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Does anyone have the feeling this will explode upward next week? FTR, charts, candles whatever. Because I have sneaky suspicions it will explode from conference and data. No sellers Ahours moving up sharply from here. New period for ira 401k limits. Attractive entry point usually does not stagnate at these spikes down.
A lot of sidelined money might come back to AVXL news of data release any day. I expect pr released day of conference and results later that day.
Heck yea Load the boat. Smart move nice post.
Looks like a good entry or add point. There may be some sidelined money or retail to invest in ira or 401k at this price. Wow $1.28 pre split what could be better for the long term accumulators.
401k load zone for Y16 Roth IRA. If one is a long term investor this might be an excellent blood in the streets opportunity to load accounts. Yes agree exactly with your post.
Anytime there is a racketeering operation like organized illegal short selling the Feds can use the the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organization Act which was enacted to combat Organized Crime. Feds refer to the Russian Mob, US Mafia or any Organized Crime or conspiriacy organizations as RICOs. Includes forfieture of all assets as fruit of Criminal conspiracy. SHKRELI is going down hard for everything he has done illegal and they want him to testify against or give information leading to the others involved.
Real simple a subpeona is for business records or to call a witness to court or deposition to testify. If they were the target of the investigation it would have been a search warrant. In this case it was for business records for another investigation. Shkreli is under indictment they will want to try him on all charges together. There were unusual trading in AVXL stock at the time Shkreli was publicly announcing to short AVXL. Connect the dots. Follow the money. Were Shkreli's actions illegal and were they RICO connected? Shkreli may be the best hope of the feds to halt and deter Organized Criminal activities on Wall Street. Because he will squeel unlike Madoff. But after Madoff there were still 176 subsequent arrests for criminal activities on Wall St.
I stand corrected ira and roth have the 30 day rule as you pointed out. I use soloKs and 401k for which it seems 30 day rule does not apply. But everyone should check with ones own CPA or tax advisor. Thanks Amatuer17. My IRAs and Roth were already full of AVXL because I am in the stock for long term investment.
One Very Important Thing when trying to maximize tax losses one NEEDS TO specify the highest price purchase lots as the ones sold and also avoid the those held the longest (because want to perserve long term treatment) This is done within ones brokerage software or Gains Keeper or such Highest Price button or other Specification because if not elected IRS default elects FIFO which is the choice one whould make when minimizing taxable gains selecting oldest holdings.
SECOND IMPORTANT thing and this is pure opinion of my own. (one above is fact)
If buying back and thinking this is a long term investment that could skyrocket buy in a Roth Ira in a brokerage that allows margin in IRA for purposes of Day3 rule and trading on deposits. That way will eliminate future gains taxes.
I am long AVXL. I use all my Roth ceiling for it no room for another. And most IRAs and 401k. (These are also best for flipping if you do that because super tax bais on individial accounts which flipping gain will generate tax bills even If you are sustaining crushing paper losses. Flipping to lower ones cost basis is different story but should specify lots as in HighestPrice or FIFO very important.
Happy New Year Great Luck to All
Of course you are right. If the other account is a tax deferred account like IRA Roth iRA 401k SEP Simple any of those. As long as you do not buy in a taxable account there will not be a wash. If you buy in different taxable account it will need wash accounting. And different brokerage will not be able to do for you but Gains Keeper software can. But all these wash and tax gain/loss should be done for you but you can choose the rules to use for each specific trade ie. FIFO HIGHEST PRICE ect. chosen depending on if want to take gains this year or take more losses. FIFO best for stocks held for more than one year but need to go though trades to specify specific lots of the stock to claim were sold. Again a good software like Gains Keeper will make this easy and also be current with regulations. Also need good tax soft ware Turbo Tax links with Gains Keeper so what ever stock software you use make sure link to tax software.
I agree 100% too many near term catalysts that anyone of them could double + the price in a day or matter of days. AVXL is dynamite and the fuse is lit. This lawsuit is as ridiculous as the one leveled against c t I x.
