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Yes, lots of option_vol but ONLY IO counts.
Good analysis.
You are absolutely correct on volume as reported by Schwab too.
Contracts were bought and sold all day, but only "Open Interest" count.
That is, those that lost or won.
Others sold or closed-out their positions throughout the day.
Wasn't sure if Yahoo tallied OI in real-time so looked at Schwab.
Schwab matches Yahoo. At least for strikes looked at. I believe Schwab reports in real-time.
It just amazes me how, now don't know where early in the week, month or quarter where options are priced, but how the big boys could care a less about the stock price as long as they get their "Max-Pain" premiums.
They can always move the SP later.
Good luck, Scruffer
P.S. In all likelihood, Monday will be flat, unless leakage (usually late, 3:30ish EST).
Should we go with the trend or possible break-out direction?
Almost always bring in near Max-Pain (if possible).
Something to understand if think will have last big break up or down.
And $6 it is. Sellers keep most of their premiums.
http://maximum-pain.com/options/amrn
Battle over ~7,700 $6 4/9 Calls.
Of course it was NOT retail.
20,000 contracts * .70 premium * 100 per contract = $1.4M pocketed
1.4M / 4.30 (put option break even point) = 325K+ shares can buy to hold price-up.
Moreover, if stock goes up, the cost of his premium to cover becomes less.
He could begin to cover @ .40, .30, etc.
It was a long day. I was tired.
Here meant,
"To me, usually the smart money sells the option since ~85% end up losing IN SOME aspect".
Of course, when trades 20M shares, 325k isn't a lot.
If fund manager or hedgie, he'll make sure he gets the premium no matter how many shares he has to buy.
He knows $4.30 is a bargain. He'll buy all he has too.
Good luck, Scruffer
Also means has $1.4M to buy ~325K shares.
They can spend $1.4M to buy ~325,000 shares @ $4.30 to keep from exercising.
To me, usually the smart money sells the option since ~85% end up losing is same aspect.
Yes, this is good for LONGS.
Plus, if SP continues to go up, premium declines and can start covering.
Nice find, Scruffer
Final POWER HÖÜR. Where will we go?
That'd be AWESOME. Have an idea by 3:30ish_EST.
Maybe we'll get that last hour surge.
Leakage &/or short squeeze?
Thanks. WAG is still going. Update anytime.
And good morning team UOIP.
Scruff
Is the "Smart_money" buyer or seller of calls?
Lots of early April expiration volume.
Will we see a surge?
Decent volume. ALGOs should break it 1-way soon.
They're just programmed that way (typically).
No reason to hold steady b/c no option expiration.
One big buyer and could get a minor, but very quick short-squeeze.
Here's hoping. I'm just trading it.
It may be about to lose it's short-term steam however.
Then in all probability, relatively dead money for some time.
Good luck, Scruffer
Does it pause b/c lÖÖking 4 more 2 borrow?
The shorts that is.
We could use a big buying blitzkrieg surge.
It happened the other day & almost had a semi-runaway.
Another great one.
Provide counsel. Get your $1M fee.
Comcast is going to need your help if goes to trial.
You're the expert. Those sound fine to me, a lay accounting person.
This is an EXTREMELY KNOWLEDGEABLE & INFORMED board.
Have some very, very smart posters.
I prefer this site (vs. a competitors), even though specializes in pennies.
Lots of posts to catch-up on and read, but the many I have read, I must commend most of you for your analysis, opinions & expertise.
I was in it for the dead-cat (trampoline) bounce, but now trading.
Also, feel terribly bad for those that got caught in the plunge. That sucks. Been there.
It's still a very good value, both short and long term. Gotta buy now or dollar-cost-average in if a believer.
Summary of valuation scenarios:
Scnrio__Peak UGSE Yr__Pk RAGSE__RANPV___Fair Value
S 1_____$3.25B (2026)___$2.175B___$3.40B___$15.40/share
S 2_____$2.75B (2026)___$1.80B____$2.80B___$12.65/share
S 3_____$1.60B (2026)___$1.175B___$1.83B___$8.30/share
S 4_____$1.40B (2026)___$1.07B____$1.66B___$7.50/share
S 5_____$3.25B (2027)___$2.175B___$2.95B___$13.35/share
Current EV___$1.2B (April 2)
Cash, EOY___$648M
LT Debt______$0
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4335841-amarin-ongoing-patent-litigation-and-valuation-scenarios
May play covered calls if get a decent premium (as one member posted to claw his way back).
But then again, risk the surge or buyout.
Wish they had a pipeline.
Probably all hate Johnny-come-latelies, but go where opportunity knocks.
Best of luck, Scruffer
Will Cox go to trial?
That's the question trying to wrap my mind around.
Risk being the guinea pig, exposed and have legal and media pick-up?
It will become PUBLIC.
All the legal articles, forever go down in legal case-study, embarrassment and TV coverage.
To me, this will BECOME entirely to high-profile to ignore.
