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GREE +.27 to 3.92, nice Q4 projections. Their earnings are somewhat tied to the price of bitcoin, but that's even higher now than in Q4. Seems like decent risk/reward at this price. I just picked up a few shares. Thanks for the alert.
NYCB (6.48) analyst commentary and downgrades ..... I think you're exceedingly pessimistic in thinking the stock is waaayyyy overpriced in the $6's. Maybe you are anticipating more big charge off's and being too dismissive of the long term potential for earnings to rebound given the book value of $10+.
fwiw, I averaged in yesterday at 6.65 and sold the Feb $7 calls for $0.42, so my cost basis is $6.23 and of course if my shares do not get assigned in 2 weeks for a 12% gain, I'll roll over the calls and work my cost basis down into the $5's. I'm comfortable with that.
fly -
New York Community Bancorp price target lowered to $8.50 from $13 at DA Davidson
DA Davidson lowered the firm's price target on New York Community Bancorp to $8.50 from $13 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q4 earnings miss. The company took decisive actions to strengthen capital ratios and allowance for credit losses, owing to further deterioration in the office & multi-family loan portfolios, and given the updated 2024 EPS guidance, the firm is slashing its 2024 and 2025 EPS estimates to $0.63 from $1.37) and to $0.74 from $1.55 respectively, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
08:25 EST NYCB
New York Community Bancorp downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Compass Point
Compass Point downgraded New York Community Bancorp to Neutral from Buy with an $8 price target.
08:12 EST NYCB
New York Community Bancorp price target lowered to $7 from $10.50 at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on New York Community Bancorp to $7 from $10.50 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares after the bank reported that it is taking action to adjust positioning on reserves, liquidity, and capital. The firm thinks two key factors drove these balance sheet actions during Q4: NYCB's new status as a Category IV Bank following their acquisition of Signature Bank from the FDIC and a much larger-than-expected increase in net charge offs during the quarter. The firm is decreasing its 2024 EPS estimate 54% and 2025 EPS view 55% to account for lower net interest income and higher expenses.
07:24 EST NYCB
New York Community Bancorp price target lowered to $7 from $11 at UBS
UBS analyst Brody Preston lowered the firm's price target on New York Community Bancorp to $7 from $11 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. New York Community Bancorp reported weak Q4 results, but earnings volatility combined with many moving pieces on the balance sheet, and a healthy level of investor skepticism surrounding the path of charge-offs is likely to keep a lid on multiples, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
06:23 EST NYCB
JPMorgan cuts New York Community target, says selloff overdone
JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on New York Community Bancorp to $11.50 from $14 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The analyst says the post-earnings selloff in the shares is overdone with the stock "poised to rebound materially. Alongside Q4 earnings, New York Community announced several strategic actions including bolstering its reserve levels and liquidity as well as actions to bolster capital as the company is headed to become a Category 4 bank, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While there is a notable step-down in earnings on tap for 2024, "as the quarters roll by in 2024 and 2025 starts to come into view, a much rosier picture should start to emerge," says JPMorgan.
05:04 EST NYCB
New York Community downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
RBC Capital downgraded New York Community Bancorp to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $7, down from $13. The bank's Q4 results had several negative surprises, including a higher than expected provision and reserve build, a meaningfully lower margin and outlook, and a dividend cut announcement, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The analyst believes many of these trends are related to the company crossing the $100B asset mark and becoming a Category IV financial institution, which is driving increased liquidity and compliance needs.
05:01 EST NYCB
New York Community Bancorp downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies
Jefferies downgraded New York Community Bancorp to Hold from Buy with a price target of $7, down from $13. The analyst cites the "unexpectedly faster" regulatory mandate to Cat IV bank compliance for the downgrade. The bank's actions taken thus far are a solid step forward, but impair profitability significantly given a need to run with higher capital, liquidity and reserves while trailing Cat IV peers modestly, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm expects New York Community's path to improved profitability will take years while credit risk remains an overhang.
Wade - GERN - maybe some investors doubt the company will get FDA approval in which case the stock will be trading under $1.
Will you be holding all your shares through the PDUFA date of 6/16 ?
Will you be holding all your shares through the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee open meeting on 3/14 ???
Wade - GERN -.17 to 1.84, just 3 days ago you called it a strong buy at $2.16, but now at $1.84 you think it's going to $1.50. Has the bad action changed your mind ???
