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Be_Real, you have to understand that weapons deals, even non-lethal weapons deals are much more complicated than auto parts or apparel. There is a structure to the way one must do business. These things tend to have regulatory issues that most other products don't have. In other words, things take time.
This is the first in what will hopefully be a group of key distributors around the world. A small company like Lamperd cannot be effective attempting to interest and then negotiate with hundreds of potential clients. So they use distributors who have existing relationships and existing sales reps.
The next step is to educate them concerning the Lamperd product line and product specs. Then they can go out and hopefully be effective sales representatives for Lamperd and the distributor.
The whole point is that there is a natural order to growing a company. Sometimes you get lucky and a customer seeks out Lamperd and a direct deal gets done. But those are exceptions. Most small companies work through distributors. Gokser, with it military and non-military customer base and its manufacturing capabilities, looks like a great partner. Very promising. Very exciting.
No disrespect taken, but...
I have made my intentions to buy back in at a lower price very clear to anyone who has spent any time on this board. I have also made my opinion of the company's management very clear. I see no reason to have to qualify everything I post to make someone's life easier for those who are too lazy or ignorant to do a few minutes worth of research.
But the bottom line is that I have been pretty accurate in my expectations. I do not set the market anymore than the Pollyanna prognostications from those who still think this should sell for $4/share. Perhaps they should all be asked to qualify their postings that they have been calling for $4/share for 6 consecutive years and been wrong every day of all 6 years (that's only 2,200 consecutive days give or take a leap day or two.)
My profit motive has not affected my ability to understand this company and where it is going. As for the short term, think lower. Sam hasn't put out a PR other than his quarterly results and the every 15 to 18 months acquisition of some small company in a very long time. That is unlikely to change and without pumping, this is dumping.
Penny stocks who don't promote trend downwards. It's a simple truth. Earnings are not sufficient to drive interest and few penny stocks pay a dividend. It is just not reasonable to expect anything but continued declines, at least through the next quarterly release. That doesn't guarantee a decline, but it does seem to indicate that the path of least resistance is down.
A penny here and a penny there and before you know it, this is at 66 to 68 cents. I am still not convinced that there isn't a large seller out there. This is a strange week given the holiday in the middle of the week and the half day on Tuesday. Not a good week to try and dump a bunch of shares in a thinly traded stock. So it is unclear if the trend will accelerate.
I am not nearly as pessimistic. I would give the company the benefit of the doubt on this one. I put the chances of a slow Q2 at 10% or less. I would be genuinely surprised.
If I am correct about the shares being sold, and we will have to see what happens in the coming hours and days, then I do see this drifting lower. Without promotion, penny stocks trend to zero. This one will be no exception. Earnings don't matter. I am aware of a pink sheet company selling at about 7% of sales. They are profitable but no one cares because the management has decided the company doesn't need to be promoted. In the penny world, no promotion means slow death. Then again, that may just be the plan.
If my estimate of how many shares there are to be sold is close, this situation will be going on through next summer. IVFH could buy the shares and I suspect they will buy some but not all. They need to get the new acquisition on track and then they need to continue to make similar acquisitions. This is the strategy that makes sense for their business. But it takes capital which means they can't be buying back all those shares.
I would be very surprised if Q2 shows the low growth that Q1 showed. Q2 weather was generally good. But since the company does almost no promotion, I'm not sure that anyone will care if the numbers show normal growth. If the Q2 numbers are weak after adjusting for the new acquisition, then there is a fundamental problem. I do not expect to see this and would be surprised if it happened.
It's the first trading day of the month. Last month, IVFH did more than 250,000 shares on this day. So far, just 28K, but notice how the bid has gapped lower and dried up.
As predicted, the slow liquidation is on. Sam can either buy them back or let the stock drift downward. I suspect he will do a bit of both. I expect a 5 handle on the price before this is over.
It would not surprise me to find out that Innovative's business is highly concentrated in the Northeast and west back to Chicago. Other than California, it is probably the wealthiest large market area in the country.
