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Thanks Dokto...
I could tell this morning from your work on the patents that you are a man of both considerable skill and good character --we are blessed to have you help us and share your abilities...
I copied this from a YMB post....basically a back of the napkin valuation calculation... The valuation is staggering but actually if you follow the logic of the calks it probably does show the best case scenario upside...
"AD market is 67 billion going to 80 billion, IF AVXL gets full market share , 5x sales is the norm for valuation .
lets use 50 billion x 5 = 250 billion divided by 162m shares = 1543.00 pps , Sounds crazy but the numbers and valuation work ....And Thats a conservative Valuation .."
If you do not have expertise in bio-tech investing i suggest get professional advise prior to buying any biotech stocks...
Biogen has 230 million shares trading at $320 per share (previously were as high as $475per share recently)... currently market cap is 75 billion and was recently 100 billion... mainly after Alzheimers.. but now it looks like AVXL is more promising...
The AVXL story likely will be a major movie..It has all the international intrigue , reclusive drug inventor on Greek islands, early Israel drug development involvement, Wall Street, the shady OTC market, offshore analysts , a charismatic DR. M... and the huge unsolved market for dementia cures... Hopefully Dr. V can make a bundle also off of the movie...
Great research and value added Dok and WolfWayne: The two of you did an amazing job of clearing up the patent questions ....congratulations is in order... Its easy to see now why Dr. Chris Missling said there was no "Patent Issue" ...because there is no patent issue simply...It is my thinking also that this whole discussion centring on the patent topic was floated out there on this stock by the bear and short group to muddy the waters and spread some fear...... Lastly this stock has some of the most intelligent posters I can recall on message boards, ...both IHUB and YMB.... and frankly it makes the bashers look real weak IMO... I think the large number of smart posters is also a barometer for the quality of the stock...
Valuation:
The valuation done in the latest article on SA should be taken with a "grain of salt". For example as previously mentioned, America spent 214 billion on Alzheimers in 2014 and world wide Alzheimer costs are likely getting close to a Trillion dollars (which would be about 5 times US amount)... and this is growing fast with the aging populations.... Now the SA article gives a value to a drug (with almost zero competition) thats looks likely to cure and stem costs in this near one trillion cost market, a value of only just over 300 million.....IMO a comical valuation when you have a near monopoly.. Look at Gilead which also has a near monopoly and the cost market of Hep C is likely 5% of Alzheimers......Also why did the SA author not even ask Anavex about Epilepsy and its worlds best pre-clinical trials...and the New world Epilepsy expert who joined the company.......not even a mention....
Cover of May 2015 Fortune magazine
and main feature story for the month of May was:
"Alzheimer's: the race to a cure" and talks a lot about Biogen of course (and pre-latest results)...anyway anyone who can get their hands on the issue from this past May it is a great article....
Says AD cost the USA $214 Billion in 2014....
IMO KKD can not be trusted....Hard to say what his exact agenda is but something is definitely fishy with him and enough info is out to make up your own opinion....... and now he is trying to contact Dr. V and I can imagine how he could try to trade and manipulate the timing and actual information from that...
ya the guy was either a co-conspirator, or just smart enough to know what was going on and frantically trying to complete buying his position, prior to making things look too rosy --probably the later..... Hopefully now he will become more objective...well see what is in his pro article when it comes out for the public soon...
AMDA is insanely undervalued ...LOL.... the value of their tax asset alone is about equal to the current trading price per share (0.75) by all shares (or mkt cap) plus all debt they have......so you basically are getting the whole co for free........and in a 200 billion world market, expanding rapidly, where they have sole ownership of the best technology...crazy.... and when you watch it trade up and down for pennies and all the trading and chart strategies...sorry but it is really meaningless...
Hedgie bears created the "Patent issue" where no issue existed for obvious reasons.....They mus have been looking for issues and likely they could not find one so instead resort to a generic issue from the play book...To scare investors but they know that this patent issue rumouring can be floated out there to investors with ANY small cap bio company...as IP and patents is an evolving , new, and misunderstood topic for the most part.. and it worked to its classical effect here with this co... Did you note that they even got the author of the interview to call it in one of his YMB comments a few days ago a patent "war"...before he knew what was going on, or possibly still filling his buy order...very funny to see how gullible investors can be... BTW management of this co should be very careful how they operate this co with the details or the same bears will be manipulating law firms into launching fake law suits next...a heads up...
