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Scripts Update for Week Ending 02/06
Short Week
V
TRx: 20,962 {vs 22,348; -6.20%} Sector -3.47%
NRx: 7,808 {vs 8,842; -11.69%} Sector -9.14%
Ref: 13,154 {vs 13,506; -2.61%} Sector -0.01%
GenL
TRx: 52,169 {vs 53,506; -2.50%}
NRx: 18,292 {vs 19,945; -8.29%}
L --- Seriously WTF
TRx: 1,436 {vs 1,393; +3.09%}
NRx: 482 {vs 470; +2.55%}
V TRx Market Share: 28.11% vs 28.93%
V NRx Market Share: 29.37% vs 30.22%
V Ref Market Share: 27.41% vs 28.14%
Scripts Update for Week Ending 26/05
ATH in TRx & NRx Market Share
V
TRx: 22,348 {vs 22,127; +1.00%} Sector +0.49%
NRx: 8,842 {vs 8,856; -0.16%} Sector -1.63%
Ref: 13,506 {vs 13,271; +1.77%} Sector +1.82%
GenL
TRx: 53,506 {vs 53,441; +0.12%}
NRx: 19,945 {vs 20,449; -2.46%}
L
TRx: 1,393 {vs 1,306; +6.66%}
NRx: 470 {vs 437; +7.55%}
V TRx Market Share: 28.93% vs 28.78% -- ATH
V NRx Market Share: 30.22% vs 29.78% -- ATH
V Ref Market Share: 28.14% vs 28.16% -- (ATH = 28.16%)
H.C. Wainwright maintained Amarin Corporation (AMRN) coverage with Buy and target $10
Issuance Date: 2017-06-01
Sorry don't have access to the whole report
Scripts Update for Week Ending 19/05
ATH in TRx & Refills Market Share
V
TRx: 22,127 {vs 21,851; +1.26%} Sector +0.15% (3rd ATH)
NRx: 8,856 {vs 8,860; -0.05%} Sector +0.20% (6th ATH)
Ref: 13,271 {vs 12,991; +2.16%} Sector +0.12% (2nd ATH)
GenL
TRx: 53,441 {vs 53,520; -0.15%}
NRx: 20,449 {vs 20,346; +0.51%}
L
TRx: 1,306 {vs 1,385; -5.70%}
NRx: 437 {vs 476; -8.19%}
V TRx Market Share: 28.78% vs 28.47% -- ATH
V NRx Market Share: 29.78% vs 29.85% -- (ATH = 29.87%)
V Ref Market Share: 28.16% vs 27.60% -- ATH
Scripts Update for Week Ending 12/05
ATH in TRx Market Share
V
TRx: 21,851 {vs 22,736; -3.89%} Sector -4.16%
NRx: 8,860 {vs 8,980; -1.34%} Sector -2.75%
Ref: 12,991 {vs 13,756; -5.56%} Sector -5.02%
GenL
TRx: 53,520 {vs 55,868; -4.20%}
NRx: 20,346 {vs 21,031; -3.26%}
L
TRx: 1,385 {vs 1,480; -6.42%}
NRx: 476 {vs 509; -6.48%}
V TRx Market Share: 28.47% vs 28.39% -- ATH
V NRx Market Share: 29.85% vs 29.42% -- (ATH = 29.87%)
V Ref Market Share: 27.60% vs 27.75% -- (ATH = 27.75%)
Total Monthly Retail ONLY Data April-2017
ATH Across the Board in Market Share
V
TRx: 89,657 {vs 94,720; -5.35%} – Sector -8.24%
NRx: 36,048 {vs 39,967; -9.81%} – Sector -11.22%
Ref: 53,609 {vs 54,753; -2.09%} – Sector -6.29%
Gen L
TRx: 225,000 {vs 247,920; -9.24%}
NRx: 84,373 {vs 95,701; -11.84%}
L
TRx: 6,072 {vs 6,877; -11.71%}
NRx: 2,097 {vs 2,340; -10.38%}
Monthly Retail TRx Market Share: 27.95% vs 27.10% --- ATH
Monthly Retail NRx Market Share: 29.42% vs 28.96% --- ATH
Monthly Retail Refills Market Share: 27.05% vs 25.89% --- ATH
New Purchase (any thoughts pyrr?)
