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A little bit on why MVTG tech is so important, on PBS at 8 PM tonight:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/nature/photographing-earths-melting-ice.html
LOL, IMHO no sane person that knows the facts about this company, would touch the stock at any price today, or any time soon unless they just love giving away money.
I still would not pay .0000001 per share for this worthless junk.
I agree. Only question is when and why will the tide turn on these stocks.
The problem may not be the question of whether they have new tech or not, but may be the problem of getting it to market at a profit. It can years to get something like this to go commercial and get it funded. And record low natural gas prices are not helping.
Interesting to see the panic selling gone now, and low volume sideways prices now.
I am still in for the long haul, as I have said all along. There were multiple law suit filings by law firms (ambulance chasers) with no clients, right after the first wave of articles came out a year ago posting baseless claims of fraud against ABAT and dozens of other China operations based/US stock held companies, like ABAT. Non of the law suits can go anywhere with out old time shareholders footing the bill and agreeing to become the ambulance chaser law firms client. And even if one of them does, there is doubt that those lawsuits can ever win or if they won ever seize assets not in the USA, so it is a bit like an ankle bitter, all noise and no bite IMHO. I am under the impression ABAT has already or is planning to counter sue the short article liars that caused the sell off to begin with. Several others have counter sued the same authors already.
ABAT just recently proved the new plant is real, and is now in production with a huge open house that was well covered in the news, so the next 10-Q is likely to detail record increases in revenue, and profits with that plant in operation now.
LOL, glad you liked that one!!!!
"IMO, that spells dilution (one way or another)...and with the company so silent, logic tells you to assume the worst."
Assuming the worst, may be a bit too conservative!!!! LOL
Only reason the doors are not completely closed with this junk in Chapter 7, is the crooks still need to dump millions of new shares to convert that huge debt. Once all the debt is converted and dumped this one will be closed down in Chapter 7 IMHO. Or creditors will just seize the remains. Buzzards are circling the carcass already.
LOL, I love this part in the third link you posted!!!!
"and was replaced by Brian Wilmot, an oil industry veteran[color=red][/color], as CEO. "
ROTFLMAO!!!!!
Oh, and it seems to our detriment, Wilmont is also persistant, :(
That is typical of that sort of a notice. It just covers the legal issues so that they can purchase shares with up to $500,000 any time they see fit to do so. To buy before giving disclosure would be violation. Also just a notice to the market that they feel the stock price is too low. If they actually post Form 4s, of actual buys, that may set a bottom?
I still have some shares in this one, but I have not followed it closely lately. I have been waiting for them to see enough positive income quarters back to back to get a good head start on paying down the debt they incurred to build that new plant. And meanwhile China/US stocks have not done well all year, so I have avoided buying any more yet. I have no idea when or where the bottom is. And I have not really looked closely at the last 2-3 quarterly reports. My biggest concern was dilution to pay off some of the capital cost loan from the new plant, if profits were not good enough the first 12-24 months. I think it is a good company to own some of, just a question of timing and price...value.
I think Guggenheim was an 8% interest, but they paid in more than 8% in cash, more like 20% of well cost, and MNLU and AEXP brought the acreage to the JV deal, plus the the other 80% cost of the well?
I talked with Steve Harding today, AEXP CEO. He says that while the merger was pending, AEXP hands were tied, and they were stuck in limbo, and could not actively work on anything else. Now that the merger is dead, they can work on other deals and funding. In other words, it looks like Steve and the core inside investors of AEXP may have some other prospects and deals in mind now that their hands are no longer tied, while they wait on MNLU and BV to got the moon or bust. IIRC Steve was the one that found and started the whole BV, BP#1 well deal. Does not sound like AEXP will just dry up and blow away, no mater what happens to MNLU.
They certainly did not make it obvious to us!!!
So, MNLU will now have 105 (apx) million shares outstanding, AEXP is still only about 60 million shares. Both are still do or die (for the most part) dependent on the JV success of the BP#1 well, BV Joint venture, getting into production. The PR says AEXP still holds 20% interest in the JV. So if we do a little math, and take and assume for now (right or wrong) that all the real value is in the JV (and assume that MNLU debt, a negative, and Excess MNLU leases beyond the JV, is a plus, that for the moment cancel each out, and yes that is debatable..., but follow me for the moment), Then the market cap of AEXP could be pegged as 1/5th of the market cap of MNLU (as a very rough napkin calc, and yes it does ignore other factors, and we can discuss and debate those, so look for any holes in my math, and assumptions), but for now:
105 million MNLU shares, at .175 = apx 18.4 million dollars market cap for MNLU at the close.
