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Yeah, Bodry is a crook and Heddle is a crook and those are our only choices.... Our ONLY choices? Really?
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!
How about choice #3? Unmentioned choice #3, LOL.
Heddle as an opportunistic, REAL businessman who is at the helm now because he put real money into the business and is intending to steer things in the future by building a real business.
Thats it. Choice number 3.... UNMENTIONED choice #3, LOL.
He seized control. He seized an opportunity. He has a track record. He is not proven to be anything other than a hard nosed, steel worker/dock worker type who runs real businesses. Not scams.
My opinion until the deals he cuts prove to be crappy deals. Like I first said today: scrutinize the deals he gets involved in. That will be the tell.
Imperial Whazoo
Bordy lacked business experience and his opinion of his vast intellect led him to overly value his ability to deliver.
On top of that, he had never actually built anything in way of a publicly traded company. Heddle is not the inexperienced guy trumpeting his brainiac powers. He builds big metal things and has dockyard steelworkers as his employees. He's got to be a tad hard-nosed to run a company consisting of welders, jobbers, dock-workers, and shippers. And he's obviously already a real businessman, not a dreamer. I mean, Bordy is the inventor type. He DID invent the thing, after all. And he DID get it the permitting & licensing required of it. But as is often the case, the inventor type is dispositionally ill equipped to take the next steps. Other types of people have to be allowed to step in if an inventor's brilliant idea is ever going to make it off the launch-pad. Simple fact of life.
If you look at what Bordy did in making the bad RKT deal, he did the following: He agreed to build machines that could handle dirty plastic dug up from RKT's landfills. Big promise to land RKT by addressing a need they had. But he had no existing machine in place on customer sites, and the pre-melt was little more thatn a dream on the back of a napkin. The proposed technology to pre-melt plastic so that dirty land-filled plastic could be used was uninvented at the time the deal was cut.
Get that in your mind: he agreed to a lucrative PROMISE that allowed him to get filthy rich if he figured out a technical problem on a machine that had not been sold elsewhere and he had to raise the money to both run the company AND invent the technology to pre-melt the dirty plastic.
Events of life expose people's flaws, and when it came to making the RKT deal, it exposed the fact, IMHO, that Bordy lived in an imaginary land where he could dream big dreams and invent things and get rich and everyone could live happily ever after.... all because he is so smart. Thats not the real world of a publicly traded company.
Problem was that he was no longer running a private company with only himself to answer to. He was in charge of a PUBLICLY TRADED entity. So, because of his own personal shortcomings, he proved brilliant enough to invent the technology, but not brilliant enough to make good business deals. He failed to make a deal that was reasonable for a publicly traded company.
Had he been running a private company, he could have made any kind of lala land deal he wanted, even one where he had to invent a new pre-melt technology before he could raise the money to build the machines to place on RKT sites.
Bad idea, IMHO, whether running a public or a private company, but especially bad when it comes to being the future of a publicly traded company.
IMHO, Heddle sank money into this company as a REAL businessman who counts the costs of innovation and development and selling and support PRIOR to entering into a fray.
Why even ask why Bordy did it. He did it because his ego led him rather than common sense. I figure that, if Heddle were that type of man, he'd not be running the largest and most successful shipyard on the Great Lakes.
Thats my take.
Imperial Whazoo
What happened to the RKT deal? Let me explain it to the uninitiated, LOL.
That deal was structured to require JBII/PTOI to fund everything. Lets watch the specifics of what a Heddle run company agrees to.... lets scrutinize the specifics of any upcoming deal or deals. If they are no better in terms of being favorable to the buyer (as was the case with the RKT deal), then we can all agree that the result will be terrible for PTOI, one more time. But if its NOT a deal that is structured in an anti-PTOI manner, there is a basis for expecting a better outcome.
This guy Heddle is at the helm now. And to judge by everything anyone can unearth about Heddle, he's a smart businessman and he knows how to build steel things (like huge metal specialty industrial tanks, for example). Bordy, it so appears , knew more about building "steal" things than building things out of STEEL.... if you catch my drift, LOL. Heddle runs a shipyard, and he knows a thing or two about welding and building and so forth. I say its going to make a big difference for him to be at the helm here.
This is set up to be a different ballgame now. The courts are swatting aside the pesky flies of the Bordy lawsuits and Heddle is not selling tricky deals to outsiders in order to raise money to meet both his internal costs and the costs of a bad RKT deal. He's putting his own money into it... a whopping million just last quarter. To judge by the things happening, this thing is finally be in competent hands.
But, as I just said, scrutinize the deals as to their details. The RKT deal was a life raft to JBII that happened to be weighted down with costs that JBII needed to internally fund. I doubt anything like that will be coming out of a Heddle run shop.
Thats what I figure is in the offing. In any event, we will have to wait and see. I'll be watching to see if the deals are like RKT or whether they are better deals in terms of their details. Thats my take.
Imperial Whazoo
Thats pretty much been my point of view.
I mean, some guy has PMed me to assert that there is no way that this ownership group will sell out, but IMHO, if somebody throws a wad and a half of money at somebody, they just might decide to retire to Bermuda or the south of France. Crazier things have happened, you know.
Anyway, it doesn't matter in the short term because this puppy is going to have stellar news to PR as of 12/30/14. And the lack of world leadership in this Ebola situation has set hazmat suit mfg companies like APT up to do well.