Blackrock Inc AMRN: New purchase: 3,639,327 Shares
Yep that goes along with pyrr theory of a dooms day. Mr. Pyrr is more knowledgeable than all these funds with multi billion $ of AUMs (Asset Under Management, if ur wondering what it is pyrr). They definitely don't see any Prospect in AMRN and most definitely their analysis showed that AMRN reached the max in terms of scripts.....thats why they are initiating new purchases or increasing their allocation
Long and Strong. I will invite u to Vegas pyrr, my treat 1st class trip, chips to play with and room service high class top notch company to release ur stress and anger after reduce it :):)
Scripts Update for Week Ending 05/05
ATH in TRx & Refills Numbers and Market Share
V
TRx: 22,736 {vs 21,609; +5.22%} Sector +3.48% -- ATH
NRx: 8,980 {vs 8,602; +4.39%} Sector +2.97% -- (ATH = 9,220)
Ref: 13,756 {vs 13,007; +5.76%} Sector +3.79% -- ATH
GenL
TRx: 55,868 {vs 54,318; +2.85%}
NRx: 21,031 {vs 20,534; +2.42%}
L
TRx: 1,480 {vs 1,465; +1.02%}
NRx: 509 {vs 503; +1.19%}
V TRx Market Share: 28.39% vs 27.92% -- ATH
V NRx Market Share: 29.42% vs 29.02% -- (ATH = 29.87%)
V Ref Market Share: 27.75% vs 27.24% -- ATH
Scripts Update for Week Ending 28/04
ATH in Refills
V
TRx: 21,609 {vs 21,338; +1.27%} Sector +2.72%
NRx: 8,602 {vs 8,593; +0.10%} Sector +3.02%
Ref: 13,007 {vs 12,745; +2.06%} Sector +2.53%
GenL
TRx: 54,318 {vs 52,585; +3.30%}
NRx: 20,534 {vs 19,694; +4.27%}
L
TRx: 1,465 {vs 1,420; +3.17%}
NRx: 503 {vs 483; +4.14%}
V TRx Market Share: 27.92% vs 28.32%
V NRx Market Share: 29.02% vs 29.87%
V Ref Market Share: 27.24% vs 27.37%
why do i have a feeling citi analyst is trying to trick the guys in his question "what type of marketing msg you are using?" :):)
Aron Berg replied in a very proper way
Amarin Reports First Quarter 2017 Financial Results and Provides Update on Operations
* Prescription Growth Up > 50%; Outcomes Study Beyond 80% Complete
* Re-affirms Guidance on Full Year Net Product Revenues of between $155 and $165 Million
* Management to Host Conference Call at 8:00 a.m. ET Today
BEDMINSTER, N.J. and DUBLIN, Ireland, May 03, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Amarin Corporation plc (NASDAQ:AMRN), a biopharmaceutical company focused on the commercialization and development of therapeutics to improve cardiovascular health, today announced financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2017, and provided an update on company operations.
Key Amarin achievements through March 31, 2017 include:
• U.S. revenue growth: Recognized $34.3 million in net product revenue from Vascepa® (icosapent ethyl) sales in Q1 2017 compared to $25.3 million in Q1 2016, an increase of 36%.
• U.S. prescription growth: Increased normalized prescriptions for Vascepa by 52% and 58% compared to Q1 2016 based on data from Symphony Health Solutions and IMS Health, respectively.
• International development: China regulatory authorities approved the Vascepa clinical trial application (CTA) from Amarin's partner, Eddingpharm, paving the way for Eddingpharm to commence a clinical trial of Vascepa in China before the end of 2017.
• R&D progress: Our REDUCE-IT cardiovascular outcomes study, designed to provide data to support a significantly expanded market opportunity for Vascepa, is progressing as planned. Our statistical models indicate that in March 2017, the study reached the onset of approximately 80% of the target aggregate number of primary cardiovascular events. The onset of the target final primary cardiovascular event will likely be reached near the end of 2017 in this 8,175 patient study that commenced in 2011.
• Cash flow: Net cash outflow from operations during Q1 2017 was less than $1.5 million, excluding costs for R&D, interest and royalty. The company aims to be net cash flow positive on this basis for the full year with continued quarterly variability.
• Cash balance: As of March 31, 2017, Amarin had a cash balance of $96.1 million compared to $98.3 million at December 31, 2016. The March 31st cash balance includes approximately $13.7 million in net cash proceeds from the January 2017 redemption of debt and simultaneous issuance of $30.0 million face value of new debt long-term.
"Historically, Q1 has been our most challenging quarter for revenue growth due to seasonal factors. We are pleased that both revenues and prescriptions for Vascepa grew significantly in Q1, as prescription growth exceeded our internal projections. We are on-track to achieve our full year 2017 product revenue guidance of $155 to $165 million," stated John F. Thero, president and chief executive officer. "Our expectations are that REDUCE-IT study results will be reported in mid-2018, and we are actively planning for expanded promotion based on anticipated positive results from this study. There is a large unmet medical need that we are seeking to address through demonstration of positive results in REDUCE-IT. We believe the efficacy, safety, oral administration and affordable cost of Vascepa position the product for substantial growth, assuming that REDUCE-IT results are positive."
Increases in New and Recurring Prescriptions Drive Steady Commercial Growth
During the first quarter, Amarin again experienced substantial prescription growth and continued increase in Vascepa market share, particularly among detailed physicians. Overall, approximately 150,000 patients received prescriptions for Vascepa during the quarter, with new prescriptions growing to approximately 5% of the non-statin lipid modifying market and approaching 30% of the prescription omega-3 market. Strong Vascepa growth is driven by positive physician experience in conjunction with our focused message delivery, compelling efficacy and safety data, and improved managed care coverage.
Estimated normalized total Vascepa prescriptions, based on data from Symphony Health Solutions and IMS Health, totaled approximately 305,000 and 335,000, respectively, for the three months ended March 31, 2017. These prescription levels represent growth of approximately 52% and 58%, respectively, from prior year levels.
