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So, how many does after Sanofi's CP for Lovenox was denied by the FDA, did the FDA approve MNTA's generic lovenox?
Also, did the FDA wait till the last possible day to respond to Sanofi's CP?
It is just mind boggling. There was one minor bump from 11.35 to 11.55 and then it dropped all the way back to 11.15 or so when this news came out.
MNTA is truly dead for now. No interest what so ever.
No insider buying since 2006
http://openinsider.com/search?q=mnta
There are numerous companies where the insiders sell relentlessly. Yet, when the price drops far too low, some of them step up and buy some. INFN (tech) is a good example. The insiders stepped up and bought when it dropped below $5. UPL (nat gas) is another. They were selling in the 50s all the way to the 90s. However, they stepped up and bought when it fell below $20.
http://openinsider.com/search?q=infn
http://openinsider.com/search?q=upl
For MNTA, no price is too low for them to buy. That is what is discouraging. Yet, they have no shame in telling others to buy the stock as it offers a compelling value.
INFN and UPL insider buys helped me and I bought more.
Right now, even though I think it might be a long term winner, the lack of insider buying is not giving me a lot of confidence.
But that is just me. I have been burnt in 2011/2012 by MNTA (or Amphastar / FDA) and so I am a little more careful here.
Anybody has any opinions on this? I guess people will need to listen in on Monday to get a better idea of how this will be helpful going forward.
Right now nothing seems to move MNTA.
I guess everybody is anxious to see what they say about their generic Copaxone in the earnings call.
This will be the first time in nearly two years I will be listening in on a MNTA earnings call. My biggest loser from 2011.
Who knows, it could be a big winner from here on in 2014?
acgood, jq1234, mcbio,
Thanks for all your feedback on TKMR.
Any thoughts on the ALNY data from yesterday and today?
Dirk felt that it de-risked ALN-TTR02 and the SNALP Delivery platform. He felt comfortable enough to buy TKMR yesterday
http://rnaitherapeutics.blogspot.com/2014/04/big-de-risking-of-aln-ttr02-and-snalp.html
I already have enough TKMR Was thinking of ALNY at these levels. Now, 112 to 48 is quite a slide.
Biomarin calls active today.
Their earnings are on 5/1. They have missed earnings 3 of the last 4 quarters
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=BMRN+Analyst+Estimates
It looks like the May 60 and 65 calls are being bought heavily today
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=BMRN+Options
Interestingly enough BMRN didn't move much yesterday when it got European approval for VIMIZIN.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/biomarin-announces-european-commission-approval-150626744.html
Anybody here interested in BMRN at these levels? 85 to 57 is quite a drop (of course that is nothing compared to others in the Biotech carnage list).
If VRUS was worth $11 Billion, is it unreasonable for ENTA to be worth $5 Billion?
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20111121005623/en/Gilead-Sciences-Acquire-Pharmasset-11-Billion#.U1eVUfldXlc
I will be happy with even a $3 Billion buyout. VRUS when it was acquired, was not as far along as ENTA is now. I don't understand why ENTA is still so cheap. Isn't this derisked more than VRUS was when it was acquired?
What does GILD's blow out earnings mean for ENTA?
-- Did everybody underestimate the market opportunity/size?
-- Could GILD do 10 Billion in sales this year?
-- If ABBV / ENTA start selling their drug on Jan 1st 2015, what could 2015 sales look like for GILD and ABBV?
-- What could be the low / high range for ENTA royalties in 2015
Thanks,
DB
PS: Dew, awesome pick Thanks!
Will this provide a big boost to ENTA tomorrow? I have lottery May $40 (0.70 cents) and $45 (0.30 cents) calls.
I was hoping that the AbbVie filing news would come before the May Op Ex deadline. Hopefully the EU filing comes before that deadline.
Of course, I have ENTA shares purchased in the 32-33 range. I foolishly sold the ones that I had bought at $20 at $28 a while ago
My largest biotech holding by far
Too bad it didn't hold the pre-market $44. I did sell 2% of my shares at $44 just based on what happened a few months ago where it hit high 40s pre-market and then finished the day much lower. (Was that the day Drisa failed?)
I wish IHub had a like button for messages
Damn! I should have loaded up on calls below $11. I was afraid of more set backs and a stock price in the 7-8 level.
Hopefully we get Copaxone approval soon now.
Now we need a survey of people's opinions on whether MNTA gets approval in 2014, 2015, 2016 or gets a CRL in 2014 or 2015
mcbio,
You are right it is 5% for the two ALNY drugs. 5% of 2 Billion is still good money -- 100 million. TKMR has just 22 million shares. Hence the $4+ EPS if this were to happen.
The potential for these two ALNY drugs is what drove it (ALNY) from 20 last year to 120 earlier this year.