All three of the smalls I know of are trading pretty much the same. My charting package lets me overlay a chart with another and I've overlain the three to compare them. These three are pretty darn close to each other in terms of the way they are moving.
My theory in picking one over the others was to pick the one that was the lowest priced, the idea being that, with a lower price, the percentage gain on any explosive up move has the best chance of being the best. So, I picked APT. Then, when I did my DD it's fundamentals, I saw the lack of debt, the excess capacity, and so on and I realized how sweet the setup could be if there is a perfect storm.
If my guess is right, then the explosion will travel upwards on all three hazmat suit companies in about the same pattern, but the lowest priced one will deliver the best percentage gain.
So I'm in APT.
And as an added bonus, there just might be a Honeywell or Kimberly or 3M stepping in to make these insiders instantly richer than they ever imagined.
Imperial Whazoo
Nice buys.
If you day trade, you just made your daily percentages. And look which way it is moving this afternoon.
It is not going to happen that a "taking of the company private" is going to happen at a speed that makes trading an upside breakout pointless. Even if they take it private, there is money to be made at these levels between now and whenever. I could care less whether there are owners and insiders. If I trade a chart like this one, I make money.
And to judge by your decisions today, it looks like you did too.
IW
Thanx WF. That makes sense and it would argue against a player stepping in to try to take over the company. Makes sense.
That said, it remains that the company is healthy as regards debt, its sales are up big time, it has manufacturing capacity ready, and the nations are going to be in a buying mode of all manufacturers of hazmat equipment.
Thanx
IW
No big deal. But bear in mind: its only an opinion.
That said, the thing I pointed out previously can be seen going on right now. There are big blocks bid a penny or so back from here.
Right now, there are 20K on AMEX & 9K on EDGX, both @ 2.64. These two keep "disappearing" from the Level 2 because thats the way Level 2 presents data. If there is 20K on AMEX right now, a guy can step in and offer to buy 100 at a penny more and the 20K "disappears". Its still there, but you only see an offer for 100 shares of APT at 2.65 from AMEX.
So, thats why you need to keep the level 2 up & open & ticking real time. When the 100 @ 2.65 gets bought, the highest on AMEX is 2.64, and it shows back up.
So, watch the activity and it tells you reality.
Now, here's another technique you can employ. Draw the channels & the flags snd wedges.
FLAGS/PENNANTS/WEDGES
Do the following:
1. Change your charts to 30 minute candles.
2. Go to your charting tools and connect the intraday highs of Nov 25th and Dec 10th with a line that extends both left & right
This line is a declining straight line. It is the top of a declining pennant/flag/wedge on a 30 minute chart of APT.
3. Now, on the same 30 minute chart, connect the lows of Nov 28 to the low of today. Thats a mostly flat bottom of the flag/wedge/pennant.
Now, display the chart in something like 120 minutes or a day.
What you have is a declining wedge/flag/pennant.
All trading since November 25th has oscillated netween the top & bottom lines. The top line is resistance. The bottom line is support.
Notice: this pattern IS SOON GOING TO COME TO THE POINT where the upper line (declining) and the lower line (flat/base) cross.
4. Go to any chart school web site and research whether a declining pennant/flag/wedge THAT HAS A FLAT LINE FOR ITS SUPPORT AND A DECLINING LINE FOR ITS RESISTANCE usually breaks out above the top line or below the bottom line?
The answer is that it almost almost breaks above the top DECLINING line as trading progresses ever closer to the point of the triangle.
What's going on? Let me explain what I see when I look at the Level 2 each day.
There is a buyer who understands that this company will report earnings soon. We have already seen interim reporting that sales are fabulous. Knock-out numbers have been pre-announced as the operative facts, so what will be reported once the quarter ends?
Big increases... across the board. Thats what is going to get reported
And remember, APT has a debt situation to die for, and manufacturing capacity already in existence. They can finance fulfillment of all the increased demand without borrowing, without bond issuance, without warrants, and without building new facilities.
Look at V@R and L@KE.... they have both raised money since the day Ebola cases started showing up in U.S. hospitals. Unlike APT, both of these publicly traded players in the hazmat world had less healthy capacity & financial positions, so they have had to reach out to raise money.
APT has a far better situation in these regards. Simple as that.
So, back to the level 2. At the moment I was typing this blog, there were 11,100 shares wanted (bid) at 2.64 thru AMEX. And 9,000 bid at 2.64 thru EDGX.
I watched it all morning, as I do every day, and what happened today was that somebody wanted large positions, but they placed their bid below the bid/ask. So, the brokers walked the price down to fill those orders.
Heres the deal. Sombody (or somebody) is doing this big block "make-an-offer-well-below-bid/ask" style of buying all day, every day. TICK TOCK. TICK TOCK.
Somebody with a long term view and a lot of money is offering to buy large blocks of shares at price points that are consistently below the current bid/ask levels.
So, while we close out the year, remember that there is a "somebody" (or somebodies) buying large chunks by employing the tactic of placing large buy orders a penny or two below ASK. When the price walks down to fill that guaranteed income stream, the buyer does it again.... and again..... and again.
And when that happens, there will be all the above factors come into play, PLUS the fact that prices ALWAYS EXPLODE when there is an SEC filing that reveals that somebody has accumulated a sizable position in a stock.
I noticed you having asked this same question several times.
I have a "guess", so let me spin the guess out for you. Mind you, its a pure guess, but I think it explains what we are watching happen.