During the first quarter of 2017, overall wholesaler inventory levels decreased from year-end 2016 levels calculated based on estimated days of Vascepa sales on hand. Consequently, we estimate that this decrease in wholesaler inventory levels adversely impacted net product revenue by approximately $2.8 million to $3.1 million for the first quarter of 2017. During the first quarter of 2016, wholesaler inventory levels adversely impacted net product revenue by approximately $1.2 million to $1.5 million. We believe that changes in channel inventory at these independent wholesalers and retail pharmacies are common and impacted by numerous factors, including holiday timing and recent order trends. We also deduce, based on information available to us, that channel inventory levels at the end of the first quarters of 2017 and 2016 are within ordinary ranges, and that such levels will continue to vary from quarter to quarter.
REDUCE-IT Cardiovascular Outcomes Study
The REDUCE-IT cardiovascular outcomes trial continues to progress on schedule. Amarin anticipates the onset of the final primary cardiovascular event to occur near the end of 2017, with report of top-line results and publications in 2018. The projected timing of available data from which we can report top-line results should be easier to estimate after the interim look which, as discussed below, is scheduled to complete in Q3 2017. We currently estimate that we will report results of REDUCE-IT in mid-2018, assuming the study goes to completion. These estimates reflect our assumptions of the necessary time needed to collect vital data from all patients in the study, compile the results, and subject the results to scrutiny of the independent review committees and the REDUCE-IT operational team.
The 8,175-patient outcomes study is evaluating whether treatment with Vascepa reduces cardiovascular events in patients who despite stabilized statin therapy, have elevated triglyceride levels and other cardiovascular risk factors. The results of this important trial, if successful, could lead to improved medical care for tens of millions of patients. Amarin is positioned to be the first company to complete an outcomes study in the population of patients being studied in REDUCE-IT.
The primary endpoint of this global, double-blind study is the time to the first occurrence of a composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Results will be compared between the Vascepa and placebo groups. The study is being conducted under a Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) agreement with the FDA.
Preparations are underway for a second pre-specified interim efficacy and safety analysis of REDUCE-IT by the independent DMC, since we believe that approximately 80% of the primary cardiovascular events occurred in the mid-March timeframe. The ensuing analysis should be completed before the end of Q3 2017. Consistent with the trial design, Amarin continues to believe that the REDUCE-IT study is most likely to continue to completion of 100% of the target events. We surmise this because the efficacy requirements detailed to the DMC for early study stoppage after the 80% interim assessment are high. Unlike the data analysis at the end of the study, the interim analysis and review by the DMC also includes robustness thresholds for certain secondary endpoints. There are potential statistical advantages for the study to run to its full term.
Amarin will remain blinded to results of the REDUCE-IT study until after the study is stopped and the database is locked at either the 80% interim analysis or at the final analysis.
International Development of Vascepa
Our international initiatives are progressing positively. Our partner for China, Eddingpharm, submitted the clinical trial application (CTA) to the Chinese regulatory authorities in 2016. This CTA was recently approved, enables Eddingpharm to progress into the clinical testing phase, and potentially positions Vascepa to be the first prescription grade EPA product to receive drug approval in China. We believe the commercial opportunity in China is large based on the prevalence of hypertriglyceridemia, which is estimated to affect 11.9% of the adult Chinese population. Our partner in China is responsible for the conduct and cost of the clinical studies in China. Amarin will provide the clinical trial material for this study.
Financial Update
Net product revenue for the three months ended March 31, 2017 and 2016 was $34.3 million and $25.3 million, respectively. This increase in net product revenue was primarily attributable to increases both in new and recurring prescriptions of Vascepa driven by increased sales productivity and supported by expanded managed care coverage.
In addition, Amarin recognized licensing revenue of $0.3 million and $0.2 million in the three months ended March 31, 2017 and 2016, respectively, related to agreements for the commercialization of Vascepa outside the United States. Based upon current estimates, Amarin anticipates approximately $1.2 million in licensing revenue to be recognized in aggregate during 2017 from existing agreements.
Cost of goods sold for the three months ended March 31, 2017 and 2016 was $8.2 million and $6.9 million, respectively. Gross margin on product sales improved to 76% in the quarter ended March 31, 2017 compared to 73% in the quarter ended March 31, 2016. The improvement in gross margin on product sales was primarily driven by lower active pharmaceutical ingredient cost.
Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses in the three months ended March 31, 2017 and 2016 were $34.2 million and $28.0 million, respectively. The increase in SG&A expenses primarily reflects a $1.7 million increase in co-promotion fees accrued under our contract with Kowa Pharmaceuticals America, Inc., increased promotional activities, and increased legal costs. The co-promotion fee is calculated based on gross margin on Vascepa product sales. The increase in co-promotion fees primarily reflects an increase during Q1 2017 compared to Q1 2016 in gross margin on product sales.
Research and development expenses in the three months ended March 31, 2017 and 2016 were $10.8 million and $13.7 million, respectively. This decrease in expense was primarily driven by the timing of REDUCE-IT expenses.
Under GAAP, Amarin reported a net loss of $20.9 million in the first quarter of 2017, or basic and diluted loss per share of $0.08. This net loss included $3.4 million in non-cash stock-based compensation expense. Amarin reported a net loss of $29.8 million in the first quarter of 2016, or basic and diluted loss per share of $0.16. This net loss included $3.6 million in non-cash stock-based compensation expense, a $1.3 million non-cash loss on the change in fair value of derivatives.
