Background is in Investor Relations and portfolio management focused on energy stocks. Always looking for opportunities to learn & share more.
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The only thing that's huge about GNUS is the massively bloated dilution.
Valuation must be based largely on profitability and dilution...
How big is the POP* and how many are coming to dinner?
*Pie of Profits
That's what they were saying when shares dropped from nearly $12 on hype down to $9, then $8, then...$7.50 where I was selling. And look at where it is now!
The market doesn't disagree. The market is simply not understanding of the impact of dilution. In this case it's grossly understated but nevertheless it's real dilution. Worse, it's ongoing. And it will drive the roof down, crushing all in its way.
Not true at all.
Nothing new here.
It's up your what?
I hope it helps you manage a critically important decision.
Please let me know, won't you ?
Is this why GNUS keeps dropping---because it's popular and the latest and bestest thing since films of forty years ago?
How I wish I could paint a pretty picture for you, but I can't.
As an analyst my job was to add up positives specific to each company. I then placed these on a canvas representing competitors. Then came a backdrop representing the general non-specific environment. All this was designed to look at available information fairly and without prejudice or bias.
The one thing an analyst never allows is judgments coming from outside influencers. By that I mean we may want to know what people are saying but we dare not become swept up in their high praises or low-flying fears.
Bottom line: the smart investor decides things for himself and does not permit others to make up his or her mind about anything.
Now, then---to answer your question---
I cannot read the future of GNUS any more than you can.
Yet there are fairly routine questions I will always raise prior to taking a position in any stock:
1. What does the corporate history say?
2. How truthful are issued press releases?
3. What is motivating message boards such that there's a constant wave of high pressure being brought to bear on investors or would-be investors?
4. How profitable has the company been throughout its existence?
5. When a company issues a flurry of fast and furious PR's and shareholder letters---how much, if anything, will be backed up by SEC filings?
6. For me---the main thing will always be:
If I put money into this company three years ago, would it have grown?
If I put money into it a week ago, would it have grown?
If I put money into it today, do I have reason to believe it will grow this week? Month? Year?
Last week resident promoters insisted shares would be taking off on a non-stop special for the Moon on Monday. And now, here we are, down another 11% and the market is actually green except for us.
It's absolutely crazy to trust anything about this company's future based on answers to the above questions.
If you were my son or daughter or personal friend
I'd be encouraging bag holders to get out immediately and repurpose any money remaining. I can buy something with money, but I can't buy a damned thing with hopes, assurances and prayers from people I have no reason to trust.
I wish you the best and hope you'll act accordingly. And should you choose to stay an investor here, perhaps you will learn something very important.
Either way, I hope you find your experiences profitable.
Jugs
Yes, we are engaged in clinicals pertinent to pediatric utilization, diabetic foot ulcer treatment, vitiligo and more endeavors underway.
Things have slowed somewhat due to pressure brought to bear by Covid-10 but all storms eventually dissipate and this virus will also.
Good luck to you!
And all others here too.
lol
You will always find people to agree with you so long as it stands to bring them profits.
But not all profits come from making money.
There are also human values to be considered.
But I do understand your wish to demonstrate in favor of the company. After all, isn't that how you'll make money?
I don't need to make money, certainly not by grabbing it unfairly from the unsuspecting public. I'm too old for this nonsense.
Not everyone may understand it but we must have shorts to balance against longs. Shorts are not bad, they simply bet against the very thing we longs bet on!
Without shorts we wouldn't have an executable market auction.
Citron and Hindenburg are known for shorting. So what? Does that make them bad? I don't read their stuff as I know they're trying to influence my judgment. But I don't label them bad simply because they go their way while I go mine. I guess that makes me bad---in their eyes.
How ridiculous this all is. The bottom line:
Until GNUS produces a meaningful profit, shares are virtually worthless and shouldn't be trading anywhere near where they are. Hope and faith belong in church, not in an investment arena.
Beware the wolf in sheep's clothing posing as an investment guide!
Shorts are prolly lovin' it. I've never shorted any stock but I can imagine the smell coming out of the kitchen.
And I'm not talking about the stink of burning shorts. lolol
Be careful---Arnold may not be the only one around here holding YOUR lunchbox!
Thank you!
I appreciate your stepping up to the plate and sharing your perspective.
Yes.
But it's not likely to find bullshit going out of style.