Start here:
Nobody knows what is actually motivating buyers to buy at this pace. The reason they are doing it has to be logical because nobody would act like this with no reason governing their actions. It may not be known to the rest of us, but somebody (or somebodies) have reached some kind of triggering point and they are being driven to step in heavily at this time.
So, first, *FMI, the "other" company of the pair, is in debt hugely to GHDC. Go back & read the DD on them and its as clear as day that this is the situation. And fact is, it was this way by organizational intent from the day the two companies were set up.... ansd it is my opinion that the royalties were intended to be debts as intentional steps in the original plan. Never intended to be paid. They always were simply line items to be booked for a reserved use at some future point. Accordingly, they got voluntarily "graced".... agreed to be set aside for payment at some future point each time they were reported on. Every single year.
Second, *FMI gets some local yokel to do the grunt work of building things, but the local yokle doesn't get paid, so he sues.
The local yokel wins every step of the lawsuits. That, too, was part of the plan: *FMI is toasted time after time in court by having lost every stage of the lawsuits. And each year, the obligations to GHDC get set aside ("graced") for payment at some future time. In the present, however, *FMI is sitting ugly because they are lawsuit losers, who will be sold, as a matter of obligatory statute, by the county on the courthouse steps (to satisfy their debt to the local yokel, Earle).
Thus, lets do a run thru the way the cards play in the hands "playing cards" here.
The local yokel gets *FMI, (the Diamond Creek Mill itself/piles of mineral rich rock/the tunnel/the various clams/etcetera), for a mere pittance, and in so doing becomes the "owner".
OK, so what happens next?
Next, PQ, thru GHDC, collects on the obligastions on GHDC's books.
GHDC, who has huge $$$ owed it by *FMI, "collects" its past outstanding "debts", going back to the beginning, and the guy who thought he had picked up the assets for a mere pittance now has the thing he "seized" at the courthouse steps snatched out from under him.
So thats my theory on why GHDC is exploding in price right now. Somebody realized that GHDC was going to end up with all the marbles, even if the assets of *FMI get sold on the courthouse steps.
Hence, somebody swooped in and accumulated like there is no tomorrow.
Thats my guess.
I've often pondered why there was this deliberate organizational structure where a company owed GHDC inestimatable uncollected debts. Why would PQ have arranged things this way from day one of the establishment of the two companies?
Now it becomes clear. As an organizational structure, this arrangement (where obligations were repeatedly delayed in their scheduled payment) works fantastically if PQ intends, by this ownership device, to end up with the mill & the asset of the mountain & the piles and all that. For all intents and purposes, he has gotten his build-out without having to have actually paid the guy to do the work. They guy uses Idaho law to get his payment, but in the end, the senior obligations remain with the OTHER company PQ owns.
On the other company, the debt is satisfied on the books by the act of "collecting" on it on the courthouse steps. So the big, actual balance sheet debt item is wiped from *FMI's books. Next, is what is on the books owed to GHDC, and PQ callects on this obligation and, for all intents and purposes, ends up with a sparkling clean balance sheet.
Pretty crafty way to end up with all the marbles. Stiff a contractor bigtime, waste a lot of the guy's money & time in pointless lawsuits, loose the lawsuits, and let him "collect", only to swoop in and collect the remains due to the existance of all the massive, uncollected past obligations.
PQ succeeded in getting the work done and then used the asset on which the work was done to pay for the work itself.
So, why is GHDC running up? My thought is that somebody figured it out and has been buying the company with the smaller float, GHDC.
I'm not a player at this altitude of deceit, LOL, but now that I see how the plan is coming together, it begins to make sense. I'm plenty willing to let this set of events be a schooling for me for future reference. And I bet this is a fact, too: I bet that, having won the lawsuits, if the local yokel senses the trap & fails to act on his "victory", I bet its true that the balance sheet gets washed anyway. I'm sure there are some bigtime accountants & legal beagles out there who can point out where I'm wrong, (and I have no doubt that I'm proly wrong in a lot of the guessed details), but in general, my guess is that we are watching the hand play itself out.
So, thats my guess.
Hope that helps.
Imperial Whazoo
Yeah. Like I said yesterday. If you see another tricky deal.... a pipe or a flood of shares to a stinky pinky "funding" company (Right.... the only entity being funded in most stinky deals is the funder themselves....Duh!)....
Anyway, if we FINALLY see a deal that is NOT such a "deal", I gotta sit up straight and take notice.
Say it isn't so, LOL! A real chunk of change that is not a spoonfull of financing laced with the poison of deceit. Gotta read it through several times, looking for tell tale signs of trickery, LOL.
This cash deal looks like a real slug of hope... FINALLY!!
Real money.... $1 million buckaroos.... from the guy who has taken on the thankless task of implementing, and actually executing, a real business plan.
A real chunk of change. A chunk of change that is in the form of money (change) and MAYBE.... just maybe..... an even more ground shaking chunk of CHANGE in non-monetary "internals".
Until or unless they had money to put to work getting their technology site up again, I could not see how they would ever get a buyer to come to the table to buy one of their machines, and since their future rests entirely on selling their nachines, (IMHO), they had zero chance until money was gotten.
So, money has been gotten. Lets see if this Heddle guy has an actual plan. I, for one, will watch closely.
Go fihure, LOL!?!
