Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Walker, welcome aboard. You hit the nail on the head that the stock should never have dropped so low. It was trading at .0024 when Hilal issued a disappointing 15c-211 when he moved the registration from Delaware to Nevada. Sales at that time looked to be at about a $3 million run rate, and this disappointed a lot of investors who were expecting double that or more, So it dropped into a range of .0006 to .001.
There was also an additional Regdex after the company announced a 3 year $10 million contract with a Korean company that never came to fruition. And after that it steadily traded downward to no bid within a couple years in the absence of news from the CEO for what is now over six years (after a perfunctory year end 2007 greetings to shareholders) and a steady does of bashing from what we believe are NS MM tools. There have been very substantive updates though on the Cetek website on the technology, the inventories of stock, and a major upgrade of the Hybrid-Tek facility in a video which I highly recommend watching.
Now we know the annual revenues are around $10 million with 45 employess from publicly available data and he is currently hiring six new employees. Cetek has at least three subsidiaries, and one of them Hybrid-Tek alone is probably worth .002 or more with defense contracts and operating in a modern, extremely high-tech facility. DannyD recently visited there and was extremely impressed with the operation employing 16 highly paid employees.
There are some unknowns, like the exact share structure, but it now appears highly likely that the 6.1 billion shares which Hilal posted back in late 2006 reflected convertible debt that he never converted into shares of stock, as documented in DrLarzo's research posts. So it appears highly likely that the share count is no more that 4.6 million shares, to err on the conservative side, and quite possibly considerably less than that. There has been no dilution since the 2006 regdex, unheard of for a pink sheet company.
Good luck to you.
Penny, I thought you said you were going back to sleep for about five more years, but I notice you posting furiously the last couple days trying to throw a wet blanket on the excitement. Like I said yesterday, the stock can go up plenty without an official update because Hilal has provided an update with the reinstatement and on the website with his exciting advanced ceramic products. Plus, we've done the DD here.
So no, you and Orange don't dictate that there can be no rise in the stock price without some stirring press release. Sorry...but we know a lot from publicly available information. And nobody's going to pretend anymore that we know nothing about the company. I laugh every time I see you trying to enforce that mentality. Sorry...we're on to your psychological warfare ploys. The potential here is about as good as I've seen, considering the fact that Hilal has about $10 million in revenues, 45 employees and hiring six employees at the moment and a 22 year old continuously operating business with bleeding edge technology. So good luck getting your .0001s although I know the NS crew will try their best. But you need to tell your boys, the shares are just going to get locked in stronger and stronger hands if that happens.
Deano, I agree not a bad day for Cetek at all, considering the market bias was pretty negative and there wasn't much good happening in the penny stocks. And we ended the day with a nice supporting bid at .0002.
The fundamental story is so strong here that there's not a lot of incentive to panic and sell at .0002, because there's almost no chance of getting back in at .0001. And so I think a nice steady chipping away at the .0003s is underway, and eventually we will gain momentum.
DrLarzo, I did not know that about a non-reporting company that a RegD was required. I thought it was but nice to have that confirmed. So the suggestion by Orangeman that Hilal issued new shares last summer to cover the reinstatement was utterly false? Hmmm
So....the fact that there have been no RegDs since 2006 means Hilal for sure has issued no new shares unless he chose to break the law? That's good to know. No dilution in seven plus years means Cetek is generating some seriously good cash flow, given all the expansion that has occurred since then and documented on the Hybrid-Tek website video.
Outstanding post StockingUp. These short-term flippers are making a huge mistake here. Hey Flippers...flip a few, but make sure you have some when the curtain gets pulled back.
Yeah End2war, thanks for that clarification about the as of date on the outstanding shares. That was a real strange way to present the information, and I think Drlarzo's analysis and yours makes a lot of sense. It was also strange that Hilal was trying to get a handle on how many shares we actually owned...certainly supportive of the NS theory.