The point is the weather in Q1 was simply horrible. There are only 13 weeks in a quarter. If weather was responsible for even 9 days worth of excess sub par business over the quarter, that is 10% of the sales. Actually, these places expect bad weather in Q1. Let's assume they expect to lose 5 days worth of business due to bad weather. We starts with 13 x 7 or 91 days in the quarter. A normal Q1 contains 91 - 5 sales days or 86 days.
If this year's Q1 had 14 lost days, that is 77 days vs. 86 days. That means sales would come in at 77/86 or 90% of expected. If the company was growing at 10% and our weather assessment is close, then achieving a flat or 1% growth rate is actually not bad.
There are plenty of other reasons to be wary of this company. But on this score, I think Q1 is going to be a non-issue.
This is the exposure that the company needs to create sales. The information indicates that representatives from 46 organizations will be attending. If Lamperd Less Lethal can establish relationships with even a half dozen of these attendees, the company prospects would change almost instantly.
These things take a long time to set up. For a small company like Lamperd to travel halfway around the world to present and man a large booth is a major effort. They have crates to ship, people to coach, and presentations to write and practice. I am hopeful that this will put the company on a path towards sales and profits. North American sales are important, but the world is full of dangerous people. There is a need for these products worldwide. Great to see the company making this happen.
Agreed, CHLuke. It was an amateur move that brought back junior high memories. But given some of the poor decisions that have been made in the last few years, it should not be all that surprising. Makes you wonder what function the Board really performs beyond cheering section. Think they have IVFH pom-poms and sweaters? (Now try to get that thought out of your mind!)
Your statement about the short tenured Board director is a bit startling. Let's assume you and I ran a company and that we were both at least half wits. We wanted to establish a Board of Directors. Would you suggest that we just find 5 people who have done something well in their lives and hand them a contract? I suppose we could do that, but competency at one thing does not necessarily imply that it will prove valuable in helping our business.
Maybe we could decide what the big issues are that we think our company might face in the coming 3 to 5 years. We could engage our prospective Board members on their opinions concerning these areas, their experience, and their biases in dealing with these topics. In short, we could show some competency and do our jobs in finding people who we think we can work with and bring experience to the table.
Now obviously, no one bats 1.000. People make mistakes. But grown-ups do not institute policies that if we don't like you anymore, we can terminate your membership in the club simply because we want to get rid of you. That kind of behavior is appropriate maybe through middle school. Apparently, either this company's Board is made up of 7th graders, or these people are heavily into group think. Heretics are not welcome. There will be no independent thought. You will do as you are told or you will be banished.
I can buy Q1 was weather related. The one quarter downturn is not a concern. The children running the board are the true concern.
We are not talking bankruptcy. We are talking about theft. I had one company where the CEO bought 100% of the productive assets with his 50% of the outstanding stock and left the company with non-productive assets. No one cared at all. The FBI told me if you sue him in civil court and win, then we'll take a look at it. I told them if I want to spend $100,000 in civil court on lawyers to sue for my $5,000 investment why would I give the FBI an opportunity to fine or jail this guy such that he can't pay me my $5,000? I would have to be twice a moron.
I had a CEO claim his patents were worth millions. Even if his product didn't sell (it didn't), the patents were worth a bundle. He repeated that right up until the day he sold the patents for $30,000 and then sold the shell for peanuts while retaining a $250,000 consulting agreement for himself. Again, attorney general - sue him in civil court. SEC - send us a letter. We may investigate or we may not. We'll never tell you yes or no. If we fine him, it will be a matter of public record. If we throw your complain in the trash 3 seconds after you file it, you'll never know. You are 100% on your own.
I have invested enough money in penny stocks to know that the management holds all the cards. I am here because I have been here for years, I understand this business and the opportunities that have been missed in years past. I may invest when things get too low to resist. But I will never fall in love with a company like this. And I do not like the signals that shareholders have been receiving for the last few years.
Here's the deal. I tried, several times, to communicate with the management of this company. Each time, I was met with silence. I don't know that anyone could have salvaged Fresh Diet. No let me rephrase that. When IVFH purchased Fresh Diet, I believe it would have cost more to salvage it than it would have to start the company from ground zero. But I had a plan that had a 1 in a 100, maybe 1 in 500 chance of working. IVFH's plan had a zero percent chance of working.