60 million shares, AEXP, and 1/5th the market cap (the 20% of the JV deal, and note that MNLU must raise the cash to get and keep the JV moving, and AEXP has no more liability to raise cash!!!!!), so 18.4/5 = 3.68 million dollar market cap estimated value for AEXP (which is I believe very conservative if all the assumptions and inputs are correct)
then 3,680,000.00/60,000,000 = .06/share value for AEXP
If this is even close to right, AEXP is way oversold friday!!!!!
Furthermore, there is far more risk now that MNLU will further dilute shares to raise cash and extend other leases, or somehow impair stock holder value with new debt....., while AEXP as far as I can see, has no need to raise much if any cash in the current deal situations.
So if I take .175(MNLU)/.06(AEXP) = I get a ratio of about 3:1 as an arbitrage ratio value for MNLU:AEXP!!!!
So, MNLU will now have 105 (apx) million shares outstanding, AEXP is still only about 60 million shares. Both are still do or die (for the most part) dependent on the JV success of the BP#1 well, BV Joint venture, getting into production. The PR says AEXP still holds 20% interest in the JV. So if we do a little math, and take and assume for now (right or wrong) that all the real value is in the JV (and assume that MNLU debt, a negative, and Excess MNLU leases beyond the JV, is a plus, that for the moment cancel each out, and yes that is debatable..., but follow me for the moment), Then the market cap of AEXP could be pegged as 1/5th of the market cap of MNLU (as a very rough napkin calc, and yes it does ignore other factors, and we can discuss and debate those, so look for any holes in my math, and assumptions), but for now:
105 million MNLU shares, at .175 = apx 18.4 million dollars market cap for MNLU at the close.
60 million shares, AEXP, and 1/5th the market cap (the 20% of the JV deal, and note that MNLU must raise the cash to get and keep the JV moving, and AEXP has no more liability to raise cash!!!!!), so 18.4/5 = 3.68 million dollar market cap estimated value for AEXP (which is I believe very conservative if all the assumptions and inputs are correct)
then 3,680,000.00/60,000,000 = .06/share value for AEXP
If this is even close to right, AEXP is way oversold friday!!!!!
Furthermore, there is far more risk now that MNLU will further dilute shares to raise cash and extend other leases, or somehow impair stock holder value with new debt....., while AEXP as far as I can see, has no need to raise much if any cash in the current deal situations.
So if I take .175(MNLU)/.06(AEXP) = I get a ratio of about 3:1 as an arbitrage ratio value for MNLU:AEXP!!!!
Interesting day.
1.8 million shares AEXP traded on a not so good news day (only way I know to phrase it) and yet we did not make a new low, and instead held above the 52 week low!!!!!! This just may bounce some next week?
"Here's a thought. If MNLU acquires the needed funding and/ or a JV partner, I would expect a buyout at some point. If the BV is as successful as we all hope then AEXP with a 20% interest still holds a very substantial value."
That is exactly why I did not sell today!!!! The only change is we don't swap for MNLU shares, and AEXP did not need to dilute to raise cash to pay to keep the leases, MNLU gave up shares instead. So instead of 20% of MNLU final shares post merger, and thus owning 20% of the post merger company, we get 20% of about 25% of the original Miss lease post merger number (was about 27,xxx acres IIRC), with out the need to raise huge amounts of cash (via dilution???), or risk MNLU BK for failure to raise the cash. MNLU has about 20 times as much debt as AEXP by my figures, and most of the AEXP debt is owed to MNLU!
So I suspect AEXP is a better buy today than MNLU, because the JV acreage will have the most value the soonest!!!!
All they really need to do is file annual reports for now, once a year and wait for MNLU to do the rest, and wait for the cash to flow with the gas flowing. The real concern, still, is can MNLU finish the well and get things moving. Both still hinge on that! Delisting is not a concern, it is already Pink IIRC, and can stay pink if it just files an annual report each year, is my understanding.
No employees means no dilution, and no increasing debt!!!! MNLU needs to raise the cash now, which may mean dilution there!
I am inclined to agree with the last several posts. If anything I think AEXP is the better priced risk today than MNLU, as it has less debt, no pending dilution, and just needs to wait for MNLU to get funding, and get that well producing. It makes since that this may have been the plan, or back up plan by some insiders all along and may have been part of the cause of the delays in getting funding this year.
No and I have been way too busy to check.
Merry Christmas all!!!!
