alive and kicking
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What kind of person are you making me.
I listened conference call and watched the slides
How do you think I know the name of company's pipeline.
And there is someone who claim about Paxlovid's 2Q revenue. You can easily find him
That person is Not You though
You did NOT say about Q2's Paxlovid revenue.
I do not know how long you followed Enanta.
And I don't know how well educated you are.
But this attitude is not that nice of you as a person.
You could just say what it is.
You DO NOT HAVE TO BUT.
Oops, I see my error, or rather my lack of specificity! 😀
Dennyboy,
I appreciate your take. You may indeed be right.
Actually he sounds exactly like someone who owns an aesthetic practice. I saw them many times in my day. They feel as if they are untouchable.
I've seen the data of EDP-235 and it has more steep data than Paxlovid. But I am not a doctor, and I don't exactly know how much it has more powerful efficacy than Paxlovid. I hope it is way better for lots of patients and us. That was the reason I posted it. Whoever saw the graph would know that simple information. Don't be mad. I apologize for my poor knowledge. I am just an investor who is trying to grasp about this company for my future investment.
By the looks of the data, it doesn't show strong potency compared to Paxlovid.
Anyway, I've listened about the 'waste water' in 3Q C.C. of Enanta. Do you happen to know where to see the data of it?
and when did I say something wrong about Paxlovid sales? I've only asked about 23.2Q. revenue. Isn't it 143m? I've seen it on 10Q, sec.gov.
Great and informative post Emannow.
This guy sounds like a total idiot and the best thing he could do is cease and desist immediately! I guarantee this practice will be presented with a lawsuit!
Love the quote in the black box! It is very accurate.
But the guidance is still less than last year, like 1 of 3.
Do you think the transition to traditional commercial markets is better for Paxlovid's revenue? Care to elaborate?
I have heard of the seasonality of them and I have seen cases of covid-19 spike. But when you go to CDC and see the data of patients, which is not that many.
Look at 2022 2Q revenue. Don't you think it is almost the end of covid?
However, the FUD machine is now in full effect for RVNC and there are people here who appear to have highly suspect motives.
Do we really need 20+ posts dedicated to the difficulty of administering this toxin properly? I appreciate your sentiment, but the other half of me wonders if the poster got exactly what they wanted.
These posts about what is going wrong with RVNC launch at this tiny practice went from, "the launch didn't blow me away so I don't stock it", to, "real reason we don't stock it is because this toxin is giving my patients severe headaches" . Posts dedicated to what could specifically could be going wrong do not belong on this board IMO and that's what this has now turned into
In the daxi trials rates of headaches on placebo were 2 percent vs 6 percent but numbers are small so data can be noisy (4 headaches between the 2 RCTs out of 200 or so)
You should cease injecting patients until you figure this out, IMO.
They already showed statistically significant benefit on symptoms in P2 Jake.
Regulators are going to approve the next Covid antiviral on clinical benchmarks, not virology. Are you paying attention?
Your FUD will not be welcome here much longer.
IMGN gave a presentation at the Canaccord Growth Conference. It sure gives me more confidence that Elahere sales are going to rapidly grow and that IMGN's prospects for significant stock price appreciation are quite good. Befow is a link so you can listen. The presentation is only ~25 minutes long.
https://investor.immunogen.com/events/event-details/canaccord-genuity-43rd-annual-growth-conference
In our sample size of 13, it looks like everyone is getting different results. There’s no rhyme or reason as to when it wears off on each person.
There are also significant headaches for a few people that don’t get them on other tox. 3 of the staff actually refused the free repeat treatment and paid for another Tox.
Where in my line of thinking am I off base if you would care to comment? TIA
I just get the feeling the investment firms playing with this stock and sending the PPS in the opposite direction the small investors think/expect it “should” go.
I'm inclined to think CD approval is mostly baked into the price. Anyone disagree?
Do you think covid is over or it is just because of the cycle?
Avir is a bad example, but PFE, GILD, Shionogi, etc. all have covid antivirals in development so clearly there is perceived need and path forward.
Shionogi's phase 3 in Asia that was successful read out last year in a seropositive population too, albeit largely nucleocapsid negative (but seropositive to spike bc of vaccination). Luly mentioned that this japanese poopulation was like 10% nucleocapsid positive and 90% seropositive overall
I'm not looking to defend the report since I disagree with conclusions
Enanta downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan 06:25
ENTA
JPMorgan downgraded Enanta to Underweight from Neutral with a $14 price target. The analyst sees an "undifferentiated" efficacy profile for EDP-235 post the Phase 2 SPRINT readout, and with pivotal development for the asset subject to partnership, a challenging path ahead for the candidate in COVID-19. Moreover, independent of partnership, there are several hurdles to both successful trial execution and detection of clinical benefit with a direct antiviral in a post-COVID exposed setting, with a commercial launch likely a 2027 or beyond event,
The bull case is $78 and the bear case is $2 (assumes no therapeutic revenue).
The 3 arms of the "recover-vital" portion of the NIH trial are testing a 25 day regimen of paxlovid, a 15 day regimen with 10 days ritonavir, vs ritonavir plus placebo for 25 days
I have no idea why the 15 day course only has 10 days of booster. Seems like that could be a setup for paxlovid resistance if someone on this regimen contracts covid along the way while being given a subtherapeutic dose. Even the 25 day arm could get infection since the drug failed to prevent transmission in household contacts I guess, but I don't understand giving the virus exposure to low dose of the active agent - i mean that is how resistance is bred in a lab I thought?