Amarin reported cash and cash equivalents of $96.1 million at March 31, 2017. Excluding cash flow related to research and development and financing, net cash outflows in the quarter ended March 31, 2017 were approximately $1.4 million. Cash outflows relating to research and development in Q1 2017 were approximately $10.4 million. Cash flow from financing-type activities included approximately $13.7 million in net cash proceeds from the previously announced January 2017 redemption of debt and simultaneous issuance of $30.0 million face value of new debt long-term. Cash paid for interest and royalties in Q1 2017 was approximately $4.1 million in aggregate.
As of March 31, 2017, the company had $29.5 million in net accounts receivable ($34.5 million in gross accounts receivable before allowances and reserves) and $23.9 million in inventory.
As of March 31, 2017, Amarin had approximately 270.7 million American Depository Shares (ADSs) and ordinary shares outstanding, 32.8 million common share equivalents of Series A Convertible Preferred Shares outstanding and approximately 23.5 million equivalent shares underlying stock options at a weighted-average exercise price of $3.25, as well as 9.8 million equivalent shares underlying restricted or deferred stock units.
Scripts Update for Week Ending 21/04
ATH Across the Board in terms of Market Share
V
TRx: 21,338 {vs 20,757; +2.80%} Sector -0.12%
NRx: 8,593 {vs 8,418; +2.08%} Sector -1.26%
Ref: 12,745 {vs 12,339; +3.29%} Sector +0.60%
GenL
TRx: 52,585 {vs 53,282; -1.31%}
NRx: 19,694 {vs 20,224; -2.62%}
L
TRx: 1,420 {vs 1,393; +1.94%}
NRx: 483 {vs 495; -2.42%}
V TRx Market Share: 28.32% vs 27.52% -- ATH
V NRx Market Share: 29.87% vs 28.89% -- ATH
V Ref Market Share: 27.37% vs 26.65% -- ATH
Scripts Update for Week Ending 14/04
Short Week – Good Friday
V
TRx: 20,757 {vs 22,141; -6.25%} Sector -5.08%
NRx: 8,418 {vs 9,152; -8.02%} Sector -5.21%
Ref: 12,339 {vs 12,989; -5.00%} Sector -5.00%
GenL
TRx: 53,282 {vs 55,784; -4.49%}
NRx: 20,224 {vs 21,054; -3.94%}
L
TRx: 1,393 {vs 1,545; -9.84%}
NRx: 495 {vs 531; -6.78%}
V TRx Market Share: 27.52% vs 27.86%
V NRx Market Share: 28.89% vs 29.78%
V Ref Market Share: 26.65% vs 26.65% -- ATH
Q1-2017 vs. Q1-2016 (Retail + Institutional Data)
V
TRx: 268,440 {vs 187,231; +43.37%} – Sector -3.59% --- ATH
NRx: 107,921 {vs 72,520; +48.82%} – Sector -0.42% --- ATH
Gen L
TRx: 778,660 {vs 862,586; -9.73%}
NRx: 272,515 {vs 303,700; -10.27%}
L
TRx: 24,453 {vs 61,632; -60.32%}
NRx: 7,325 {vs 13,183; -44.44%}
V Q1-2017 Retail + Institutional TRx Market Share: 25.05% vs 16.85% in Q1-2016 -- ATH
V Q1-2017 Retail + Institutional NRx Market Share: 27.83% vs 18.62% in Q1-2016 – ATH
Q1-2017 vs. Q4-2016 (Retail + Institutional Data)
V
TRx: 268,440 {vs 256,371; +4.71%} – Sector -4.95% --- ATH
NRx: 107,921 {vs 94,626; +14.05%} – Sector -0.09% --- ATH
Gen L
TRx: 778,660 {vs 839,790; -7.28%}
NRx: 272,515 {vs 283,669; -3.93%}
L
TRx: 24,453 {vs 31,147; -21.49%}
NRx: 7,325 {vs 9,802; -25.27%}
V Q1-2017 Retail + Institutional TRx Market Share: 25.05% vs 22.74% in Q4-2016 -- ATH
V Q1-2017 Retail + Institutional NRx Market Share: 27.83% vs 24.38% in Q4-2016 – ATH
Total Monthly Retail + Institutional Data March-2017
V
TRx: 98,977 {vs 83,367; +18.72%} -- Sector +15.28% --- ATH
(Inst # 4,257 vs 3,351; +27.04% -- Inst. Sector +28.39%)
NRx: 39,967 {vs 34,222; +16.79%} – Sector +13.83% -- ATH
Ref: 59,010 {vs 49,145; +20.07%} – Sector +16.12% -- ATH
Gen L
TRx: 272,735 {vs 238,640; +14.29%}
(Inst # 24,815 vs 19,170; +29.45%)
NRx: 95,701 {vs 84,749; +12.92%}
L
TRx: 7,968 {vs 7,358; +8.29%}
(Inst # 1,091 vs 972; +12.24%)
NRx: 2,340 {vs 2,268; +3.17%}
V Monthly Retail + Inst. TRx Market Share: 26.07% vs 25.31% --- ATH
V Monthly Retail + Inst. NRx Market Share: 28.96% vs 28.23% --- ATH
V Monthly Retail + Inst. Ref Market Share: 24.42% vs 23.61% --- ATH
Q1-2017 vs. Q1-2016 (Retail ONLY Data)
V