Unfortunately the study based on having studied 52 trial participants is more than four years old.
Exciting stuff for sure but a bit dated for my taste.
You day traders yearn for quick one or two penny grabs. As a longer term investor I await dollars.
We need both strategies for a resilient market so I hope you do well.
Your information appears to jibe with other informational bits I've been seeing for some time now.
The reason these touts continue to rise to the surface here has to do with promotion. There are some here who incessantly seek to promote this stock without consideration for investor frailty. Not everybody here is well-experienced and for that reason alone the individual becomes fodder for those pushing harder.
As for why they push hard? Why, it's to try to drive the price per share higher, thus enabling the promoter to make more money! Consequences be damned, it's every promoter for him/herself. Note the inclusion of "herself" as the most flagrant promoter on this board is a woman. Her posts are disgustingly self-promoting with nary any thought or consideration for the welfare of others.
Not all people are kind and goodhearted. Some will lie and cheat and steal, probably thinking it's the best way to make money. But their premise is terribly wrong as many of us do make money through honest application.
Originally I bought GNUS at 26 cents per share. I held 31,500 shares, selling nearly all at $7.50 or thereabouts. I didn't have the good sense to sell anywhere near the top but consider myself fortunate in having done well, having gained a near-29 bagger in the process. Over the past quarter century this is the highest level multiplier I've ever experienced although I've made more money in other picks cumulatively.
My hat is off to those who were lucky in having been able to buy shares on the extreme cheap. Many were able to do it and I salute them.
For those along for the ride, allow me to suggest you consider the number on cardinal rule on Wall Street:
We invest ONLY when we can point to REALIZED profits. This means SEC filings must establish that profits have been already earned and are not based on hyperbole or boasting or doctored charts laced with the word "would or will."
My best to all except for self-indulging promotors believing themselves so important that they figure they can move a company stock trading millions of shares daily.
How absurdly self flattering!
Thanks for the suggestion but I'm doing really well in MNLO and RCEL and won't dilute my portfolio success playing with pink crud. Pinks are for gamblers.
I'm making huge money with the two picks mentioned above. You might check them out here at IHUB.
It's amazing to me that nobody is trying to revitalize this piece of crud!
Oh, it'll happen in due time---or should I say in doo-doo time.
lol
Thank you for the reminder, my friend!
I just reviewed my brokerage accounts, realizing I've been adding to positions over the last week to two weeks. And yes, I made sizable corrections.
I always set shares available for sale at $50 on a GTC+ext. basis.
I learned recently that FIDO doesn't let clients do as I've done. Instead, you can forget about the GTC with extended hours included.
My-dough won't go to Fi-do. Ameritrade/Schwab gets it done for me.
lol
What happened?
I got smart, realizing we all do things we hold to be of value. Some of those acts proved to have been borne of poor choices and lacking in a grasp of the bigger picture.
For that reason I cringe when a poster dances gleefully, pointing to the latest rounds of insider buys.
My market % gains greatly exceed those I'd be gaining had I remained an NGL unitholder. Yet I'd very much love to be a holder yet again.
It would be unreasonable for me to return to the fold at this time.
But I do enjoy watching the company regaining lost turf and most certainly hope to return, myself, when more gloom departs.
I wish you all the very best.
Gap crap is nothing more than a flap trap.
Some play stocks.
Others play people.
My thinking has it that visibility is increasing as we march towards next week and beyond. We know what to be expecting and it's becoming easier to predict, at the least---the redomiciling process coming to an end. Then we watch to see the final declaration of intent to execute the proposed reverse split.
Only after these two items are complete will we find ourselves in position to apply some sense of predictability with respect to a leveling out share price.
Last night is looking to me like a relief rally thanks to greater acceptance of the venue change. And here we are, a scant week away from major executional changes.
I strongly advise that we not buy into what I'd call a "sucker bet" today. We closed last night at $6. Logically we should trade up to $6.50 today. That suggests shares can be had premarket at a substantial savings, right?
Not for me as I'm smelling a rat going by the name of "Sentiment."
I'm waiting for the massively awaited impact of events slated for next week.
My two cents.
Good luck, everybody!
to address thinking more independently .
Sorry for the disjointed post. Cellphone anomaly.
Do you find that comforting?
Insider buys can mean different things to different people. I view them as expressions of opinion. I've seen ample instances of failed insider buys and have learned
Beautiful picture of Heaven!
