a one document says it all !!!
Mc198? (Numbers there may be wrong )and Mitre have informed greatly on Mori
I would love to see you pull together all the factors as to Mori-other posts from Mc and mitre can be of great assistance in this-
so please undertake as to Mori ??
Your coverage of both Mori And K will be of huge benefit in our understanding of the basis of the appeal
Alm
HDG ... yes absolutely -anyone from the 7 billion of this planets population - save one ... Judge Du
-the damage she has caused is beyond comprehension
If and when she becomes aware of her appalling judicial failing if she has any self respect she should resign
There will not be many Judges in the history of patent litigation who will have written off so many billions in the value of a company by being so disastrously wrong in their judicial function
Alm
Hamoa /HDG-a most important point arising from this - we must not loose sight of the fact that the appeal court must consider - as Du should have done - each of the individual patents - amarin did not need to win on all of the patents in this litigation - just one would do - or so it is my understanding this particular patent - 677 seems to be be robustly (a JTism) protected from a finding of obviousness within the context of the evidence and the patent to which you both refer in this analysis
This issue was -split findings on the numerous patents in litigation -referred to at some length in the Jefferson interview - as I understand it it is a rarity in patent litigation for ALL ( as in this amarin case) patents to be ruled as invalid
The fact that multiple patents were in litigation here has not been deeply considered- save now by reference to 677
I suspect further detailed examination of each of the patents and what each actually assert / and how each was dealt with evidentially may throw up further fertile lines of attack for the appeal - has Du considered each patent in detail and without serious error as to findings of fact relative to each particular patent
Hamoa /HDG-a most important point arising from this - we must not loose sight of the fact that the appeal court must consider - as Du should have done - each of the individual patents - amarin did not need to win on all of the patents in this litigation - just one would do - or so it is my understanding
this particular patent - 677 seems to be be robustly (a JTism) protected from a finding of obviousness within the context of the evidence and the patent to which you both refer in this analysis
This issue -split findings on the numerous patents in litigation -was referred to at some length in the Jefferson interview - as I understand it it is a rarity in patent litigation for ALL ( as in this amarin case) patents to be ruled as invalid
The fact that multiple patents were in litigation here has not been deeply considered- save now by reference to 677
I suspect further detailed examination of each of the patents and what each actually assert / and how each was dealt with evidentially may throw up further fertile lines of attack for the appeal - has Du considered each patent in detail and without serious error as to findings of fact relative to each particular patent
But equally if I be right on appeal we only need win on one patent being considered valid to stop generics
Your views as ever would be most welcome
Alm
Thank goodness !! Alm
Brilliant also ... send to amarin / Covington ... don’t let them miss any of this
Alm
Hamoa .... brilliant ...got Du tied up and in the bag on this one ... send to amarin/ Covington
Alm
No doubt there will be good reps retained from the original 400 and maybe a number from the latest recruited batch- but one suspects those recruits that do not cut the mustard quickly will be let go and not replaced until appeal resolved - they will prudently trim their staff cost overhead but such would not be the subject of public announcement - it will just occur over time as part of effort to conserve cash - and of course they will take into account how long it takes to do well as a sales rep .. but no doubt this even more acutely considered presently
Alm
HDG- would not the “perfect “panel actually be derived from two out of a panel of three given that majority of two prevails - ?? perfect will just be two as to outcome in such circumstances -not sure how you calculated your odds and just wanted clarification - we don’t need 3 of the procedural sticklers just two in any given panel
Appreciate your clarification and recalculation if you had not considered this way of looking at it
Best wishes Alm
I greatly appreciate your view ... and your kind advice is well received and in the spirit in which it is given-let’s see this through - my regret and thoughts are for those who have suffered avery damaging loss consequent to this awful judicial decision and from which a great many will never recover -let us trust wrong is in due course put right
Alm
Long time investor in Amarin 100,000 shares but at an average of 3.5 to correctly state the position-however since the trial outcome I have added a further 14,000
What are we trying to establish here? I focus on amarin and Vascepa —do I retain my view as to the company and its product ?- yes - nothing has changed save that a district court judge dealing with her first patent case trial- a highly complex and no doubt challenging one -made an unexpected but more than that completely wrong decision .This decision in my view from all that I have read and considered will be reversed on appeal. All investors have the right to consider any and all factors which may be thrown into the debate as to the various basis upon which this appeal will be conducted by the layers representing amarin.
Whether I am a good or a bad investor is a question which I will be content to allow you to assess following the outcome of the appeal - for my part I will accept your judgement with good grace. Alm
Well you clearly think you are !! Alm
8 - you are right off point here... the Mori and K serious errors of fact will be very significant in this appeal - the correct interpretation of them were addressed in the trial by Amarin - the Judge got it plain wrong and this led to her finding of obviousness- the procedural failings of Du are a second limb to the appeal - no appeal lawyer worth his salt will abandon these factual errors - the first limb -in the pursuit of this decision being overturned on appeal - we are indebted to Mc198 and Mitre for their work on this
You have no right to demand they desist from their efforts - let the tribunal decide on where the merits of appeal lie
Alm
Mitra - you must send all your posts to amarin. They are the stuff upon which appeals are won - I am a lawyer - please do not underestimate the importance of all of this as to the appeal - your work is simply brilliant and vital to a clear understanding - by amarin and Covington - as to serious factual error by Du - I understand your modesty and it is to your credit but there are huge matters at stake here
Alm
Mori and K are BOTH serious errors of fact upon which Du relied to reach her finding of obviousness - both errors in Mori and K must and will be taken together by the FC in this appeal -the appeal be won on the limb that Du finding of obviousness was plain wrong - the FC don’t even need to bother going onto procedural error - although no don’t they will to reestablish the correct precedent
Mitra is a brilliant expert in these matters - not just a question of him knowing more than Du - he is an expert
Vital that amarin / Covington are made aware of all as to both Mori And K
Alm
Mitra please send to amarin Covington
Mori and K will win this appeal
Alm
Hamoa-Mori-vital you give your view
You did the most brilliant assessment of the impact of the serious error of fact as to Du in respect of the Japanese study K-
The position is that there is serious error of fact by Du in Mori- yesterday’s post of HDG and Mitra debate this - Mitra-is an expert on these matters and is interpretation on Mori is compelling
There are on this premise not one but two serious errors of fact which Du relied upon to find obviousness. Can you consider and set out your view -
On this basis appeal will be won because the FC need not move on to consider procedural error by Du - although presumably it could in an attempt to reinforce precedent in the DC
Two threads of failure by Du persist
Serious factual error x 2 - Mori and K
Procedural error
If ever any appeal should be won it is this one
Your setting this out would be immensely appreciated by the board and indeed amarin/ Covington
Alm
Please send to amarin /Covington -vital they have-Alm
Please send to amarin /Covington -vital they have-Alm
Send to amarin/Covington - vital they have Alm
HDG send this to amarin/ Covington- but also Mitra response - vital - Mori remains a serious error of finding of fact by Du as are her findings as to the Japanese study - both these serious errors completely negate the basis upon which she asserts that the patents are obvious
The appeal will be won ...on this basis - although it could also be won on her procedural failings - the appeal court needs not get that far because obvious has erroneously been established
Will be interesting to see nonetheless if the appeal court goes on to address the procedural issue and thus reinforce the long established and correct approach that must be applied in district court
Alm