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A better analogy would be we're in prison and awaiting the day of our release. The further it gets pushed back, the more futile counting down the days seems to be.
That's not to say we're not still counting and hoping, but the more the boy cries wolf so to speak... the less the townsfolk will believe there's anything actually happening.
Look at the other delays... did they bring spikes to the chart? If it's delayed another month, that will cause day traders to sell as others look to buy back in. You decide which one will have more effect.
Keep in mind, not everyone waited until the last minute to sell for tax purposes and many have already returned.
"We're on the death row right now waiting for the end or the pardon. A delay will extend our life and not interfere with the pardon. So IMO a delay with just bring a spike on the chart just before those who have to wait 30 days to re-buy come in."
I felt it could have dipped back under 4 until it went north today. I'll be surprised to see it drop below 4 again... especially since we see, to have a repeat pattern here from last Friday's turn in momentum. This week... it stepped up a few clicks.
Shy of another delay, I'm gonna guess we'll see this stabilize and rise slowly as we get closer to the 29th.
With that having been said, I'm never right about anything so it'll probably drop to .02 on Monday and then gap to .25 by Friday.
Trying to buy at the ask, now 3.50 and it won't fill... NM ask just went up after ignoring me for 15 min.
Good luck....
"its going south again. if this hits .02 again, I am going to pick 200K right before the 29th."
Its not speculation that they're researching it and spending a lot of time and money doing so. The document/legal bill filed last night spells it out very clearly.
They may sue. The might not sue. They'll do whatever is best for them as per their legal team who is in fact making it a point to tell the public and the FDIC that a lawsuit against the FDIC is quite possible.
"However, there is no clear evidence (rather than a lot of speculations) that anybody from WMI is suing the FDIC. Instead bunch of people are suing the WMI for wrongly guiding the investors."
You're right... But if we're banking on a lawsuit verdict, we could be waiting a long long long long time for results.
I don't know that "fair" market value would ever come to fruition because of all of the baggage WaMu came with. Then again, JPM managed to leave a lot of that behind... and thanks to the bailout they were able to absorb the rest.
Regardless... Pull the fricken money out of the JPM account already. There's only 2 reasons I can think of that it's still there.
#1 Buyout talks...
#2 The FDIC has a claim to the money (for paying debt) if it's moved.
If #2 isn't in play... PULL THE MONEY. Fire a proverbial shot across the JPM bow. If they don't make a timely and fair buyout offer... then sue the crap out of the FDIC.
After reading through the billing records, my guess is, we'll be watching similar events unfold very shortly.
"my gut says no collusion, jpm pays 2 bucks a share. collusion, jpm/fdic/ots pay fare market value and who knows what that number would be, but with 2000+ branches, the number would be astronomical. my opinion only"
Boing!
Wonder who's buying hundreds of millions of shares with no PR, and no update from Nevada SOS or Pink Sheets?
"We need to see a share buyback..."
More info mentioned. I don't know how important any of it is.
They're researching NYT articles as well as WaMu Press releases...
Researching FOIA issues...
Possible FDIC FOIA filings
Apparently they're submitting an FOIA request for info on the receivership. Silly FDIC won't give them something.
This is mentioned
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_Institutions_Reform,_Recovery_and_Enforcement_Act_of_1989
Memo on pension plan
Looks like there's an issue with the interest rate of the deposit.
Continued research on all available remedies.
Sweep arrangements
http://www.huntonfinancialindustryrecovery.com/2008/11/articles/client-alerts/fdic-closedbank-rules-yield-surprises-for-sweep-accounts/
Exhaustion of remedies... most I could dig up on it is the following:
(e) Exhaustion of administrative appeals
Notwithstanding any other provision of law, a person shall exhaust all administrative appeal procedures established by the Secretary or required by law before the person may bring an action in a court of competent jurisdiction against—
(1) the Secretary;
(2) the Department; or
(3) an agency, office, officer, or employee of the Department. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/html/uscode07/usc_sec_07_00006912----000-.html
FDIC Resolution Manual.. not sure if this is part of it. http://files.ots.treas.gov/425042.pdf
That's it... my eyes burn. I doubt any of this is of much help, but just in case, that's a good deal of info found in the doc and some background on some of it.
Potential Claims Against OTS and FDIC!
Posted by Mr Notorious over there... but he's right. They're researching it!
"Cover Sheet and Second Monthly Application of Pepper Hamilton LLP, Co-
Counsel for the Official Committee of Unsecured Creditors, for
Compensation and Reimbursement of Expenses Incurred for the Period
November 1, 2008 Through November 30, 2008"
Look at page 35-42.