I am holding too, just too low to sell here.
And anyway you slice it we are still hitched to MNLU survival, so I don't see that a lot of short term value or risk has really changed, long term potential value is down for AEXP, but not the near term value.
And it could be viewed as positive news for MNLU (as that lease issue may have been part of what was holding up MNLU financing?).
I do not believe that is correct. IIRC AEXP has no further "obligation" to contribute to the costs for the 20% interest. I believe they already reduced the % AEXP ownership in the JV because of the prior default nearly 2 years ago? But we should verify the current % interest, and the no further costs to AEXP, among other things since they failed to disclose current default as a pending material problem!!!
So what is the consensus here?
At 60 million shares, and very little debt, the market cap at a .02 share price is already down 1.2 million dollars. They have virtually no overhead expenses right now, and still 20% on the JV deal (assuming MNLU survives), and since the property owner on the other leases cut a share deal and 5% deal with MNLU to release the other acres to MNLU, that is a vote of faith in MNLU.
Certainly was not good news, I really don't like the fact that AEXP and MNLU never told us those leases were in any danger of being lost ahead of time!!!!
But I just can't see selling now at 2 cents?
20% of the first working well, if MNLU ever gets off their ass, could be a very sweet deal!!! Plus 20% of the additional 8,xxx acres still in the JV deal. I also wonder if at some point down the road, if MNLU gets back on its feet, if their might not be a new merger at different term rates someday down the road.
I got some of those cheap ones, so they are locked up now!!!
And yes, it was nice to see the uptick, and price hold up on the unusually high volume for MVTG. Gives one a glimmer of hope!
The China/US stock (Like ABAT) plot thickens!!! I am seeing more of this lately!!!! Hopefully this will spill over into helping ABAT longs!
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/silvercorp-metals-inc-chinese-law-enforcement-agents-open-criminal-case-investigate-tsx-svm-1600858.htm
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Dec. 20, 2011) - Silvercorp Metals Inc. ("Silvercorp" or the "Company") (TSX:SVM)(NYSE:SVM) has been advised that Chinese law enforcement agents have opened a criminal case to investigate and find the creators of false and fraudulent reports by anonymous parties such as IFRA, Alfred Little and others, attacking Silvercorp and its Chinese subsidiaries.
In September 2011, the Company also filed a lawsuit in New York County Supreme Court charging defendants Chinastockwatch.com, Jerry Katz, Alfredlittle.com, Alfred Little, Simon Moore, and several "John Doe" defendants with spreading "false, defamatory and fraudulent" information about Silvercorp on the Internet and in letters to the media and regulators. It has also filed two separate actions in British Columbia, Canada.
Even with an independent KPMG forensic report reaffirming the Company's business in the face of a short and distort attack, the Company is still receiving odd and disconcerting communications from anonymous callers.
On November 1, 2011, someone claimed to be Peter Li, representing a US based investment fund (who spoke Mandarin with a Cantonese accent), telephoned (using a Guangzhou phone number) sales department of Henan Found. From the caller's odd and aggressive behavior, Silvercorp believes the caller was trying to falsify information that he could use to attack Silvercorp in an out of context audio recorded conversation; the Company understands that similar tactics were commonly used in Alfred Little and IFRA reports in attacking other Chinese companies.
In November 2011, a mining engineer at Silvercorp's Beijing office received several emails from an employee of the Singapore branch of Guidepoint Global, LLC, who stated his name was "Hang Ming". Hang Ming asked the mining engineer to work as their agent at RMB 2,000 per hour. Hang Ming wrote in his email that he received a request from an analyst named "Soldo Marko" who works for a US based hedge fund. Hang Ming asked the engineer to have a telephone interview with Soldo Marko in a way, we believe, to attain insider information on Silvercorp for trading. The Company understands that the FBI has previously investigated agents of Guidepoint Global and subsequently charged such agents for tipping confidential information of publically traded companies to hedge funds.
LOL, the other 2% shot first and ask questions later, LOL!!! I know, I am a native Texican!
The ABAT ticker here should be working again here tomorrow.
Morning AEXP'rs, nice volume and all at the ask today!!!!! A very good sign!
Here is a good sign that the tide may be turning for stocks like ABAT!!!!
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=50496313&symbol=DEER
This is about a sister like company that is suing the liars and cheats that put out the attack articles on several China/USA stocks that caused the original sell off here.
This case just may set some precedence in the courts, and the others may back off and watch and wait to see how it turns out, or follow suit, with their own damage suits. Frankly I hope ABAT sues the liars and follows DEER's lead.