Not sure what our current established betting line is (since no sports), but give it 80/20, "Will not".
Even though "long uoip" posts, statistically settlement occurs ~96% of the time.
Some have indemnification agreements and all that crap, albeit COMM will be ruined with ChanBond award.
Ideally, want EVERYONE involved to pony-up and buy patents:
• Major 13 (before consolidation) cable companies
• CommScope
• Cisco
• CableLabs
• All Cable DOCSIS 3.0 OEMs
Also, cannot forget, our duration and market got smaller by what specifically infringed.
Lastly, we have "SpecialNeeds" expertise that the insurers will step-in.
Billy, Billy, he's our man. If anyone can do it, Billy can.
Later-Taters, Scruffer
Social Distance. ;-/ Determine settlement.
Since you're our accounting expert doctor, you'd definitely be the most skilled in calculating, determining or "Best guessing" the settlement dollars awarded if NOT made public (referring to WAG).
Being a PhD in accounting and all.
If not disclosed publicly, I guess the dollars should reside somewhere in the notes of the 10-K/Q's of the public companies.
Where and how the public MSOs must disclose (and hide) all that is out of my realm.
That is, of course, if it's not too much to ask.
Scruff
Of course. Can update WAG until resulted.
Or close to it. There could be leakage.
That is a verdict, settlement or buyout made public.
Or agreement reached, even if NDA.
We'll kinda be able to calculate dollars based-on % owned.
AJ may be able to find and "Best guess it" from public company filings.
Latest (I think). Have on personal laptop at work.
Will update Monday, if you or anyone makes a change.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=153916401
Great one. Made me laugh aloud.
Will Smith's home. Once scrolled down, chuckled good.
Saw his smile and thought, "Ok, another celeb doing his part, but then..."
Both tennis and B-Ball court. Nice. McMansion indeed.
Billy will be able to get a similar set-up, if so desires.
Tick-Tock, Scruffer
P.S. An April cold front came through. Burrr.
My issue is INO is 1_of_20 in horse_race.
INO may be one of the leading favorites in the eyes of many however:
• Over 600 existing drugs have been run through computers
• More than 100 drug combinations have been identified for trial treatments
• Chloroquine, Z-Pack (Azithromycin) & Zinc may block COVID-19 cell entry
• This season of COVID-19 may be to late to stop & fade until next season
• Then sitting on "Dead money" until next outbreak
• Want to use this money for major index &/or tech rebound
• China, Japan, South Korea have gained control of the spread
• Vaccines won't be thoroughly tested and ready for 1 year+
• If one treatment found, INO may crash 50%+
• Lastly, Wall Street isn't buying INO. HFTrs are trading it.
I'd like to invest in INO, but waiting now.
Overall, "Targeted" DNA/mRNA vaccines are undoubtedly the future.
Just too much risk for me at this point. Had a good run.
GLTAL, Scruffer
P.S. Who knows though, INO could be acquired tomorrow.
& I'm NOT short. INO just_lost it's MOJO.
I'd NEVER short this.
Now the HFTrs will take it where they take it.
Good luck, Scruffer
P.S. It's like a guy walking up to the craps table and places "Don't pass" when 90% of the table is "With the shooter".
Sorry about that, but don't see it.
3/27 expiration had hefty premiums w/ "60 Minutes".
I think we'll hit $5.08 before $26.08.
I was a believer but the ALGOs are going to bounce this around until proven vaccine.
Or acquisition offer, whichever comes first.
If I'm wrong, I hope you LONGS make a FORTUNE.
Vaccines take time. Wall Street doesn't like either.
Institutional ownership would be at 80-90%.
Yes, they have excellent news, but until A (ANY) vaccine is PROVEN to increase antibodies and bolster the immune system, this stock could drift lower.
It was featured on 60 Minutes.
Has all sorts of grants, DARPA, DOD, CEPI...
Partnered with 3 huge pharma companies (Roche, AZ & Regeneron).
https://www.inovio.com/about#partnerships
And still no movement or can't hold.
Obviously, Dr. Kim and INO must prove themselves to win back "The herd".
JMO and good luck, Scruff
Must show improvement in antibody response.
And bolster immune system.
Then that $26.08 is probable, and then some, and some, and even sÜm more.
INÖ, INÖ, INÖ.
"Targeted" DNA/mRNA vaccines are the future.
We know more novel viruses are coming. It's just a matter of time.
Also, not sure the % reported going to catch is accurate.
The death rate was reported as ~3.4% and we know that isn't true.
If 40% are getting it, then 39% aren't really affected.
INO is the leader in vaccines.
This year, next year, some year--A vaccine will happen.
Scruff
HFTr's ALGOs will bounce this around.
They'll take it down to flush-out the weak hands.
They'll take it up to get investors to chase.
We ride their coattails.
Whatever they decide to do, we're, unfortunately, at their mercy.
Until a vaccine is proven to work, keep expecting this.
Also, only invest what can afford to lose.