And yes, any estimates I have made of the fundamental value of Cetek shares were just a simple 2 times the $10 million in revenues divided by 6.1 billion shares or about .0033. At 4.6 billion shares the valuation would be .0043. Using your calculation of only 2 billion shares, then you get a valuation of .01, and if we only have a billion shares, then we have .02 as a projected market valuation. I'm not even going to put Drlarzo's numbers on here because I'll be accused of pumping, and some moderator here likes to delete my posts. I might also point out that based on Hilal's recent hiring spree that revenues may be rapidly accelerating in the current year, which would adjust these estimates upward of course. Stock price valuations are always forward looking, so these estimates are probably too low. And with Hilal's prowess in the advanced ceramics industry and his known proprietary processes, the company could trade at a market cap higher than 2 times revenues, but let's not quibble.
Of course, I wouldn't even venture to guess how high this stock will trade if the SS is as low as you and Drlarzo think may be the case, because then we know for certain there is a huge naked short position from the pre-Reg SHO days in this stock that will eventually burn when Hilal makes his move.
And maybe, just thinking outside the box, that is why Hilal won't tell us anything. He wants us to be around for the final curtain in this strange bizarre play. And it could be monumental... certainly worth the price of the tickets down here.
Heyheyhey, appreciate the feedback. And are you aware that last year Hilal hired two managers at salaries up to $150,000 a year? These are Managers. Do you realize how loathe Hilal would be to hire managers at that salary? I don't think we can even imagine how full the penny-pinching Hilal's bank account must be to shell out $300k for two jobs I'm sure he would consider unnecessary until he just physically couldn't deal with what was happening, even with 70 hour weeks.
I think the hire of these high-level managers also bodes well for a succession plan either being put in place or gaining momentum.
Not to worry HeyheyHey....please refer to my post from March 9th on pathways to shareholder success. Once you unravel the mystery of what the potential rewards are, which I think we are well along to accomplishing, then you know how far you are willing and can afford to go to get the information.
If DrLarzo's share structure theory is any where close to correct, then we have some VERY powerful shareholders here.
Well....I certainly have the utmost respect for the research you have done DrLarzo, because I know what it takes to dig up information on this company. I do know that Hilal had a very large investor, probably the guy who took down all these RegDs. And I totally agree that I believe Hilal is far too smart to have diluted the shares at .0006 and lower when the year before I know with ABSOLUTE certainty that he bought back 90 million shares between .0012 and .0014.
It's just hard for me to imagine that the share count could be that low, but that's probably because there are three people on this board who probably own all the shares in that upper range of 740,000,000 shares. But that would explain a lot about why this stock has acted the way it has and why we have "long" shareholders actively talking down the stock and calling factual DD BS.
I know you have posted your research previously, but I'd strongly encourage you to repost your findings in as much detail as possible so that all the new people here can see the numbers supporting your thesis. It would sure be a whole lot easier for Hilal to post the numbers on the website, but as many have theorized, he has been burned by naked shorting before and is determined to pay them back when the time is right.
I sure hope you're right DrLarzo. I'm convinced it's a couple billion less than the 6.1 billion "sandbag" number Hilal published with fully converted debt into shares, but if you're right, this will become the mother of all NS squeezes.
FWIW, my friend who knew Hilal used to tell me that Hilal was able to get contracts by taking along his bank account to any deal meetings, and this was back in 2005.
Igoio, for many years since 2006, the reported outstanding was 6.1 billion shares. However, after DrLarzo's recent review of the Reg Ds in 2005 and 2006, it appears that convertible debt was issued and not shares of stock. And since no fees were ever paid to the transfer agent for the stock, we believe that convertible debt was retired without being converted to shares of stock. That would mean there could be a couple billion shares less outstanding than the 6.1 billion which reflected conversion of all debt to shares. We obviously need an update on this, but the point is that the O/S may be a lot less than advertised. There has been no dilution since 2006 and the company has no debt. It had an unheard of 15 to 1 current ratio in the 15c-211 filing in 2006.
Rick, that post is a work of art. It sure puts the market maker activity here in a proper perspective. I'm surprised it survived the cutting knife of that one moderator.
Orangeman, I find your post amazing that as a long-term stockholder here that you have to clarify your position with such a statement as "Of course we want the stock to go up." Uhh..excuse me, I thought that was the purpose of buying a stock. I guess that means it has to be for the "right" reasons, which only you and Penny are allowed to define?