Imperial Whazoo
I'm too jaundiced, LOL! Good news?!? Really? Looks like it is. A major infusion of cash. Heddle put 1 million into the company on 11/19. Secured promisory not & warrants that have 5 years to exercise. Sweet!
I have a lot of shears. Long dead shares. If they come back to life at the end of the year, I'll be one happy puppy.
Can not say anything about what is the plan, but a million is a million & it is sorely needed. Kind of made my day.
Well done, Heddle. You've just now (finally) put your money where your moith is.
Now... DO SOMETHING WITH WHAT YOU JUST INFUSED INTO THE COMPANY!
Build machines. Sell machines. Warm that cold building so the machinery soesn't freeze like it did last year.
Gotta love it though. He is an insider and this is real money, no tricky pipes or discounted share deals to shady stinky-pinky outfits, who instantly dump them. No diluting of the share base. Just good old hard cash for warrants that have plenty of time on them.
I like it.
Imperial Whazoo
Well, I'm usually trying to use Fib retracements to try to comprehend a chart's behavior and it works pretty well to explain the levels things retrace to but they fail miserably to explain an upmove. They are kinda after the event tools and they work if you are a short artist on big volume stocks.
APT is too thinly traded. So what I've begun to try is flag patterns and channel patterns and wedges.
Anyway, long story short, yesterday, the price here broke above the top line of a nice & clear declining flag pattern that I've drawn on 15 minute and 30 minute candles.(and some other periods that nobody but me uses). The usual thing with these patterns is that they need either volume at the break point or they need to stay above the greak point.... either one proves the break is not a head fake. So, it stayed above on close yesterday, even though it was low volume. So, it confirms the break of the top line of the flag by the heavy vol to the upside today. Thsts gratifying to me because my beginning to use these chart pattrns is too new to have me feeling comfortable.
That said, I think APT will go up from here if, and only if, it holds the retest of the breakout level. I think its going to sustain this move, but again, these patterns are pretty new to me so I'm a tad short on confidence.
Thats my read, from a chartists point of view.
Have a good day folks.
Imperial Whazoo
Well, stock broke upside but checks into them to see if there is news were unhelpful. The board here is also sorta dead. Anyone got any info to share?
IW
Marked, baby! LOL
If this thing does as I expect, it will go up from here. We'll see. It took out the lows to about $2.90 in the premarket today so I think it has done the work it needed to do on the downside. Not that it could not suffer more instances of it being taken down to attempt to take out the lows, but I think the low volumes tell us that it is not being forced down by people wanting to force price down and down and down some more.
Now I think it is going to hover for a while before climbing as it nears the end of year.
The PR about the monthly sales being so great is what I think each of this quarter's 3 months will show. Increased sales each month. So, with an expectation of the quarter being stellar, it should climb as the date of the next filing with the SEC nears.
Buy the rumor & sell the news, and the next thing to come is rumor, so it will show that it is being bought. On sales getting released next year, it will fall (sell the news). Thats what I figure we will see.
So, with no debt, a low float, a real demand based on Ebola, and governmental buying worldwide, this puppy will go up if the news of sales is as solid as I think it will be.
It is also possible there will be a buyout, IMHO.
L8r
Imperial Whazoo
U.S. CDC boosts national stockpile of Ebola protective gear
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/07/us-health-ebola-usa-gear-idUSKBN0IR1UQ20141107
We need to understand that while there will be headlines like this one, the headlines on the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, or the cable news that typified the headlines during the heated days when the first cases arrived at our shores will not be the norm. That is, they will not crop up and dominate the news if the lid can be kept on this outbreak for a while.
To the extent possible, Ebola will be out of the spotlight by willing cooperation to avoid panic. However, it will not completely disappear unless it either gets worse in an accellerated manner or a cure/treatment/vaccine shows up that excites folks about it being less of a threat.
My expectation is that it will remain on the edge of mainstream focus, but, apart from either of these two eventualities, the emphasis has to be on protection and prevention.
Protection/prevention means haz-mat suits. Haz-mat suits mean APT.
As indicated by the headline, the governmental entities are snarfing up the inventory of suits.
APT has no debt.
APT can expand within existing capacity without stretching itself by dilution of its share position.
Players are looking at the haz-mat suit manufacturers. APT an excellent choice and here are several reasons why:
Under priced:
APT is a bargain. The rush to buy in big chunks in the relative darkness of the after-hours market is instructive. For buying to have been transacted yesterday afternoon all the way up to $3.50 tells me that the people nimble enough to leverage the news after hours told the market that they think there is profit to be made if buying happens up to that level. Fact is, the level at which profits can be substantial is probably higher than $3.50, but for the moment, the market activity has instructed the observant.
Suppy & demand favor it:
With demand for suits in place, APT's ability to ramp up without delay is huge. And with no need to sell shares (or debt or warrants, etcetera) to raise money to begin supplying into the demand that this Reuters headline tells us exists, APT is very well positioned to have its next SEC filings shine like never before.
There will very likely be talk of APT getting bought:
It may well be that some big player in the medical device field wants to make APT's insiders an offer they can not refuse, and if a sell out of the company happens, given all the positives, we shareholders will do very well indeed.
Taxation and increased sales cooperate to hold price up:
Because of the timing of the Ebola black swan event, if APT is flipped between now and year's end, taxes on a short term trade will be due. Since APT's next quarterly will be early next year, and since yesterday's news release builds the reasonable expectation that the next quarter will be fabulous, it follows that there is no incentive to flip the shares that might have just been bought.
