InvestorsHub Logo
Followers 743
Posts 61882
Boards Moderated 10
Alias Born 10/05/2009

Re: None

Saturday, 12/24/2011 12:11:05 PM

Saturday, December 24, 2011 12:11:05 PM

Post# of 6903
So, MNLU will now have 105 (apx) million shares outstanding, AEXP is still only about 60 million shares. Both are still do or die (for the most part) dependent on the JV success of the BP#1 well, BV Joint venture, getting into production. The PR says AEXP still holds 20% interest in the JV. So if we do a little math, and take and assume for now (right or wrong) that all the real value is in the JV (and assume that MNLU debt, a negative, and Excess MNLU leases beyond the JV, is a plus, that for the moment cancel each out, and yes that is debatable..., but follow me for the moment), Then the market cap of AEXP could be pegged as 1/5th of the market cap of MNLU (as a very rough napkin calc, and yes it does ignore other factors, and we can discuss and debate those, so look for any holes in my math, and assumptions), but for now:

105 million MNLU shares, at .175 = apx 18.4 million dollars market cap for MNLU at the close.

60 million shares, AEXP, and 1/5th the market cap (the 20% of the JV deal, and note that MNLU must raise the cash to get and keep the JV moving, and AEXP has no more liability to raise cash!!!!!), so 18.4/5 = 3.68 million dollar market cap estimated value for AEXP (which is I believe very conservative if all the assumptions and inputs are correct)

then 3,680,000.00/60,000,000 = .06/share value for AEXP

If this is even close to right, AEXP is way oversold friday!!!!!

Furthermore, there is far more risk now that MNLU will further dilute shares to raise cash and extend other leases, or somehow impair stock holder value with new debt....., while AEXP as far as I can see, has no need to raise much if any cash in the current deal situations.

So if I take .175(MNLU)/.06(AEXP) = I get a ratio of about 3:1 as an arbitrage ratio value for MNLU:AEXP!!!!

Ambition with out knowledge is like ship in dry dock. Going nowhere fast!

Join the InvestorsHub Community

Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.