Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
further news to come,in time the mktg/dist. agreement, study release, will most likely continue to escalate pps (i certainly hope chan is looking at larger partners, but do not be surprised if they go with a smaller name as it seems they want to stay in control at the beginning)
as far as pps could be explosive, but time will tell no crystal ball...
Let's just use " 5% " to get our pps.
3.333 mil x 5% = 166,500 incidents x $3500 = $583 Mil sls x ~.40 margin = $233,200,000 profit
(i believe the margin rate would be higher actually), $233.200 Mil / ~60 mil o/s = $3.88 eps
$3.88 eps x 20 pe (growth stks pe usually 20) = $77.60 PPS
But now they claim partnering is 100% needed, so assuming we split the margin (it get's much more complicated than that with these deals), we arrive at a pps of ($77.60 / 2 = $38.80)
PPS = ...$38.80
AND THIS IS ONLY BASED ON 5% OF CEO'S FORECAST...$$$
... or if you use the dilution that previous posters posted ~250 mil((1/2 of the 500 mil authorized shares)) prefered shares, warrants,options, etc. i usually just use the current o/s), the pps = $18.65 (or 1/2 for partnering = $9.33 pps)
So we range from $9.33--$38.80 PPS take your pick.
after further dd, recent developments & concerns about dilution i've gone back & dug deeper for my new PPS target...
PR article:Research & Diagnostic Antibodies LLC--http://markets.about.com/popular.htm/?GU... per the article---
"" it is well accepted that better clinical outcomes are achieved when treatment is begun "immediately after diagnosis". The cost of treating septic patients in an ICU can add ""$10,000"" or more per day to a patient’s bill with treatments lasting at least two days and often more than 20 days. Since one in eight ICU patients are at risk for sepsis, the cost in the United States alone to treat sepsis exceeds $30 billion a year.""
{my take on this article--msbt will sell,sell,sell filters}
Now read this article, ""it will raise the hair on your back""--Link,http://www.survivingsepsis.com/backgroun...
{{{Now maybe you will understand the full potential of MSBT filters !!!$$$ & where the stock price could go to if they work}}}}
New pps calculation still using just 5% of est. worldwide cases...just use 3.333 million incidents vs. 2.5 mil. per old calculation...
given the ceo of medasorb stated that the incident (patients)rate is ~ over 3 mil. (i'm using 3.333 mil.incidents now per updated info. "above article") Million/yr with access to cytosorb treatment & assuming all incidents used cytosorb filters-sales would be ~
$8,750,000,000--- BILLION---, yes billion (mature eu & us markets).
OK,, great now let's get back to what we can really expect near term (1 yr). But 1st some facts, worldwide annual sepsis expense runs in excess of $18,000,000,000 yes billion (update it appears it is much more).(& that number does not include additional hospital expense for lawsuits,& extended incident stays-many of the eu nations actually reward hospitals for getting patients out faster "translated"-give us a product that can get the patient the hell out faster by one day & we make money)
ceo stated "cytosorb has a very, exceptionally high margin & will sell for about ~$500/per filter" (one incident is 7 day avg @ 1 filter/day, so one incident cost $3500)
Let's just use " 5% " to get our pps.
3.333 mil x 5% = 166,500 incidents x $3500 = $583 Mil sls x ~.40 margin = $233,200,000 profit
(i believe the margin rate would be higher actually), $233.200 Mil / ~60 mil o/s = $3.88 eps
$3.88 eps x 20 pe (growth stks pe usually 20) = $77.60 PPS
But now they claim partnering is 100% needed, so assuming we split the margin (it get's much more complicated than that with these deals), we arrive at a pps of ($77.60 / 2 = $38.80)
PPS = ...$38.80
AND THIS IS ONLY BASED ON 5% OF CEO'S FORECAST...$$$
... or if you use the dilution that previous posters posted ~250 mil((1/2 of the 500 mil authorized shares)) prefered shares, warrants,options, etc. i usually just use the current o/s), the pps = $18.65 (or 1/2 for partnering = $9.33 pps)
So we range from $9.33--$38.80 PPS take your pick.
after many hrs of past & current dd i bought in again ,this could be a very exciting opportunity here...