For these reasons alone, I do not see that this stock has any direction to go in other than UP!
My opinion, only, of course.
Imperial Whazoo
Gaps get filled. So, the tendancy of chartists who fail to look at the after hours buying will proly read the chart of today's open as a gap needing to be filled.
Now, unlike a lot of gaps, APT's gap on open today was actually filled by all the activity that bought into it yesterday afternoon. So it occurs to me that this gap may not really behave like a "Normal" gap.
I just threw up a chart in one minute candles. I displayed the extended session for yesterday so I could see the after hours price candles. Displaying only normal hours on the heels of yesterday's afterhours explosion would give only a partial picture.
I wanted to check to see whether it gapped up yesterday after hours even using the most granular chart, a 1 minute chart.
It did not.
The 1 minute candle that closed the day was this:
15:59 to 16:00
- Open @ 3.0557
- Close @ 3.05
- High @ 3.08
- Low @ 3.05
- Volume @ 15,352 traded
There was no gap to fill. Here was the activity for the next minute. News came out at 16:00, BTW.
16:00 to 16:01
- Open @ 3.05
- Close @ 3.29
- High @ 3.45
- Low @ 3.05
- Volume @ 9,933 traded
So, there is no gap to be filled, even though the price this AM looks like a gap to a retail trader who might operate on the theory that today's gap must get filled, which is generally the rule.
Today's open was at 3.39, BTW.
With the close at 3.05 & open at 3.39, it logically looks like a gap needing to be filled. I'm not arguing that it is not an apparent gap. I'm just pointing out that the trading after hours needs to be considered in order for the actual trading behavior to be illuminating.
However, I will grant that perception is often truth, so there may be a filling of the gap, but facts are facts: there was buying that fully filled the gap after hours, so as a matter of pragmatic reality, there is no gap to fill.
Simple as that.
Imperial Whazoo
Look at the sizes of the buys right now.
Just like yesterday, the buys are 100 shares.... 200 shares.... a few 1000 share trades.
Now look at that afterhours ticker from yesterday:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=107922051
Big difference in the nature of the executed trades.
I watch this stock all the time. Today is like Thursday is like Wednesday is like Tuesday.... etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
Watching paint dry. Whoo hoo! After lunch, I'll do some calisthenics to try to keep from dozing off, LOL!!
The MMs are walking this puppy sytematically down. I agree with the posters who have said this in several posts in the last day or two.... because I think there is a plan by some players to build sizable positions in this stock (and in several other key stocks related to this Ebola threat).
Also, IMHO, there is an unspoken, unprovable, "mind-set conspiracy" to dampen down all vectors of which "Ebola Panic" consists.
And "MINDSET CONSPIRACY" is my own, made up wording that I've resorted to to put into words what I think is really going on in situations like this one. Its just my way of trying to wrap wording around an inexplicable circumstance. These things always make sense. They just do so in ways that are not along normal sight-lines of thought, thats all. All my opinion, mind you.
So, that said, it is natural for self-preservation to kick in when "the powers that be" are threatened by a black swan event.
So, I agree with the expression of suspicion found in several posts since yesterday's news. There is a broad spectrum, unspoken concensus to remove the events of which the Ebola black-swan event consists from the spot-light. A MIND-SET CONSPIRACY rather than an enunciated, devious plan, IMHO, but folks are entitled to be bigger conspiracy theorists if ythey like. Whatever floats your boat, IMHO. I prefer MINDSET CONSPIRACY.
That said, when news of big sales in a haz-mat suit manufacturer comes out, it is to be expected for the price to react counter to the way it would be expected to have done at first blush.
Mindsets want the price down because they do not want panic, and players want price down so they can make as much money as possible while the crisis plays itself out.
Here's why, IMHO.
Yesterday afternoon, players who watch and buy and sell afterhours, bought in sizable chunks on the news.
Again, compare today to this post's data. The conclusins jump out at you.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=107922051
Now, why then are folks not buying with similar vigor right now? And also, aren't those players who jumped in after hours net losers due for having overpaid for their buys yeaterday after hours?
Think differently. :o)
Ask yourself this question: If there was to be a buying buzz during trading hours, when all eyes are on the tape, what would retail traders see?
They would see activity that says, in effect, that they need to step across the bid/ask and buy at the ask.
What happens when the buying activity is more on the ask than on the bid?
Price rises.
Lets say there are players who want to get large positions in APT. If they let price go crazy like it did on 10/7 thru 10/13, they have to buy at higher prices. Right?
If you want to make a lot of money, what serves to attain this goal better: buying at unexploding levels or hurriedly buying when price is exploding?
The 10/7 thru 10/13 explosion in price was not supported by news that the company was selling in a manner that would of supported the increased price, was it?
I mean.... Ebola hit the headlines and prices in all kinds of "Ebola plays" went up hugely, right?
But this rise happened prior to news from the companies that ran up, didn't it? So, without supporting news for John Q. Public to digest, prices in all the "Ebola plays" fell to Earth immediately, right?
So what was the news that came out yesterday afternoon? It was the buttressing needed to build a reason into the chart of APT. Thats what it was. Yesterday's after hours news was SUBSTANCE that places APT on the radar scope as a legitimate stock to play for the duration of the "Ebola crisis" black-swan event.
Simple as that.
With yesterday's news, is the company in a position to have its price go up and remain up because of its financials being supportive of the rise in price?