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229090106000000000004.pdf
Also of note...
"Review Indy Mac EMail" Page 38
I wonder what that was about... Oh to be a fly on the wall.
"Review Purchase and Sale Agreements" Page 50
Granted, that's a given... but it's good to know they're on it.
I don't know how that'll go over in the office, but I'll take a swig of cough syrup and do a shot of something when I get home... :O)
"Line up a few shots of Tequila, vodka, or whiskey, for every .01 we go up past .08 you must do a shot. Who's in with me?"
I'll give you a link when it's done. This one's gonna take more than 3 days... and I'm counting on others to contribute to it. Right now I'm sick as a dog and I can barely even talk.
If some people had stepped up already and hooked me with a video submission or two I could be using this time to be putting this together. Instead... I'm just wallowing in my own boogers.
I agree... Z is the man. I'd have been outta here long ago, if not just out of frustration without someone like Z there to explain things along the way.
I'm in a good position here now. I've got a little of everything with what little I could afford to invest (which is very little compared to most).
But I'm confident in knowing no matter the outcome, this was/is a good bet. It's not a safe bet by any means... but it's a good one with huge potential... and to some degree, in placing my bet I do feel like I'm pulling for the underdog, the everyman...
I like that feeling.
Thanks... I wish the video came out a little better, but it was rushed. Hopefully the next one will be better.
"P.S.-Excellent job on the video my compliments."
I love those that try to "shape" thoughts by "sharing" their sells. Can't lose if you sell along side of me, kinda mentality.
It's so ridiculously transparent... and yet so effective on these boards.
Use your brains kiddies... think for yourselves, be it sell or hold. Don't let anyone "shape" your thinking. Make your own mistakes and reap your own rewards.
"be smart people BUY and hold like the good ol days before this stupid internet took over,whomever sells will regret it very bad,just have the patience"
I love then the bid is higher than the ask... that tickles my funny bone. I think most of us knew this was going to get hit at some point. Shy of a buyout it couldn't rocket up like that forever.
From Wikipedia...
Take it for what's it's worth I guess.
"To receive this benefit, member banks must follow certain liquidity and reserve requirements. Banks are classified in five groups according to their risk-based capital ratio:
Well capitalized: 10% or higher
Adequately capitalized: 8% or higher
Undercapitalized: less than 8%
Significantly undercapitalized: less than 6%
Critically undercapitalized: less than 2%
When a bank becomes undercapitalized the FDIC issues a warning to the bank. When the number drops below 6% the FDIC can change management and force the bank to take other corrective action. When the bank becomes critically undercapitalized the FDIC declares the bank insolvent and can take over management of the bank."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Deposit_Insurance_Corporation
Capital Groups and Supervisory Groups
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Overview The FDIC uses a risk-based premium system that assesses higher rates on those institutions that pose greater risks to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF). Under the rule adopted by the FDIC Board in November 2006, beginning in 2007, the FDIC will place each institution in one of four risk categories using a two-step process based first on capital ratios (the capital group assignment) and then on other relevant information (the supervisory group assignment). Within the lowest risk category, Risk Category I, rates will vary based on each institution’s CAMELS component ratings, certain financial ratios (for most institutions), and long-term debt issuer ratings (for large institutions that have such a rating).
Capital group assignments are made quarterly in accordance with the FDIC's Rules and Regulations, using the method agreed upon by the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) Surveillance Task Force for calculating capital ratios. The method uses data reported in an institution's Report of Income and Condition (Call Reports), Report of Assets and Liabilities of U.S. Branches and Agencies of Foreign Banks, or Thrift Financial Report. No changes to capital ratios are considered except for amendments to the previously mentioned reports.
Capital Group Descriptions
"Well Capitalized." Total Risk-Based Capital Ratio equal to or greater than 10 percent, and Tier 1 Risk-Based Capital Ratio equal to or greater than 6 percent, and Tier 1 Leverage Capital Ratio equal to or greater than 5 percent.
"Adequately Capitalized." Not Well Capitalized and Total Risk-Based Capital Ratio equal to or greater than 8 percent, and Tier 1 Risk-Based Capital Ratio equal to or greater than 4 percent, and Tier 1 Leverage Capital Ratio equal to or greater than 4 percent.
"Undercapitalized." Neither Well Capitalized nor Adequately Capitalized.
Supervisory Group Descriptions
Group A. This group consists of financially sound institutions with only a few minor weaknesses and generally corresponds to the primary federal regulator's composite rating of "1" or "2."