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173719798
I think a 5% to 10% market correction would be healthy, but who knows whether Powell's press conference was cautious enough to make it happen - at least he squelched any unrealistic expectations for 6 rate cuts this year. I think that's out the window !
Market Briefing: Fed cools down some of the rate-cut fever
Fed Chair Powell's press conference began at 2:30 p.m. ET and concluded at 3:20 p.m. ET. It was 50 minutes of edge-of-your-seat listening, because market participants desperately wanted to hear Fed Chair Powell's thoughts on the policy setting.
If there was one comment by Fed Chair Powell that resonated for the market in this press conference, it was this:
"Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don't think it is likely that the Committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March at as the time to do that (cut rates), but that is to be seen. So, I wouldn't call it, you know -- when you ask me about in the near term, I am hearing that as March. I would say, I don't think that is -- it is probably not the most likely case, or what we would call the base case."
And there you have it. A month ago, the fed funds futures market placed an 88.5% probability on the first rate cut happening at the March meeting. That probability now sits at 37.5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, down from 56.4% just before the policy directive was released at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Now, the market was already having some doubts that there would be a rate cut in March, so the headline wasn't as shocking as it might have been otherwise. Still, the acknowledgment by the Fed chair that a rate cut at the March meeting is not the base case has understandably cooled off some of the rate-cut fever.
The May meeting is unmistakably the frontrunner for the first rate cut, with the probability of a 25-basis points cut sitting at 90.6%.
Accordingly, the market will have to be a little more patient, because the Fed believes it needs to be a little more patient with its inflation review. That was another unmistakable conclusion from the directive and Fed Chair Powell's comments.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.8%; the Russell 2000 and S&P 500 are down 1.4%; and the Nasdaq Composite is down 2.0%.
Market Briefing: Fed not lined up for a rate cut just yet
The FOMC voted unanimously to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as expected. It did so with a new rotation of Fed presidents voting in 2024: Bostic (Atlanta), Barkin (Richmond), Daly (San Francisco), and Mester (Cleveland).
Notwithstanding the new representation, there was nothing surprising in that vote, and, we would argue, in a directive that implied the Fed isn't ready to cut rates just yet.
There was some hope that the directive might be more explicit in signaling a near-term, rate-cut move, but it wasn't. Instead, the directive declared that, "The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent."
What this implies is that the Fed isn't predisposed at this point to cut rates in March, and it may not be predisposed to cut rates in May. It needs to see more data to determine if there is going to be a change in policy course.
We say that isn't surprising because various Fed officials noted in recent weeks that they think the Fed can proceed carefully before cutting rates. To be sure, Fed Chair Powell has been clear that the Fed doesn't want to repeat the mistake of the 1970s and cut rates too soon, only to see inflation rev up again.
Separately, there wasn't any indication either that the Fed is going to curtail its quantitative tightening activity. Its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities will continue to be reduced in accordance with its previously announced plans.
The market will now wait even more anxiously to hear what Fed Chair Powell has to say at his press conference, which begins at 2:30 p.m. ET. What it saw in the directive, though, implied the Fed wants to stay the policy course since it isn't convinced yet the inflation risk has been sufficiently tamed.
The 2-yr note yield, at 4.23% before the release, is at 4.26% now. The 10-yr note yield, at 3.96% before the directive, is at 3.97% now. The probability of a 25-basis points cut at the March meeting was 56.4% just before the directive was released. It is at 45.2% now, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.2%; the Russell 2000 is down 0.7%; the S&P 500 is down 1.0%; and the Nasdaq Composite is down 1.5%.
GERN -.09 to 1.92, weak recently. Is there any bad news out or is it just sliding lower with the broader market ?
NYCB - thanks, I didn't see the presentation.
NYCB - why do you think NIMs are going to fall to 2.45% for 2024 from 2.82% in Q4 ? Also Q4 may have been a kitchen sink quarter. Charge-offs should be much lower in Q1.
PR -
Net charge-offs totaled $185 million for the three months ended December 31, 2023, compared with $24 million for the three months ended September 30, 2023. Net charge-offs on a non-annualized basis represented 0.22% and 0.03% of average loans outstanding for the three months ended December 31, 2023 and for the three months ended September 30, 2023, respectively.