Call and letters. Not a peep from these arrogant SOB's. And yes, I some experience in this field. So that's my story. I was here before Fresh Diet and now I am here after it. I have seen management's literally steal companies from shareholders in the penny stock world. It is actually much easier to do than you might imagine. All it takes is a lawyer and control of the Board.
As a shareholder, you have only yourself to count on when it happens. Your attorney general will not help. The SEC will not help. The FBI will not help FINRA will not help. No lawyer will take it as a class action suit - try it. They just hang up on you. I have been there before. On multiple occasions. It's a risk in the penny world. It starts with a self entitled management team that owns the Board and wants nothing to do with the minority shareholders they intend to fleece. Now I am not suggesting that this company management fits that bill, but what more do they need to do to show you that maybe they could and might do this to you too?
One can only assume that you are new to micro cap investing. There is a reason this stock sells in the single digit multiple range when every POS on the market sells for 20+ P/E. It has nothing to do with earnings. It has everything to do with expectations of how much of that coming prosperity will trickle down to shareholders.
When a company has a management that shareholders believes if aligned with shareholder interests, then good things happen for shareholders when good things happen for the company. When this link is not there, good finance results are muted in how they translate to shareholders.
So who is responsible for seeing to it that management and the minority shareholders are aligned? The Board. The same Board that voted just months ago to have the right to terminate a Board member if he failed to bring doughnuts when it was his turn or coughed too much or didn't follow the leader. That is why this stock sells for peanuts and that is why you would want to buy the entire company for $2/share but you can't because someone else already controls it. I suppose you could vote your shares to force changes but when was the last time you had an opportunity to vote your shares?
Actually, you asked for the diatribe or you would not have posted anything. But it's all good. Were it not for this exchange, chances are good that there would be no postings on the board this week.
This is what Sam wants. Inactivity works in his favor. I believe he has a plan that he is executing. As this drifts down and enthusiasm for the stock continues to wane, his ability to execute his plan is enhanced.
So let's get this straight. You don't know if the Fresh Diet seller has authorization to dump shares. You don't know how many shares he has. You assume that the company will buy them, but you don't know. And I am being speculative?
Now let's look at some facts. On June 1, the first day of the month following the resolved lawsuits, trading was very heavy. You have no idea why. I have a theory. You are assuming Sam will buy these shares back. If those shares were sold on June 1, then if Sam bought them, he did so on the open market. The stock price has been falling for many weeks. Certainly, the last quarterly report was not favorable. Maybe Sam addressed this in the conference call. Just kidding.
So you choose to look at the glass as half full. Have at it. I see the half empty glass as having rather murky looking water. I wonder who drank the other half?
Sorry - I'm not leaving. Maybe you can find some alternative facts to make this all look happy and investment worthy. Me? I'm waiting for another dime or so in decline. Then I too will begin to rely on hopes and dreams and unicorns to make this worth a buck again.
I had not even looked at the volume when I wrote the comment. I just saw the price. If I owned the stock, and as you know I don't at this time, I would keep my eyes open for big volume in early July. That will confirm my suspicions. In that case, one might want to stand to the side and watch the fun. This will eventually become grossly undervalued.
Seems like a decision driven by the stock price and not the underpinnings of the technology. Either you believe the story as it evolves or you don't. Personally, I recognize this as a 5:1 upside potential with maybe a 40% to 50% probability of success. In short, those are odds worth taking. If the good news continues, and this goes to 60% probability of success, one would expect the stock price to now reflect a 4:1, maybe 7:2, upside. I like the odds and I'm staying with the program.
No one is shorting this. These are longs throwing in the towel. Give it time. I think you will see high 60's. Then, as long as the volume is low, it may be time to nibble. Still don't know what is happening with Fresh Diet shares. That remains the 800 lb. gorilla. If he has access to sell into the market, all bets are off.
Watch the volume - not the price. Big volume on the 1st of the month tells me someone has the green light to sell. That will not end well if he has as many shares as I think he has.
It's one of my favorite pieces of prose. When I'm feeling down, when I've written something that wasn't exactly warmly received, I pull out this article, grab a cigar, pour a brandy, and savor Mr. Smith's words of wisdom. I am instantly imbued with a feeling that as bad as I screwed up, at least I didn't write this gem.