On August 29, 2011, we obtained a Court order allowing us to effect service of the summons and complaint upon defendant Alfred Little via email and related notice. We effected service on Alfred Little pursuant to that order."
The December 19 threat, circulated by electronic transmission on one of the Alfred Little websites, demanded that Deer either withdraw its lawsuit against Little now pending in the Supreme Court of the State of New York, or suffer the consequences of a reign of terror that would begin today December 20 via additional attacks upon Deer by Little via electronic publications on the internet. The threat caused a sharp drop in Deer's share price on December 19, 2011.
In a recent blog post, "Alfred Little" threatened to continue publishing what Deer believes are false statements about the company based on fabricated data. The "Alfred Little" blog post further stated that "f DEER wishes to prevent further investigative research from appearing on A*L [the "Alfred Little" website] the company needs to halt its legal proceedings and leave our contributors and us alone." Deer believes that this recent blog post by "Alfred Little" is an attempt to force the company, as well as other plaintiffs, into withdrawing pending lawsuits against "Alfred Little," and its conspirators.
Deer views the new actions of "Alfred Little" and others as an attempt to subvert the normal course of the judicial process. They will not succeed in coercing Deer to withdraw its lawsuit and bring the culpable parties to justice for their relentless unsubstantiated attacks. Deer remains in full compliance with U.S. securities laws.
Could be taking a tax loss on AEXP, and buying back early with MNLU, to make sure he does not miss the rally or news!
It does tend to bring new eyes to look at the stock. And with those new eyes seeing the recent big bounces, they may buy, helping the rally side. One needs to look at the holistic picture, and use the Force "Luke", LOL.
Also, these research reports are not self funded, some one is paying for them!!!! Question is who and why?
That data must be wrong, it is still officially 80.9, I have seen a lot of services with bad data on a bunch of stocks lately.
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/MNLU/company-info
That earlier post had other bad data also, like 3.94 PE IIRC.
I have no clue, I do know it was not the price of Natural Gas! LOL
But it is typical of prior, early stage rallies, and showed a lack of sellers left jumping ship now on MNLU, even with a huge one day rally!!!!!
I have one odd idea, maybe a tax loss seller selling AEXP at the bottom, and buying MLNU at the same time, to maintain a position, and yet take the tax loss, arbitrage deal? But it looked more like someone knew something big is coming for MNLU. The divergence with AEXP is the odd part, but I have seen MNLU lead AEXP just like this before, several times!!!
Sorry guys, been busy with my paying job, LOL.
krowa,
If all goes well, 4 shares of AEXP will be swapped out for one share of MNLU in the merger, so you need to watch both boards, both stocks. These two companies have a JV well and overlapping property in Miss, the BV site, and BP#1 well. Sitting on nearly 1 billion dollars in natural gas, between the two companies. More info is in the MNLU board sticky notes. During rallies like today, MNLU usually leads, but there have been exceptions.
My Fidelity broker data shows 438,xxx shares on the ask at .05, is that right? And a new low of .03 hit today, on low volume?
Been out of pocket guys, and will be busy for a long while now. Just dropped in and it seems something is up. Has any one figured it out yet?
I was out for 2 days last week and another one of my picks rallied 300%, and then dropped 50% late friday. I missed that show, LOL.
I wonder if an MM walked AEXP down to grab stop loss shares while they could, and now AEXP is trying to follow MNLU higher?
1.3 million shares traded now on AEXP!
LOL, been off line for 4 days, and been way too busy with my day job worked way too many hours, so I missed the party the last 2 trading days here! Still holding all my shares, long (I had no standing orders). Looks like Batman had quite a ride!!! LOL
Do think there were any institutions that bailed while they could, or just a typical pull back Friday?
Geo knew, he was posting about it here and on Go Hainsville about the details as it was drilled. I think he had relatives in the mud supply end.... It was near 20 lbs IIRC, and they were hitting pressures in the 20,000 psig range, at about 400 F at the bottom 2000 feet. It is a vertical section of about 2000 feet that is the real pay, naturally fracked.
Actually it has held up rather well since the August low. I think a lot people just took profits at the recent bounce high, and are looking to see if the 52 week low holds on this ride down. Also Friday was quad witching options expiration, and a lot of stock prices and indexes are totally gamed to force MaxPain on options, and many stocks get left in the dust, or gamed up by market manipulators at these times. I was actually surprised FBC did so well the last 2-3 months. I am still sitting on 90% loss here, holding long.