Fourth quarter net charge-offs were primarily related to two loans. First, we had one co-op loan with a unique feature that pre-funded capital expenditures. Although the borrower was not in default, the loan was transferred to held for sale during the fourth quarter. We expect the loan to be sold during the first quarter of 2024. We also performed a review of other co-op loans and did not find any other loans with similar characteristics.
Second, we had an additional charge-off on an office loan that went non-accrual during the third quarter, based on an updated valuation. Given the impact of recent credit deterioration within the office portfolio, we determined it prudent to increase the ACL coverage ratio.
Together, these two loans accounted for the bulk of the $185 million of net charge-offs we took during the fourth quarter.
NYCB -3.72 to 6.66, very volatile on huge volume as investors try to figure out what fair value is after the surprise charge off .... anyone who was lucky enough to buy at the morning low of $5.58 and sell 90 minutes later at $7.18 booked a quick 28% gain ....
TBV was reported at $10.06, so it's now at a deep discount to book value. Your EPS estimate for 2024 seems rather pessimistic. I'm curious to see what the pending analyst revisions look like.
NYCB -3.94 to 6.44, after reporting a Q4 loss - nice call on this one, although I think the selloff is overdone and picked up a few shares this morning. Speculative. Maybe there are other skeletons in the closet ?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-york-community-bancorp-stock-slides-as-it-cuts-dividend-posts-surprise-loss-785f285f
S&P 500 forward PE is currently 22.1, but the median PE is just 17.2, quite a large difference. There are still plenty of low PE stocks available.
What recession ?
GDP grew 3.1% in 2023, way ahead of expectations -
https://www.wsj.com/economy/gdp-us-economy-fourth-quarter-2023-9fc372f0?st=4hmfam5vb6swdc1&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
MSFT, GOOG and AMD all down from 2% to 7% after hours after reporting earnings ..... maybe we're finally going to get a market correction ?
Tomorrow will be interesting !
I own both ESOA and GEOS - they're both attractive. Why would I want to own just one ? Diversification is a fundamental tenet of investing.
GM +2.87 to 38.26 after posting strong Q4 results and issuing 2024 guidance way above estimates. GM is one of the cheapest stocks in the S&P500 with a forward PE of 4.2 based on the midpoint of guidance. I own a small position. At the very least it should be a good trader in the coming year and I'll be trading around my core position.
briefing -
General Motors beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS above consensus (35.39 ) :
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.24 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.16; revenues fell 0.3% year/year to $42.98 bln vs the $38.81 bln FactSet Consensus.
EBIT-adjusted of $1.76 bln.
Automotive operating cash flow of $1.3 bln.
Co issues upside guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $8.50-$9.50 vs. $7.75 FactSet Consensus. Sees EBIT-adj of $12-$14 bln and Adj. Auto free cash flow of $8-$10 bln. Expects Market share gains primarily from higher EV penetration driving revenue growth.
General Motors comments from Q4 conference call (35.39 ) :
Wants to reduce shares outstanding to fewer than 1 bln.
EV production will be guided by customer demand.
Pace of EV growth has slowed, creating some uncertainty.
Will build to demand, encouraged by third party EV forecasts.
Chevy Blazer and Cadillac LYRIQ will qualify for full $7500 consumer credit.
Seeing some cost savings on simplicity. Expecting cost savings from model simplification to be about $200 mln.
Expecting 2024 capital spending of $10.5-$11.5 bln.
Have begun to implement changes to Cruise.
Spending on Cruise will be down "considerably" this year.
Working on new timeline for Cruise.
Plans to bring plug-in hybrids to select vehicles in North America; remains committed to eliminating tail pipe emissions from light duty vehicles by 2035.
Seeing an improvement in Cell costs driven by significantly lower raw materials prices.
Mgmt says GM is well positioned for a year of strong financial performance.
Expect 2024 sales of 16 million units.
GTEC -.02 to 3.32, good news. Let's hope it translates into increased sales.
AAOI +1.05 to 17.01 in pre-market after Rosenblatt initiates coverage -
fly -
Applied Optoelectronics initiated with a Buy at Rosenblatt
Rosenblatt initiated coverage of Applied Optoelectronics with a Buy rating and $23 price target. Revenues were "fairly flat" from 2020 to 2023, but sales are "poised to explode to the upside" starting mid-2024, driven by AI 400+G Optical interconnects for Data Centers and DOCSIS 4.0 amplifiers for Cable networks, the analyst tells investors. The AI 800+G Optical transceiver market is forecast to be $7.5B in 2025 and the total high-speed Datacom transceiver market could be worth about $12B and given the firm's view that Applied could potentially capture 10%-plus share of the total, the analyst says the firm's $485M revenue forecast for 2025 "may be conservative."
