alive and kicking
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Vinman, RVNC is going up, against a very experienced, very professional, established salesforce. They have faced competitors before and fared very well.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see RVNC in the $10-$12 range again. To the extent that its salesforce is able to deliver product to end customers and the end customers see the significant advantages that due diligence does, substantial price gains above the 30s are definitely possible.
At this time, there’s still uncertainty.
My guess is that Revance has gone through the transition from being an emerging biotech with a price based upon wishes dreams, and High Hopes to being an established biotech, whose price is based upon actual earnings and ROI.
The CD stream will not begin before next year. And with what the market has learned about the aesthetic stream, that’s going to be a very slow build up.
RVNC
It's a grind for long term holders too, since you are missing returns over 5% in T-bills. When short term rates were close to zero it was a different matter.
One other point to repeat is that CD rollout doesn't start until next year. I think that is part of the problem - people expected sales to start ramping.
Yes I was off on timing visa vie the lawsuit and the reviral purchase although it’s possible PFE was aware in advance of the filing that there was an IP issue surrounding paxlovid
Flo,
How the hell are you??
Vinny
Secondly, I understand EDP-235, 938, 514, 323 are the names of inhibitors. I am not entirely sure if people call them a pipeline or not. I thought we call them a pipeline.
If I were wrong, you could say in detail.
Firstly, what I said is not Paxlovid has better data than EDP-235.
In fact, I was asking from what perspective EDP-235 is better
Not just blaming. I think you should study how to speak to people. The way you use is so violent and rude. I am not sure whether it derives from your arrogance or pride or whatever.
It's not all that surprising we have 2 insiders posting pretty different opinions in the early days. The company made it clear there is a learning curve here with the slow measured launch, but it's nice to get more granularity around this from you and the other poster so thanks
Also there is some bad blood between PFE and ENTA re the lawsuit.
My guess is ENTA wanted to progress the RSV opportunity further until there is an inflection point w more value and reviral was ready to sell for cheaper before POC data.
It is biotech though and surprises happen, and besides sometimes the best time to own a stock is when it is the least loved by the street
What kind of person are you making me.
I listened conference call and watched the slides
How do you think I know the name of company's pipeline.
And there is someone who claim about Paxlovid's 2Q revenue. You can easily find him
That person is Not You though
You did NOT say about Q2's Paxlovid revenue.
I do not know how long you followed Enanta.
And I don't know how well educated you are.
But this attitude is not that nice of you as a person.
You could just say what it is.
You DO NOT HAVE TO BUT.
Oops, I see my error, or rather my lack of specificity! 😀
Dennyboy,
I appreciate your take. You may indeed be right.
Actually he sounds exactly like someone who owns an aesthetic practice. I saw them many times in my day. They feel as if they are untouchable.
I've seen the data of EDP-235 and it has more steep data than Paxlovid. But I am not a doctor, and I don't exactly know how much it has more powerful efficacy than Paxlovid. I hope it is way better for lots of patients and us. That was the reason I posted it. Whoever saw the graph would know that simple information. Don't be mad. I apologize for my poor knowledge. I am just an investor who is trying to grasp about this company for my future investment.
By the looks of the data, it doesn't show strong potency compared to Paxlovid.
Anyway, I've listened about the 'waste water' in 3Q C.C. of Enanta. Do you happen to know where to see the data of it?
and when did I say something wrong about Paxlovid sales? I've only asked about 23.2Q. revenue. Isn't it 143m? I've seen it on 10Q, sec.gov.
Great and informative post Emannow.
This guy sounds like a total idiot and the best thing he could do is cease and desist immediately! I guarantee this practice will be presented with a lawsuit!
Love the quote in the black box! It is very accurate.
But the guidance is still less than last year, like 1 of 3.
Do you think the transition to traditional commercial markets is better for Paxlovid's revenue? Care to elaborate?
I have heard of the seasonality of them and I have seen cases of covid-19 spike. But when you go to CDC and see the data of patients, which is not that many.
Look at 2022 2Q revenue. Don't you think it is almost the end of covid?
However, the FUD machine is now in full effect for RVNC and there are people here who appear to have highly suspect motives.
Do we really need 20+ posts dedicated to the difficulty of administering this toxin properly? I appreciate your sentiment, but the other half of me wonders if the poster got exactly what they wanted.
These posts about what is going wrong with RVNC launch at this tiny practice went from, "the launch didn't blow me away so I don't stock it", to, "real reason we don't stock it is because this toxin is giving my patients severe headaches" . Posts dedicated to what could specifically could be going wrong do not belong on this board IMO and that's what this has now turned into
In the daxi trials rates of headaches on placebo were 2 percent vs 6 percent but numbers are small so data can be noisy (4 headaches between the 2 RCTs out of 200 or so)
You should cease injecting patients until you figure this out, IMO.
