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Hi Thermo,
I wonder if you would indulge me. I'm trying to figure out the potential for OTLK.
Context
1) The projection a few years out of the AMD seems to be around $11B
https://www.globaldata.com/age-related-macular-degeneration-market-will-rocket-11-5bn-2026/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link
2) OTLK estimates a $13B market for FDA-approved anti-VEGFs for ophthalmic use
https://outlooktherapeutics.com/lytenava-overview/
3) There is currently no bevacizumab approved for ophthalmic indications in the United States
https://outlooktherapeutics.com/lytenava-clinical-progress/
4) OFF LABEL Avastin has a lion share of the market (at least US?)
“Based on GlobalData’s primary research, in the US around 50% of patients with wet AMD are prescribed Avastin
https://www.globaldata.com/nhs-victory-bayer-novartis-significant-impact-uk-ophthalmology-sales-says-globaldata/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link
Rough Estimate
IF ONS-5010 is indeed approved for those markets, it seems that a $500M revenue would be a conservative peak sales estimate.
In the world of biotech, I see market cap from 5 to 10 times the revenue. 7 times would mean an MC of $3.5B, or over 7 times the current MC.
Your thoughts?
How does the above estimate jive with your own thoughts? Is that in the ball park of your own estimate?
Thanks for your thought!
Best of luck with your investments!
OTLK is a beast!
I rarely have had the opportunity to get in at $1.00 (exactly), thanks to Thermo on NWBO as you mentioned, and be at > $3 in about a week.
The volume keeps being way above the 90 days average.
Best of luck to your investments!
From $10 to $70 in ~ 2 years, playing with house money.
Not my worst stock :)
Best of luck with your investments!
I've been wondering the same thing danielboog2.
The publication of an article on yet un-PR'ed TLD would provide some folks 'insider type' information. While they may be preparing the medical journal publication, writing it up, I wonder if they would actually submit it before TLD is made public.
They might also prepare for BLA as early as possible after TLD??
Or the data analysis took a lot longer than expected (availability of the independent statisticians, complex data reconciliation, ...)??
But doing the back and forth with peer reviewers on a paper submittal, when you don't even know who the peer reviewers might be ?
Anyways, waiting, and waiting again.
Best of luck to Patients, NWBO, and Longs!
Big gain, big volume!
From my $1 PPS a week ago (thanks Thermo!) or so -> around $1.7 now. The volume, as of now, today is 16,692,055 compared to a 90-Day Average Volume 1,710,128!
Best of luck with your investments!
Form-4:
http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20210202/A6ZZN222Z22222E2222L2CZ2JFOTZH28BN32/
Acquisition at $1 from an OTLK director. Looking good.
Best of luck with your investments :)
I'm starting small and will grow my position as I dig a bit.
From reading a couple articles, it seems to me that the PhIII trial is going after the of current 50% market share, the top contender, Roche's off-label Bevacizumab (Avastin) aiming for an FDA approved comparable product, at a lower price point, and likely better payer support (if FDA approved of course).
The downside is a strong and established competitive landscape against large companies (sales force/marketing/...).
There seems to be a strong upside on good TLD given the current MC at about $100. The $1 / share looks like it could definitely go some ways.
Thanks for the tip. I started an initial (small) position.
Cheers!
About a couple months after data lock, it's possible that CVM now has the data and the report back from the independent statisticians and are working on their side now.
That's why I kept 3/4 of my CVM shares.
Cheers!
Sold 1/4 of my CVM shares, playing with house money now, like CYRX.
I expect a better outcome with NWBO.
Best of luck to Patients, NWBO, and Longs!
SoS: Projected Growth
That's the part of the article that makes the most sense to me:
Jan 20, 2021 8-K
Recent Developments
New SoS on CYRX
Flirting with $80...
My best stock of the last couple of years. Thanks to Smith On Stocks' analysis.
Good luck with your investments!
Flirting with $70 / share.
This has been my best investment on the last couple of years, thanks to SmithOnStocks' analysis of the potential.
Best of luck with your investments!
BAM! 18% up, close: $67.35
I'll be on the lookout for news as to why this PPS action today.
Best of luck with your investments!
May 2021 be the Year of NWBO !
Best of luck to Patients, NWBO, and Longs!
NWBO & the UK / Joan Lappin
Blurb about CCRM Fertility/CYRX and today's PPS action:
Cryoport Inc. Shares Up Nearly 10% on Deal With Fertility Clinic
BY Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
— 1:16 PM ET 12/16/2020
This looks like a preview of what's to come. Dr. Liau by now must be aware of the data and she is starting to put together the comps in her own visuals and her words.
Thanks thermoo, Great screen cap!
Best of luck to Patients, NWBO, and Longs!