SMCI surging 10% higher after hours after another big earnings beat and raised guidance. Congrats to those who still own this stock !
briefing -
Super Micro Computer beats by $0.54, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; raises FY24 revs guidance above consensus (495.67 +21.52)
Reports Q2 (Dec) earnings of $5.59 per share, $0.54 better than the FactSet Consensus of $5.05; revenues rose 103.0% year/year to $3.66 bln vs the $2.8 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues upside guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $5.20-$6.01 vs. $4.61 FactSet Consensus; sees Q3 revs of $3.70-$4.1 bln vs. $2.91 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co raises guidance for FY24, sees FY24 revs of $14.3-$14.7 bln vs. $11.34 bln FactSet Consensus, up from prior guidance of $10-$11 bln.
S&P500 forward PE is being skewed higher by the Mag 7. The S&P 493 forward PE is something like 18 and the S&P600 forward PE is something like 13, rather cheap.
I'm focused on investing in undervalued individual stocks, not the high PE megacaps. It's just a guessing game when they'll finally correct.
https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/how-attractive-are-us-small-cap-stocks.html
BOIL -2.52 to 21.88, another all time low .... NG looks oversold and to avoid the K-1's, futures trading is a great alternative - I added to my futures position today.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173273585&txt2find=boil
S&P500 +37 to 4928, smashing through 4900 after favorable news from the Treasury -
briefing -
Market Briefing: Stocks and bonds like Treasury Department's Q1 borrowing estimate
Stocks popped to new session highs as Treasury yields moved to new session lows a short time ago, responding favorably to the Treasury Department's first quarter borrowing estimate.
Specifically, the Treasury Department anticipates borrowing $760 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, which is $55 billion lower than announced in October 2023. For the second quarter, the Treasury Department is estimating a $202 billion borrowing need.
Market participants -- and perhaps even some bond vigilantes -- are liking the lower-than-previously projected first quarter estimate. On Wednesday, the refunding announcement will carry details on where the debt issuance will occur along the curve (i.e., short end, belly, or long end of the curve).
The 2-yr note yield touched 4.30% following today's announcement and the 10-yr note yield dropped to 4.06%. They are now at 4.31% and 4.07%, respectively. The S&P 500 (+0.6%) for its part spiked to a new all-time high of 4,918.36 and sits a hair below that level now.
ESOA +.94 to 8.02 on volume of 569k, the heaviest in 2 years ..... evidently it's gotten onto the radar of traders for whatever reason. I'm still holding but will be out ahead of the Dec Q1 earnings in mid Feb.
CBBI -.08 to 9.92, I joined you in this bank ..... it's super cheap and has buyout potential at a sizable premium or a sharp increase in price if they uplist to the Nasdaq.
PSIX +.10 to 2.10, I joined you with a few shares this morning ..... but it's so cheap it makes me wonder if the numbers are sustainable. The suffered a big loss in 2021 and then a decent profit in 2022 on sharply higher gross margins and reduced expenses. That trend continues through 9 mos of 2024. I'll be interested to see the Q4 results. Glad they're filing 10K's and Q's.
GTLS +4 to 114, has been hammered lately, down from 130 last week, after the Biden administration announced a freeze on further LNG project approvals. However the company reiterated it's medium term guidance.
I added a few shares this morning.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/biden-pauses-approvals-for-lng-exports-3d065745?st=nms4hw37xozcnpj&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19604135-chart-industries-reiterates-medium-term-financial-targets
XLK annual returns compared to the S&P 500 since 2004 ..... it's been a good ETF to dollar cost average into each month and not pay capital gains taxes until you sell (except for minor annual distributions that occur) - almost as effective as an IRA in deferring taxes if one holds XLK continuously for many years or even decades.