Yes.
So, if you are a player who realizes that the Ebola crisis will not go away, who heard the announcement by Obama that he wants a budget of 6.18 Billion for thie Ebola fight.....
....if you are a player who realizes that this company is making money, has no debt, is not over-capitalized, does not have to sell shares to ramp up manufacturing, and has exansion ready to go to meet demand, what would you like to see happen to the price of the stock right now?
Would you like for price to go back down so you can buy in over the remainder of the fall or would you prefer to be forced to buy in at a fast clip as prices go up in reaction to the news that just came out?
Remember, this stock is lightly held, thinly traded, and it has a small float. As such, it can be pushed around by small MM pays.
I think it is as plain as the nose on my face that this stock is favored now by players looking to make money off the "Ebola crisis" black swan event. And these guys want to build positions over time. Yesterday's after hours news was a chance for them to accumulate out of the retail spotlight. And now that the daylight hours are here, they are back reading from the script they operated by each day since the explosion in price in October.
Its as simple as that.
One thing has to be grasped: 95% of all people who are in this stock do not lead with their wallets. Only a small number of buyers have the where-with-all to plan ahead by doing the heavy lifting required to accumulate sizable positions at low prices.
Most people follow.
The MMS know that bringing the price down after fabulous news causes indecision amongst the masses.
A guy may want to buy, but when he sees price fall when it logically ought to rise, the doubt that is injected into the equation causes him to NOT buy.
NOT BUYING looks like the chart that is happening right now. The bid gets stepped back, a penny at a time. MMs, with the deep pockets and the control, sell a paltry amount at the bid. Sell at the bid, not the ask. Lower the bid a penny. Do it again.
The net net is that there are no people willing to step across the bid/ask and buy at the ask.
The guys like the ones who bought in big chunks after hours did so because fewer eyes were watching.
They do not mind buying at higher prices after hours. The know that 3.40 & 3.50 is a discount price to pay, and they use the camo of it being after hours as cover to let them step into much more sizable positions, on which they KNOW they will make money anyway over time. And who wants to pay taxes this year if they can buy now, hold a couple of months, and sell after the news of the successes gets files with the SEC after Jan 1? Why not use short term tax free money for a couple or three months?
Duh!
So, they rush in under the cover of after hours darkness. Then they go back to leveraging the habit of doubt that governs the masses, who only know how to follow.
They let their MMs walk the price back and the return to employing the turtle-wins-the-race playbook that sees them offset the higher cost the paid in the afterhour by cost averaging down via the machanations of the MMs through whom they conduct their daily buying & selling.
Thats how I see it. Could be wrong, of course, LOL
Hope this helps. :o)
Imperial Whazoo
Hey folks. Want to know something interesting about APT in the afterhour runup that happened on the news release? The size of the trades being made is substantially larger than what was typical during the day.
All day, I watch the T&S and the Level 1 and this puppy is being stepped into by bigger buying players than was typical during the trading day.
If this is any indication, then IMHO, this puppy is going to FLY tomorrow.
My point is that the players stepping in after hours are not retail. They are players. At EOD today, this puppy got a bums rush to a low that was ridiculous. Like.... I watched it fight its way up all day and then at EOD it got torpedoed by the MMs bigtime.
Well, I of course did not get stampeded.
So, when it took off after hours I went and checked the news, read it, and I have been sitting here watching it trade ever since. So, I watch it all day anyway, and now, instead of going biking or running like I usually do, I'm still sitting here. I can simply state it as a fact that the buying after hours is really serious.
And bear in mind that these guys whose transaction sizes after hours are much bigger than the buyers during the day were.... these people are deciding to buy at 40 cents higher than the close & they are executing trade after trade....in large chunks.
Anyone pulling the trigger this way is definitely expecting profits to follow from these levels. Not from the level that it closed at. At THESE levels.
So I predict that tomorrow and thereafter, we see a really nice uptrend kick in. Really muscular, if my read on this buying activity is accurate.
I think I'm seeing it as it really is.
Simple as that.
Go baby go baby go baby go!!!
Imperial Whazoo
Are you referring to the incubation period of the doctor in New York City? I only ask because the media has stopped reporting. And also, its not clear that this is what you are talking about unless you are specific.
TIA
Imperial Whazoo
Elaborate please. What tells you its coming Monday?
Thnx
Imperial Whazoo
Listen.... I followed your link to the insider site you pointed to and the data that is there and the idea that these guys only want to "hold onto this cash cow". Looks to me like that idea is not supported by the data.
Where am I to see any buying by the insiders in that site's data? Looks to me like these guys are simply converting options they have voted themselves and turning around and selling at a considerable profit.
Now, maybe they hold so many shares that nobody could ever swoop in and buy the company by obtaining a strong enough share position to force the sale of the company. Maybe that strong share position makes it to where these insiders have enough shares to allow them to periodically convert options to shares that they immediately sell at considerable proifit. Maybe they have so many shares above the midpoint of voting power that they can safely do this kind of profiteering without weakening their voting power. So, I guess, from that angle, this company is a cash cow for them. I guess that being able to do this repeatedly would make the company their own personal cash cow, which they would want to keep in their control.
But these guys are actually running a good product line. This is not one of those stinky pinky stocks where they have to print shares to line their pockets. These "insiders" are generating actually strong results. Regularly. Repeatedly.