They already showed statistically significant benefit on symptoms in P2 Jake.
Regulators are going to approve the next Covid antiviral on clinical benchmarks, not virology. Are you paying attention?
Your FUD will not be welcome here much longer.
IMGN gave a presentation at the Canaccord Growth Conference. It sure gives me more confidence that Elahere sales are going to rapidly grow and that IMGN's prospects for significant stock price appreciation are quite good. Befow is a link so you can listen. The presentation is only ~25 minutes long.
https://investor.immunogen.com/events/event-details/canaccord-genuity-43rd-annual-growth-conference
In our sample size of 13, it looks like everyone is getting different results. There’s no rhyme or reason as to when it wears off on each person.
There are also significant headaches for a few people that don’t get them on other tox. 3 of the staff actually refused the free repeat treatment and paid for another Tox.
Where in my line of thinking am I off base if you would care to comment? TIA
I just get the feeling the investment firms playing with this stock and sending the PPS in the opposite direction the small investors think/expect it “should” go.
I'm inclined to think CD approval is mostly baked into the price. Anyone disagree?
Do you think covid is over or it is just because of the cycle?
Avir is a bad example, but PFE, GILD, Shionogi, etc. all have covid antivirals in development so clearly there is perceived need and path forward.
Shionogi's phase 3 in Asia that was successful read out last year in a seropositive population too, albeit largely nucleocapsid negative (but seropositive to spike bc of vaccination). Luly mentioned that this japanese poopulation was like 10% nucleocapsid positive and 90% seropositive overall
I'm not looking to defend the report since I disagree with conclusions
Enanta downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan 06:25
ENTA
JPMorgan downgraded Enanta to Underweight from Neutral with a $14 price target. The analyst sees an "undifferentiated" efficacy profile for EDP-235 post the Phase 2 SPRINT readout, and with pivotal development for the asset subject to partnership, a challenging path ahead for the candidate in COVID-19. Moreover, independent of partnership, there are several hurdles to both successful trial execution and detection of clinical benefit with a direct antiviral in a post-COVID exposed setting, with a commercial launch likely a 2027 or beyond event,
The bull case is $78 and the bear case is $2 (assumes no therapeutic revenue).
The 3 arms of the "recover-vital" portion of the NIH trial are testing a 25 day regimen of paxlovid, a 15 day regimen with 10 days ritonavir, vs ritonavir plus placebo for 25 days
I have no idea why the 15 day course only has 10 days of booster. Seems like that could be a setup for paxlovid resistance if someone on this regimen contracts covid along the way while being given a subtherapeutic dose. Even the 25 day arm could get infection since the drug failed to prevent transmission in household contacts I guess, but I don't understand giving the virus exposure to low dose of the active agent - i mean that is how resistance is bred in a lab I thought?
AVIR modifies phase-3 protocol for COVID antiviral, bemnifosbuvir—(f/k/a AT-527):
https://ir.ateapharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/atea-pharmaceuticals-reports-second-quarter-2023-financial
In November- in 3 months- I will have owned Enanta stock for 10 years.
In November- in 3 months- I will have owned Enanta stock for 10 years. It has always been a roller coaster. I think it's fair to say that it is a stock that sometimes gets abused in run ups and shorting. It's just a good vehicle for both.
I hope that a partnership is forthcoming, but I'm prepared to wait. My faith isn't badly shaken.
There are those that would tell you the company is right where it should be at this stage, but the market has clearly spoken. It's going to be a much longer, and much more expensive slog than I ever realized. To me 2nd quarter #'s were key, and it's obvious to me excitement in marketplace is lacking.
One thing I had not appreciated is how word-of-mouth and patient specific treatment practice is. The combination, in off-label particularly, would almost certainly slow uptake, particularly switching. Eg in the post below the md notes it took 5 runs to get dosing right in his CD patient.
dewophile, randychub and dennboy66,
Thanks for the information and advice. I always wondered how after hours trading was done. I can check it out just to see but I have no plans to do so, yet!
Great post willyw.
I was assuming that if there was an agreement it would be announced at the presentation. At market close I saw that there wasn't. I knew the stock would drop. That's the market talking.
Theres original antigen sin. Variant boosters really dun offer additional protection. Bivalent didn’t offer much better protection than the Wuhan.
Added at 17
The Q2 RVNC earnings report.
- Q2 total revenue of $58.1 million, a YoY increase of 104.9%.
- Q2 RHA® Collection revenue of $31.8 million, a YoY increase of 24.7%.
- Q2 DAXXIFY® revenue of $22.6 million, a QoQ increase of 47.1%.
- Bolstered financial position with $100 million net proceeds from ATM program and $50 million in notes available to be issued through Athyrium Capital on or before August 31, 2023.
- PDUFA date of August 19, 2023 for DAXXIFY® for the treatment of cervical dystonia.