XLK $SPX
Year Year End Price % Change Year End Price % Change Outperformance
2003 20.09 1111.92
2004 21.11 5.1% 1211.92 9.0% -3.6%
2005 20.90 -1.0% 1248.29 3.0% -3.9%
2006 23.26 11.3% 1418.30 13.6% -2.0%
2007 26.66 14.6% 1468.36 3.5% 10.7%
2008 15.41 -42.2% 903.25 -38.5% -6.0%
2009 22.93 48.8% 1115.10 23.5% 20.5%
2010 25.19 9.9% 1257.64 12.8% -2.6%
2011 25.45 1.0% 1257.60 0.0% 1.0%
2012 28.85 13.4% 1426.19 13.4% 0.0%
2013 35.74 23.9% 1848.36 29.6% -4.4%
2014 41.35 15.7% 2058.90 11.4% 3.9%
2015 42.83 3.6% 2043.94 -0.7% 4.3%
2016 48.36 12.9% 2238.83 9.5% 3.1%
2017 63.95 32.2% 2673.61 19.4% 10.7%
2018 61.98 -3.1% 2506.85 -6.2% 3.4%
2019 91.67 47.9% 3230.78 28.9% 14.8%
2020 130.02 41.8% 3756.07 16.3% 22.0%
2021 173.87 33.7% 4766.18 26.9% 5.4%
2022 124.44 -28.4% 3839.50 -19.4% -11.2%
2023 192.48 54.7% 4769.83 24.2% 24.5%
2024 YTD 201.75 4.8% 4890.97 2.5% 2.2%
Aggregate 904.2% 339.9% 128.3%
https://www.sectorspdrs.com/sectortracker
XLK (technology) has been by far the best performing of the nine S&P sector spiders over the past 20 years - dividends are not included, but only XLU (utilities) has a significant yield.
PRICE CHANGE SINCE 12/31/2003
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
XLK 904% 201.75 20.09
XLY 445% 171.68 31.49
XLV 365% 139.27 29.96
$SPX 340% 4890.97 1111.92
XLI 324% 113.43 26.76
XLP 233% 72.63 21.78
XLE 215% 84.25 26.75
XLB 209% 82.51 26.69
XLU 162% 61.21 23.33
XLF 69% 38.65 22.84
XLC 54% 77.68 50.58
XLRE 28% 38.49 30.16
AVERAGE RETURN = 279%
OPTT (0.30) - I owned this stock over a decade ago. Ocean Power Technologies designs and produces electricity generating buoys that convert the power of ocean waves into energy. Seemed like a great idea. It works but economically it's too inefficient to be viable. They've had the equivalent of a 1 for 200 reverse split over the past decade or so and constantly issue new shares to raise capital. Management and the BoD are well paid for accomplishing nothing.
For the past few months I've been short a tiny position of OPTT. IB allows the shorting of penny stocks. Now I'm making a profit on the short side, although it's just lunch money.
PGNT is a 5% shareholder, but I fail to see how they can make any money off the technology. Maybe they just want to liquidate the assets. They've issued scathing criticism of management's track record. We'll see how it plays out.
YTD Index Performance ..... small and microcaps are back to underperforming .... even the S&P Equal Weight is down slightly YTD.
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$NYFANG 6% 9232.96 8716.33
$NDX 4% 17516.99 16825.93
$RLG 4% 3176.17 3051.68
$COMP 3% 15510.5 15011.35
$SPX 3% 4894.16 4769.83
$DJI 1% 38049.13 37689.54
$DJT 0% 15952.78 15898.85
$RLV 0% 1632.75 1629.42
$SPXEW 0% 6385.7 6402.89
$MID -1% 2759.99 2781.54
$W5KMICRO-2% 13092.93 13358.71
$SML -2% 1287.85 1318.26
$RUMIC -3% 712.61 731.01
$RUT -3% 1975.88 2027.07
$DJU -4% 848.6 881.67
ARKK is Cathie Woods' ETF ..... it has been a very poor performer recently and over the long term. She had a great year in 2020, but otherwise has been underperforming the broader market badly. For the trailing 5 year period her fund is roughly unchanged while the S&P500 has nearly doubled. Check the long term chart.