TRx: 257,422 {vs 175,210; +46.92%} – Sector -0.88% --- ATH
NRx: 107,921 {vs 72,520; +48.82%} – Sector -0.42% --- ATH
Gen L
TRx: 713,250 {vs 786,496; -9.31%}
NRx: 272,515 {vs 303,700; -10.27%}
L
TRx: 21,057 {vs 38,780; -45.70%}
NRx: 7,325 {vs 13,183; -44.44%}
V Q1-2017 Retail ONLY TRx Market Share: 25.96% vs 17.51% in Q1-2016 -- ATH
V Q1-2017 Retail ONLY NRx Market Share: 27.83% vs 18.62% in Q1-2016 -- ATH
Q1-2017 vs. Q4-2016 (Retail ONLY Data)
V
TRx: 257,422 {vs 246,127; +4.59%} – Sector -5.83% --- ATH
NRx: 107,921 {vs 94,626; +14.05%} – Sector -0.09% --- ATH
Gen L
TRx: 713,250 {vs 779,970; -8.55%}
NRx: 272,515 {vs 283,669; -3.93%}
L
TRx: 21,057 {vs 27,020; -22.07%}
NRx: 7,325 {vs 9,802; -25.27%}
V Q1-2017 Retail ONLY TRx Market Share: 25.96% vs 23.37% in Q4-2016 –- ATH
V Q1-2017 Retail ONLY NRx Market Share: 27.83% vs 24.38% in Q4-2016 -- ATH
Total Monthly Retail ONLY Data March-2017
ATH Across the Board Numbers & Market Share
V
TRx: 94,720 {vs 80,016; +18.38%} – Sector +6.12% -- ATH
NRx: 39,967 {vs 34,222; +16.79%} – Sector +13.83% -- ATH
Ref: 54,753 {vs 45,794; +19.56%} – Sector +14.56% -- ATH
Gen L
TRx: 247,920 {vs 219,470; +12.96%}
NRx: 95,701 {vs 84,749; +12.92%}
L
TRx: 6,877 {vs 6,386; +6.12%}
NRx: 2,340 {vs 2,268; +3.17%}
Monthly Retail TRx Market Share: 27.10% vs 26.16% --- ATH
Monthly Retail NRx Market Share: 28.96% vs 28.23% --- ATH
Monthly Retail Refills Market Share: 25.89% vs 24.80% --- ATH
Scripts Update for Week Ending 07/04
ATH in Market Share
2/3 ATH (TRx & Refills)
V
TRx: 22,141 {vs 20,827; +6.31%} Sector +2.94% -- ATH
NRx: 9,152 {vs 8,696; +5.24%} Sector +2.61% -- (ATH=9,220)
Ref: 12,989 {vs 12,131; +7.07%} Sector +3.14% -- ATH
GenL
TRx: 55,784 {vs 54,790; +1.81%}
NRx: 21,054 {vs 20,699; +1.72%}
L
TRx: 1,545 {vs 1,587; -2.65%}
NRx: 531 {vs 559; -5.01%}
V TRx Market Share: 27.86% vs 26.98% -- ATH
V NRx Market Share:29.78% vs 29.03% -- ATH
V Ref Market Share: 26.65% vs 25.67% -- ATH
Scripts Update for Week Ending 31/03
V
TRx: 20,827 {vs 20,954; -0.61%} Sector +0.45%
NRx: 8,696 {vs 8,647; +0.57%} Sector -0.86%
Ref: 12,131 {vs 12,307; -1.43%} Sector +1.30%
GenL
TRx: 54,790 {vs 54,438; +0.65%}
NRx: 20,699 {vs 21,086; -1.84%}
L
TRx: 1,587 {vs 1,465; +8.33%}
NRx: 559 {vs 481; +16.22%}
V TRx Market Share: 26.98% vs 27.26%
V NRx Market Share: 29.03% vs 28.62%
V Ref Market Share: 25.67% vs 26.39%
Scripts Update for Week Ending 24/03
V
TRx: 20,954 {vs 20,710; +1.18%} Sector +0.73%
NRx: 8,647 {vs 8,635; +0.14%} Sector +2.25%
Ref: 12,307 {vs 12,075; +1.92%} Sector -0.24%
GenL
TRx: 54,438 {vs 54,105; +0.62%}
NRx: 21,086 {vs 20,428; +3.22%}
L
TRx: 1,465 {vs 1,488; -1.55%}
NRx: 481 {vs 486; -1.03%}
V TRx Market Share: 27.26% vs 27.14% -- ATH
V NRx Market Share: 28.62% vs 29.22%
V Ref Market Share: 26.39% vs 25.83% -- ATH
Scripts Update for Week Ending 17/03
ATH TRx & NRx Market Share
V
TRx: 20,710 {vs 21,464; -3.51%} Sector -3.82%
NRx: 8,635 {vs 9,220; -6.34%} Sector -7.58%
Ref: 12,075 {vs 12,244; -1.38%} Sector -1.28%
GenL
TRx: 54,105 {vs 56,284; -3.87%}
NRx: 20,428 {vs 22,208; -8.02%}
L
TRx: 1,488 {vs 1,583; -6.00%}
NRx: 486 {vs 545; -10.83%}
V TRx Market Share: 27.14% vs 27.06% -- ATH
V NRx Market Share: 29.22% vs 28.84% -- ATH
V Ref Market Share: 25.83% vs 25.85% -- {ATH=25.85%}
Raf, yeah scripts are fine. Just the new coverage and price targets
Sorry all, lost my access to all equity coverage...won't be able to update for the time being
Total Monthly Retail + Institutional Data February-2017
ATH Across the Board in terms of Market Share
V
TRx: 83,367 {vs 86,096; -3.17%} -- Sector -9.14%
(Inst # 3,351 vs 3,410; -1.73% -- Inst. Sector -10.22%)
Gen L
TRx: 238,640 {vs 267,285; -10.72%}
(Inst # 19,170 vs 21,425; -10.53%)
L
TRx: 7,358 {vs 9,127; -19.37%}
(Inst # 972 vs 1,333; -27.08%)
V Monthly Retail + Inst. TRx Market Share: 25.31% vs 23.75% --- ATH
V Monthly Retail + Inst. NRx Market Share: 28.23% vs 26.25% --- ATH
V Monthly Retail + Inst. Ref Market Share: 23.61% vs 22.38% --- ATH
