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Yes Growth but also notice the following: Teva (Israel) makes the generic version Doneprizil (Pfizer makes the brand Aricept) ... These are the two strategic potential buyers (Teva and Pfizer) .... and competition is very good when selling something... AVXL has contacts with Israel pharma already with Dr. Abraham Fisher on the AVXL SAB and who led development of Anavex 371 in Israel.. I expect these two companies will be the front runners to buy or partner with AVXL--- ON PAPER.... "On paper" because, there are many many pharma companies that both move very fast (faster than Pfizer and Teva) , trust their own internal analysis (i.e. do not need wall street confirmation) and have the funding in place.. and many in this last category are from outside of here in America.....Japan has about 5 companies alone meeting these parameters and Japan also has the most severe aging demographic. Example is Otsuka Holdings buying Avanir this year for 3.5 Billion (a partial Sigma 1 receptor co) .... Then you have the likes of US companies like Gilead, Celgene, etc adding likely another 10 USA companies capable and in this fast moving side from US ....Then another 10 from Europe also in this fast moving group, not to mention the contacts AVXL already has with several European pharma companies through its SAB and direct dealings....So summing up, I see two front runners (who stand the most to gain through synergy) and then globally and from US, about 25 additional fast mover pharma cos who will be looking under the hood of AVXL... To my thinking it is a toss up if a deal will go with one of the two front runners or the 25 or so other companies who will be considering AVXL...Remember competition is very very good for shareholders of AVXL...
Also, do not fall for the soft bashing here and other MB;s that the results are "not good" .....the results are fantastic....in fact almost anything better than the SOC is fantastic...and do not get boggled down in seemingly sincere posters who throw out negative labels describing results with phrases like "not good"... Remember they are still trying for a "wash out" Monday and following days...I do not care either way much (except hate to see innocent retail raped by crooks with no morals) , but think without manipulation the price would triple Monday...With manipulation I am not sure in the short term, but in the longer term fair value will richly reward...GLTA retail and pros with morals...
I said it a while back on here, that the big manipulation would be at the time of news, and my reasoning then was that big money will want in (financial cos and maybe BP) , but they will wait until after the PR, to take advantage of further de-risking ... but not only do they want de-risking but they want cheap prices, IMO this is the big story here but of coarse you can layer on tons of other noise by rogue independent short sellers (who do not even know the big picture) who jump on the band wagon of bashing.... so its pretty much exactly as I predicted except I thought it would start the day after and not the day before Nov7......
Manipulation at its finest...short term the market is a voting machine..long term the market is a weighing machine........ manipulation should be substituted for voting...
This is a fade strategy meant to instil fear and doubt ... one of the most potent tools in a manipulators toolbox.....
Can you read a doctors writing for prescriptions...well this gives you a clue in the abstract...writen from a doctor for doctors...IMO Frol has it wrong...JMHO
Diamond , pre President Clinton era, there was a "must short on an up tick" rule in place....In his time the rule was eliminated for some reason... Maybe govt needs to look at bringing the uptick rule back...under it you still can short but not to the damaging level of the current status of no price control ... IMO this would greatly eliminate the manipulation in healthcare stock prices...
top level shorters (leaders of the bash) will get out and cover by Friday...low level shorters (the followers that jump on coat tails) will all get burnt....watch...
An association fallacy is an inductive informal fallacy of the type hasty generalization or red herring which asserts that qualities of one thing are inherently qualities of another, merely by an irrelevant association. The two types are sometimes referred to as guilt by association and honor by association. Association fallacies are a special case of red herring, and can be based on an appeal to emotion.[citation needed]
Look up the fallacy "guilt by association" and you will learn something about Logic.....Ward only was able to prove that the long gone employee had in the past been working for several small micro-cap companies that failed...Failed and that is it....and most of them were oil and gas or resource mic-rocaps....now think for a minute...how many micro-cps succeed on the orc ..maybe 1 in 15 at best....and how many resource plays ..I would say less even......so not only was there no proof these small cos were scams (just regular micro-caps) but there is no proof from the bash article (and now those running with the potentially libellous story) that the past employee was even a major player with in those cos... and also if you know anything about the micr-cap world and you have any kind of employee turnover you will cross paths with some more colourful individuals ...that often even lack formal education..... Its a very lame attempt to discredit the powerful drug pipeline that AVXL's top level scientists have built up in AVXL...... remember look up "guilt by association" and learn something...
IThe wind is changing for the "real scammers" , as you allude to...yes I think so also...The recent public humiliation of two hedge funds tells you the wind is changing....referring to Touring (spelling?) and the Pershing Square (through its investment in Valeant Pharma)......both entities (Pershing indirectly) were involved in business practices I would describe as not being in societies best interest --- buying older drugs, and jacking prices way up....IMO the scammers who bash bio companies that really stand a reasonable chance of helping large numbers of sick patients that is costing society dearly risk having a bright light focused on themselves,... ... and soon an example will be made for others to se (very much like the price jackers except in this case it is in fact an illegal activity) ......watch this will happen soon...
