GERN($2.16) a speculative strong buy
I have touted this stock since around $2.80, and down to $1.75 a couple months ago. I have the stock in Wadegarret portfolio, with an average buy now of around $2.40. However my position has gone from 20K shares to 80K shares. Why ? Because their drug Imetelstat is one of only two drugs out their to treat a leukemia called MDS. Brystol Myers is the only other company that has a major drug on the market for this. GERN is awaiting FDA approval, and expected to hear on June 10, 2024. The thing I like so much about Imetelstat vs Reblozyl, is that it treats 100% of MDS patients, while Reblozyl only treats 25%. This is because there are two major cells types of MDS. One is MDS with ringed sideroblasts, the other unringed.. Unringed represents 75%, and ringed 25% of all MDS. Imetelstat treats both ringed and unringed MDS cell types, while Reblozyl only ringed. So Imetelstat has the potential to treat 4 times as many MDS patients as Reblozyl. As far as effetiveness, the two drugs are close, but Imetelstat wins out IMO.
Now onlookers would say, if the drug has so much potential, why has the stock price gone from $3.75 a year ago to $2.16 today ? To that, I have no idea, except that Institutional investment keeps rising, and was a record 68% as of the Sept 2023 qtr. If I had to guess, for one, the entire biotech sector has been in the dumper, and two, there would be be good reason for GERN to be kept down by powerful players that might want to buy the company out. Either way, I have continued to buy, and my average price is around $2.40, so down around 10% at this point. I believe GERN will creep up as they get closer to the FDA announcement, and especially if the patients that responded positively to Imetelstat in phase 3, continue to be transfusion independent.
