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My latest DROOY read. Bought some yesterday. Bought a bit more today.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22225900
DROOY update - retest of ST highs now?
Gold in Rand terms in threatening to break to new highs.
TA wise GSS seems ready to go. Back tested breakout and very cheap FA wise. I just wish the people at NG were management vs current.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=9965305
GSS ready to retest ST highs. Good buyout canidate for NEM.
Production ramping up to 500 oz level by 2007. Very cheap, but not crazy about management.
You have any opinion on the Yen here w/respect to gold?
Don Coxe is/was of the opinion that of the last $50 or so much was related to the YEN falling and interest rates still being set so low in Japan. Seems to me the exits are going to get very crowded once Japan starts to raise (obviously markets will anticipate this). Unlike the US, Japanesse citizens actually save and they value gold.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=9685857
Yen still in it's downtrend channel, but as you probably know lots of hedge fund carry trades probably use the Yen. I'm thinking this could have a big impact on all commodities and not just gold. Of course the question is always...when.
Been a while since I looked at the sector. Like all commodities prices charged for electricity are set at the margin. A small change in supply/demand can have a big impact. It's been a while since I looked, but I don't think the supply/demand situation is tight yet. If/when the economy corrects demand should fall just enough to really hurt margins at many of these co's. I think you're more of a ST trader so these points are probably moot. I may look at AES if I have more time, but more than likely I'll just wait for energy and PMs to come to papa.
In terms of AES I'd look at when their debt comes due (any due in '06 or '07?) That's how most of the utils got so cheap. They built out massive supply during the '99-'2000 boom only to see the economy get hit and rates plummet. With RRI and many others the bankers could have closed up shop and fought over the pieces, but there were about 30 banks involved and RRI was profitable. All of RRI's debt was unsecured and most was coming due in '04. I bet that the bankers would deal w/them and won. Many of the of the IPPs/utils has similar stories. Now most of the banks have secured their loans. Not sure where AES falls in w/respect to this, but if you want sleepy FA plays then I suspect RRI or CNP might suit you better, but again I've done no real FA on AES suffice to look at Yahoo and see debt/cash flow/earnings market cap etc.
As for your points lower commodity prices can help, but most of the players set prices accordingly. Many hedge so it varies quite a bit. RRI has done poorly in the past in this regard. Margins are really set based on electric demand (economy) and A/C demand in the summer. A hot summer can have a big impact for some of these plays.
As for the legislation I haven't followed in a while so can't really comment, but to say there aren't too many players that are flush w/cash that can go on a shopping spree. As you've seen Buffet is one, but they are few and far between.
We have similar investing styles. I tend to leverage smaller "sure thing" type moves though it's been a few years since I've used margin.
AES - I was heavily invested in RRI sub 2 at one pt which looks to be in the same sector. Never touched AES that I recall. The stock seems to have recovered well, but at a glance they still appear to be drowning in debt. Are you currently long AES or just interested?
I still like RRI LT, but management has made quite a few mistakes the past few years. I'm thinking if/when the market/economy starts to crater again that electric generation will suffer as it did post 2000 and maybe we'll get some bargins again - probably not as extreme though as many of the players have reduced debt burdens. No position in RRI currently or any other util. Pretty heavy cash here waiting for PMs and energy to bottom again.
Select airlines could also be good as anti-energy plays. JBLU and FRNT look decent here. Don't follow that much though and only own modest amounts of FRNT at 7.
DROOY latest trends - 1.25 here we come...
HUI - latest trends
50 ema and daily trend line suggested that a good bounce could/should be had at these levels, but thus far nothing.
Yen currency - current downtrend channel
Given the potential size of the Yen-carry trades this might be one of more important charts out there ST, IT.
2 year comparison of yen vs gold
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ECA latest trends
Looks like it's heading lower. Great long term buy, but as always would like to get the best ST price.
Meassure rule for above pattern and weekly chart suggest possible low 30's sometime in '06.
You're preaching to the choir here.
Careful as it's a pink sheets pick. Even if you can find out more info (gonna be hard) you can't necessarily trust that info (see NWAU).
Let me know if you find out anything. Yahoo has squat.
Only got in today for the first time at 6.3. My previous analysis was more like this:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22064309
But given NG's secondary today and NAK's news I decided to finally buy.
I'm still holding more NG and I still feel it's a safer with almost equal LT upside. But right now NAK is both a ST and LT (potential) pick for me (like most of my plays).
$8 US is probably a more realistic ST target until we hit new highs. If gold goes over $600 before this run is over then it could still double from here ST imho. Gold in Yen terms is about to bust higher. I'm watching closely as they tend to buy lots of physical.
FWIW, my latest read on NAK. I still like NG better as you know overall as a LT investment, but today's PR was compelling. NG will probably be dead money for a few weeks anyway.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=22095316
WTZ vs NG
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Weekly comparisons
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Update on ANO
Patience seems to be all that's required.
