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Friday, January 07, 2011 12:04:29 PM
PR article:Research & Diagnostic Antibodies LLC--http://markets.about.com/popular.htm/?GU... per the article---
"" it is well accepted that better clinical outcomes are achieved when treatment is begun "immediately after diagnosis". The cost of treating septic patients in an ICU can add ""$10,000"" or more per day to a patient’s bill with treatments lasting at least two days and often more than 20 days. Since one in eight ICU patients are at risk for sepsis, the cost in the United States alone to treat sepsis exceeds $30 billion a year.""
{my take on this article--msbt will sell,sell,sell filters}
Now read this article, ""it will raise the hair on your back""--Link,http://www.survivingsepsis.com/backgroun...
{{{Now maybe you will understand the full potential of MSBT filters !!!$$$ & where the stock price could go to if they work}}}}
New pps calculation still using just 5% of est. worldwide cases...just use 3.333 million incidents vs. 2.5 mil. per old calculation...
given the ceo of medasorb stated that the incident (patients)rate is ~ over 3 mil. (i'm using 3.333 mil.incidents now per updated info. "above article") Million/yr with access to cytosorb treatment & assuming all incidents used cytosorb filters-sales would be ~
$8,750,000,000--- BILLION---, yes billion (mature eu & us markets).
OK,, great now let's get back to what we can really expect near term (1 yr). But 1st some facts, worldwide annual sepsis expense runs in excess of $18,000,000,000 yes billion (update it appears it is much more).(& that number does not include additional hospital expense for lawsuits,& extended incident stays-many of the eu nations actually reward hospitals for getting patients out faster "translated"-give us a product that can get the patient the hell out faster by one day & we make money)
ceo stated "cytosorb has a very, exceptionally high margin & will sell for about ~$500/per filter" (one incident is 7 day avg @ 1 filter/day, so one incident cost $3500)
Let's just use " 5% " to get our pps.
3.333 mil x 5% = 166,500 incidents x $3500 = $583 Mil sls x ~.40 margin = $233,200,000 profit
(i believe the margin rate would be higher actually), $233.200 Mil / ~60 mil o/s = $3.88 eps
$3.88 eps x 20 pe (growth stks pe usually 20) = $77.60 PPS
But now they claim partnering is 100% needed, so assuming we split the margin (it get's much more complicated than that with these deals), we arrive at a pps of ($77.60 / 2 = $38.80)
PPS = ...$38.80
AND THIS IS ONLY BASED ON 5% OF CEO'S FORECAST...$$$
... or if you use the dilution that previous posters posted ~250 mil((1/2 of the 500 mil authorized shares)) prefered shares, warrants,options, etc. i usually just use the current o/s), the pps = $18.65 (or 1/2 for partnering = $9.33 pps)
So we range from $9.33--$38.80 PPS take your pick.
after many hrs of past & current dd i bought in again ,this could be a very exciting opportunity here...
(Looks like msbt trial data may not be out til spring, hold onto your shoes if it is positive , i understand per recent articles (2-4-2010) the ceo is seeing the trial participation accelerating ?))
So use current o/s or again as some have posted the full dilution, either way you have a clear winner here if trials r successful...?
GLTA & REMEMBER DUE YOUR DD "on your own".
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