OSC seeking $1.5-million fine in Finkelstein insider trading
Ontario Securities Commission lawyers are seeking fines and other payments totalling almost $6.8-million from former Bay Street lawyer Mitchell Finkelstein and four others involved in a high-profile tipping and insider trading case.
OSC staff asked a hearing panel Wednesday to order Mr. Finkelstein to pay $1.5-million for tipping long-time friend Paul Azeff about three pending takeover deals, but his lawyer told the commission his client cannot afford the cost. The OSC is also seeking lifetime bans that would prohibit Mr. Finkelstein from trading securities with exceptions for registered accounts like RRSPs, and from serving as a director or officer of a company.
image: http://static.theglobeandmail.ca/e5e/report-on-business/industry-news/the-law-page/article22068433.ece/ALTERNATES/w140/OSC-finkelstein11rb2.JPG
Kim Goodman, left, walks with Mitchell Finkelstein, alleged insider-trading tipping lawyer, in the hall way of the Ontario Securities Commission during his trial, Nov. 10, 2011.
Kim Goodman, left, walks with Mitchell Finkelstein, alleged insider-trading tipping lawyer, in the hall way of the Ontario Securities Commission during his trial, Nov. 10, 2011.Brett Gundlock for The Globe and Mail
Manley
Canada needs new tools to fight corporate wrongdoing
image: http://static.theglobeandmail.ca/cef/report-on-business/industry-news/the-law-page/article23610689.ece/ALTERNATES/w140/20111110bg_Finkelstien03.JPG
Mitchell Finkelstein in the hall way of the Ontario Securities Commission during his trial, November 10, 2011.
Mitchell Finkelstein in the hall way of the Ontario Securities Commission during his trial, November 10, 2011.For The Globe and Mail
news
Five things you need to know about the Finkelstein verdict
The commission cannot impose jail terms in cases that are conducted as administrative hearings.
Mr. Finkelstein’s lawyer, Gordon Capern, said his client has already faced terrible consequences by losing his job as a senior partner at law firm Davies Ward Phillips & Vineberg LLP, and said an additional $1.5-million fine “goes well beyond the line of punitive.”
He said Mr. Finkelstein, 45, has two children to provide for, and his “brief run of high income years at Davies” have ended.
“This is very much a young family struggling to get by,” Mr. Capern said.
OSC commissioner Alan Lenczner, who is heading the hearing panel, said Mr. Finkelstein has not filed any documentation about his current financial state, but Mr. Capern replied it can be inferred from the fact he lost his job and has had to pay for his defence in the case.
Mr. Capern also revealed that Mr. Finkelstein worked for a sole-practitioner real estate lawyer for two and a half years after leaving Davies, then took a job at a real estate development firm. He said that job ended “disastrously” after Mr. Finkelstein became aware of financial improprieties and alerted authorities.
Mr. Capern said Mr. Finkelstein made no profit from his tipping, and has suffered reputational harm from the publicity the case generated. He said the bans requested by OSC staff are unnecessary to protect the capital markets from further wrongdoing because Mr. Finkelstein will never “do anything or be exposed to anything” in the future that would give him access to similar insider information.
OSC lawyer Donna Campbell, however, said significant penalties are needed because there was “egregious conduct” and tipping and insider trading “are at the severe end” of offences under Ontario’s securities law. She said Mr. Finkelstein was a securities lawyer and the other four men were registrants approved to work in the financial industry, so all knew the severity of misusing insider information.
“Each had a gate-keeping role and a responsibility to the capital markets,” she said.
She said the OSC is seeking the greatest penalties against Mr. Finkelstein and Mr. Azeff because they were at the core of the tipping and insider trading, and the wrongdoing wouldn’t have happened if they had not passed along or acted on the information.
The OSC panel ruled in March that Mr. Azeff, a former investment adviser at CIBC in Montreal, learned about deals from Mr. Finkelstein and passing along the tips to his business partner, Korin Bobrow, and to other clients and family members.