ARK Innovation posted a negative 11.6% total return this year so far, says Morningstar Direct. That makes it the fourth worst-performing actively traded U.S. diversified ETF this year.
https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-cathie-woods-fund-suffers-473-million-hit-from-2-ugly-stocks/?utm_source=newsshowcase&utm_medium=gnews&utm_campaign=CDAqEAgAKgcICjDOm4YLMJD1gwMwhObvAQ&utm_content=rundown&gaa_at=g&gaa_n=AZsHK_mxZvWDyTyonFlGKNeW4rBMNyjcIGZifDA2otrFh2R6O85GcFSMZaQFUnziCv6vsRS_vOO1p7dSLd1sQqioBfq78KqzydjPHpE%3D&gaa_ts=65b3f352&gaa_sig=9qE_rpSfQeiUnhvJd43ARhg0qed5t_UDcLAj9KTiLM-hT7NZLSpgcIkqiSKQAMYQ3EAH9MbnAJIc0Vje8yBdhg%3D%3D
Wade - if you bet on the wrong direction for intraday stock moves 90% of the time, then that's an excellent contrary record and easy to fix. You simply have to be disciplined and do the opposite of what your intuition tells you to do. Then you'll be right 90% of the time.
TSLA - this WSJ article might interest you -
Even after a 16% fall so far this year, its stock trades at 56 times forward earnings, compared with 29 times for its AI chip supplier Nvidia.
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-makes-it-harder-for-investors-to-ignore-its-problems-511a2c40?st=7kkqjeupsfunjzv&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
AAOI -.40 to 16.19, won't be reporting until late February. Last year it was on Feb 23rd. Annual reports are audited and therefore come out later than quarterly reports.
IBM +18 to 192, a great day for "big blue".
briefing -
IBM beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line; guides to FY24 CC revs growth in mid-single digits (173.97 +0.04) :
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $3.87 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 better than the FactSet Consensus of $3.79; revenues rose 4.1% year/year to $17.38 bln vs the $17.29 bln FactSet Consensus.
Software segment revs rose 3.1% yr/yr (+2.0% CC) to $7.5 bln.
Hybrid Platform & Solutions up 2% (+1% CC); Red Hat up 8% (+7% CC); Automation up 1% (flat CC); Data & AI up 1%; Security down -5% (-6?).
Transaction Processing up 5% (+4% CC).
Consulting segment revenue rose 5.8% yr/yr (+5.5% CC) to $5.0 bln.
Business Transformation up 6 percent, up 5 percent at constant currency.
Technology Consulting up 5 percent, up 4 percent at constant currency.
Application Operations up 7 percent, up 6 percent at constant currency.
Infrastructure segment revenue rose 2.7% yr/yr (+2.0% CC) to $4.6 bln.
Hybrid Infrastructure up 8 percent, up 7 percent at constant currency.
IBM zSystems up 8 percent -- Distributed Infrastructure up 8 percent, up 7 percent at constant currency.
Infrastructure Support down 9 percent.
2024 Outlook: Co expects constant currency revenue growth consistent with its mid-single digit model. Currency is expected to be about a one-point headwind to revenue growth.
Co guides to FY24 FCF about $12 bln.
CNXC -15 to 88, looks oversold. Nov Q4 earnings beat estimates, but guidance for Q1 and 2024 was mildly disappointing. It's now trading at a forward PE of merely 7.3 based on FY24 adj EPS guidance of $12.10 midpoint. For FY23 they posted adj EPS of 11.45. Concentrix is a business services company.
briefing -
Concentrix beats by $0.29, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus (103.90 -0.54) :
Reports Q4 (Nov) earnings of $3.36 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.29 better than the FactSet Consensus of $3.07; revenues rose 36.0% year/year to $2.23 bln vs the $2.2 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues downside guidance for Q1 (Feb), sees EPS of $2.51-2.65, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $3.17 FactSet Consensus; sees Q1 revs of $2.360-2.406 bln vs. $2.45 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues downside guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $11.69-12.50, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $12.81 FactSet Consensus; sees FY24 revs of $9.51-9.70 bln vs. $9.8 bln FactSet Consensus.
For chart technicians, there's a notable gap in the low $80's from back in November that might get filled ....
I picked up a small starter position this morning.
https://ir.concentrix.com/news-releases/news-release-details/concentrix-reports-fiscal-2023-fourth-quarter-and-full-year
TSLA -22 to 185, the chart looks bearish according to this article - it may hit $150 or lower in the coming months - maybe that would be a better time to buy ?
Tesla Stock Will Head Lower From Here. The Charts Don't Lie. -- Barrons.com
(Dow Jones 01/25 10:33:32)
Al Root
Tesla stock is falling after the company posted disappointing quarterly
earnings and hosted an equally disappointing earnings conference call.