The problem here for you and Penny is that YES, the stock can go up substantially without another word from Hilal. There is PLENTY of publically available information about the company, such as 45 employees, $10 million in revenues and hiring six new employees. You can also take the time to look thru the Cetek website and see that Hybrid-Tek recently went thru a major expansion, that Hilal is selling 36 inch substrates in some materials, which are the largest in the advanced ceramics industry, and that Hilal even has enough cash to hold most items in inventory, a huge change from the days when they produced items only when there were pending orders. That means he has spare cash in addition to the $46,800 reinstatement. Just because you and Penny refuse to acknowledge the publically available information that Hilal has provided on his website doesn't mean the stock price shouldn't reflect what we do know.
And sorry, but no one can state with certainty whether there is a naked short position in Cetek grandfathered in from the pre-Reg Sho days or not. You simply don't know what happened back then, nor do I. But I know Hilal asserted that there was, and anyone with an open mind watching Cetek trade, as opposed to the trading I discussed in BNY^ yesterday, would have to think it is a good possibility. The fact that you don't seem to understand the whole purpose of naked shorting is to cause massive dilution and a further collapse in the stock price does not give me any confidence in your assertions to the contrary. So swearing and quoting statutes and pretending like you're 100% certain doesn't give you any additional credibility. Plus, no one is arguing with you that post reg-SHO naked shorts get covered in a reasonable amount of time.
But it's all about the FUNDAMENTALS here...a million dollar market cap and a company with $10 million in revenues is undervalued, especially when there's no dilution happening for seven years and the O/S may be significantly over-stated. That's the story here, and if we happen to fry a bunch of naked shorts, then it could really get interesting in a hurry.
End2war, thanks for stating the obvious, so I didn't have to repeat myself. One minute Cetek is a five to 15 year stock and the next it's a good short-term trading vehicle, and the next it's something for the Great-grandchildren, and then the next it's a good trading vehicle for the next few weeks. This guy has more twists in his posts than Chubby Checker. He must be literally petrified by that 800 million share bid. And I guess we can't blame him as many naked shares as there probably are in this stock.
But what makes me happiest is when Rip refers to $10 million in revenues, 45 employees, specific data taken from the Cetek website, and 6 new hires on public websites as "WC BS". I am proud to have that kind of "BS" on my stock anyday, especially when the stock price discounts the apoalypse. He sure wasn't slumbering the last few days with CTKH threatening to overwhelm the wall of resistance the MMs have thrown up. But you be careful End2war...don't get taken in by the facts...you listen to the voice of experience and the guy who bought at the very top of the market bubble in the early 2000s. Lol
End2war, thanks for confirming that addition for me on the Belanger website. I looked at it over the weekend and was thinking that it was a lot more substantive than before, but I wasn't sure. Those pictures are magnificent, what can be done with ceramics.
And remember, the whole thing about the Cetek process is that you heat ceramic material up to 3000 degrees F and never have any wasted product, and it mostly doesn't require additional grinding or smoothing. Although the purpose of Belanger's process is to turn it into something unbelievably smooth and polished for whatever application you can imagine.
Yeah Fglobal, I agree about your post and I've had some substantive posts deleted as well.
I don't know about you, but I've seldom heard any worse news about a company I've owned than a reinstatement. The very thought of my company getting more and bigger contracts just gives me the creeps and makes me want to run for the exits. Give me a company with an inactive status anyday.
Hey...I see you've awoken from your slumber Penny, even leading a bashing round on Friday night...Makes me go Hmmmm.
I've never seen a guy so upset about the possibility of his stock going up. And this pretense that there is no information about the company is BS Penny. You need go no farther than the Cetek website. And I will always have a ton of shares more than you at any price you want to name Penny. And please don't ask what my buying or selling plans are again. I will tell you this. I will buy any time I'm convinced the price is headed higher, because I have never seen a decent company so undervalued in all my trading days.
One other thing..there are huge inflows moving into the penny stocks this year....so far the most since 2006 and if you think this stock is going to continue to trade at no bid, you're sadly mistaken. I will post a link later.
Grogger, another thing. you obviously have not looked at the Cetek website recently. Do yourself a favor and get informed by watching the video on Hybrid-tek where he announced a major upgrade to the facility to anybody who cares to listen or watch. Most importantly, it's the first thing his customers see. There's plenty of recent information out there on Cetek, Hybrid and Belanger. Like he's producing 36 inch substrates, the largest in the industry and he keeps inventory on most items now, whereas, he didn't have the cash to maintain an inventory years ago.
