I wonder if you would indulge me. I'm trying to figure out the potential for OTLK.
Context
1) The projection a few years out of the AMD seems to be around $11B
https://www.globaldata.com/age-related-macular-degeneration-market-will-rocket-11-5bn-2026/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link
2) OTLK estimates a $13B market for FDA-approved anti-VEGFs for ophthalmic use
https://outlooktherapeutics.com/lytenava-overview/
3) There is currently no bevacizumab approved for ophthalmic indications in the United States
https://outlooktherapeutics.com/lytenava-clinical-progress/
4) OFF LABEL Avastin has a lion share of the market (at least US?)
“Based on GlobalData’s primary research, in the US around 50% of patients with wet AMD are prescribed Avastin
https://www.globaldata.com/nhs-victory-bayer-novartis-significant-impact-uk-ophthalmology-sales-says-globaldata/?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aarticle%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link
Rough Estimate
IF ONS-5010 is indeed approved for those markets, it seems that a $500M revenue would be a conservative peak sales estimate.
In the world of biotech, I see market cap from 5 to 10 times the revenue. 7 times would mean an MC of $3.5B, or over 7 times the current MC.
Your thoughts?
How does the above estimate jive with your own thoughts? Is that in the ball park of your own estimate?
Thanks for your thought!
Best of luck with your investments!
Recent OTLK News
- Outlook Therapeutics® to Report Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 on May 16, 2024 and Host Inaugural Quarterly Conference Call and Webcast • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/09/2024 12:45:00 PM
- Form EFFECT - Notice of Effectiveness • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/07/2024 04:15:34 AM
- Form 424B3 - Prospectus [Rule 424(b)(3)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/06/2024 08:09:46 PM
- Outlook Therapeutics® to Present at the Retina World Congress 2024 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/02/2024 01:05:00 PM
- Outlook Therapeutics® to Present at the Ophthalmology Innovation Summit (OIS) Retina Innovation Showcase • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/29/2024 01:00:00 PM
- Outlook Therapeutics® Announces Closing of Private Placement of $5.0 Million • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/15/2024 08:15:00 PM
- Outlook Therapeutics® Receives European Union Positive CHMP Opinion for ONS-5010 as a Treatment for Wet AMD • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/22/2024 11:35:35 AM
- Outlook Therapeutics® Announces Closing of Private Placement of up to $159 Million • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/18/2024 09:10:05 PM
- Outlook Therapeutics® Announces Effective Date for 1-for-20 Reverse Stock Split • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/12/2024 12:05:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/11/2024 08:43:10 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/08/2024 09:30:50 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/08/2024 09:18:39 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/08/2024 09:11:11 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/08/2024 09:08:43 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 03/07/2024 09:16:07 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 10:10:29 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/14/2024 09:40:14 PM
- Outlook Therapeutics® Reports Financial Results for First Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 and Provides Corporate Update • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 02/14/2024 01:05:00 PM
- Form DEF 14A - Other definitive proxy statements • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 02/08/2024 11:59:42 AM
- Form SC 13D/A - General statement of acquisition of beneficial ownership: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/31/2024 09:01:44 PM
- Outlook Therapeutics® Doses First Subject in NORSE EIGHT • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/31/2024 01:05:00 PM
- Form PRE 14A - Other preliminary proxy statements • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/29/2024 10:00:29 PM
- Form 10-K/A - Annual report [Section 13 and 15(d), not S-K Item 405]: [Amend] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/24/2024 10:00:36 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 01/24/2024 11:02:07 AM
Avant Technologies Equipping AI-Managed Data Center with High Performance Computing Systems • AVAI • May 10, 2024 8:00 AM
VAYK Discloses Strategic Conversation on Potential Acquisition of $4 Million Home Service Business • VAYK • May 9, 2024 9:00 AM
Bantec's Howco Awarded $4.19 Million Dollar U.S. Department of Defense Contract • BANT • May 8, 2024 10:00 AM
Element79 Gold Corp Successfully Closes Maverick Springs Option Agreement • ELEM • May 8, 2024 9:05 AM
Kona Gold Beverages, Inc. Achieves April Revenues Exceeding $586,000 • KGKG • May 8, 2024 8:30 AM
Epazz plans to spin off Galaxy Batteries Inc. • EPAZ • May 8, 2024 7:05 AM