Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Sam81]

Coverage after earnings
New increased PT $5 by Jefferies
(Despite applying a significant ~75% risk-discount to their mixed dyslipidemia estimates and only modeling U.S. revenues)
Suntrust still set at $6

Key Takeaway -- Jefferies
Vascepa sales continued to grow steadily in Q4, as preannounced in early Jan. AMRN reiterated its 2017 Vascepa rev guidance of $155-165M, higher than we were forecasting (JEF est: $143M). The second interim analysis for REDUCE-IT is expected b/f end-Q3, and we continue to believe it can be successful on final analysis in mid-'18. We have increased our '17 Vascepa revs and pushed our DCF forward, increasing our PT to $5 (v. $4.50 previously).

We estimate total peak potential Vascepa unadjusted sales of ~$2.8 billion by 2030 comprising of $397 million in sales from severe hypertriglyceridemia (TG >500 mg/dL) and $2.4 billion from mixed dyslipidemia (TG 200-500 mg/dL). However, given that the mixed dyslipidemia market potential is highly dependent on the outcome of REDUCE-IT, we apply a significant ~75% risk-discount to our mixed dyslipidemia estimates, translating to sales of $611 million by 2030 that flows through our DCF. At this time, we only model U.S. revenues for Vascepa and do not include ex-U.S. sales estimates, including China, which represents upside.

Link Jefferies: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B57g27wC5ShhQm4xNFBSM0ttOUU/view?usp=sharing

Link Suntrust: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B57g27wC5ShhVFBYWFhoZm5hanM/view?usp=sharing