(Looks like msbt trial data may not be out til spring, hold onto your shoes if it is positive , i understand per recent articles (2-4-2010) the ceo is seeing the trial participation accelerating ?))
So use current o/s or again as some have posted the full dilution, either way you have a clear winner here if trials r successful...?
GLTA & REMEMBER DUE YOUR DD "on your own".
well someone needs to talk about it , have u ran any numbers yet ???, ie:
cattle testing worldwide, hiv, malaria, etc testing,, blood bank screening, general hospital testing, etc., --i can only say that their $20 mil sls tgt for 2011 is a sleeping giant & and NO ONE is talking about it ???(( Hell the cartriges alone would generate over $500 million in revenue))
given pps buyout around $5-6 range ??? (this seems to be a focus or should i say a strong point by their ceo in the video--no he did not give a tgt price, but looking at the numbers if this tech really works & is economical would have no doubt very strong revenue potential.) given current o/s, and pe of 16, it wouldn't take much to hit $5-6
i wonder if the trials r coming along nicely & they want to identify more with the product name...once approved ???
geta is happening
i was glad for the drop added 50,000 shares under .25
i've talked to several of them over the past 9 months they are very excited --now it's in the fda hands...
sure likes like a solid floor for a base run...guess we will see ?
any guess run back to .076 range ???
what about being bought out ??? any chance on the horizon ???
as i said just some big profit taking...i still see this to .10 plus given revenue projection/eps (pretty amazing the low o/s)
appears to be some profit taking--brilllllliant !!!
yes that is correct & is why those with the know dd,,see this going up from this current pps to .80 plus is my guess ((street articles have put a revenue pps at over 1.25--1.50 range)),,i'm hoping for results to be released by end of April (the co. is anxious to move on)...
hi ho here we go and nobody is paying attention...
where r the images ???
no luck needed here...she should blow.
heating up folks, hold onto your socks...
http://www.favstocks.com/results-from-lighttouch-trials-expected-to-be-disclosed-on-march-24-27-meeting-pinkgthp-otcgthp/235590/
good link--Lgt touch replaces pap smear
http://medgadget.com/archives/2009/02/lighttouch_device_may_eliminate_pap_biopsy_for_cervical_ca_testing.html
PPS ~ $13.33 (if you compare to IMGG) see my previous post "confirm"
interesting to note (i guess seeking alpha last Oct 2009 article was right on--Link: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/401845... you compare the mkt cap of some of the medical device Co's that applied for FDA approval like IMGG ( a co that has been seeking fda approval going on 2 yrs, yes 2 years)their mkt cap on about 376,000,000 million o/s is ~$260,000,000 MILLION...for a machine that cost over $500,000.
*****THIS GIVES GTHP A PPS OF ~$13.33 ***** on an equivalent basis
if you take gthp o/s of about 19.5 Mil ((( funny this is only about 13.1 mil more than the recent high flyer Vermilion-VRML-PPS $29.75, O/S of ~6.4 Mil , authorized 150 Mil-MARKET CAP OF $191,000,000 MILLION,"note shares went from .04 cents to $1.04 in one day" )
*****this gives gthp a pps over $3.50***** on equiv basis
so fair value for gthp i guess lies between $3.50--13.33 pps, this was a quick analysis, but given whats occuring in the current mkt environment for biotech breakthroughs & new technology
it is reflective of current valuations (personally i believe it will be much higher than $13.33 given the broad mkt spectrum & breakthrough technology), can anyone say
"beam me up Scotty".
Long
not trading today yet, not listed on stock halts ???
Ray anything else in that article that u found interesting...?
glad i held off til now