Group B. This group consists of institutions that demonstrate weaknesses which, if not corrected, could result in significant deterioration of the institution and increased risk of loss to the DIF. This group assignment generally corresponds to the primary federal regulator's composite rating of "3."
Group C. This group consists of institutions that pose a substantial probability of loss to the DIF unless effective corrective action is taken. This group assignment generally corresponds to the primary federal regulator's composite rating of "4" or "5."
http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/insurance/risk/rrps_ovr.html
So say we all...
Ironically... they just kept bragging about how this cost them nothing. If it ever went to court (which would likely take years to be settled) just as we that story about the Texas bank that won it's lawsuit against the FDIC, they could be on the hook here big time.
It wouldn't shock me if this turned out to be the straw that broke the FDIC's back, which again could have been averted had they just waited a day and allowed the bailout to run its course.
But that's the game... I really do think that we are watching the systematic destruction of our entire economic system.
It blows my mind when I see Marines and other fighting men and women posting on here and they never ever ever even blink at whats happening. Countless lives have been lost in the name of this Republic.
And we all just sit back never questioning a damn thing as they openly embrace socialism?
People really need to start speaking up about this stuff before we lose the right to do so. Socialism is what it is. America as we know it is likely gone forever.
On a brighter note... Go Wamu! And thanks for the great info.
"Lastly, there is the potential that the amount that JPMC has paid to the FDIC for the portions of the property in receivership they wished to possess will be increased should the amount be determined in the courts to be significantly undervalued. While the FDIC did have an obligation (by their code) to keep the impact of the receivership on the insurance funds to a minimum, they also had the obligation to MAXIMIZE the returns on the assets of the bank.
That being said, we can make a general comparision to the Indymac numbers and see that there is a significant apparent disparity in the valuation of the assets for Wamu.
Link to the FDIC document: http://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/reshandbook/ch7recvr.pdf"
The problem is, you'd have to argue against the powers that they already have. A car insurer doesn't have the power to seize your car, the FDIC however, does have the right to seize a bank.
Regardless, when Bair goes on record bragging about how they dumped WaMu for 1.9 billion so as not to have to dip into their funds... that should be a red flag, not praise worthy news.
I don't have the time to go through the legalities of it, but you would think they have some responsibility to the banks that paid millions if not billions into their coffers... a responsibility that if acting in an emergency, they will still do what they can to get a fair price for the banks.
Chances are though... no such responsibility exists. We can piss and moan about common sense all night, but these people are all crooks. The guys running WaMu were crooks, JPM is made up of crooks, the Fed, the FDIC...
The people that get destroyed on their whims are the normal people... ya know, those of us that don't shit 50 dollar bills.
Anyway... I still maintain that we need to be asking ourselves why after 100 years they're coming out into the open and screaming for us to pay attention to them now. Something's wrong with that picture... very wrong.
"Another way to see it is like THIS:
We pay car insurance for protection in the event of an accident. Using this analogy, the same car insurance company also has the right to seize your car because you were caught delivering pizzas in it (high risk) instead of simply raising rates or cancelling your insurance.
In essence, the car insurance company would NEVER have to pay on an insurance claim, because THEY seized the car."
Yeah man... I've seen that flick about 10 times. I know ALL about the Federal Reserve.
How much of that can be included, I don't know... since it would probably take 3 years to explain all of that. I hope everyone else that reads this will watch that film though. It's the only way anyone can really make sense of what's going on.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6507136891691870450
Here's the irony in the whole thing...
"The FDIC estimates that even after that payment, IndyMac's failure ultimately will cost the agency between $8.5 billion and $9.4 billion, consistent with the agency's earlier estimate of $8.9 billion. [bold]There is no direct cost to taxpayers because the agency is funded by fees collected from the banking industry.[/bold]"
So why should I or anyone else care if the FDIC takes loses? That's why they exist. They're part of the government, but like the Federal Reserve are a private entity.
If they're underfunded then we should be asking... How? Where'd all the money go that these banks have been paying into the system? If they can't cover adequately, then why do they exist?
But for the sake of "keeping the status quo" take a minute fraction of the 7-9 trillion in bailout money and stock the FDIC to the gills with loot so they can afford to take loses on failed banks in a way that will allow for them to be sold off fairly... so that investors aren't wiped out for the sake of the FDIC maintaining liquidity.
Sad to say, but our system is coming apart at the seams. It's happening in broad daylight so that everyone can see it. The injustice is just now coming into view and like a birthing child, we're just not seeing the head emerge. The rest of the child will soon follow.
Make your own assumptions as to why this is happening. Just remember that for some odd reason a hundred or more years of what's been done in the dark is now coming out into the open... meanwhile as we're looking at it, it's screaming nothing but lies at us. Lies that are easily proven false.
