Outlook Therapeutics Inc (OTLK)

[H2R]

I'm starting small and will grow my position as I dig a bit.

From reading a couple articles, it seems to me that the PhIII trial is going after the of current 50% market share, the top contender, Roche's off-label Bevacizumab (Avastin) aiming for an FDA approved comparable product, at a lower price point, and likely better payer support (if FDA approved of course).

The downside is a strong and established competitive landscape against large companies (sales force/marketing/...).

There seems to be a strong upside on good TLD given the current MC at about $100. The $1 / share looks like it could definitely go some ways.

If we assume a peak sale of $250 million, then the net present value (11% discount rate) for the drug would be around $325 million, which is nearly three times the price of the market cap of the company at this point.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4370981-outlook-therapeutics-interpreting-new-phase-3-trial-results

That same article talks about a global market around $11B in 2026. $250M peak sale seems like a fairly conservative peak sale. Thermo (see post earlier) estimates peak at between $500M-1B. That would translate into a phenomenal MC, i.e a return > 10x.

Finally, the last raise seems to give them some pretty good runway. I have not looked at the burn rate tough. Anyways, a stock to watch for sure.

As usual with clinical stage biotechs, lots of happen before TLD. The Company talks about mid 2021 TLD, which, as we know, may be an optimistic target but gives a sense of the timeframe. Data lock was in

Best of luck and again, thanks to Thermo for the tip :) Really appreciated.