Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Sam81]

HCW Update, Buy & PT $10

Management continues to deliver beyond guidance, as we look forward to a cash flow positive 2017 and REDUCE-IT readout in 2018. Yesterday, Amarin reported quarterly Vascepa sales revenue of $38.4M, an 18% increase from last quarter, marking another period of steady growth for the underlying indication of patients with very high triglyceride (>500 mg/dL). As we have repeatedly pointed to in the past, any indication of continued new patient starts for this already approved indication should act as a cushion that de-risks the pivotal REDUCEIT topline in 2018 (company guides now for publication in mid-2018). From yesterday’s earnings call, we highlight two important points:
(1) management delivered on 2016 annual revenue guidance ($130M
actual v. prior guidance of slightly exceeding $115-125M), thereby
showing not only internal visibility into revenue sales per quarter, as well as, importantly, accurate communications to the Street on expectations (we expect 2017 guidance will behave similarly);

(2) more visibility on REDUCE-IT topline: estimated to be publicly available in mid-2018. As the REDUCE-IT readout window narrows, and with strengthening core sales in the background, we expect many investors to begin to reengage with the story especially ahead of an expected cash flow positive year.
We reiterate our Buy rating and a $10 price target.

Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B57g27wC5ShheG8waDc4MTVfbUk/view?usp=sharing