OSC lawyers are seeking total monetary penalties of $5.7-million from the five people named in the case – including $2.25-million from Mr. Azeff – as well as costs of $1-million to cover the OSC’s expenses and repayment of $120,000 in trading profits.
Lawyer Tyler Hodgson, who is representing Mr. Azeff and Mr. Bobrow, said the proposed fine of $2.25-million for Mr. Azeff is far beyond the $49,996 he personally earned from trading securities in advance of three takeover deals named in the case. He said a fine in the case should be far lower and linked to the size of the profits earned.
Mr. Hodgson said the most significant penalty, however, is the OSC’s proposal to ban Mr. Azeff and Mr. Bobrow from being registrants who can work in the securities industry. Both men are currently working at investment firm Euro Pacific Canada Inc., and want the OSC to instead order that they have to work under “strict supervision” by their employer for the next 15 years.
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/v.int/intertainment-media-inc#e7EcV68HfTIyGJEJ.99
This might/could rise quicker than typical penny stock since it should never have gone below $3 or $4 per share...Fundamentally it could go $1.00 bid tomorrow morning open and then gap up from there immediately.... however there is likely an effort to have it trade up more orderly ...could be wrong but JMHO.. This company has a $150 million dollar tax asset ...probably worth close to a buck a share alone...GLTA
good justification for holding a position Alexander77...
Profiling suggested strong look at Pershing:
Just like police do profiling of criminals to help them catch bad guys, it is a good strategy with ISR to figure out which corrupt hedge fund(s) and or corrupt pharmacies is involved in manipulating ISR stock..
The reasons Pershings profile matches are as follows:
-have shown a willingness to operate in legal grey areas (like buying stock in companies it knew (I wonder how) Valient (VRX) was about to acquire....
-have over half their holdings in health care stocks...
-willing to be patient with large short positions (Herbalife)
I hope it is not Pershing, but the profile does seem to match dead on..... but if it is, we need Icahn....
The last of the warrants converted today IMO..
Was only about a million left a couple days ago I heard, but with the strength now and the upcoming catalysts (and the two day previous close is 0.28) I am thinking any investor would use this last chance to get the conversion done in the high 20;s.... before its in the 40's...
Fake lawsuits to stop tutse:
The strategy, IMO, of the fake lawsuits is mainly to stop institutional and professional buying as most of these either have regulations agains buying when there are lawsuits or as a minimum they can not buy until their legal depts have done their DD and given the green light (and this can takes weeks) ... so IMO all buying now is retail... they timed the fake lawsuits obviously as well... so with only retail buying they can counter positive developments with naked and legal shorting, and their constant use of "fades" and bashing...
i know you can find it with the address with google, but my point is there is no path with the links on their site anymore, or using their web site search feature...
Has The Street removed the AF ISR story from web site?
I just tried going to their web site and the story does not seem to be available there anymore. I tried both looking for it in the normal location and using the site provided search engine with the story title and no results...
BTW the ISR company still has its News Release posted on its web site...interesting....
Post from yesterday updated:
"If Maxim is correct with their statement that April 2015 had more inquiries from clinics that the prior 2 years combined. Then sales could show up in the next earnings and then we have another catalyst. We may be witness to Babs proverbial "Hockey Stick"."
WOW ... read this:
"This is only the LUNG, they have BRAIN study results that are a home run, presentation on the BRAIN is going to be made on May 29 2015. Much lower LONG TERM side affects on the PROSTATE compared with slightly cheaper I-125 isotope. ISR coming up with delivery mechanisms for C-131 to the BREAST and PANCREATIC cancers. C-131 will be well know very soon in the medical community"........
May 22/2015 ISR Sharholder who worked for J&J
This maybe should be verified with IR:
but I heard ISR received more enquiries for their products in the recently past April than the previous 12 months combined....
