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AUPH
Voclosporin seems to have blockbuster potential
Potential Issues
* In Ph2, Lower dose was more efficacious than higher dose
* Ph2 subjects were highly un-uniform
* Several deaths occurred in Ph 2 subjects. Deaths occurred
in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Philz & Russia
Timeline:
* Rolling NDA submission begin in 2018
* Ph3 data is expected in Q4 1019
* Cash runway into 2020
* Earliest approval would be late 2020
ADXS
Filed MAA for second-line metastatic cervical cancer treatment. The last time a treatment was approved in the western world was ~30 years ago.
Some issues to consider before buying this stock:
* Needs cash to run appropriately powered phase III for lead
compound
* Searching for new CEO
* MAA does not have a refusal-to-file mechanism. Pay the fee and
take your chances. There is some doubt whether the Phase II study
was appropriately powered for EMA marketing approval.
* May not be able to raise enough cash to run an appropriately-sized
Phase III. They need 60-100M to do so.
* PETX will soon pay ADXS small milestone for using their listeria
vector technology in an approved osteosarcoma treatment for dogs
FOLD
Lead compound: Galifold
Galifold is approved for Fabry Disease in EU
FDA approved NDA and set PDUFA date for 8/13/18
At present burn rate, cash would last well into 2019
The rest of the pipeline will not pose foreseeable binary risk until
after PDUFA date.
TTOO
Pipeline consists of 4 products (not including Hemostat instrument):
1. FungalCandida Panel (CE marked & FDA cleared) presently marketed
Panel expansion in progress
2. Bacterial Panel (CE marked & FDA submitted) Awaiting FDA
clearance by 3/31/18
3. Bacterial Resistance Markers (Partnered with Allergan)
4. LymePanel (Partnered with Canon)
Cash and Credit Line will last into Q1 2019.
Expect financing if Bacterial Panel approved
Has gone thru 4 CFOs since it went public in 2014.
FUBAR loss of credit line, if Bacterial Panel not approved by end of April.
High Risk High Reward trade into 510(k) clearance by 3/31.
FEYE
Posted first profitable Q on 2/8
Beat by .02/share at .01/share
Revenue beat by 4 1/2 %
This relative success was based on better than expected success from
cloud offerings and successful migration to subscription business model.
Seems probable that FEYE will remain profitable for the remainder of
2018
CDLX
IPOd 5.5 million shares on 2/9/18
Uses permission to mine credit card transactions to compile marketing data.
Cooperates with bank card partners to target cardholders with advertisements based on transaction history
Earns fees on subsequent transactions.
Will likely be profitable late 2018 / early 2019
$20 target by end of 2018
It would just be different breadlines and different oligarchs.
Sometimes, I wish the USA would become a colony of Russia, just to see Schiff-ty melt.
TY, Bob.
Sorry for the delayed response.
I missed it.
I did see it on Thursday, but thought I had missed it knowing I couldn't trade on Friday. The market makes a fool of me every day. At least, I had a profitable week.
BTW, SOHU has a binary event next week. They own a valuable portion
of Sogou, a profit-making Chinese search engine that is expected to price next week. If the IPO prices, there should be at least one day of substantial gains.
Here's a thoughtful blog detailing what the IPO would mean to SOHU from a value perspective: https://snowballvalue.wordpress.com/
Thanks for your message.
There's a binary event on EVEP. A loan covenant is in violation and will be triggered next year. EVEP is on my watch list; but, I'm not in it.
I do think that any news that the loan covenant has been renegotiated will make this a good % gainer. So, it's on my watch list.
You might like EVEP
Just bought TOPS on the VTX cross.
I'm trading what I see, not what I think on this one.
Upper BB awaiting?
Me, too.
I dismissed ATOS before the close yesterday afternoon.
Market psychology weighed to heavy on me. That's why I don't like
to anticipate the broader markets.
Fell asleep listening to Kyle Bass talking about what a bad position Puerto Rico has put themselves in. Woke up losing my taste for AGO.
Watched AGO VTX cross back over.
I have a bid on IMBBY. Doubt it gets filled.
I try to remain agnostic about market direction.
But, next Thursday SEEMS like do-or-die. Big names will be reporting. Maybe your GBTC idea would be a good idea Thursday overnight. I will consider it.
I the AGO chart and will definitely try to find a way in tomorrow.
I appreciate that.
I just took INPX on the cross. It seems like the first re-cross
after a high volume breakout might have some portent.
Thanks for this post.
I haven't yet considered using this array of indicators to find shorting opties.
BTW, I tried to reserve TRXC shares in pre-market to short an anticipated top during market hours; but, none were available.
I took a small position in MSADY near the close, based on the VTX cross and the extraordinary volume.
Nice on ZENO. I shouldn't have doubted.
HIIQ is VTX crossing. I'm in.
Looks like CMG will VTX cross today
TRXC had news on Friday after the bell and has a conference call on Tuesday morning.
I certainly wouldn't consider shorting it until sometime around the CC.
Tomorrow's volume will be big and there will be alotta churn.
Thanks for the opportunities to let me come to my own conclusions.
A trader has to develop his own conviction.
It's interesting that tomorrow's hot stock TRXC made the cross back in August.
Yes, I'm sure your right.
I looked at ZENO for about 5 minutes, after seeing your post.
How particular are you about the VTX > 1 ?
Is the cross good enuf for you?
I'm going to find out more about the company this weekend.
Nice.
I'm getting used to using your system for break-outs from consolidation.
Next, I'll figure out how to use it to time pullbacks.
Once again, thanks for explaining your technique.
KPAY is working well.
Today, I took a couple pilot positions using the technical insights gained from you.
I bought THS and KPAY
Let's see how it goes.
What a helpful perspective !
Thank you so much.
Thanks for your answer.
Have you back-tested to find out whether getting into the trade at VTX 22 tends to keep you in a profitable trend more often than using VTX 14?
Thanks for showing some of your process.
Why do you use VTX (22) instead of VTX (14)?
looking forward to your next call
I also appreciate the breadth of stocks that you look at.
I became an expat in 2011. When I returned to the U.S. in 2016, many cities smelled more like third worldliness than I could have ever imagined. Bring on the mystery street food, I guess.
Obama Blvd.
Hey DTC,
I just wanted to let you know that I traded AXGN profitably 3 or 4 times during its run-up. My respect for your grasp of the market helped me trade it with confidence. I just wish I would have held a large position as an investment.
Thanks,
Dan
SH, what is the source of this chart?
TIA
I know Art Berman is a controversial analyst.
But, I think of him as an independent thinker worth taking into consideration.
Here he is on the price of Natural Gas:
http://www.artberman.com/the-days-of-cheap-natural-gas-are-over/
Good to see you found satisfaction.
I think of you as one of a very interesting kind.
He's not even a poster anymore.
He deep-sixed his account.
Before that, he made a practice of quitting twitter whenever he was off his meds ( but, leaving his account up)
Here's wishing Putin would threaten to make Jerusalem a crater, if the U.S. lifted one more finger against the alawites.
Surehands, I want to thank you for your posts.
U R exceedingly helpful.
I just pulled a ladder of bids on U that I had sitting in that gap from last week.
If they break todays lows, there could be a more dramatic sell off