I also agree a clearing of near term resistance at 5.80 is a buy signal as you stated in your other post. I think (hope) that the gap down at 7.05 is in play for next week on rebound momentum alone. What we saw this afternoon looked like the beginning of a powerful reversal on decent volume. The lawsuit bomb is over missed the target or was a dud. That was all played out this morning. I expect it will be voluntarily dismissed in due course. It fails to state a cause of action and has no factual basis. Just a rehash of weak fabrications and innuendos.
Most important thing is to pick the right one. One that could fulfill a huge unmet need that has a reasonably good chance of success and has great management. Then should resolve to see it through for many years and not give up if have a bad year or two. I am referring to Gilead. 100k invested 1Q1999 is now worth 15.7 mil no flipping necessary just bought and held. That $100k of GILD increased in value cool mil a yr on avg mostly in the later years like a snowball rolling down a mountain of wet snow. AVXL could be like that in 15 years.
Someone once said to build a million $ stock trading account is very simple just start with two mil and in about a year you will be there. With any small cap development stage biotech one must carefully choose. Given your background Doctor, I trust your judgment on AVXL especially because it confirms my own. The longer on holds the less significant the weekly monthly or even yearly become. So in the end it is not the offshore trading accounts manipulating the stock that matter but rather good stock selection and a conviction to stay invested until your original thesis is proved right or wrong which normally would be measured in years. My thesis has AVXL marketcap reaching one bil by 4Q16|1Q17 and five bil by 1Q19. Once we get to one bil the size will dampen abilities to manipulated and also attract inst investment and tier one analyst coverage. Shenanigans should then be largely dissipated.
To me AVXL is a long term growth investment not a trading vehicle although it is currently a vogue trading stock due to volitility. So I add whenever I have funds and try to get a good price the week or month I decide to add. Any trading I do is defensive to try to side step some of the worst dips. Then add back in tranches on the way back up.
Happy and healthy new year to All.
Two more down gaps to fill next week 1.50 $ up in one day or few days next week will be easy. Any positive affirmation will shoot it up to fill the down gap from $7.05. We want to be near the 50d MA when the results are released for the 12 weeks. Not too high could mute the response not too low or could dissipate the energy. (AVXL is dynamite treat it as such)
Todays action was for a follower of Japanese candle theory was about as strong of a reversal pattern there is. Should signal the start of a new powerful uptrend. I will be ad ding up as the price recovers. Buying dips for accumulation is good but for trading can be dangerous to always be trying to catch falling knives. For trading shares it seems to be higher wins by following trend and buying breakouts and reversals. It is also more fun and less nerve racking.
Happy New Year and GLTA.
We will see less RICO in the markets when we get new President whose administration sees market manipulation as the financial terrorism it is. This really Is a national security matter and I do not mean our company. These Mobs ancestors likely caused the 1929 crash by basically robbing all the banks and wealthy Investors at once. Never get rid of it. Shkeli Madoff Milken have all been linked to the same international RICOs. Madoff kept his mouth shut to keep his family from being murdered. Milken kept his mouth shut for 5 bill US $ and may be reactivated by the RICOs. Shkreli will likely sing to the Feds get to keep a few million and go Into witness protection. But will likely be eventually murdered. Source "Deep Capture: The Story of Denderon and the death of 90000" free online book. Good read includes all the likely suspects AF JC Madoff Milken and a few other favorites.
3 down gaps in 3 days might fill gap to 5.5 right today
Due for a relief rally. Not had 6 down days in a row in 6 months at least. I expect a fairly quick fill of the down gap from 7.
Rocketship into the close. Once shorts realize all the chicken littles that are going to sell sold. Then might be a last chance to cover short positions.
Maybe SEC was directed to subpeona to make sure AVXL clean before Govt grants Large funds for ALZ . Then no need partnership and AVXL shareholders get the whole value of the drug not split. Every dark cloud has a silver lining. Find it.