Scripts Update for Week Ending 10/03
ATH yet again in NRx
ATH Across the Board in Terms of Market Share
V
TRx: 21,464 {vs 21,649; -0.85%} Sector -1.88%
NRx: 9,220 {vs 9,045; +1.93%} Sector +1.38% -- ATH
Ref: 12,244 {vs 12,604; -2.86%} Sector -3.96%
GenL
TRx: 56,284 {vs 57,574; -2.24%}
NRx: 22,208 {vs21,929; +1.27%}
L
TRx: 1,583 {vs 1,624; -2.52%}
NRx: 545 {vs 563; -3.20%}
V TRx Market Share: 27.06% vs 26.78% -- ATH
V NRx Market Share: 28.84% vs 28.68% -- ATH
V Ref Market Share: 25.85% vs 25.56% -- ATH
Coverage Update
Quick take by Cantor
REDUCE-IT Hits 80% of Cardiovascular Events, Continues to Track for Mid-2018 Data
Takeaways
¦ AMRN announced this morning that the REDUCE-IT outcomes study has
reached 80% of the required CV events.
¦ This milestone now triggers the pre-specified safety and efficacy analysis by the independent Data Monitoring Committee, with data expected in 3Q17.
¦ We reiterate our belief that due to a high statistical bar, REDUCE-IT will not be stopped early and continue to the full 1,612 required events.
¦ The study continues to track to have the final CV event near the end of 2017 with final results expected in mid-2018.
Summary
This morning AMRN announced the onset of 80% of the targeted aggregate number of primary major adverse cardiovascular events in the REDUCE-IT outcomes study. This event now triggers the pre-specified safety and efficacy interim analysis of the DMC. Data from this analysis is expected in 3Q17. Though the company continues to reiterate, as we do, the belief that REDUCE-IT will continue to the full 1,612 target events, we note that following the 60% target
event analysis in Sept. 2016, the stock experienced some weakness as we believe some investors look for the early stop. REDUCE-IT continues to track to have the final event near the end of 2017 with data being announced in mid-2018. AMRN also continues to educate cardiologists on the REDUCE-IT trial, having recently published an article in Clinical Cardiology on the rationale and design of the study.
Investment Thesis
We rate AMRN Overweight. Amarin currently markets Vascepa, a purified type of omega-3 for decreasing high triglyceride levels. We believe, however, that a potential positive read-out from the REDUCE-IT outcomes study expected in mid-2018 could not just expand the indicated patient population of ~4M to ~75M, but also for the first time have an outcomes study that draws a straight line between triglyceride levels and cardiovascular risk, possibly changing how cardiovascular risk is managed and treated, potentially creating a multi-billion dollar market opportunity.
Valuation Summary
Our $6 price target is based on a 2030 tax-adjusted, probability adjusted DCF with a conservative assumption of 55% probability of success for the REDUCE-IT trial.
Valuation
Our $6 12-month price target is based on a 2030 tax-adjusted, probability-adjusted DCF with a conservative assumption of 55% probability of success for the REDUCE-IT trial.
Risks
Amarin Corporation is a commercial stage company though still involved in the clinical pathway to expand the label for their currently approved product. As such, Amarin is subject to certain risks.
Clinical Risk: Amarin is exposed to clinical development risks. As Amarin is engaged in a first of its kind outcomes trial, these risks are inherent. Vascepa could fail to show efficacy or develop significant safety issues during the clinical trial process. Additionally, the distinction as to what is a clinically meaningful reduction is interpretable.
Regulatory Risk: Actual clinical results and the FDA’s conclusions may deviate from expectations. Many of our model assumptions are based on incomplete clinical data. Ultimately, it is the regulatory bodies of the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medicines Agency (EMA) that determine the approval process of the Axsome clinical findings.