My favorite line is "The Fresh Diet was just stolen by IVFH". Yeah. Like the thief who just stole the box of cat pooh I left on my doorstep for the thief who has been stealing my Amazon packages. I can read this every week of the year. It just gets better with age.
It looks as though they are averaging down. Denver Smith is the guy who wrote this gem. https://seekingalpha.com/article/2546385-innovative-food-holdings-undervalued-gem-in-a-red-hot-sector
Still a classic and always worth a read.
Actually, I'm concerned he is NOT going to buy anyone out. He is going to continue to run this company as if he owned it. You, and the other shareholders, are guests who paid to watch him and the the other who control this company feast at the table you paid for.
In other words, they control the vote. You get no say. They can increase their pay and share allotments. You get no say. They can invest in whatever they want to invest in. You get no say. They can never pay a dividend from now until the end of time. Again, you get no say. They can continue to run the Board as if it was a weekly poker group. Cigars for the boys, but none for the shareholders.
That's what concentration will do for you. Every percent less outstanding just concentrates their already considerable ownership even more. Tell me, when was the last time you voted on the Board of Directors? I have read every SEC filing. Maybe I missed it, but I don't remember seeing a proxy statement. When did I miss it?
I went back through the last 5 years of SEC filings for IVFH. There are no 13D or 13G filings for any of the FD people. I have to assume they did not need to file. I am certain at least two received more than 5% of IVFH stock. When the dissident FD shareholder sued IVFH, and they bought his shares back, they announced that he owned less than 24% of FD. 24% x 10 million shares = 2.4 million shares is more than 5%. Yet no filing, so I assume they were unnecessary.
And yes, I assume the company will either buy some of those shares, or force him to sell over 12 to 16 quarters. Neither alternative is positive for shareholders IMO, despite what you or others may believe. The last thing this company needs is more concentrated ownership.
You bring up a good point about the filings, but I do not believe they are always necessary. Then again, I am not an attorney and I could be totally wrong about this.
When IVFH acquired FD, they did a share exchange. I do not remember seeing any 13D's filed. Maybe I just missed them. It would be interesting to check. But until they start selling the shares, I am not aware that anyone needs to file.
Regardless, I think 1 million shares dumped on the market would do a lot more damage than you estimate. Now realistically, no agreement is going to allow someone to do something that reckless. If the shares are to be unrestricted, it only makes sense that there will be limits on what can be sold. Even still, this stock is under pressure. A prolonged period of additional float will not improve the situation. Just the prospect, I believe, will push this down another dime. If all heck hasn't broken loose by then, I think this stock will be a screaming buy, despite my differences with management.
Don't know where you came up with 1.7 million. My guess is considerably higher.
Hard to say precisely. IVFH paid 10 million shares valued at $14 million to buy the company. You may remember how one of the geniuses that writes for Simply Alpha called it a steal. The question is how much of the company did he own when Sam bought it.
I have a guess but it is strictly a guess. I can only tell you that I believe it is measured in millions of shares, not hundreds of thousands. What I cannot know is the first digit on that amount. I do not remember seeing share detail when IVFH bought FD. I only remember the price and that bit of classic wisdom from the SA author.
Perhaps we can have the 'guess the shares the former FD owner can dump on the market' contest? Of course if his shares are still restricted, he can't dump anything. Hard to imagine one would settle a lawsuit and not get the right to sell millions of shares at a minimum.
The chef to chef thing is nice touch for marketing purposes, but I'm not convinced it is important. If you train a sales person and provide him/her with enough detail about the product, I could eventually train Siri to do the sales job.
As for the YoY results, we have seen slowdowns in this business before. They were temporary. Whether they will be this time in unclear and it is a reason for concern. I do not believe the domestic economy is going to tank in the next 12 months. If the economy grows, then IVFH's business should grow along with it. It may not grow 12-20% annually as it has in the past. But I would not expect flat.
As long as the company continues to grow, whether organically or via acquisition, overhead costs per unit sold should decline. If they don't then we have a serious management problem. Not that I would expect this Board is capable of either monitoring this situation or fixing it if it were to happen. I'm just not concerned until I see another lousy quarter. Stuff happens in small companies. It doesn't take much to throw off a quarter here or there.