Hammer candle formed shows reversal so short term may be back to the top of the last black marabozu
Thanks for all your TA and charts Tom very helpful. Personally I use it especially Japanese candle patterns as they show ebb and flow of supply/demand. And are especially helpful in spotting reversals and topping patterns.
27000 ASK SLAP @ 6.77 IN 3 9000 share lots so up we go into close AH might be up after earning report. Look for slower burn rate as major catalyst.
Might be set up for AH run. If they give a development overview in earnings report or have news to disclose with it. 7am PRs are passe as swing and daytraders have been squeezing the life out of the momentum by selling at ever lower daily highs. Time to switch the pattern before the golden goose is killed.
Nothing happened. A positive catalyst can happen at anytime restoring momentum. The poster you responded to is a short troll. Two who responded to him were being facetious indicating they know what b posts is bull hockey and that it is short trolling. J is a swing trader that might currently be short. Swing traders have been selling lower highs and waiting for lower lows to buy back siphoning off momentum for short term gains while damaging their core positions. Shorts may feel the swing traders might surrender control as they weaken their core positions. A mid day SEC filing might burn shorts and traders while reestablishing momentum to the Longs.
When handling dynamite always assume it could blow up at anytime not that it will be a dud. The fuse is lit but we do not know when the next catalyst will come.
I am long and holding.
Merry Christmas and Peace to all.
I can not see near term neg. FA events. Many near term catalysts some of which may come as a pleasant surprise. Trades today seemed normal a little less day traders dump EOD. One big ask slap 15200 shares @$7.50 midday.
This is a comfortable position I will stick around.
Good luck to all
Peace!
Sorry meant ask slap 15200 one lot bought at ask 7.50. It was keeping lid on as big buys were filled in the 7.40s Xena I think you have good eye for bigs playbook bc you watch level II
Down went bigs playbook by the 15200 bid slap at 7.50 could sweep higher from here.
I hope we get a small advance tomorrow all above the 50d MA. I would like to put some distance away from last tuesday Black Marubozo. We need to ease away or we could get stuck on that trading range and break the wrong way. I was hoping we would break out of the ascending triangle but we are at the pinnicale now classically (when does it ever work out classically haha) too late for breakout but 8.40 or better should still do it. But better as you say little safe secure baby steps up to break beyond the dark Marubozo.
Tall White candle will be good as well but will lead to tricky volitility. Still a lot of weak hands also day traders and swingers who may over play both directions.
It does seem to me that it could break hard one way or the other being at the pinnicle of what is being perceived as a ascending triangle. A tame advance will resovle against that and refine the pattern (if there is really ever any patterns besides frolls clouds) into a ascending channel which is now what I think we have although we did just tiptoe over the 50d MA.
Since I am being cautious likely tricky Tuesday will be tall white candle without retreat that will continue on Wednesday. Ha ha.
It was written that periods of low volitility are followed by periods of high volitility. (Not saying It Is true just written ) However we may just find a new higher trading range.
That said I am in this for the FA not the TA and do not really trade it just adjust exposure levels with an eye to keep maximum exposure to the inevitable updrafts from FA catalysts.
Much respect and gratitude to the great posters here. Your individual efforts combine to lend strength to AVXL and the important mission it undertakes by keeping a long and strong Corps of believers supporting this company with investments.
PEACE ON EARTH AND GOOD LUCK TO ALL.
Good call my friend you make my list of trusted advisors. Great for our compatriates that sold calls instead of stock. Right on! Next focus Jan 15 @$10. But personally I would buy the Jan 15 @ $5 and sell the Jan $10s getting stock at a discount. Because the $5s do not have time premium and I put on a new load every month.
Thank you BooDog great post. Lets all concentrate in winning this battle we can sort through the truck loads of cash and professional accolades later.
Actually we have better than transcript we have a witness that was there. He can give you a better idea of the confidence and attitute with which those words were spoken. Bernardc whom I regard as a credible witness. You can go back and read his accounts of that day. Good stuff. Thank you Bernardc
AVXL had been chosen to be a stock to wash trade money for RICOs bc of volatility. Sckreli arrest will not change that. Your Govt is asleep at the wheel FED decision proves that. How stupid raise rates while rest of world is quant easing? Make dollar to strong so hurt exports? WTF do Ichan Eihorn and the other billionaire RICO connected hedges really weld that much power?