A few thoughts on the short side strategy:
IMO they have, and are, throwning everything at the short side effort, starting with the AF article, bashers flooding every board, teams of law firms floating fake investigations, and manipulating the actual trading with strategies such as fades,, naked shorts and having committed a lot of capital to shorting in general..... and to me the stock still looks like it want to go up with all the short side head winds... Here is a scenario ...if a large pharma wants to buy this company if they commit a large amount of capital to say short up to 1/3 of the total shares, and then they make there offer to buy the company, they succeed in lowering the price of all the shares by a huge amount even though say they loose 50% on the portion shorted.... Then layer on say, a hedge fund and blog poster piggy backing with this strategy and adding more shorting and bashing and calling law firm buddies and the magnitude of the short head winds increases ... If this scenario is happening, remember to think about what the shares are worth when it "unwinds" soon..... in other words all the committed cap it on the short side is temporary... and the quoted stock price means absolutely zero... remember too these short side cartels have egos and reputations the size of baseball stadiums , ...they will commit lots of capital to show how good they are..... and show their co-conspirators how powerful they are, so they will follow them into the next deal...
You do not know what is going on behind the scenes...he could have had a good reason for his actions...and I can think of a few...
The free publicity that ISR is just starting to get will help the Company.
The CREW investigation and likely SEC investigations are just starting and with the celebrity status of JC I am expecting ultimately a movie to be made of the JC/AF/hedge fund/pharma co -- ISR dealings. I also feel likely AF will be the fall guy for the hedge funds, crooked pharma and JC... If this does in fact materialize like I expect it to ultimately, ISR will get massive free publicity from it for several years...
I can see it being bigger than "The Wolf of Wall Street"... and ISR will be in the spotlight through it....
I guess you could look at it as pay back to a company they harmed..
Seems ironic Cramer has a "BUY" rating on J&J and says he likes the president.....easy to read into this...
Getting the Cancer operations machinery and support to change at Hospitals and Doctor support takes positive studies and time. Now from 2014 and till now about 4 studies all positive have been completed and more are being done. However i think the body of proof is sufficient to get that huge machiney to start moving towards ISR now... Patients will demand the best treatment and insurance will want the most cost effective and both point to ISR.... IMO even though this stock has had several run ups and retrenchments over the years, that was while waiting for the proof in the studies.... IMO now is different and ISR should have quite steady positive development of both business and share price...JMHO, GLTA
Like the FDA said "ISR has the most innovative approach to treating Cancer in the last 20 years".
What could IsoRay be worth?
According to management, the company's current portfolio is able to secure $350 million in a $45 billion addressable market. Any statistic will tell you this market is growing, but let's stay conservative and set the growth at a rate of zero. We go with management estimates, and think IsoRay is able to capture $350 million in revenue at least, which is in our view very conservative. $350 million revenue, with 40 million shares outstanding and a price/sales multiple of 3 (industry average is much higher) translates to a value of $25 per share, or a 30X return on investment.
by Sujan Lahia March 14, 2014
In this instance unlike his other manipulations, he has gone against a flawless study and the only thing he has come up with is that management failed to disclose something that they are NOT required to disclose. This time, it is clear without a doubt that Feuhhrstein is attempting to damage share price. And only that. He is a Hack, and has taken Cramer's rag to new Lows..... Less
by redhtchillipepper @yahooBoard .....
well put.......I add also that unlike other manipulations ISR is strong enough to withstand the bashing since they do not need financing. Other biotech's they used these tactics on can get fought in a "financing trap" since when they knock they share price down and they are running out of money they need to do a financing at a very low share price, which massively dilutes and brings on a ton of selling which is a vicious circle...ISR lucily is not in this type of trap...
Yes I just watched the whole video ....extremely good information and extremely positive for IRS...
Thanks for your help...
GLTA
2. AF writes "IsoRay also plays rope-a-dope with the five-year overall survival rate of 100% for Cesium-131 patients. The company fails to mention the comparable five-year survival rate for patients undergoing surgery alone is 98% -- a clinically meaningless difference of two percentage points"
The facts again based on the link of the study results in the PR are " the five year overall survival rate for high risk patients with WR+CS131 was 100% whereas it was 97.7% for low risk patients with WR only"
3. AF write "In their conclusion, the study authors do not endorse IsoRay's Cesium-131".
The facts again based on the link of the study results in the PR are "Study authors state that for high risk WRs, we favor use of Cesium-131 brachytherapy".
Now you know who is lazy with the facts. This guy should be ignored from now on by every investor. Less
by r_taparia @ Yahoo message boards
AF takes liberties with the lung cancer results to drop the stock price
AF claims in his report that "Few investors are reading the actual study involving Cesium-131 published in the medical journal Brachytherapy. If they read the study -- and I did -- you'd see IsoRay is lazy with the facts."