Investors are likely wondering where the stock will go next. For some
guidance, they can forget fundamentals and look at stock charts.
Market technicians and traders look at chart patterns to get a sense of
where any stock can go over the short and medium term. Charts have a way of
aggregating all the opinions of market players and can be useful for any
investor -- be they a bull or bear -- looking to overcome innate biases.
The setup is grim. Tesla stock was down 8.6% in premarket trading
Thursday, below $190 a share, after the company reported fourth-quarter
earnings of 71 cents a share. Wall Street was looking for 73 cents a share.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite futures were up 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.
"Tesla's key support near $208 is going to be sliced through today," said
Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton. "But we usually let gaps down
settle and watch the next few days of trading before judging the magnitude
of the breakdown."
If Tesla stock closes below $208 for two consecutive Fridays then it is
headed toward $177, she says.
But Stockton does have some heartening advice. Don't "sell into weakness,
if you own Tesla," Stockton adds. "See if it can get back into the gap for a
better exit."
A significant drop, or rise, all at once is called "gapping down," or
"gapping up" in Wall Street parlance. Stocks that gap down tend to get back
some of the initial drop. That can happen with Tesla too, but that is
trading advice from Stockton, not investing advice.
The "$200 is the key level for Tesla and as long as the stock is under
there, price action and technical indicators will be challenged and biased
lower," adds 22V Research senior managing director John Roque. He is a
little more bearish than Stockton and says Tesla stock could eventually
retest the levels near $100 seen in early 2023.
That isn't what shareholders want to hear, but the charts don't lie. Of
course, things don't have to turn out that way. Demand, interest rates, and
investors' moods are all dynamic. Still, investors should brace for Tesla
stock to drift lower in the coming weeks.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones &
Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The
Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 25, 2024 10:33 ET (15:33 GMT)
TSLA -19 to 188, facing a lot of headwinds, especially strong competition in China from BYD and sagging demand growth in the US and Europe. It's a great company, but the valuation may still be too rich at roughly 50x analyst 2024 EPS estimates.
Analyst commentary from fly -
Tesla downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at KGI Securities
KGI Securities downgraded Tesla to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $213, down from $309. The company's Q4 earnings slightly missed estimates with gross margin down quarter-over-quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says the shares "lack near term catalysts" but that it sees "bargain hunting opportunities" in the next three quarters. KGI believes Tesla's research and development investments and ramp up of next-generation vehicles could weigh on its gross margin recovery before the second half of 2025.
Tesla price target lowered to $270 from $310 at Mizuho
Mizuho lowered the firm's price target on Tesla to $270 from $310 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following last night's results. While Tesla did not guide 2024 volumes, it noted vehicle volume growth for the year may be notably lower than 2023, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm continues to see Tesla as a global leader in electric vehicles but says 2024 could be a more challenging year with subsidy cuts and a stretched consumer.
2024 will be challenging year for Tesla, 2025 likely not better, says Bernstein
Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi notes Tesla slightly missed consensus revenues, operating margins and EPS, but free cash flow was well above expectations. More sobering was Tesla's outlook. Tesla stated that unit growth would be "notably below" this year's rate, Bernstein points out, adding that it also did not provide guidance on auto gross margins, other than it was approaching the "limits" of cost reductions on existing vehicles, and that cost improvement in 2024 would be lower than 2023. The firm continues to believe that Tesla will need to lower price and experience lower margins to drive incremental volume above last year's 1.8M level. While 2024 will be a challenging year, it is becoming "increasingly apparent that 2025 will likely not be better," with continued pressure on growth and margins, Bernstein adds. The firm has an Underperform rating on the shares with a price target of $150.
Tesla price target lowered to $200 from $223 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo lowered the firm's price target on Tesla to $200 from $223 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares following quarterly results. The firm notes Tesla is trading down post market after cautious 2024 commentary. The company sees slowing delivery growth and a more limited ability to cut COGS. With recent pricing cut, margins likely fall in 2024, Wells adds.
Tesla seeing 'weak' growth until next-gen car comes in FY25, says Roth MKM
Roth MKM keeps a Neutral rating and $85 price target on Tesla after its "weak" Q4 results and the sixth sequential quarter of adjusted auto gross margin declines. Tesla management is now leaning on a next-gen vehicle to re-initiate growth in FY25 where the new modular manufacturing approach broadly elevates platform execution risk, and the firm sees multiple compression amid headwinds from sales mix and price cuts that likely stay negative, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Roth MKM maintains its view that Tesla shares are "egregiously overvalued".