Paid an extra penny and got it all back from yesterday defensive sale . F dan ward and all other RICO connected f*cks
Yes Sckreli likely international money laundry for RICO same as MADOFF. He will squeal Madoff took life in prison to protect his innocent family. Sckreli is sociopath I hope he finds Jesus before he dies. But now he and many others are a hot target. Why is mob on wall street? Pigs are at the trouth when the money is green. For the sake of Justice I hope they will offer him witness protection program. Otherwise he will come out of prison a hardened Michael Milken and more wash rinse repeat of money laundering short seller. My God is our Govt. so inept? Game is easy they trade between long and short accounts under different alias and have captured brokers and hedge funds. This has been going on along time. Madoff was a fall guy and had family to protect. Pathetic Sckreli is not going to get a do over while Milken is the hard core corruptor. Wash rinse repeat. Send your protection money to Washington you F*cks.
Yes and I hope it will work out and be well tolorated in humans. We of course need more scientists and resources focused on this important indication. I was in Gilead when everyone was wringing their hands and saying HIV can not be cured. I hope these Korean scientists can find a business leader as adept and strong like Gilead had it their development stage Donald Rumsfeldt yes same guy who later became US Sec of Defense. Query this do you trust our CEO and the team he has put together? I do and I am all in.
Look at history of Gilead they were determined from the start with their scientists. When Rumsfeldt took over they pushed though to the objective like a @WolfWayne Airborne Ranger Battalion.
Go #AVXLarmy
Yet another Beta amyloid plaque reducer, Makes sense that they would take in this direction as this is where BP has been spending billions and failing. But thanks for the post I saw this already and discounted it as another "me too" amyloid plaque reducer. But we welcome and embrace all research in this very important endeavor. Hopefully they can make something of this. Our research has a completely different focus and method of efficacy.
Absolutely! BIG NAME BIG CLOUT BP. FDA approved manuf. already. Now that USPTO has decided we can move forward. AVXL is not so concerned with the money. Avanex is the disruptor, a new breed, anti-establishment, new thinkers and with a new optimistic laser focused mission. A company run by scientists. "We have no fear and we think differently" words of Dr. Missling spoken in Washington when asked why Avavex is succeeding where 99% fail. Coming up from BB stocks without major influx of cash from Wall Street gives these brilliant people the freedom to do what is right. ZERO Debt!!! Again ZERO DEBT!!! No Venture capitalist to pay back. Cash on the books to complete ongoing studies. Grant from Micheal J Fox Parkinson's Foundation. And as I have been saying for months AVXL will get funding from National Institutes of Health, I see that as fait accompili.
You understand that AVXL has been funded in the most part by the scientists themselves? They take no pay only expenses. They are the top in the world. They do this because it is their life's work. No amount of money could add or subtract from their mission. They are tackling a situation that has national interest at the heart of it. Medicare, DoD, the very solvency of the USA as well as the health of the worlds people.
We are different, we are not profit driven or beholden to hedge funds, IPO Investment banks or anyone. No Debt! Zero!
Just my well considered opinion but I only intend this to be preaching to the Choir. If you are new watch and learn hopefully you will be amazed.
Welcome WhiskeySausage the Big Dog from YMB. I used to read all your post there before I found iHub. I think you will find iHub to your liking we have a lot of long term all in investors, Neurologists, military Physicians who are Seeking Alpha Contributors, Airborne Rangers, patent experts, share count analysts, lawyers, new age philosophers, TA experts and an eclectic mix of brilliant people. Much like shooting craps at the Mirage.
Alas, I have forsaken YMB doth I become mired in anger and fits of rage at the stupidity of some posters. Here one can revel in the brilliance of one's fellow posters and enjoy the subtle humor that evolves from sharp minds. Well place ignored buttons help but trolls nary venture here for fear of the intellectual challenges quite above them.