Lastly, someone posted this.
https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=ShortSaleCircuitBreaker
Trump's tweets are 1 directional = OUT.
Hear Ye, Hear Ye. Very well written.
I thought the "60 Minutes" segment would drive most investors to Gilead.
They have revenues and where big money goes. It's safe.
And producing a million+ doses of remdesivir, even if doesn't really work.
INO & MRNA have basically no revenues but good pipelines.
With INO's partnerships, one would think lots of potential.
Need evidence one of their vaccines works in NON, non-human primates, i.e. people.
Scruffer
Of course I believe in Billy 100%.
Please post in the yellow sticky "Hot Box".
Thank you, Scruffer
Had a question about "Short Covering".
Will post here as well.
Shorting a stock is selling it first and your account is credited with the money. The investor borrows shares from others (the brokerage firm handles this), but then must "Cover" or buy back his/her shares at some time in the future.
So, if you short a stock at $10 and it goes to $5, you borrowed the shares at $10 and returned them (or bought them back or "Covered" at $5). You made $5 per share (less commission and a small borrowing fee--it's pennies per share to borrow).
But if you short a stock (or borrowed shares) at $10 and there is positive news, the stock will run-up. Buyers will come in and buy, buy, buy, depending on the news of course. Well, many shorts will begin to panic. They'll also try to buy "To cover" their position or return the shares to the brokerage firm.
With everyone buying and the shorts trying to buy as well, the price can go up dramatically.
Moreover, investors know "The shorts" will want to cover so they'll buy even more, forcing the price up above what is typical.
Tomorrow should definitely be exciting.
Scruffer
SHORTS R going 2_take_us_2_a Whole 'Nother Level.
Their mistake will take us up, uP, ÜP.
Maybe not the 52-week high, but never know the markets appetite.
I just love this one.
After "60 Minutes", Monday SHOULD B AWESOME.
The SHORTS, anywhere from 3-10M+ shares, will cover like hell.
This time because new longer-term money may stick around.
Plus, institutional investors will increase their positions.
They've lost so much with COVID-19, no telling how many shares they'll want.
What else do they have to lose (in perspective and totality).
And above all, HFTrs and hedgies will make the SHORTS pay big-time.
Their ALGOs are programmed accordingly.
137.77M = Shares Outstanding
141.77M = Float (Oopsie--that's not lÖÖking gÖÖd shorties) <<<
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INO/key-statistics?p=INO
Plus, vaccine trials should be mentioned about to begin.
And maybe upside surprise and announced sooner than April.
It's going to be fantastic.
I'm stoked for us longs, Scruffer
NP. Anytime. We're all (mostly) on the same team.
Glad to help.
Excited for "60 Minutes" and Monday's opening bell.
Later Nascarrat, Scruff
This is a very misleading statistic.
I believe it's like this though:
For yesterday, March 20th:
24,446,873 = Total Volume
7,469,133 == Sold Volume (on a down tick)
4,514,073 == Short Volume (w/o owning stock, but using borrowed shares)
2,955,060 == Difference (Naked or electronic paperwork hasn't officially been recorded yet).
137.77M = Shares Outstanding
141.77M = Float (4M short here)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INO?p=INO
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INO/key-statistics?p=INO
Anyway you slice it, 3M+ shares MINIMUM (probably > 10M+) are owed.
Also, haven't you noticed "A 1 to 2 minute pause or so" many times?
I think this is SHORTS looking for accounts to borrow shares from.
If you own shares, you may have even received an email asking you if want to "Make money" by lending your shares.
Your link.
https://nakedshortreport.com/company/INO
The Truth About Naked Short Selling: Commentary
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/09/naked-short-selling.asp
Here's the last reported short report.
http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=ino&submit=Short+Quote%E2%84%A2
Scruffer
P.S. SHORTS are going to lose their arse on Monday.
No, Zika & MERS: "Cousins" of COVID-19.
Must hit tab "Platform Development Programs" (just right of "Product Pipeline" within this link).
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=154438999
Also, company partnered with Roche/Genentech as well with INO-5401 & INO-9012.
And they're a monster. Could easily buy INO. Roche ~$212.5B Mkt Cap.
Expand the tab "Partnerships" (At bottom).
https://www.inovio.com/about
Scruff
& ~80% of drug ingredients come from China.
Where this whole thing started. (And others and more certainly to come).
Crazy isn't it.
Trump's going to change that however.
But Congress writes the bills and must pass to the president.
Congress has NOT protected U.S. manufacturing interests and our work force for 4+ decades.
Lastly, when you try to drain the corrupt swamp, you get a lot of swamp gas.
Over and out, Scruff
It's what the market thinks. Hold on 4_Monday.
No doubt, if featured on "60 minutes" in a positive manner, INO WILL EXPLODE TO THE UPSIDE on Monday.
And after this run, not sure what going to do long-term however.
Good luck, Scruffer
#8 in the wold. Now that's extremely impressive.
Scruff