The FDIC and The Federal Reserve are devious little manipulative "agencies" set up to mask those that control them... ie the banks themselves, JPM, GS, etc...
What's happening now is what they have constructed to happen. What is revealed in the press which they own... is what they want you to see. It's all by design.
But heck, soon enough everyone will want to try something new. They've already promised us that solution. Socialism 101... Study up so you're prepared for it.
I wouldn't want Dimon/Bair on the stand. They'd both lie. What proof would WMI have in order to link the two aside from hearsay?
WMI could go after the FDIC which would likely take close to a decade to see unfold. Bopfan seems convinced that JPM could be forced to pay "a fair price"for the assets/banks and that would be nice, but I wouldn't count on it.
I think right now we've got to hold long term and not look for overnight feel good solutions or we're setting ourselves up for a roller coaster of disillusioned disappointments.
I'll look forward to the outcome of a lawsuit once I see one filed. Until that point, it's kinda like expecting your favorite baseball team to win the world series when it's still only spring training.
Baby steps guys.. baby steps. It'll all become clear in time. Today was nice and I hope we see more and more green in days to come, but if not... keep thing in perspective and we won't be crushed into giving up hope prematurely.
Te more hypothetical drama we gear up for and then are crushed when it doesn't pan out, the less tolerance and energy we have for reality.
"it's all about suing the fdic and linking jpm to the lawsuit either directly or indirectly. the fdic disadvantaged wmi. could you imagine getting dimon and bair on the witness stand and ask them about conversations regarding the jpm buyout of wamu and when did those conversations take place. the law is the law and does the fdic want to go to trial, not in your life."
Same here... and I always love an underdog.
I don't think anyone will likely find the potential gain we've got here with odds like this more than once or twice in a lifetime.
That having been said, I do believe that shy of a buyout, this is going to be an uphill battle.
Hopefully WMI and long term investors will be rewarded for their patience.
My point was, shy of a buyout... I don't believe for a second there's going to be any kind of overnight solution/bailout that's got anything positive for WMI included in it.
I know many don't agree and that's fine. It's just my gut and semi educated feeling.
"Well, aint you a bucket of sunshine....lol., just kidding. I think we all know this baby is a long shot. I still think the odds are better than the Florida lottery, so I'll just stick with it."
This statement seals the deal. There's nothing left in WMI that is "systemically significant" to anything but the WMI system.
The major loss of confidence and destabilization thanks to the decimation of WaMu already happened. It's a done deal so to speak.
There's not a heck of a lot of anything to bail out at this point and if anyone would get re-evaluated and granted more bailout gift cash, it would be JPM.
Perhaps someone that might think to buyout WMI could be included in such a case by case scenario, but other than that, I think anyone and everyone would be hard pressed to find a way to spin the shell that is WMI as something that's failure would be anything but pleasing to the FDIC and those that control it.
I know a lot of people won't agree with that, but it does seem like every time one of these "financial" bailout upgrades breaks everyone instantly ties it into WMI. The timing of the WaMu seizure should remind you guys to keep things in perspective. They didn't want to bailout WaMu at the time and now... we'll, just forget it.
If there's no buyout, WMI will be fighting tooth and nail to survive this. If anything they'll be fighting the very system we're watching dole out all of this tax payer cash to those that should have been allowed to fail before the US of A would ever consider social fascism as a solution to anything.
"the Treasury said it will consider targeted investments and asset guarantees for "systemically significant" financial institutions whose destabilization could cause a major loss of confidence that disrupts markets and weakens the economy."
These are investments that require WMI to pay into them each month. It makes more sense to sell them off than to continue fronting cash to uphold WMI's end of the bargain.
"Why would they want to sell anything....looks like the more they have would bring a better price selling all at once."
Perhaps they've restructured some of their more immediate debt and are liquidating assets to alleviate some of that. Also, some of the assets they're dumping are investments that require them to "pay into" them to keep up their end of the investment.
It's probably best for them to get rid of these kinds of assets that could drain the coffers in the early phase of restructuring.
I think the sleeker they get the more attractive they're going to become to a buyer. Less baggage means a cleaner deal.
"If they have 4.4B in cash why would they need to sell 200M to cover operating costs?"
Will do... I just hope to get at least a couple of people to step up to the plate. Footage of any "protests" would also work nicely.
I agree with all of that. I would/will include it all. If the protest happens and I can get a copy I would absolutely include it. More than anything though... I need some people on the record. Not one person has emailed me to say they're willing to do that.