Beyond all that we have a good time and support each other, recriminations are kept to a minimum.
Don't forget most Important of All Phase VI, the real reason we need BP. Phizer or other in the west Eisia in the East. However manufacturing and distribution are equally important. As Quallcom to chips AXVL to neuro-drugs, pure design company, no manufacturing, inventory or other headaches. Design, testing, research and innovation franchise. Fabless in the chip vernacular. OTC I doubt it. However I do believe the end market will be geometrically increased by new diagnostics to detect early stage ALZ thereby making a market for A2-73 plus or not as prophylaxis.
Resolution of Patent now means GO for BP Partnership. We did not need that patent. We may still get it but it is superfluous. This makes the terms of partnership and negotiation platforms much clearer. BP manufacturer will get a little more Dr.VAMVAKIDES royalties a little less. However all parties needed the input of the US Patent Office for clarification of the Intellectual Property. Now that it is out of the way the BP agreement can be inked very soon.
Confirmed Bullish Harami twins @ Pinnacle Ascending Triangle. Darn your good Etradeedge. Strongest bullish traditional TA pattern of ascending triangle is supported by confirmed Japanese candle Harami pattern which is now twin Harami near apex of ascending triangle. The Haramis should indicate the tests the eights tomorrow. This is more of what will happen next day indicator as are all Japanese candles. The ascending triangle is an intermediate trend indicator and much more powerful. Need two things for confirmation of the ascending triangle victory. Strong clean break of 8ish flat top on good volume and should ideally start at closer to the lower end of the channel and push through decisively like a WolfWayne Ranger Battalion. Most importantly should happen on no news or PR. This will be a very bullish confirmation and as you say should lead to new trading range in the $9s.
It will be interesting to see how this technical action stacks against defensive forces due to the open interest in $7.50 call options. Some traders want higher than $7.50 some want lower depending if they bought or sold the $7.50 calls. Expect increased volatility.
I will be buying because my intuition tells me the professional shorts hedged by buying $7.50 calls when they were cheap capitalizing on demoralized longs who may have sold them the $7.50 calls when they thought the stock was injured a few weeks ago and did not expect such a strong rebound.
It is only supposition but do not be surprised if we have a tall white candle day. 3 million shares held short, one would assume if they are professional traders they hedged by buying call options. Why not cover go long with proceeds and blow up the price and collect on the $7.50 calls. Get your stink buys on because action should be fast and furious.
Circa & IPman read it right. Implications are HUGELY Positive. Mikesic no need to send PM the technical language has been explained by Circa and IPman. However I have a difference of opinion from IPman as I see this as hugely positive and should lead to "Ink on Paper".
Why would AVXL patent attorneys seek approval for ANAVEX PLUS when prior "Art" taught Donezepil had similar actions to A2-73? Maybe AVXL had fiduciary responsibility to Dr. V to maximize the royalties due him. That would make it the responsibility of AVXL as assignee of the patent to make every effort to maximize it's value. Done. Filed for every possible permutation.
Negotiations between AVXL and partner would be expedited on firm knowledge of the parameters of the Intellectual Property. BP partner will now manufacture the Donezepil component and start the planning and execution of manufacture of A2-73. Nice that they have sales team in place to work with Neurologists, it is important even if Anavex Plus sells it's self. Need to have an organization to manage Phase VI.
Phizer already has FDA approved manufacturing for Arecept, are a premier manufacturer and have the scale needed for this potential blockbuster. Of course they have been in discussions but before the agreement could be signed the width and breath of the IP rights needed to be delineated. That could only be decided by US Patent Office. Done. So this is essentially the same for going forward as a granting would have been. Before they could decide the terms they needed to know who owns what. Do not be surprised to see a PR very soon announcing a BP partner (does not have to be Phizer) and commencement of the pivotal study.
Relax have a Phizzy cocktail, and ponder this: Who are these brilliant scientists and what is their life's work?