Alpha Pro Tech (APT)

[Imperial Whazoo]

U.S. CDC boosts national stockpile of Ebola protective gear
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/07/us-health-ebola-usa-gear-idUSKBN0IR1UQ20141107

We need to understand that while there will be headlines like this one, the headlines on the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, or the cable news that typified the headlines during the heated days when the first cases arrived at our shores will not be the norm. That is, they will not crop up and dominate the news if the lid can be kept on this outbreak for a while.

To the extent possible, Ebola will be out of the spotlight by willing cooperation to avoid panic. However, it will not completely disappear unless it either gets worse in an accellerated manner or a cure/treatment/vaccine shows up that excites folks about it being less of a threat.

My expectation is that it will remain on the edge of mainstream focus, but, apart from either of these two eventualities, the emphasis has to be on protection and prevention.

Protection/prevention means haz-mat suits. Haz-mat suits mean APT.

As indicated by the headline, the governmental entities are snarfing up the inventory of suits.

APT has no debt.

APT can expand within existing capacity without stretching itself by dilution of its share position.

Players are looking at the haz-mat suit manufacturers. APT an excellent choice and here are several reasons why:

Under priced:
APT is a bargain. The rush to buy in big chunks in the relative darkness of the after-hours market is instructive. For buying to have been transacted yesterday afternoon all the way up to $3.50 tells me that the people nimble enough to leverage the news after hours told the market that they think there is profit to be made if buying happens up to that level. Fact is, the level at which profits can be substantial is probably higher than $3.50, but for the moment, the market activity has instructed the observant.

Suppy & demand favor it:
With demand for suits in place, APT's ability to ramp up without delay is huge. And with no need to sell shares (or debt or warrants, etcetera) to raise money to begin supplying into the demand that this Reuters headline tells us exists, APT is very well positioned to have its next SEC filings shine like never before.

There will very likely be talk of APT getting bought:
It may well be that some big player in the medical device field wants to make APT's insiders an offer they can not refuse, and if a sell out of the company happens, given all the positives, we shareholders will do very well indeed.

Taxation and increased sales cooperate to hold price up:
Because of the timing of the Ebola black swan event, if APT is flipped between now and year's end, taxes on a short term trade will be due. Since APT's next quarterly will be early next year, and since yesterday's news release builds the reasonable expectation that the next quarter will be fabulous, it follows that there is no incentive to flip the shares that might have just been bought.

For these reasons alone, I do not see that this stock has any direction to go in other than UP!

My opinion, only, of course.

Imperial Whazoo