According to all the recent corporate filings, this company is increasing in its profits, both net and gross.
It is debt free.
And it is in a strong position with it's product lines.
It is one of about 4 companies able to immediately supply haz-mat suits to a world that needs haz-mat suits.
So, with all these positives, it looks to me like somebody (or somebodies) wants to build up a large block of shares by spooking ordinary shareholders via a hugely hurtful plunge in prices.
When I see this kind of activity in an otherwise strong company, I see it as a chance to build up my own share position. I fish around for a bottom. Based on a close watch of the level 2 & Time / Sales ticker, I think somebody is forcing the share price down so they build up a large share position at the least cost per share.
Since this is what is happening, (IMHO), I'm a buyer.
To each his own, of couse, but I think I will fish around for a low and, if wrong at a given day, I'll fish some more. The money side of this company is excellent, as is the product side.
It thus follows that this stock is NOT going to zero.
Somebody (or somebodies) is messing with the price, deliberately driving it as far down as they can. Thats what I think is going on here.
All my opinion, as everyone can see, but it IS my thinking and I am not the least bit intimidated by unknowns that I could be wrong about that would negate it. Its what it looks like to me, and I share it here in hopes others will show me that I'm wrong, so I can get out before losing too much (LOL) or that I'm right (so I can build a bigger pot of gold and profit therefrom).
Peace & good luck folks.
Imperial Whazoo
Well, after all, it looks like somebody decided to sell it down as the day ended. Does the company actually care about stock price? I thought they have a budgeted amount in place with which to buy back shares?
Yuk!
Imperial Whazoo
Well, wasn't the first 20 minutes interesting this morning?
First, there was a lack of interest resulting in a gradual drift down. The motion was not like it was going to turn back up, but then.... BAM!!!.... somebody (or somebodies) began to buy.
The interest was definately in buying it after that terribly uninterested start.
Anyway, the fact is that there are only a handful of sources of hazmat suits and the companies that are already positioned, as is the case for APT, are going to generate handsome sales this quarter. We won't see the numbers till early next year but the fact remains that there is going to be a lot of buying of hazmat suits and related supplies this quarter.
APT has zero debt, a recent history of increased earnings (and sales) quarter to quarter, and it strongly positioned from an inventory point of view.
To judge by the way this thing rebounded off the lows this morning, somebody besides me is looking at this as an accumulate.
I like it.
Imperial Whazoo
Yep. Volume before price.
I was on the CBOT and you could close your eyes and listen to the "volume" of the open outcry pits. When something happened, there was a rush for one side or the other, followed by an audible volume of outcries responding from the other side of the equation.
The volume we all look at in a computerized world...
(where what we are viewing on our screens is the graphic representation of the digital real-time data streem delayed by the realities of the data being served up from aggregation servers somewhere out there in the ethers)
.... is represented on a chart as a histogram, generally in green or red, that trickles along the bottom of the graph.
Translate the histogram behavior, in whatever timeframe you desire, into "audible volume" in your "mind's eye".
Is the outcry that is showing up in the volume histogram coming from the buy side or the sell side?
What is this "audible volume" in comparison to the ordinary volume activity of this particular trading instrument (PSID in this case)?
So you are correct:
Volume over price.
Practical application of this:
Judge the short term future of price by "listening" to the behavior of the volume histogram along the bottom of the chart.
Tres bien.
IW
Finckus -
Lets say that the "reason" for the "dump" was precisely what you said it was. OK. But this is not a one sided coin. If there is a dump for a certain reason, logic & fairness demand that it be acknowledged that there was a BUY for some reason.
See, it is essential that traders pick up the concept that focusing on a sell (or a buy) is one sided. The point is to watch the volume & its behavior.
See , my observation is not simply built on the idea that there was buying. I'm observing that the buying was in VERY LARGE BLOCKS & that it was being executed in a hurry.
Think about it this way. If I'm a buyer in stealth mode (so that I can accumulate over time without others getting clued in that I'm busy as a beaver building a massive position), I do this by buying in lot sizes that do not tell the world that I'm in accumulation mode.
If I screw up & I get seen, then I'm challenged by the need to buy at higher prices than I'd be able to get away with if my buy program goes undetected.
If, on the other hand, I want a sizable position but I reach the conclusion that things may well happen sooner rather than later, what I am forced to do is to buy without the camo gear on and the size of trades I will have to make will be LARGER.
So, thats my point: I watch the Level 1, Time & Sales, and the Level 2. What happened yesterday was that somebody threw caution to the wind and bought big chunks at a time. Now a lot of ordinary sized trades happened.... that was the norm. But it was the frequent large size buys that gave the game away.
Somebody was stepping in, throwing caution to the wind, and buying PSID in a hurry & in big block buys.
What do you think is going on? Good or bad?
I think it is interesting that so many really large blocks of shares traded in the afternoon session. Saw several over a million shares traded at a pop.
Some folks are frightened & its logical because this is a pink that did not do well today and everybody who has been around here for longer than a month has this failure routine down pat. But when there are a bunch of big block buys, I tend to look at things optimistically. Some folks with lots of $$$$ to spend are stepping into this one in a very big way. Most certainly, they were not spooked by today's action.
At the very least, there are going to be some folks with really huge positions that they just picked up today who will do really badly if this is actually a failure unfolding right here & now. I don't think its a failure happening right in our line of sight. Thats my opinion.