But who's the skinny guy in the boat?
Now, he's booty-full.
lol
I'm afraid it's not about window dressing. Rather, the BOD recognizes that a penny stock valuation (-$5 to -$10) keeps our shares out of reach for many institutional funds. Rules prohibiting purchases of such cheap shares is based on safety---investing in company stocks with very low valuations is just not allowed by many large entities whose fiduciary duty is that of protecting capital and growing same.
Selling equity is how companies get it done. Apparently you aren't familiar with publicly traded company finance.
Thank you for appreciating my post.
As for the reverse split?
We've been told it's been deemed necessary by the BOD so as to better reflect up and coming sister biotechs at least insofar as the prevailing share price is viewed.
Would I prefer that our shares find themselves being bid higher without the proposed reverse enactment? You bet! But I'm not on the board so it's not relevant.
The past few days I've been sensing that the reverse won't do nearly as much damage as earlier expected to be the case. I don't know why my attitude has changed but all any of us can do is trust our gut feelings built from instincts and knowledge. Since I don't know nuttin' and have a little more gut than I want, I'm stuck being stoopit! lol
As divulged previously on this board, I've been adding shares. My hunch is that I'm feeling safer somehow, now with a larger position. And that may be clouding my perspective, I don't know. Yet I'm also noticing that our shares are, in fact, demonstrating greater desirability visible via the increasing market pricing now at $6.27, well up from last night's $5.96.
So perhaps the negatives attached to Avita's post-reverse split marketability will prove to have been unfounded, at least in the real world? I have no way to know but it just seems sensible to me to make hay while the sun shines. And right now if I had what felt like an incomplete position in this stock, I'd be adding. After all, I doubt any of us think that sub-$11 is the eventual higher end we can expect to see RCEL shares worth.
There's a distancing I see in this stock at this time and really---in most all stocks under consideration by investors. We want guarantees of some sort. We may look to technical analysis, charts, maps, candlestick patterns and fundamentals handed down via press releases and SEC filings.
But in the end we make our investment decisions based on anything enabling us to "feel" the stock's worthiness.
Yesterday and today RCEL wasn't just murmuring sweet things in my ear. No, she was downright screaming at me to take the gift of cheap shares that may never again drop to today's buy points. So I moved on those yells. Everything in me insisted that I follow through.
So, then---the BOD'. made it clear the reverse is necessary in order to introduce this U.S. newly domiciled stock at a price comparable to others on the same medic-oriented stage. $30 or so was foisted as a good staging area.
Frankly I don't care. The number of shares I hold is meaningless so long as sufficient value is there to be seen and treasured. And I'm betting that those responsible for advising Avita's BOD have long recognized the possibility of a short attack. So?
Well, I've got an emergency cushion ready for deployment should our shares drop massively. But I'm hopeful that the BOD has reason to NOT expect a damaging period around the corner.
We shall see, my friend.
Good fortune, all!
Avita is finding itself at present in a sea of change. Redomiciling is no small matter as, in this instance, it calls for repositioning on a global trading stage. The proposed reverse split poses additional challenges, to be sure.
That said, it appears that over the next couple of weeks things should be considerably clearer. Thus I've been on a buyer's spree...
Over the last few days I've added three thousand shares of RCEL. the first thousand came through at $5.70 with two thousand more this morning at an average of around $6.14. Pushing me to adding shares---
1. I don't know how the global market will respond to the reverse split.
2. I do know I routinely arrive at a mental picture of my "dream" position. This is so with each stock in my portfolio. I find it useful to arrive at an ownership goal as it sets the way for me to work towards size fulfillment by establishing the best mindset.
As of this morning I am now sitting on 65,000 shares of RCEL with a cost basis of $7.539.
A logical question might be this:
Why add so strongly this morning with unanswered questions regarding market behavior following implementing the reverse split?
That's a fair question and while others may answer it differently, my chief concern was that of securing my dream position. As of now I am not thinking about building out my position size, I'm happy with what I have and believe that when shares fetch $11 again, I'll be immensely happy to have what I have. And about a third of a milly richer. That'll buy the ice scream. And ice cream, too. lol
Pushing me this morning to add was the 3.5 cent rise in Australia overnite. That's a strong move suggesting we could see a rise of a half dollar in our ADRs today thru tomorrow. Having closed at $5.96 last night I figured I'd have to pay about half of the difference by tuning into things before the opening of premarket trading.