Competition: There are a number of companies developing or marketing therapies for the treatment and management of triglycerides. In fact there are at least two approved, but not yet marketed products that we believe could take advantage and launch in the light of a positive outcomes read out. These companies may have more marketing resources than Amarin, which would create significant competition in the marketplace.
Patent Risk: Amarin has several rights and patents for its technology and compounds. There can be no assurances that such patents will not be subject to challenges.
Total Monthly Retail ONLY Data February-2017
ATH in Retail Monthly NRx
ATH Across the Board in terms of Market Share
V
TRx: 80,016 {vs 82,686; -3.23%} – Sector -9.06%
NRx: 34,222 {vs 33,732; +1.45%} – Sector -5.66% -- ATH
Ref: 45,794 {vs 48,954; -6.46%} – Sector -11.16%
Gen L
TRx: 219,470 {vs 245,860; -10.73%}
NRx: 84,749 {vs 92,065; -7.95%}
L
TRx: 6,386 {vs 7,794; -18.07%}
NRx: 2,268 {vs 2,717; -16.53%}
Monthly Retail TRx Market Share: 26.16% vs 24.58% --- ATH
Monthly Retail NRx Market Share: 28.23% vs 26.25% --- ATH
Monthly Retail Refills Market Share: 24.80% vs 23.56% --- ATH
Scripts Update for Week Ending 03/03
ATH in TRx & NRx & Refills
ATH Across the Board in Terms of Market Share
V
TRx: 21,649 {vs 19,862; +9.00%} Sector +6.93% -- ATH
NRx: 9,045 {vs 8,585; +5.36%} Sector +5.29% -- ATH
Ref: 12,604 {vs 11,277; +11.77%} Sector +8.00% -- ATH
GenL
TRx: 57,574 {vs 54,243; +6.14%}
NRx: 21,929 {vs 20,854; +5.15%}
L
TRx: 1,624 {vs 1,505; +7.91%}
NRx: 563 {vs 513; +9.75%}
V TRx Market Share: 26.78% vs 26.27% -- ATH
V NRx Market Share: 28.68% vs 28.66% -- ATH
V Ref Market Share: 25.56% vs 24.70% -- ATH
Herbie i agree with you, but still good to have an even super conservative valuation with failed reduce-it and a PT of 3$, imagine the potential upside and crazy valuation that will be thrown and updated regularly after positive reduce-it results
New Coverage
By Cantor,
Overweight and $6 PT
Also they did bear case scenario in which reduce-it will not succeed and in this scenario the PT is $3
Link: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B57g27wC5ShhcmZ6UlpLcmhrdDA
Scripts Update for Week Ending 24/02
V
TRx: 19,862 {vs 20,240; -1.87%} Sector -1.40%
NRx: 8,585 {vs 8,713; -1.47%} Sector -1.76%
Ref: 11,277 {vs 11,527; -2.17%} Sector -1.17%
GenL
TRx: 54,243 {vs 54,873; -1.15%}
NRx: 20,854 {vs 21,190; -1.59%}
L
TRx: 1,505 {vs 1,574; -4.38%}
NRx: 513 {vs 586; -12.46%}
V TRx Market Share: 26.27% vs 26.39%
V NRx Market Share: 28.66% vs 28 58% -- ATH
V Ref Market Share: 24.70% vs 24.95%
HCW Update, Buy & PT $10
Management continues to deliver beyond guidance, as we look forward to a cash flow positive 2017 and REDUCE-IT readout in 2018. Yesterday, Amarin reported quarterly Vascepa sales revenue of $38.4M, an 18% increase from last quarter, marking another period of steady growth for the underlying indication of patients with very high triglyceride (>500 mg/dL). As we have repeatedly pointed to in the past, any indication of continued new patient starts for this already approved indication should act as a cushion that de-risks the pivotal REDUCEIT topline in 2018 (company guides now for publication in mid-2018). From yesterday’s earnings call, we highlight two important points:
(1) management delivered on 2016 annual revenue guidance ($130M
actual v. prior guidance of slightly exceeding $115-125M), thereby
showing not only internal visibility into revenue sales per quarter, as well as, importantly, accurate communications to the Street on expectations (we expect 2017 guidance will behave similarly);
(2) more visibility on REDUCE-IT topline: estimated to be publicly available in mid-2018. As the REDUCE-IT readout window narrows, and with strengthening core sales in the background, we expect many investors to begin to reengage with the story especially ahead of an expected cash flow positive year.
We reiterate our Buy rating and a $10 price target.
Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B57g27wC5ShheG8waDc4MTVfbUk/view?usp=sharing
Coverage after earnings
New increased PT $5 by Jefferies
(Despite applying a significant ~75% risk-discount to their mixed dyslipidemia estimates and only modeling U.S. revenues)
Suntrust still set at $6
Key Takeaway -- Jefferies
Vascepa sales continued to grow steadily in Q4, as preannounced in early Jan. AMRN reiterated its 2017 Vascepa rev guidance of $155-165M, higher than we were forecasting (JEF est: $143M). The second interim analysis for REDUCE-IT is expected b/f end-Q3, and we continue to believe it can be successful on final analysis in mid-'18. We have increased our '17 Vascepa revs and pushed our DCF forward, increasing our PT to $5 (v. $4.50 previously).