Stop the belly-aching and take a look.
I wouldn't wait too long to hit that 650,000,000 share bid Deano.... You can never be too quick on the trigger when you're selling this kind of overvaluation. lolol
Grogger, what you fail to realize in all your postings is that we have already unveiled a lot of what Hilal has not talked about all these years. Granted, there's a huge amount we don't know but we have a darned good idea of what the revenues and employees are. And I think we also have a pretty good idea that the share structure is considerably less than 6.1 billion, based on the fact that Hilal never made a payment to the transfer agent for the shares which would have been associated with the convertible debt he issued in 2005 and 2006.
Plus, there is suddenly huge interest in the pink sheets and OTCBBs after many years of declining volume. Even if Hilal doesn't say a word for a period of time, this stock, based on what we do know, is enormously undervalued. The stock price will probably not reach the levels it should without Hilal releasing information, but it certainly could have a great run from these levels even without comment.
Yeah Fglobal, we have a stock price which discounts the apocalypse and worse, and Rip thinks we should trade lower or that it's bad news that Hilal can get more contracts by being reinstated. Don't buy this stock because Hilal's going to get a bunch of new contracts because he reinstated the company for $46,800. Yeah, that makes perfect sense to me....lolol
Deano, have you noticed ol' Rip van Winkle woke up over the weekend? Lol I think he's a little frazzled with 650 million shares on the bid.
StockingUp, I think all the things you mentioned are possible here, because for all the warts Hilal has as a CEO, it is always in the shareholders best interest for the CEO to be focused on building a prosperous company. And while I think if CTKH had had professional management instead of Hilal's seat of the pants random marketing approach, that it would be a much more successful company than it is, I think we have proven thru the publicly available information that Cetek has done very well compared to most small businesses.
And going forward, there are several paths to SHAREHOLDER SUCCESS. The best would be if Hilal engaged in a huge stock buyback and squeezed the naked shorts into total submission. I do not believe he is likely to do this, although he may have a huge surprise on a much lower share structure than we have been led to believe. This would be the smartest and best approach from either Cetek's or the shareholders' perspective because anytime you can buy an asset approximately 90% under its value, it is a good move. However, precisely because it is the smartest thing to do, I don't believe it will be done.
The next best thing would be if Hilal sold the company and we benefitted from the sale of not only the business but the proprietary processes he has.
The third best scenario is that he starts issuing regular press releases and financial reporting. This scenario could be close to occurring because once Cetek reaches 10 million in assets, then Hilal will be required by law to be fully reporting.
The fourth best scenario is that the larger shareholders become activist, get the required 15% of the shares (I believe this is the threshold percentage) and start petitioning Hilal in court to produce financial information and to put a member on his board of directors. I do not believe this would be particularly expensive from a legal standpoint, and now that we have a pretty good idea what the company is worth, then it becomes a lot more likely to happen if Hilal continues to ignore the shareholders.
And the fifth best scenario is one where the MMs allow the stock to trade where it should on the basis of supply and demand, based on what we do know about the company. This would prevent large committed shareholders from acquiring additional shares over time at giveaway prices and completely locking up the float, even the air shares.
So I see a number of paths to a great investment here. And fortunately, the newcomers have the opportunity to get in at the bottom of the barrel, unlike many of us long-suffering long-termers who paid much higher prices.
I watched that action Friday, and that's a good question BigMoney. I see BNY^ has 5 billion authorized shares and is probably similar to CTKH in outstanding shares.
Did I see 100 share bidwhacks everytime there was a trade at the ask? NO
Did I see tens of millions of shares being sold at the bid everytime BNY^ ticked up a hundredth of a cent when there was a decent bid size? NO
Did I see the CEO putting out a big press release to support this move in the stock price? NO
Does BNY^ even have an existing business, much less a business with 45 employees and 10 million in revenues? NO
Did I see 100 million share blocks being traded between MMs at .0001 to try and suppress the upward move? NO
In other words, BNY^ apparently isn't infested with a huge naked short position.
LOL Deano. I was thinking about pulling my big orders and having a few other people pull theirs and then grabbing Orangeman's shares for a pittance. But that wouldn't be right.