Tons of "I support this, it's a great idea" emails, but no one wants to go on record.
the point is to get faces on this so it's not just me lecturing about it and no one wants to step up. I'll put something else together, but how effective it is in getting the message across is going to be up to everyone else... and no one seems to care enough to do anything but piss and moan about it.
I've also been contacted by the Seattle Business Journal and they want to do an interview... but I really hate to say, oh yeah... so far I've got me and no one else cares.
Yeah that was me...
I predict the same. I also predict a buyout before Jan 29th. I think a lot of people selling now will either not come back or will try to eek out a quick buy (back) in after 30 days (just in time for the next hearing) for tax purposes.
Timing is everything. When is that hearing about the cash? Jan 29th? End of the year is when?
How many people could be left out in the cold that sell now and try waiting the 30 days to get back in just before the hearing, should a buyout occur between now and then?
Yeah I predict it... buyout between now and Jan 28th.
But then again, when the hell have I ever been right about anything? It's my lot in life to suffer.
I'd have given up long ago if it the micro sells weren't happening so clearly that even a dolt like me can see them.
"There had to be tax selling today and probably be tax selling tomorrow...so it may go lower if it does that will be the low.... I predict...people can sell tomorrow and count it 2008."
I think he was referring to the things we already know about. I'm 99% sure he doesn't have any info than we have. A bigger brain for this stuff than I've got... yep. But the inside scoop, I don't think so.
The question is, how many people are selling at or below 3 bucks?
I got mine at or below 2 and I wouldn't sell them for 3.
"Have you seen the WAMPQ's trade??? The demand is there but it can't get past $3.00"
Strangely enough the tax guys do or have done the taxes of just about everyone on WMIs top 20 list. Big business is so incestuous.
From what I know, most of the bigs are holding uqs and I believe pqs. I'm a little tyke playing with a little of each.
I'd suggest mixing and matching, but a lot of guys here swear by the commons.
"Would you prefer commons or preferreds or both to play this thing?"
Anyone know how we can get a hold of it? The article mentions documents. I don't recall seeing any documents regarding a Citibank bid.
"I would think the bid amounts need to be made public. We should be able to get that information from the FDIC, shouldn't we?"
Nope, maybe someone else does. I didn't even know there was a bid from Citibank. Everything I remember said JPM was the lone suitor and as such they were given the banks for peanuts and cheese.
"Do you happen to know how much CitiGroup bid on WAMU even though rejected. Thanks"
I was just making the same connection. They had the money to cover WaMu but didn't want to "risk it" just in case other banks failed. That's how they validate takinganything JPM offered to get WaMu off of their back.
Now I don't know the legalities here, but I am starting to think that WMI will have to step up and take on the FDIC as far as settling for any price so as not to risk their own hides.
Is that what they're paid for? As the receiver aren't they supposed to act in WaMu's best interest and not their own?
If I knew about the Citibank offer and just have drawn a blank on it, then so be it. What was the offer? The only reason the FDIC said no is because it was nonbinding? Did the FDIC make any effort to make it "binding"?
I think the FDIC is going to have a hard time explaining their role as "receiver" being that of taking anything so as not to have to dip into their coffers.
I'm probably wrong about that and they can probably do any damn thing they want as their own website states they answer to no one in the government... but wow.
And that's ignoring all of the other questionable facts.
"The FDIC had 40 Billion in reserves and when they raised the coverage to 250 K per acconnt that would only be able to cover 160,000 accounts..no wonder they were in a panic!!"
Did we ever find out which branches JPM is keeping? I believe the date of that submission has come and gone. Did they only give up the branches mentioned in the "JPM not to renew" leases article?
Citigroup Bid on WaMu Before JPM Bought Them?
Sounds like it was pre-seizure. Did anyone else know this? Any idea what documents mentioning this bid are or what the offer was? Maybe I knew this as well and forgot. My mind isn't what it once was.
"In the frantic days before Washington Mutual was seized by the federal government, a handful of suitors — including eventual buyer JPMorgan Chase — were rumored to be interested in acquiring the beleaguered Seattle bank.
In fact, newly released documents show that only one other company made a bid for WaMu: Citigroup. But the bid was nonbinding.
Citigroup’s offer did not meet the criteria set by regulators, leaving JPMorgan Chase & Co. as the sole firm bidder for the 119-year-old Seattle institution.
If Citigroup’s proposal had been accepted by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which was handling the sale of WaMu, the fate of WaMu’s banking operations and employees could have been significantly different, according to legal experts and a former executive of the bank."
http://www.bizjournals.com/portland/stories/2008/12/22/tidbits1.html