I believe my lying eyes, LOL, and I am bullish because the big block buying was done throughout the afternoon.
Somebody believes there is something worth sinking $$$$ into in large chunks.
One thing the action says is that whoever is doing it has the apparent idea that they need to hurry up and get in. They would be accumulating in indistinguishable size trades over a longer period of time so that nobody could figure out that they were buying a big position if they felt there was time to waste.
The very acts of buying in such a hurry with BIG lots being bought suggests to me that there is the feeling amongst those doing the buying that they need to go ahead and pull the trigger. Damn the torpedos and full speed ahead.... that kind of thing.
Anyway, I like the block buys.
We'll see.
Imperial Whazoo
Not a single more tradable share today than Friday. Simple fact. They AUTHORIZED shares. Actually trading shares/dilution? Not so much.
I read the filing. Plain & clear that this authorization is anticipatory. Could they use the authorized shares to fend off a hostile takeover? Thats what they specifically said in the filing. And I've read lots of filings. This one, atypically, makes a specific point of noting that the possible future use of this arsenal of shares could be to fend off a hostile takeover.
Imperial Whazoo
OK
Let me think out loud aboud the thing.
The explanation (so say you, that is) is that the company is planning to sell itself.
So, if they double the size of the shares that are out there & they ARE intending to sell, logically, I'd conclude that what you are saying is that the existing insider shareholders are going to hold onto their existing shares rather than sell them.
Appparently, what's being conjectured is that the acquirer will take their new share position by obtaining their buyout shares from the newly issued shares. That way, the exiasting insiders entities can have a continued position while financially benefitting by letting a buyer get a sizable position too.
Is that the basic idea?
Imperial Whazoo
Hey Krisandtilly - Did that statement come from yesterday's Congressional hearings? Or was it from a Congressional hearing that happened sometime earlier thatn yesterday?
TIA
Imperial Whazoo
I'd like to compare the charts of the companies you are referring to to PSID.
Would you provide the symbols to us so we can look at the charts and think thru the DD with those to look back at?
Sure would help.
The symbols of those Ebolas please???
TIA
Imperial Whazoo
Yeah. I see what your looking at. I say to watch volume at that level or there-abouts and it will be obvious whether its going to crater or bounce from there.
Peace.
IW
Does anyone know what the explanation of today's move is? I've nosed around and come up empty. Anyone more successful in unearthing whatever caused this?
TIA
Imperial Whazoo
Kool. Thnx.
:o)
IW
Thats called "Hyperbole". I didn't actually scream at the TV. I "kinda", as in hyperbole, for the sake of emphasis.As in "kinda".
Kapiche?
And yes, go check out that video footage, buckaroo. No hyperbole and not the least bit unclear.
Imperial Whazoo
What are the other two and how do the drugs of these three companies compare? Names (& symbols if applicable), anyone ?
Imperial Whazoo
Noooo..... you are not correct. What I did was report on what I heard on the tube from an interviewer. Or more precisely, my report of what a reporter talking to an interviewie said.
And anyway, the video I've seen of the car IMSC examined show an ability to find all kinds of materials. Not just bombs but the video shows them able to wipe a surface & find a material other than metalic.
Its apparent some hate IMSC for some reason. Whatever. I like it and think their video of swabbing the car for a variety of materials is solid proof they are not limited to metalics. Simple. Video. Obvious. Clear. Evidence.
Simple obversational skills are all that one needs employ. Acid vitriol and hatred of IMSC not required, LOL.
Peace.
IW
Can't help you there, bucko. Do you intend to find out?
I figure that the heads of these governmental entities have effective gate keepers who filter out most attempts to get the head honcho's to know stuff, so maybe an effort to target the getekeepers is what is called for. In any event, the guy saying that there is no alternative out there to the present machines, which he stated did not work.... this knowledge gap needs to be overcome somehow.
Imperial Whazoo
As I trade, I watch Fox Business, CNBC, Bloomberg, & MSNBC on the tube, which is across the room from me. A couple of hours ago, there was an interview on one of them with some guy whose title indicated that he is head of the New York City anti-terrorism entity.
Since I'm usually distracted by trading activities when I catch snippets of interviews such as this one, I apolgize that I can not give sufficient details. I'm not even sure which channel had the interview.
That said, one thing I did hear said by the guy being interviewed was that there is an effort by bombers to use not metallic bomb materials & that current machines do not work in detecting these new materials.
Then he said something like "...and there is nothing out there that will allow us to use a mcahine to address this deficiency". I kind of screamed at the screen: "Hey buddy!.. Yes there is! Check out IMSC!!!"
Somebody up in NYC needs to get to the media and let them know that there is a solution available.
If there is never going to be the knowledge registering with the heads of these governmental entities, we need to get through to company management and communicate this problem and suggest that they target getting the decion making info out there in the key locations like NYC. Maybe a full page ad in the New York Times would be worth the expense. Anything with half a chance is better than the present deficient situation.
Imperial Whazoo
Oh you are so right. I am so greatly in your debt. How could I ever even think of operating apart from applying the body of ideas some other person deems to be the most important?
How could I ever have done even the smallest of successful trades without trecking to worship at the feet of your approach to things? How I say? HOW!!!!
I'm a failure! A FAILURE I say!!!!
Oh, woe is me. I hold my sad and aching head in my pathetic hands and sob.
Woe is me!
Woe, I say.... WOE!!!!
:o)
Imperial Whazoo