But I guarantee you the MMs will be happy to take his shares at .0001, and that is precisely what that 100 million share flush at .0001 on Wednesday was intended to accomplish, along with a bunch of other amateur traders. And now look at the bid...we have 500 plus million shares bid, including 226,900,000 by NITE alone.
Corancher, the MMs are a big chunk of the reason why the stock trades where it does, so we'd better be talking about them. When we have a subsidiary like Hybrid-Tek, which has about 3 million in sales and which is worth at least a tenth of a cent all by itself, even if there are 6 billion fully diluted shares O/S, there something fishy when you watch total scams trading with market caps in the tens of millions of dollars.
Of course, it is easy for the MMs to get away with this because Hilal has taken a vow of silence to the shareholders. But yeah, you'd better care when you see MMs doing everything in their manipulative bag of tricks to keep the stock at no bid. There is no reason this stock shouldn't trade at a level reflecting what we do know about a 22 year old continuously operating company with bleeding edge advanced ceramics technology and having about $10 million in revenues and 45 employees and currently hiring six new employees.
Hilal also has many proprietary processes, including the Cetek process which could possibly be worth as much or more as the company itself, should he decide to sell the company.that's an awful lot of compelling reasons to own this stock trading at about a million dollar market cap...tons better reasons than your typical stinky pinkie.
Too funny to see NITE sitting there with 226 million on the bid. I was pretty sure they were the MM low-balling the bid. I guess we shamed them into reporting the 100 million share block. These guys are really digging themselves a hole.
Thanks Ace. More than likely, that's NITE which was the MM recipient of the 100 million share block two days ago. You might just confirm with your friend that it's routed thru NITE. It shows the MM on the order.
And then we can complain to FINRA that NITE isn't showing the true size....
Deano, while I agree that in many instances the MMs don't show their real size, I would disagree that 100 million shares is a "normal" size to hide. I have noticed that when a day order I've put in at .0001 expires that the order size is reduced accordingly. So my experience is that things are highly biased towards a lower bid size than actually exists.
I had to chuckle at Orangeman's statement that he would bail at .0001 if the bid size drops below 250 million shares. As you've stated, there could actually be a billion shares bid at .0001 that they're just not showing, although I doubt there are that many currently on the bid. HOWEVER, I do believe that there will be at least a billion shares bought at .0001 before it would go to no bid. So a word to the wise..... panic selling at .0001 may be a sucker bet.
Deano, while I agree that in many instances the MMs don't show their real size, I would disagree that 100 million shares is a "normal" size to hide. I have noticed that when a day order I've put in at .0001 expires that the order size is reduced accordingly. So my experience is that things are highly biased towards a lower bid size than actually exists.
I had to chuckle at Orangeman's statement that he would bail at .0001 if the bid size drops below 250 million shares. As you've stated, there could actually be a billion shares bid at .0001 that they're just not showing, although I doubt there are that many currently on the bid. HOWEVER, I do believe that there will be at least a billion shares bought at .0001 before it would go to no bid. So a word to the wise..... panic selling at .0001 may be a sucker bet.
Yeah Ace..I think we all know what's going on here with the MMs. They are always trying to keep CTKH in the box. Can you tell me which brokerage firm he is using?
But I am LMAO at this new 100 million share order which precisely undoes the latest round of 100 million shares dumped at .0001 to manipulate panic selling at .0001. Maybe we will see another $10k toilet flush by the MM soon to overcome this latest buy order.
Chris, congrats on your diplomatic skills and technological knowledge to allow you a glimpse behind Hilal's curtain. I suspect that good introductory experience puts you in position for a follow-up question at a future date. We will have to use it wisely.
DannyD, I do agree with Orangeman that a larger order can be printed unto itself, in this case 9,999,999 shares, and not be broken into the small component fills that were involved. HOWEVER, in my experience it would be VERY unusual to run ten consecutive 9,999,999 share transactioons through like that with none of the component fills listed for any of the ten trades.