We estimate total peak potential Vascepa unadjusted sales of ~$2.8 billion by 2030 comprising of $397 million in sales from severe hypertriglyceridemia (TG >500 mg/dL) and $2.4 billion from mixed dyslipidemia (TG 200-500 mg/dL). However, given that the mixed dyslipidemia market potential is highly dependent on the outcome of REDUCE-IT, we apply a significant ~75% risk-discount to our mixed dyslipidemia estimates, translating to sales of $611 million by 2030 that flows through our DCF. At this time, we only model U.S. revenues for Vascepa and do not include ex-U.S. sales estimates, including China, which represents upside.
Link Jefferies: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B57g27wC5ShhQm4xNFBSM0ttOUU/view?usp=sharing
Link Suntrust: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B57g27wC5ShhVFBYWFhoZm5hanM/view?usp=sharing
BB / Raf
I guess Suntrust got it wrong. I listened to the CC and it was mentioned end of 2017. Must be a typo mistake in Suntrust Initial Thoughts Report
SunTrust Initial Thoughts
4Q16 Initial Thoughts: Sales Beat,
REDUCE-IT is the Next Catalyst ’17 Sales Range Maintained; REDUCE-IT interim look expected in 3Q17
4Q16 sales beat (+10% variance) but LPS misses Street
AMRN reported 4Q16 net revenues of $38.7M, above the Street/our (+$3.6M/
+$3.4M) on Vascepa sales at $38.4M (+$3.4M/+$3.4M). However, LPS of
($0.10) missed the Street ($0.07) and our estimate ($0.06) on higher tax (-$0.05 LPS impact compared to our estimate). For 4Q16, AMRN financial results are based on GAAP reported results. 4Q16 represents the 12th consecutive quarter with ≥50% YoY growth in adjusted Vascepa TRx’s as the product benefits from the ANCHOR and JELIS promotional efforts. Robust Vascepa TRx growth coupled with a +9% price increase taken on Dec. 16th, 2016 supports our ‘17E net product sales estimate of $172M, which is above the top-end of AMRN’s unchanged $155M-$165M range and +$13M above the Street’s $158M estimate. Vascepa represents ~20% of the prescription Omega-3 market. The next catalyst for AMRN is the read-out of the REDUCEIT cardiovascular (CV) outcomes trial. AMRN expects the DMC to recommend that REDUCE-IT continues until attainment of 100% of the target 1,612 primary events, which is estimated to occur by 1Q18, yielding publication of results in mid-2018. The REDUCE-IT trial design is modeled after nine previous outcomes trials for statins. We believe that Amarin will showcase the REDUCEIT trial design in a peer-reviewed scientific journal [possibly the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM)] in the near-term (likely in 1H17) before the 80% interim analysis expected in 3Q17.
> 26,000
$130.1 Million and $38.7 Million Total Revenue for Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2016
AMARIN REPORTS RECORD FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR 2016 FINANCIAL RESULTS AND PROVIDES UPDATE ON OPERATIONS
$130.1 Million and $38.7 Million Total Revenue for Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2016 Reflect Increases of 59% and 45% Compared to Corresponding Periods in 2015
REDUCE-IT Cardiovascular Outcomes Study Remains on Schedule to Reach Onset of Final Target Event Near the End of 2017
http://investor.amarincorp.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1014797
Suntrust Q4 preview
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B57g27wC5ShhS2N0bGdWQW5FbWc
Scripts Update for Week Ending 17/02
ATH in TRx & NRx
ATH Across the Board in Terms of Market Share
V
TRx: 20,240 {vs 19,602; +3.25%} Sector +0.83% -- ATH
NRx: 8,713 {vs 8,348; +4.37%} Sector +0.78% -- ATH
Ref: 11,527 {vs 11,254; +2.43%} Sector +0.86%
GenL
TRx: 54,873 {vs 54,781; +0.17%}
NRx: 21,190 {vs 21,314; -0.58%}
L
TRx: 1,574 {vs 1,675; -6.03%}
NRx: 586 {vs 592; -1.01%}
V TRx Market Share: 26.39% vs 25.77% -- ATH
V NRx Market Share: 28.58% vs 27.59% -- ATH
V Ref Market Share: 24.95% vs 24.57% -- ATH
Jan-2017 vs. Jan-2016 (Retail + Inst Data)
V
TRx: 86,096 {vs 58,265; +47.77%} – Sector -0.67%
NRx: 33,732 {vs 21,884; +54.14%} – Sector +2.76% -- ATH
Ref: 52,364 {vs 36,381; +43.93%} – Sector -2.47%
Gen L
TRx: 267,285 {vs 284,782; -6.14%}
NRx: 92,065 {vs 98,640; -6.67%}
L
TRx: 9,127 {vs 21,917; -58.36%}
NRx: 2,717 {vs 4,530; -40.02%}
V Jan-2017 Retail + Inst TRx Market Share: 23.75% vs 15.96% in Jan-2016 -- ATH
V Jan-2017 Retail + Inst NRx Market Share: 26.25% vs 17.50% in Jan-2016 -- ATH
V Jan-2017 Retail + Inst Ref Market Share: 22.38% vs 15.16% in Jan-2016 -- ATH