Lets see who is lazy with the facts:
1. AF writes "96% of lung cancer patients demonstrated "local control" (meaning control of tumor in the lung) following surgery plus treatment with Cesium-131. But two other groups of lung cancer patients in the Brachytherapy study who had either surgery alone or a different form of radiation therapy demonstrated statistically equivalent rates of local control. The study authors note there were no differences in local control rates between the groups of lung cancer patients."
The facts based on the link of the study results in the PR are " Cs-131 was used with WRs that the surgeons deemed high risk and LC was 96.2% in WR+CS131 group versus 92.2% with WR group that did not include high risk patients". These results are outstanding for the WR+CS131 group considering it had high risk patients.
by r_taparia
The other biggie missed is the 98% to 100% comparison , is that with the 9 day half life of sir caesium
it is a quick one treatment and the radiation has a 1/2 life of 10 days.... both chemo and iodine, which were not recommended for advanced cancer, had a much longer application over several months with many applications... again huge differences.....the short half life of caesium seems to be what treats the severe cancer better and you get a short treatment to boot.. none of this was mentioned by AF...
Critical stat missed by most in the 100% vs 98% comparison
Most seem to be missing the point that the 100% survival with ISR is with severe lung cancer operations where the 97.7% comparable rate was for less advanced Lung Cancer...it clearly states in the report but instead still everyone compares 100% to 98% and says not much difference.... This is a very important difference missed... no wonder in the end the authors recommend ISR Cesium for more advanced difficult cancers... surprising people do not see this..
A Golden opportunity for an activist / re-structurer:
Simple to use the tax loss asset and general business to collateralize and refinance all debt, and add working capital ...after buying a big block of cheap stock in the market..... This would be a perfect fit for either Ichan or Ackman..
Also it is astounding that the AMDA finance staff is not working on this re-finance right now...... if they are not careful, someone else may take over their jobs unexpectedly ...
example of tax loss carry forwards for AMDA:
It looks like right now the tax loss asset is $150 million. The value of this to an take over company depends on their annual taxable income and tax bracket.... The asset would be worth the most to a company with at least $150 million in earnings and a high tax bracket. Assume Medtronic is in a 35% tax bracket, then if they bought AMDA. they would reduce their next years taxes by 35% of $150 million or about $52.5 million... What would they pay to save $52.5 million in taxes.... probably as much as $45 million is my guess... which would be about $0.75 per share for AMDA very roughly...
Why it Matters --tax loss carry forwards:
"Tax loss carryforwards create future tax relief for companies and are therefore very valuable. The laws on how tax loss carryforwards apply vary by state, but usually a carryforward from the last two or three years can apply up to the next seven years. After that, the carryforwards expire. There are rules and exceptions for almost any circumstance, so it's best to check with the IRS or a qualified tax accountant when calculating and applying tax loss carryforwards.
As mentioned above, tax loss carryforwards are valuable assets in and of themselves. In fact, sometimes companies purchase other companies solely for their tax loss carry forwards."
Co has 1/4 Billion in tax loss carry forwards good till 2023!!!!
IMO the value of these carry forwards dwarf the companies market cap many times...
From the 2014 annual report:
At December 31, 2014 and 2013, the Company had net operating loss carryforwards for federal and state income tax purposes of approximately $132.5 million and $111.5 million, respectively. The federal and state net operating loss carryforwards will expire from 2023 to 2034, unless previously utilized.
My take on CC:
-the only reason overall sales were down is because they made the error in not updating their metal products --- some of which are needed to work with the ceramic product in same implants...and therefore the older metals products held back the ceramic sales...Even with this though, ceramics sales increased 7% -- which is the main focus...It appears a bad error but they have now updated the metals (but there could still be some marginal drag caused by this), and surgeons seem happy now that the updates to metal side has occurred... if i can use a bad analogy kinda like not wanting to buy a new car because they did not update the rims to accept radial tires... BTW their year long silicone tirade growth prediction is still 15 to 20 percent...last thing i noticed, in a speech slip possibly, he said "the
contracts will be announced" ....talking about how they will achieve growth targets with OEM...