So I'm in your camp that it was reported in blocks of 9,999,999 shares at .0001 to generate the maximum shock value, and that would necessarily be at the MMs discretion to report it that way. As I've previously noted, the idea that any trader with 100 million shares would decide to panic sell at .0001 and swallow a $10k loss with 450+ million shares on the bid at .0001 and only 40 million shares (8 thousand dollars) at the ask of .0002 on a day when the stock was getting steady hits at .0002 is absurd. Only a rank amateur would do that, and anyone with 100 million shares would probably have a bit of sophistication as a trader.
At least we know another 3,333,333 shares is safely tucked away in your fortress, and as time progresses, those shares will undoubtedly come back to haunt some unscroupulous individual out there. But for the time being, there are over 60 million shares at the ask of .0002 from the happy short-term traders who picked up those jewels at .0001 and are looking for a quick double.
Well End2war..at least we know there were 3,333,333 shares filled for DannyD at retail, so it wasn't entirely an MM transfer.
MrNiceGuy...I never doubted you were still here, but you were the only new guy I could think of that might have that many shares, so it was important to clear that up. You are exactly the type of new investor that we need to get this stock moving. We need a bunch of activist shareholders committed to accumulating the stock at these low levels and then working together, using every available research method and point of contact that we can think of to fully discover all available public knowledge about Cetek. And then, should Hilal's silence continue indefinitely, we will have a little powwow about the method needed for a substantive update from Mr Hilal about our company.
Oh..Sorry Deano that I got you and Fglobal confused on the big stock run following the Cusip number change. He's probably wondering WTH I'm talking about...lol thanks for the response.
But yeah, the whole point is that a company changes the Cusip number, outside of certain corporate altering events like a name change, when you suspect you're infested with naked shorts.
Truly amazing Chris that you got a response. You probably ought to include this post as an addendum to your sticky because it certainly adds a lot of credibility, especially if you can post his e-mail response. Thanks for contacting him and letting us know his response.
End2 war, with the benefit of having read both your post and ChrisBooth's response to you, I just think you are totally off-base with your criticism. While I believe STRONGLY that the Cetek story is far more a FUNDAMENTALS story than a "big contract" or "bitcoin" or even "naked short" story, Chris's post makes perfect sense. As we know from the Wilson Turbo heat exchanger experience, Hilal's advanced ceramics can withstand temperatures up to 1600 degrees,and the main problem with supercomputers is that they overheat and require incredibly complicated cooling techniques.
And I'm still in shock that Chrisbooth presented such a compelling scientific explanation that Hilal felt obliged to respond. I know back many years ago when I was trying to teach Corporate Finance 301 to Hilal by email, that I never got even a grunt out of him, and those were some well-written very respectful emails too.
Excellent point Bullmarketman. I kind of hinted at exactly that in when I asked Fglobal what conclusion they had reached about why his stock went from sub-penny to 80 cents. Since we've been told there cannot be any naked shorts, is it just a matter of changing your cusip and the price goes to da moon? Who'da thunk it was that simple? I don't know why every company doesn't change their cusip number on a regular basis.
Fglobal, if you're reading this, I'd still like to hear the particulars on your great stock experience with the cusip change. I assume that naked short covering had a lot to do with the stratospheric climb.
End2war, I'm pretty sure I understand what the MMs are doing here. And you need to go back a few days ago to see where I pointed out that a 50 million share block traded at .0001 and it was clearly a paint trade between MMs because nothing on the Level II bid changed, and in fact the bids at .0001 went up. This was exactly the scenario you laid out. Also, an additional 50 million shares did not show up on the ask, meaning no retailers bought at .0001 with the intention of a 100% profit flip at .0002.
However, today's 100 million share block trades reduced the Level II bid at .0001 by 100 million shares, and shortly thereafter over 60 million additional shares showed up on the ask at .0002. Now, I will concede that the MMs may be showing their bids at .0001 on Level II and that they just transferred shares. And to make it look good, they loaded a bunch of air shares at .0002 on the ask. So yes, I may be naive suggesting they ate 10k to try to get the panic sells at .0001. But this had the appearance of a sale to retailers, although as I pointed out, I have two long-standing large bids at .0001 and the only fill I've gotten to this moment is a 100 share bid whack many weeks ago.
I guess we need to ask a couple of questions. Did anyone here get a fill at .0001 today? And MrNiceGuy, are you still here? I hope and assume you are.
Ok..OK..I was doing the End2war thing...LOLOL