At 79 cents, I think we are approaching buy time. I'm a buyer in the high 60's. If the former FD owner is selling shares, forget you ever saw me. This will be 50 cents before the Miami Dolphins have lost their 5th game of the season.
Grease - you are making the very same mistake that Sam made when he bought FD. He assumed they were in the food business. They were not. They were in the lifestyle marketing business, a business neither Sam nor almost anyone at FD knew much about. They just happened to sell food. That's why the company was destined for fail from the start.
As for food brokerage, it is a business of two tales. If I take 3 food brokerage companies and put them under one corporate umbrella, I can make money in multiple ways. Let's assume one works on a chef to chef basis (B2B). Another works on a B2C basis, and a third works maybe on an institutional sales basis. The company can make money selling through any or all three channels. I would hope that someone selling in these core business channels has figured out how to be profitable.
Now our little business buys something like iGourmet. It sells something to someone, and loses money doing it, but it doesn't matter. What matters is that they have customers and warehouse space. So we take the three other business lines and we set them up in the new warehouse space selling to the customer base we just acquired. Additionally, we now have a base of operations from which to distribute product from to others. Lower transport costs. Faster delivery.
In short, it doesn't matter what iGourmet does or did. As long as their facility can hold more product and the customer base is compatible with the existing customer base, it can be made to work. The only trick is properly pricing the business when you buy it. I trust Sam to price something, even if I do not trust him to do a proper business evaluation. When it came to FD, I believe he completely misunderstood what he was buying. When it comes to any other food broker, it really doesn't matter as long as the facility and customer base are good.
Grease, far be it that I am the voice of optimism on this stock, but I believe you have seriously underestimated management's competency in running a food brokerage business. At worst, iGourmet should be a drag on earnings in Q2 and Q3 of this year. This business always does best in Q4. Even if IVFH management does virtually nothing, I have to believe that iGourmet will contribute to earnings in Q4/2018.
As much as I may not like the way Sam treats his shareholders and the fiasco that was FD, these guys know how to run a food brokerage business. They will get iGourmet fixed in short order. It would not surprise me if iGourmet adds to the bottom line in Q3. This isn't rocket science. This is warehouse management and B2B sales.
Barring a collapse of the economy (always a possibility, however remote, given the people running the country), I expect IVFH is $1.20 to 1.35 per share by year end. The one major caveat is whether the former owner of FD can now sell shares. If he can, all bets are off. Go home and tune back in about 2 years from now.
Cool Hand Luke - (a favorite movie, BTW)
Providing company management doesn't do anything stupid between now and the end of 2019, you should do just fine. I think you are a bit optimistic, but not so much as to make a big difference. I would come in 10% to 20% less than you do, especially in 2018. But in the end, it's the P/E that matters, not the earnings.
I seriously doubt management will get adventurous in the next six months. They will wait until they are comfortable the iGourmet is well on the way to success. And I see that as a near certainty. What comes after that is the potential concern. But I suspect this group has learned to stick with food brokerage.
If they ran this company for the benefit of shareholders, this company would finish 2018 at $1.60-$2.00. But they don't, so I think you will be lucky to see $1.25 - $1.40. That is, depending upon what came out of the settlement with the former owner of the Fresh Diet. I have a feeling that will be the gift that keeps on giving. No information on this. I just know the players.
Thanks for the tip on nmxs. I'm not a big fan of companies in that business. Unless you know something the rest of us can't see. When a company files to stop future filings, I don't take that as a good sign.
BTW - I do not expect that will happen here. I don't see that in the plan. It might also force one of the small institutional investors to sell out. No use rocking the ship. If you run this company, everything is working as expected. Of course, if you are a minority shareholder, you may have a different opinion.
I stand corrected. Only managements that care about their shareholders and their share price have conference calls. I confused them will someone else.
Anyone know what time the Q1 conference call is scheduled for?
Thank you jedijazz. That press release is exactly what we need. We should begin seeing results with the Q2 report.