This is from the Motley Fool when they promoted ALNY at $60 last year. True they pump up numbers sometimes However, I have seen these numbers outside of Motley Fool.
TKMR at $13 with $7 in cash seems like a good deal to me.
Tekmira EV stands at just $146 million.
22 million shares after the recent $60 million secondary. Total of about $140 million in cash with the $16 million payment from Monsanto.
Partnerships with Alnylam, Monsanto and the US Govt Ebola vaccine contract.
RBC put a $30 price target and claims that there is no value attributed to the Ebola vaccine in that $30 target.
https://twitter.com/TomSilver39/status/457018951596142592/photo/1
If those who claim that between the two TTR drugs for FAP and FAC, Alny could potentially have 2+ billion in sales are correct, then that means Tekmira could earn 100+ million annually in royalties. ($4+ EPS for 22 million shares)
The recent deal with Monsanto
http://investor.tekmirapharm.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=818786
All this suggests that Tekmira is an incredible bargain here.
Now, if you start talking about Ebola, this is a tremendous value at these prices. Better say than MNTA or even ENTA
http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/16/health/gupta-ebola-ward/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
https://propthink.com/investors-revisit-tekmira-following-yet-another-capital-raise/
http://www.fiercevaccines.com/story/ebola-deaths-rise-135-vaccine-research-lags/2014-04-17
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_04_17_ebola/en/
Any thoughts on TKMR at these prices?
Thanks.
I had this exact situation. I had purchased a stock on 1/19/12 and sold it without realizing that I had purchased exactly a year earlier on 1/19/13.
In my Merrill Edge tax statement it was listed under Short Term gains. When I imported it into Turbo Tax it grouped it under Long term gains.
I am guessing that Turbo Tax has a bug?
Knowing MNTA, I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop to the high 7s / low 8s when we get the bad news that there will be no generic Copaxone till Sep 2015 at the earliest
I wouldn't expect anything less from MNTA.
I think the safe way to play this is to always purchase puts (protection in case if a nasty drop) when you buy shares at prices greater than 10.
I guess that is the pessimist in me
Seems true.
Many Americans have poor health literacy
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/28/AR2011022805957.html
Many patients, Robinson said, won't ask questions or say they don't understand, either because they are intimidated or worried about looking stupid. Some simply tune out or shut down, she said, and "a lot of people take things literally because of anxiety."
Robinson recounts one such case: A patient who had been prescribed daily insulin shots to control his diabetes diligently practiced injecting the drug into an orange while in the hospital. It was only after he was readmitted with dangerously high blood sugar readings that doctors discovered he was injecting the insulin into an orange, then eating it.
There is more to this conspiracy theory
FDA Commissioner Dr. Hamburg's husband is Vice president for a Hedge Fund. This hedge fund own $343 million worth of GSK stock
Peter Fitzhugh Brown, husband of Dr. Hamburg, VP of Renaissance Technologies
http://www.yatedo.com/p/Peter+Fitzhugh+Brown/famous/768652af5704cc19a1b2149beacc89bf
Renaissance Technologies Holdings
http://www.j3sg.com/Reports/Stock-Insider/Generate-Institution-Portfolio.php?institutionid=3847&DV=yes
GSK is its ninth largest holding
At the very least this is a conflict of interest
They were supposed to divest of all drug-company stocks. I guess they mean personal holdings. However, he benefits if the hedge fund does well. The hedge fund should have sold too. In my opinion.
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB124328188115551961
The new commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration is among the wealthiest Obama administration appointees, with income of at least $10 million in 2008 thanks mostly to her husband, a hedge-fund executive, according to financial disclosure forms.
Margaret Hamburg and her husband, Peter Fitzhugh Brown, must divest themselves of several hedge-fund holdings as well as some of Mr. Brown's inherited drug-company stocks so Dr. Hamburg can take the post as the nation's top food and drug regulator. Mr. Brown is a lieutenant to hedge-fund magnate James Simons.
Finally, GSK has the best FDA drug approval rate of all major drug companies
http://www.fiercebiotech.com/story/glaxosmithklines-fda-batting-average-tops-industry-lilly-not-so-much/2014-03-07
I know I will be ridiculed for my conspiracy theories. However, you have to admit something is odd here
Ha! April Fool's day!
Wheeler is no good at golf too?
No insider buy in MNTA at all, ever. Look at the long history of sales in this company.
http://openinsider.com/search?q=mnta
It is like they don't believe in their own company. Unlike, say SRPT where people were buying after a 300% rise in the stock price last year.
"There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again."
Oh, boy! Fooled again. This is just not worth it. It is a horrendous stock. It may be a good company? with an absolutely abysmal legal team and a not so good management team.