I think it's a typo and should read:
"We look at likelihood of success based on the facts we know since we do not have the final data."
or
"We look at likelihood of success based on the facts we know since we don't have the final data."
Best of luck with your investments!
Cryoport and CCRM Fertility Enter Into Agreement
http://ir.cryoport.com/news-releases/2020/12-08-2020-133136400
Pfizer COVID vaccine OK'd in the UK!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/europe/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine-approved-uk.html
That vaccine requires cold transportation: Possible market for CYRX. To be seen, but hopeful!
Best of luck with your investments!
Hi BWIS,
That's an interesting take. I'll keep the other side of this gentleman's bet, i.e. my 'prediction' is that NWBO will announce TLD. I'm taking the most likely side of the bet I think :)
Let's see who ends up 'winning' this gentleman's bet :) And hopefully patients end up the real winners.
Cheers!
My McFly021
You mean this section maybe ?
Donohoe, Nov. 2020 Announcements
(First page)
Archive | November, 2020
https://www.donohoeadvisory.com/2020/11/
Hi BWIS,
You write:
"They will never release results."
That reminds me of the same thing said about the journal article. It took a long time and so some wrote it will never be done.
Or about data lock.
Or about the SAP.
They all got done eventually, after much hand wringing on this MB.
For sure, NWBO are far from fast and they do not seem to anticipate the roadblocks in their planning. But they end up delivering.
Remember the patients' stories, Dr. Liau talks (in the latest, she said the data was in the hands of independent statisticians, we don't know how long they take and when they actually started). Of course they'll announce results. And it does put our own patience to the test, that's for sure. But to jump to "They will never release results" is just a bit too far :)
Wishing you the best!
Best of luck to Patients, NWBO, and Longs!
Thanks pgsd!
The neuro-imaging session could be interesting (pseudo-progression) for the NWBO trial. If Reefrad (can't remember if that's the right handle) can check that part out, s/he would definitely bring some context there.
Cheers!
Best of luck to Patients, NWBO, and Longs!
Would you invest in this company:
* Unmet medical need
* Large addressable market
* Cancer Platform technology - L=Operable solid tumors ; Direct Inoperable solid tumors
* UCLA Neuro-oncologist team led by Dr. Liau, respected in her field
* Primary End Point: compare with historical control groups
* 2018 Journal article, 69 doctors: great data with regards to historical data<
* 4 countries, over 80 sites: North America, Europe
* Few SAE
* Great QoL
* Inspiring patient stories
* Trial with [5 years - 10 years] worth of data per patients
* Data on specific characteristics (MGMT - survival @ 3 year : 49.1%!, IDH?)
* Manufacturing readiness
* Patents
* Time line: Data Lock; independent statisticians
* PIM (partial)
TLD any day. If good: Revolution in Cancer Treatment.
I have.
Best of luck to Patients, NWBO, and Longs!
Charming place Anders
I'm adding it to my list of post-COVID places to visit :)
Cheers!
Forbes: Ultra-Cold Freezer Makers To Profit From Covid-19 Vaccine Rush
https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2020/11/21/ultra-cold-freezer-makers-to-profit-from-covid-19-vaccine-rush/
Cryoport: Potential Commercial Benefits from COVID-19 Vaccines (CYRX, Buy, $46.43)
SoS also sees it:
https://smithonstocks.com/cryoport-potential-commercial-benefits-from-covid-19-vaccines-cyrx-buy-46-43/
I'm keeping my shares for the medium term, that's for sure. Plus, it's house money at this stage. All good.
CYRX as a potential COVID Vaccine shipping system.
Along the lines I was thinking about:
Nearing the 52 weeks high. Other folks must have similar thoughts with the cold chain and Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine.
Best of luck with your investments!
Thanks Survivor
How about
"Is the Company unblinded/ did the independent statistician finish their work"
and
"Would you update the timeline for top line data announcement"
Cheers!
Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine will need to be stored (hence transported) at low temperatures.
"How to Ship a Vaccine at –80°C, and Other Obstacles in the Covid Fight"
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/18/business/coronavirus-covid-vaccine-cold-frozen-logistics.html
This may look like a great opportunity for CYRX, esp. after this year's acquisition in Europe, when Pfizer has European (German & Belgium) and US COVID-19 vaccine plants.
I have not read anything about the possible impact on CYRX, but it could be a possibility.
Best of luck with your investments!
Senti,
Is that what you meant and if so who was that? I tend to read your posts with great interests, except your political leaning ones that look like conspiracy theories.
What did you mean?
(By the way, I'm now going to imagine you look like Alien's Ripley :) (Sigourney Weaver).
Thanks!
Best of luck to Patients, NWBO, and Longs!