While I may have overpaid this morning, I know I'll rest easier knowing I need not concern myself with fulfilling dream position size considerations. And I don't expect I'll be fining myself wishing I'd held back. So much success derives from moving on the moment and not holding back. It's not always easy but it sure helps by getting the job done.
Looking at the share price now I see it's $6.17. I'm not ahead by much but I am happy that I need not be in the hunt for more shares. Sometimes it's very nice to watch the game from the bleachers. And I coach some others so I'm now better positioned to be of help to them. And now we're back to $6.06 so the yolk is on me---but I'm happy I have what I have.
I wish everybody the best here, as always. We have a gorgeous future ahead. This is the perfect time to be building dream positions---before Avita becomes profitable and while things are subdued due to ongoing issues related to Covid-19.
So I ask that others speak to their concerns and activities relative to RCEL. I get tired of talking to myself.
lol
Squeeze the wrong shorts hard enough and you'll and you'll wind up with a hindenburger.
Possibly a little simpler.....
We'll be holding one new share for every five old ones.
Then we multiply the prevailing price of new shares by a factor of five.
I picked up a thousand shares (old ones! lol) this morning at an average price of $5.74.
I'm older'n shit so it's making sense to me.
Of course, when you're old, everything makes sense.
Now, then, would you please tell me who I am?
lol
The decision to redomicile to the U.S. was voted upon last night in Australia and unless there's a glitch, Avita will be officially declared a U.S. company on or about June 30th.
This could be interpreted as meaning I have a couple of weeks to gather cash for shares in the event of the proposed reverse split enactment and potential for fire sale share pricing.
Goodluck to us all!
Do you really mean it?
You make sense to me!
If shares drop a lot, the smart investor adds as many shares as he can. But anticipating a drop in valuation strikes me as counterproductive unless you're shorting the stock.
I build on profit potentials, not future failure.
If RCEL puts out news likely to drive the share price higher, I'll add. And if shares should drop a lot, I'll be a buyer too. I'm always looking ahead, convinced this will be fetching much, much more in the months ahead.
This is incorrect as it fails to accurately reflect after hours activity.
The official close following the ah coda is $2.13.
MNLO is just one pick of mine out of eleven stocks in my portfolio.
It was, without any doubt whatsoever, my largest winner yesterday.
For several weeks running I've been focused on building my position. For many years I've found that something somewhere in the depths of my hellish brain rears its head occasionally in my subconscious and insists that I move strongly. Thus it is that I've added 24,000 thousand shares of Menlo over the past few weeks. That's a whole lot of money to me.
Reading the SEC filing covering Edelman's 14% stake in the company held in his top ranked Perceptive Advisors fund, I knew I had to move swiftly yesterday morning as I wanted to round out my position to the nearest comfortable place. 200,000 is extremely comfortable, believe me! lol
For the benefit of those who follow me here at IHUB, this is the pick of a lifetime as far as I'm concerned. I'd feel very guilty if I didn't speak up now about this opportunity. So, then---here it is.....
Foamix was the vehicle I signed in on back in November. The resultant merger with Menlo was completed in February of this year. None of this matters now except for the fact that the public is confused as to what the new and improved MNLO is. Whereas the share price had been much higher a few months ago, we now languish in the $2 range.
MNLO shares traded at $7 on January 15th, of this year! Today we are barely above $2. So what happened?
The merger involved one company out of Israel and one out of New Jersey.
The Israeli company didn't have much by way of money but it had a promising drug pipeline. Menlo had plenty of money and its main drug in latter stages of clinical study would be coming up for FDA review soon after completion of the merger.
Their drug failed to demonstrate any desirable level of efficacy and was tossed out. Since that time MNLO management and directors have left the company and no longer represent anything resembling the earlier managerial makeup recognizably Menlo.
Left is the combined entity in name only that we recognize as Menlo. Foamix leadership is in full control of the company now. And MNLO's money remains
Over the past few months two of Foamix's drugs in the pipeline have come up for review and in each instance the FDA granted full approval with no reservations coming from the reviewing panels. The first of these drugs has been on the market since early this year and has already proved to be a noteworthy commercial success strongly outperforming expectations.
The second FDA approved drug is expected to launch its commercial life later this year. The same sales team as used for drug #1 (Amzeeq) and pathways covering manufacturing and related commercialization issues will be incorporated into drug #2's debut.