Tesla price target lowered to $315 from $350 at Wedbush
Wedbush lowered the firm's price target on Tesla to $315 from $350 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares following quarterly results. The firm says it was "dead wrong expecting Musk and team to step up like adults in the room on the call and give a strategic and financial overview of the ongoing price cuts, margin structure, and fluctuating demand... instead we got a high-level Tesla long term view with another train wreck conference call." Nonetheless, Wedbush says the long term story is intact for Tesla and that it truly believes EV adoption to a much broader mass market is around the corner with AI/FSD the future. However, the near-term "Category 4 hurricane" around price cuts and lack of granularity, guidance, and communication from Musk and Tesla is "a bitter pill to swallow for the bulls."
TSLA -1 to 208, might report "better than feared" numbers according to this earnings preview -
briefing -
Tesla earnings preview -- Stock can regain its charge with better-than-expected report, but price cuts and ramp of Cybertruck could further pressure margins (209.11 -0.03)
After the close, Tesla (TSLA) is scheduled to report Q4 earnings with a conference call set to follow at 5:30 p.m. ET. The electric vehicle maker's earnings report is expected to be posted on the Investor Relations page of its website at about 4:05 p.m., followed soon thereafter by a press release.
The FactSet consensus estimates for EPS and revenue are $0.73 and $25.6 bln, respectively.
TSLA is coming off one of its worst earnings reports in recent history, missing EPS and revenue expectations for the first time since 2Q19. The main culprit continues to be TSLA's eroding margins as the company looks to keep demand healthy in a high interest rate environment by cutting prices.
In Q3, gross margin dipped by 30 bps qtr/qtr to 17.9%, while operating expenses jumped by 43% as TSLA ramped up investments in AI and full self-driving technologies and poured capital into the December launch of Cybertruck. Planned factory shutdowns were another factor, causing manufacturing efficiencies to decrease.
Gross margin and automotive gross margin will once again be front-and-center for tonight's earnings report. On the plus side, factory utilization should be higher in Q4, driving stronger efficiencies, while supply chain costs also improve. However, further price cuts and the launch of Cybertruck will counteract those tailwinds.
Labor costs are another item to keep an eye on. In December, union strikes in Sweden and Denmark struck TSLA, potentially leading to a less favorable collective bargaining agreement for the company.
On January 2, TSLA reported strong Q4 deliveries of 484K vehicles (+20%), edging past analysts' expectations. The outperformance was likely aided by a boost in orders ahead of the new year due to TSLA losing the $7,500 federal tax credit for 2024. In order to qualify for the EV tax credit, the manufacturer must not source any battery components that are manufactured or assembled by a foreign entity of concern, including entities owned or controlled by the governments of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. It appears that TSLA did not meet that criteria.
In the shareholder deck, TSLA will likely provide production and delivery guidance for 2024. Last year, TSLA said that it expected to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 mln cars for the year. The company reached that goal, achieving total deliveries of 1,808,581 for 2023.
Last quarter, Elon Musk was a little more cautious about TSLA's production growth moving forward, stating that it's impossible to sustain a compound growth of 50% forever.
An area where Musk is expected to be quite exuberant about is AI and Dojo, TSLA's supercomputer that will power its full self-driving technology. Musk has proclaimed that Dojo and FSD will ultimately make the company's current financial metrics "look silly", but offered no timeline for when that may occur.
On December 1, the highly anticipated Cybertruck launch took place, but it didn't live up to the hype as TSLA disclosed that its most affordable version (which costs about $61K) won't be available until 2025. That starting price also happens to be about $20K more than TSLA had forecasted. Nonetheless, commentary regarding orders and production targets for Cybertruck will be of interest. TSLA has previously stated that its annual production target for Cybertruck is 250K.
Lastly, the stock has been stuck in reverse so far in 2024, falling by about 16% year-to-date, reflecting muted expectations and potentially setting the stock up for a rebound on a better-than-feared report. (PVIEW)
TSLA +1 to 210, reports after the bell ..... the weakest of the Mag 7 might disappoint on margin guidance. We'll see what happens. Options imply a 7% move tomorrow.
TSLA was $400+ just over 2 years ago.