Or it it one of the unluckiest public companies ever?
Let us see if the dreadful management steps up and buys some shares here.
Denies? Or is the decision just postponed to the 28th?
http://www.supremecourt.gov/Search.aspx?FileName=/docketfiles/13-854.htm
~~~Date~~~ ~~~~~~~Proceedings and Orders~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Nov 4 2013 Application (13A458) to recall and stay mandate pending the filing and disposition of a petition for a writ of certiorari, submitted to The Chief Justice.
Nov 5 2013 Response to the application (13A458) requested by The Chief Justice, due Tuesday, November 12, 2013, by 10 a.m.
Nov 12 2013 Response to application from respondent Sandoz, Inc., et al. filed.
Nov 13 2013 Reply of applicant Teva Pharmaceuticals USA, Inc., et al. filed.
Nov 13 2013 Application (13A458) denied by The Chief Justice.
Jan 16 2014 Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due February 18, 2014)
Feb 5 2014 Brief of respondents Sandoz, Inc., et al. in opposition filed.
Feb 19 2014 DISTRIBUTED for Conference of March 7, 2014.
Feb 26 2014 Reply of petitioners Teva Pharmaceuticals USA, Inc., et al. filed. (Distributed)
Mar 10 2014 DISTRIBUTED for Conference of March 21, 2014.
Mar 24 2014 DISTRIBUTED for Conference of March 28, 2014.
CEMP down 12%
HALO down 12%
STML down 11%
AEGR down 10%
ECYT down 9%
OMER down 8%
BDSI up 0.5%
Reimbursement for Breast-Cancer Risk Test to Be Cut
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304361604579288591617575358
Rate Cut to Go Into Effect on Jan. 1
The price of a popular genetic test that predicts women's risk of breast cancer is likely to drop in the New Year after the agency that administers Medicare benefits said it would slash its reimbursement rate for the test by half.
The rate cut goes into effect on Jan. 1, 2014, with consequences for genetic-testing companies, particularly Myriad Genetics Inc., MYGN -0.21% the dominant supplier of screenings for mutations in the genes known as BRCA1 and BRCA2. Medicare will pay a maximum of $1,440 for the BRCA test, a 48.5% decline from the rate of $2,795 it paid in 2013, according to a notice published Friday afternoon on the website of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.
MYGN, GHDX could take a beating tomorrow. Or is this priced in?
Interesting discussion. Thanks everyone for your input.
So, is the consensus opinion here on MACK is that at 200 Million market cap last month it was a great buy and a 400 million market cap now, not so much?
Interestingly enough, most analyst targets are in 8-10 range with somebody even having a $16 target.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=MACK+Analyst+Opinion
We can now add:
1. AMRN blow up which benefited GSK
2. FDA moving the goal posts for SRPT.
Hmm! What are the chances that GSK makes a bid now for SRPT?
Yes, I am angry today
What are the chances of ENTA getting cut in half on not so good results?
I did okay even with SRPT getting cut almost 65% because of protective puts.
However, ENTA doesn't have options. So, I am a little concerned.
Especially after seeing ONTX drop from 30 to 12 on no significant news.
OGXI -- Upgraded by Needham with Price Target of $30
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Needham+%26+Company+Upgrades+OncoGenex+Pharmaceuticals+(OGXI)+to+Strong+Buy/8814772.html
Hmm! With the stock at 7.21, the price target implies an upside of about 320%.
What is the story with this stock? They have nearly $4 in cash.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=OGXI+Key+Statistics
I am wondering if XNPT will be bid up today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-15/xenoport-investor-clinton-group-urges-horizant-shift-ceo-change.html?cmpid=yhoo
XenoPort Inc. (XNPT), the maker of the drug Horizant to treat restless-legs syndrome, should shift spending to an experimental multiple sclerosis treatment and replace its chief executive officer, shareholder Clinton Group Inc. said in a letter to management.
Clinton Group has increased its stake in the drugmaker to more than 1.3 million shares, President Greg Taxin said in the letter today addressed to XenoPort CEO Ronald Barrett, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News
I like UPL here. Yes, Biomaven, I too would be interested in knowing what Nat Gas stocks you like.
Are you interested in WPRT at $24?
This doesn't make any sense. Is the UBS analyst saying that Roche is going to cheat and not pay Halozyme all the royalties that it may be due?
Nice way to start the day! Too bad I only had a few calls and about 2000 shares
Does this make Sucampo a buy here at 5.7, I wonder? The relentless insider selling doesn't help.
I have a feeling that this stock could be significantly higher but for the idiotic insider selling.
jq,
It is time to update your list
TSRX acquisition by Cubist is complete.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cubist-pharmaceuticals-completes-acquisition-trius-203000413.html