MNLO has made it clear there is to be a reverse split. It will be up to the BOD to determine the magnitude of the reverse while the boundaries range from 1 for 2 shares (1:2) to 1 for 7 (1:7). I'm expecting something towards the middle of the range---maybe 1 new share will equal 4 old shares. At today's valuation a new share would fetch $8. I'd prefer that the ratio be more in line with 1:15.
The value of the company will not change as a result of the split. Rather, the idea is only to bring our share value into a more realistic valuation in line with other biotechs out there. This will make us much easier to sell to large institutional entities not permitted to take positions in stocks valued at less than $5.
Now, there are companies out there that are permitted to take positions in companies whose stock falls into the penny stock category such as is the case with any stock available to trade at sub-$5 per share. One such company is led by Joseph Edelman, head of Perceptive Advisors.
Mr. Edelman is the acknowledged "Warren Buffet" of the biotech sector. His fund is the most highly regaled and respected of all out of many such firms committed to getting behind biotechs.
Going to Yahoo! you'll find the aggregated valuation ascribed to MNLO is $8.81. This is a far cry from the current $2.13 which includes the gain occurring last evening during the after hours session. Upside is enormously favorable for the new investor in MNLO as we're looking at a four bagger from here.
Friday evening someone here reported Edelman's Perceptive Advisors' having doubled down on MNL0. Truth be told, I'd forgotten Edelman had a position as I hadn't seen any activity on his part in recent months. However, for the past month or so I've been steadily adding, bringing my share count from 153,000 shares up to 176,000 shares. This week I sensed something would push shares considerably higher. I have no idea what I might have been sensing, only that a sixth sense was operating without my understanding and I'd damned well better heed the call. Friends know that I'll readily acknowledge that a stock will occasionally talk to me, like a sweet lady whispering something gently into my ear. I'll notice that although I may not do anything about it as my wife would be furious with me. lol
Then there's the earbells going off telling me firmly-- not gently---that I'd better understand right now that something is going to happen and I don't want to be left out in the cold. That's when I know I've got to straighten up and fly right into a meaningful position in the particular stock. Next we have that pretty young thing shouting, "Damn it, what do I have to do to get you to do something already?" When the lady screams at me, I know it's time to do the responsible thing NOW!
That explains my piling on thousands of shares over the past month. I was listening and more importantly, I was trusting her.
Friday evening an IHUB poster brought up Edelman's doubling down on his fund's stake in Menlo. I knew immediately that I needed to act posthaste and I did---adding shares in the after hours session. At 7am yesterday (Friday), I saw the SEC disclosure myself covering details of the transaction involving Edelman's Perceptive Advisors. I moved on opportunity without delay---bringing my position up to 196,000. I then realized it's time to go for the throat, and I set up a cash transfer from my bank to Ameritrade via ACH and I bought 4,000 more shares bringing my share total to the current 200,000 shares.
A couple of days ago I was underwater. As of today I am sitting on a gain of $49,919.99.
Now, some might say that's a big gain. I don't see it what way. What I'm seeing is that a few days ago I was dragging my butt through bloody streets same as everyone else. And now I've got value sitting in my account.
Much, much more important to me, though---is that this move towards prosperity hasn't even begun! Sure, a lot of shares will do better in a rising set of metrics than a smaller position. We know that. But I'm absolutely positive these shares are going to continue their rise. Will they become twenty bagger shares? I doubt it. But I do believe we will hit above $11.00 in less than a year from here. And even if the top is no more than a quarter of my projected valuation, it's still a double. That's more than $200,000 to me, hardly chump change.
I'm asking my readers to give this stock pick your most careful consideration as I believe it will change lives through enhanced prosperity. For a long time I've been a strong follower of Avita (RCEL). This hasn't changed in the least. I've got cash lined up ready to be applied to my RCEL position, now 62,000 shares deep. But there's no question in my mind---MNLO is the place to be right now! Not a month in the future, but now---like Monday. I won't be a buyer as I've got my dream position and the sweet young thing's voice isn't bending my ear. lol
And my wonderful wife trusts me to be straight up, always.
2026----
Let's see now..........
You'll be 18 in 2026, is that right?
You're doing well for a child. Constantly complaining, arguing that everything is what "groanups" insist upon, defying authority---you've got everything just right.
Yeah, right!