AVIR modifies phase-3 protocol for COVID antiviral, bemnifosbuvir—(f/k/a AT-527):
https://ir.ateapharma.com/news-releases/news-release-details/atea-pharmaceuticals-reports-second-quarter-2023-financial
In November- in 3 months- I will have owned Enanta stock for 10 years.
In November- in 3 months- I will have owned Enanta stock for 10 years. It has always been a roller coaster. I think it's fair to say that it is a stock that sometimes gets abused in run ups and shorting. It's just a good vehicle for both.
I hope that a partnership is forthcoming, but I'm prepared to wait. My faith isn't badly shaken.
There are those that would tell you the company is right where it should be at this stage, but the market has clearly spoken. It's going to be a much longer, and much more expensive slog than I ever realized. To me 2nd quarter #'s were key, and it's obvious to me excitement in marketplace is lacking.
One thing I had not appreciated is how word-of-mouth and patient specific treatment practice is. The combination, in off-label particularly, would almost certainly slow uptake, particularly switching. Eg in the post below the md notes it took 5 runs to get dosing right in his CD patient.
dewophile, randychub and dennboy66,
Thanks for the information and advice. I always wondered how after hours trading was done. I can check it out just to see but I have no plans to do so, yet!
Great post willyw.
I was assuming that if there was an agreement it would be announced at the presentation. At market close I saw that there wasn't. I knew the stock would drop. That's the market talking.
Theres original antigen sin. Variant boosters really dun offer additional protection. Bivalent didn’t offer much better protection than the Wuhan.
Added at 17
The Q2 RVNC earnings report.
- Q2 total revenue of $58.1 million, a YoY increase of 104.9%.
- Q2 RHA® Collection revenue of $31.8 million, a YoY increase of 24.7%.
- Q2 DAXXIFY® revenue of $22.6 million, a QoQ increase of 47.1%.
- Bolstered financial position with $100 million net proceeds from ATM program and $50 million in notes available to be issued through Athyrium Capital on or before August 31, 2023.
- PDUFA date of August 19, 2023 for DAXXIFY® for the treatment of cervical dystonia.
Hey rock mountain, you hit the nail on the head.
Looking at Q4 22 and Q1 23 numbers, I expect max M 40 for RHA and M 22 for Daxxi for Q2 23. So if Q2 sales exceed M 65, I would be very happy.
- Q2 total revenue of $58.1 million, a YoY increase of 104.9%.
- Q2 RHA® Collection revenue of $31.8 million, a YoY increase of 24.7%.
- Q2 DAXXIFY® revenue of $22.6 million, a QoQ increase of 47.1%.
- Bolstered financial position with $100 million net proceeds from ATM program and $50 million in notes available to be issued through Athyrium Capital on or before August 31, 2023.
- PDUFA date of August 19, 2023 for DAXXIFY® for the treatment of cervical dystonia.
Anyone who thinks they can enter a chat area and effect the price of any security one iota is just delusional.
The new boosters (based off XBB.1.5) should have decent efficacy against Eris (at least vs severe disease), because there are only 2 new mutations in Eris vs this variant. However the new boosters now apparently won't be available until October. The current (bivalent) iteration of the booster, based on the BA.5 variant, has far less homology w Eris, with a whopping 15 new mutations in Eris vs BA.5.
This info is from Eric Topol's twitter account:
Eris is one of several closely-related Omicron subvariants that have been competing for dominance in recent months. All of these variants are descendants of the XBB strain, which is the target of this fall's COVID shots.
Ed, you need to back away as you are getting too emotional.
The analyst downgrades aren't surprising but they really don't matter. ENTA has stated all along that they will not put EDP-235 into phase 3 trials on their own forward alone, but rather they will partner. The analyst downgrades mention it as if it is a new development that means ENTA has no faith in EDP-235. It is laughable.
If you notice, analysts don't talk about the SPRINT data which showed very good efficacy by EDP-235, better than Paxlovid in the low risk patient population.
ABBV is clearly interested in Covid anti-virals as they just put one into a phase 1 trial. Unlike Jake, ABBV feels there is need for more Covid anti-virals and know such drugs will require phase 3 trials down the road. In my view ABBV remains a good candidate for a partnership for EDP-235.
Paxlovid requires a drug pump inhibitor and that is a real negative in high risk patients as they are usually taking one or more other drugs. The high number of pills per day (~30) is also a negative for Paxlovid. EDP-235 showed superior efficacy as compared to Paxlovid as EDP-235 showed a statistically significant reduction in symptoms its phase 2 trial in healthy low risk patients whereas Paxlovid failed to do so.
Which company do you think would be the partner for SPRINT? Was there any discussion on it? I mean, I could not find it yet.
And what is the most important factor to substitute Paxlovid when it is approved? I guess it would be the absence of ritonavir. Do you agree with this?
By the looks of the data, it doesn't show strong potency compared to Paxlovid.
Assets get mispriced all the time. In the long run Jay will be proven right and Jake will be proven wrong. I also said that I believe there is a gulf between what Jay knows the EDP-235 (and access to their follow-on compound) is worth, vs what the market and less informed participants like Jake think it's worth. Jay is not going to screw-over ENTA shareholders by accepting a lowball price.
Nobody knows nothing or cares to speculate, for fear of being wrong. This board can be summed up as the following:
Only a fool would make predictions—especially about the future :)
I am more disappointed by the closure of the EUA route for EDP-235 as a patient than an investor.