They revised down their production for 2006 and increased their costs. I'm actually surprised it's not getting hit more. No position in NEM or any other gold major as they seem expensive, but still long some relatively cheap junior plays.
Update on Gold in Yen terms
Assuming Yen/Dollar ratio stays the same (big assumption), then the chart below shows the approx support pts. Interesting that these support pts correspond pretty well with support levels in US Dollar terms as well.
Weekly uptrend not broken yet, but certainly a chart that has plenty of room on the downside
Double top forming in Yen/Gold
At least in the ST if this does prove to be a double top and head signifcantly lower I suspect gold in US Dollar terms will follow. Coxe has made the stipulation that much of the physical buying for this last rally came out of Japan due to the Yen falling. I tend to agree that it's a factor. How much I can't say Not sure if this will be an IT or just a ST top, but right now this would equate to a top in US Dollar terms around 570.
Novagold cup 'n handle formation
How can this rally be over w/NG not making new highs. Best explorer play bar none for quality and upside potential.
CDE
http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/americas/12/18/bolivia.election.ap.ap/index.html
I've been light on this one since learning about the upcoming election and I've been out completely for the past 2 weeks or so. For those who don't follow it much of CDE's reserves and most of their future growth lies in Bolivia. FWIW.
Still has the potential to be a good trader from time to time due to it's liquidity and leverage, but won't be taking a larger position till this issue is resolved.
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From an earlier post I did on SI. W/respect to Bolivia the danger obviously lies in the possibility that CDE will become another KRY/GRZ. Now granted they're a multi-mine company, but much of the value is tied up in Bolivia imho. Now the odds are probably low, but if the new President even hits at the possibility as Chavez did then CDE gets a 50% haircut instantly. Not worth messing with in my opinion. MGN is fundamentally cheap and the mine was permitted once before, but obviously there's still permitting risk and it's a ways off before production. PAAS looks expensive, but safe. WTZ looks interesting, but not as liquid. GRS is actually a good silver play as well, but getting more fully valued ST of late although still cheap compared to others. Probably have the most MGN at the moment in the silver category.
I assume you're aware of the Bolivia news w/respect to CDE. Do you have an opinion on this or are you purely trading CDE on a TA basis. I've owned it in the past, but currently have no position due to this issue (not to mention management is one of the worst in the industry imho). Purely on a TA basis it does look like a buy here w/a tight stop.
What's your outlook for DROOY if it closes near the high today? Some resistance at 1.45 to 1.55, but after that looks good to 2+ in my book. Not sure why it's been lagging so much given that it's costs are below HMY and it's 50% cheaper on a reserve and production basis. Any feedback would be appreciated. I'm already loaded, fwiw.
Comparison of gold, hui, and oil
HUI and Gold
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HUI and Gold/Oil
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Long term gold/oil ratio
HUI and HUI/Gold ratio
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Comparison of HUI to Gold/Oil ratio
Not a perfect fit, but still fairly compelling. Best moves were of course linked with a rising gold price relative to oil 9 (with gold rising as well of course). Makes sense on two levels: expanding margins for the miner's as well as lower oil relative to gold corresponds with periods of declining economic activity (typically).
Gold/Oil ratio at 15 years lows just recently. I think the ratio has more room to run IT and especially LT.
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Comparison of HUI and gold itself
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Weeky gold/oil ratio 15 years
Update on GBN
Breakout, retest and another break higher. This should finally signal liftoff, but tax selling may keep it depressed relative to it's peers for a few more weeks (unless things get bubbly).
Update on gold/oil ratio
Certainly improving, but a long ways to go yet before the miners really start to enjoy increased profitability at currently gold levels.
(edit - eom)
Latest HUI trends.
Until these trends resolve, why the rush to invest?
>> $nysi prints another -20 points tomorrow then that opens the door to some quick, hard, downside possibly even prolonged a tinch. <<
Would you mind explaining the significance of another -20 pts down? Thanks.
S&P 500 in Euro terms
Strong Dollar has helped the S&P over the last year, but once it heads lower again we should see the next major move down breaking previous support.
KGC at critical pt
XNG - Looks like nice bottom forming.
Gift ST play, not sure yet about IT
DROOY getting ready for another run.
1st target around 1.60+ with potential to overshoot to 1.75 to 2.25 area.
CEF chart, nice breakout. Good way to play physical silver move until pureplay ETF comes out.
S&P 500 3 year wedge
Yields fighting to break higher
Daily
Monthly
Euro threatening new ST lows
All those deceptive posts on ENY and no comment on earnings?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/profile.asp?User=47642
21 x sales. Negative earnings. Classic pump and dump on your part. What scum.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=7920962