Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[alm2]

Amarin - choices
Share price was -say 25 now 6
Duty to shareholders - to obtain maximum value -but what does this mean and how does it work in reality? The 25 dollar share price reflected shareholder hope - of what ? - a buyout ahead at even higher levels - or future profits ahead - but who are these shareholders?longs on this board- maybe some ... but the reality is shareholders come and go— there have been huge volumes of shares sold and bought - who or what represents this mythical shareholder to whom this duty lies - it’s a transient beast largely-is it this that the board/Theo look to placate?- to satisfy ? -the reality is that the board/Theo are more likely wedded to the idea of the company and to its employees- including themselves -than to the whims of shareholders ever changing as they are-they will do what they consider best serves the company and its employees rather than trying to massage the gratitude of this mystical shareholder beast
So what? Well maybe we should be thinking differently about Amarin and it’s future?
Some things are easy to work out that benefits the company it’s employees and it’s shareholders
1-win the appeal - do that - everything’s rosy - all happy - company goes forward share price goes up - hell the co might get bought out-profits lie ahead
2-appeal is lost - so now what ? What impact- shareholders - share price falls/“wallows - but the company continues - but how ? Do we make what we can out of america - how ? What level of profit?- delay generics entry - obvious - settle with generics - what terms?- does a settlement cost so much that we can’t make a profit in USA ahead -and how do we deal with all generics- not just the 3 on the scene - make our own generic - why not if you can make a profit - the truth is these are all moving feasts we outside the company have no real handle on the economics of what is best option- but it might be a low value small profit company in USA ahead - cut their cloth make what profit you can - any profit -for company and it’s employees this is what counts - whatever keeps company going -cash rich company presently will want in so far as possible to stay cash rich so that will influence decisions and spend - satisfying the mythical beast shareholder?? Not on the agenda in this scenario of lost appeal -
3-Europe / row - if Bo is written off by board as not going happen immediately ish after appeal - either win -a higher level possibility or loose - lower level possibility-then the company will decide where best profit lies -might entail going it alone / partnering across Europe even country by country as per Canada- we don’t know enough about the economics - the anticipated profits from each Will define what will be
4- if the appeal is not won the landscape for this company changes -it will be a how best do we continue as a company and for it’s employees and make the best profit we can out of what we are left with - shareholders - well what can the company do other than keep going and try make a profit
-sure if someone comes in with a BO offer at any time we will consider it ... but is that really going to happen now in the face of uncertainty ?
winning the appeal is the only option
Odds of winning - ??-higher than 50-50 ?- 60 -40?? listen again carefully to the Jefferies/Professor from Havard interview-and because it was so soon after decision there was no discussion as to where serious factual error had occurred
Benefits of winning ....simply immense - all energy effort persuasion and cash will be put into this endeavour
Everything else is in the cue behind it to be resolved if and when thereafter
Share price - between now and then will no doubt mirror increased or decreased assessments of chances of winning and vague guesses of where ever value might lie if appeal lost
Those who want to stay long are placing their bets on the appeal being won - my money is staying in on this one
Why? - because it’s the best option -On my assessment and in my circumstances - and not least I will great satisfaction from the appalling decision made by Du being overturned
And on the downside losing - will the share price go much lower - - not a great deal there’s still some value in there
Alm