I think it should be clear that there is a long learning curve when it comes to selling these kinds of products. The tragic school shootings may have accelerated the process, but this in not just about product design and manufacturing. Schools and other institutions need to consider a wide range of concerns before they decide upon a strategy to protect themselves and those entrusted to their care. It's not something that happens overnight as a result of an incident, no matter how serious it may have been.
In a word, it's called traction. And it looks like it has begun. We still need to see some serious sales in the school segment, but I have to believe that day will come soon. Anyone who has worked with a school district will understand that they do not make decisions quickly and they tend to have a herd mentality. The first few will be game changers. Then it gets easier.
Bravo and Go LLLI
You clearly have not done your homework on my posts, so feel free to continue your uninformed diatribe. Those who have followed my posts recognize what I know about this company. I said many months ago that without FD, this company would be worth much more than 50 cents. I said is was worth 90 cents. I have been vindicated time and time again.
I congratulate you for getting out while the getting was good. Most investors did not make that decision. They are now lamenting the fact that the company does not sell for $2/share. You were smart enough to recognize what is becoming increasing apparent about how this company is being run. Pity others did not follow your lead and sell when the stock was overpriced.
Yeah, you're right. That Dickmo guy was so wrong as this stock doubled. Except that he told you more than a year ago when the stock was in the 70 cent range that it was worth 90 cents. And here we are, a year later. At 95 cents.
And that Dickmo guy really knew nothing about how bad an investment Fresh Diet was. Except he did. Oh well, so much easier to troll than to do your homework.
Now I'm telling you that if you are disappointed now as an investor, wait until next year. Instead of a 6.6 PE, you may be looking at a 5.8 PE. The company is doing fine. It makes money and will continue to make money. Whether you, and all the other shareholders, will benefit from those profits remains to be seen.
Oh, and pass this along to Mermelstein so he can be educated also. I know he has me on 'iggy' because I know nothing.
I don't know that any one event may have convinced company management to treat this as a public company. In my mind, it has been a series of baby steps that has led the management to treat the company as if they were private. Whether they will take the final step and just pay off the non-aligned shareholders, I would be surprised if they do. Frankly, it's unnecessary.
As a minority shareholder, you have no rights that you don't enforce with a lawyer. The SEC won't lift a finger to help you. Your state AG is highly unlikely to intervene in a civil matter that you have not litigated. Effectively, company management has removed the minority shareholders' access to information one at a time with almost no push back. The last guy who may have tried was removed from the Board based on a vote worthy of a junior high math club. If half of the board doesn't like you, then you're off. Seriously?
As a shareholder, you are unlikely to ever see a dividend, From what I can tell you don't get a vote, you don't have any opportunity to ask questions of management, you get no public statements beyond an 8-K now and then. In effect, this is a private company that still files. I'm guessing that will continue for a while as they slowly acquire additional shares.
You do that. I don't believe you have been here since 50 cents. I've been here since DiMaggio was running this POS. So calm yourself, learn to respect your elders, and just maybe you'll learn something.
It's so sad that you know none of the history of this stock and the company. Surely you will be doomed to repeat the sins of the past.
I was unaware that owning this POS was a requirement to post. Is it somewhere in the bylaws that I missed? And I should assume that you know more about the company than I do because you are now losing money on this POS? I'm not making any money on this company. You, on the other hand, are losing money. So just who know more about where this is going?
Grease - I don't think you understand. Management has absolutely zero incentive to promote the stock. They have been running this as a private company for quite a while. You just haven't noticed. Well now that the stock has dropped in price, now you start to notice.
Nothing you can do or say can stop management from doing whatever they want to do. Nobody has answered this question yet, so I'll ask it again. When was the last time any long time holder remembers voting for the Board or auditors for this company? My guess is it was several years ago.
What does this tell you? Management has enough votes to make their will a foregone conclusion. That makes it possible to run this as a privately held company with a tracking stock. And that's exactly what they have done. If the stock goes to 80 cents, it will only help them to acquire shares faster. If it goes back to $1.10, it will slow them down a touch, but it doesn't matter. Heads they win, tails you lose.
Just my opinion, but there is no reason to be a minority shareholder in a company run for management's benefit and not yours.
You are a shareholder. Did you vote for the board in the last 12 months?