I was really glad to see the below post from options4u since i believe this to be true ....many are near "brain washed" with the common path for successful drugs and not envisioning what the unique characteristics of AVXL will be , if a success...... For starters the drug would sell itself almost....if it works what doctor would not know about it and prescribe it?...... That said IMO a partner would reduce a P3 trial approval likely ....but on the other hand if AVXL got the extremely rare BT in 90 days like discussed on this board below, ... would final gov approval even be an issue, and therefore almost no reason to partner.... Last thought is that where options4u stats 60% to BP in a partner deal ...I think Missling is too smart for this...my hope, if we seek a partner, would be 25% BP - 75% AVXL..and the logic for them accepting this would be the likely fairly small P3 and the ease of marketing... If the market is potentially 65 B for AD alone .... 25% interest of a simple but very large opportunity is very attractive for partners...
optionsrbest4u YMB • Oct 31, 2015 12:50 PM Flag
15users liked this postsusers disliked this posts2Reply
Considering Nothing Works for AZ - With the Right Trial Results AVXL won't need a BP Partner
In fact, with were A2-73 to prove as safe and effective as preliminary indications hint, meaning that efficacy involves greatly slowing disease progression, halting disease outright, and or actually possibly allowing for a reversal of cognitive decline, then AVXL will likely only require a minimal sales team were they to decide to completely 'go it alone' and bring A2-73 to market without a BP partner.
Granted, a very tough order for a preclinical/dev. biotech outfit to successfully achieve, but consider NOTHING really works for Alzheimer's so there will likely be no competition and the caregivers of those with Alzheimer's, and very possibly those at high risk as well, will be flooding their physicians with demands for the drug.
In other words it will very possibly be one of the all time easiest 'sells' in pharmaceutical history.
For those whose knee-jerk reaction is to claim there is just no way in helll that Anavex has the capital or expertise to see A2-73 approved and commercialized on their own - do you really think raising ANY amount of capital required will be hard once such efficacy is reasonably demonstrated?
AVXL may very well be the rare exception to the rule of 'going it alone is a recipe for failure'.
Think about it - why give 60% + to a BP for capital and marketing expertise when your drug is so phenomenally effective that raising capital is easy and it will basically sell itself. Sure there certain expertise required to market and navigate the insurance hurdles, but it will be immensely cheaper, assuming the efficacy is indeed what we hope/expect, to simply hire experts in such areas than to rely and a BP partner.
Just something to keep in mind when doing those profit models/share price projections which frequently require giving 60%, or more, of the future profits to a BP; I doubt we will need a BP partner - and that means we longs can basically make at least twice as much a we previously may have expected.
*Anticipating an 11/07 homerun. Less
you bring up details that were either recently discussed here or are discussed in past trial releases...I suggest you read there first and then ask questions...
Could it be Greek scientist Dr. V understood the uniqueness of mice study to sigma 1 receptor study .... am wondering why he has tried to jockey for a bigger stake in 273 plus...
Clearly mice studies work good in some cases but less good in others....If you hypothesis is faulty to begin with, (plaque removal) why would previous tests show success?
how many mice trials for sigma 1 receptor have been proved incorrect to date? zero maybe or close to it.... this is new science altogether .....
BINGO!!!
Summary of Avinar sale...last spring:
Japanese drugmaker Otsuka Holdings Co Ltd plans to buy U.S.-based Avanir Pharmaceuticals Inc for about $3.5 billion to expand its neurologic drug portfolio ahead of an expiration of a key drug patent.
The deal, Otsuka's biggest according to Thomson Reuters data, comes as the company aims to beef up its product pipeline ahead of a so-called "patent cliff" after April 2015, when its U.S. patent for schizophrenia drug Abilify expires and opens the way to generic competition.
Its global sales of Abilify (coming off patent soon) totaled 575.7 billion yen ($5 billion) in the last fiscal year, around 40 percent of the total for Otsuka Holdings. The United States is the biggest market for the drug.
Japanese companies, helped by cash-rich balance sheets and encouraged by an ageing domestic population, are looking overseas for growth.
Otsuka Pharmaceutical President Taro Iwamoto said the deal would "bring together Otsuka's experience and business track record in the area of mental illnesses with Avanir's strengths in neurologic diseases", according to a statement.....
What is the earliest we could get the PR ....I was thinking this coming Thursday maybe... but I was thinking Fri morning more chance... will be holding through anyways..GLTA
Note that we do not actually need the patent for 273 plus since patients could just take two separate capsules ...ones with 273 and the other generic aricept... this is how the trials now are being conducted and it would be easy for patients to do this in the future...That being said, the combo pill patent 273 plus (which should be issued) would be an advantage in some aspects ...such as partnering with Phizer....... and just convenience and simplicity for patents...
"MacFarlane as Principal Investigator is the one who knows the data, and he is also the one who worded the initial presentation title as "Clinical Cognitive Improvement observed"
Note that Missling told Street Sweeper on Oct 14 or so that he did not know "what the data will be"
Regardless, the preponderance of evidence (preclinicals, July 22nd, CTAD initial title) tells us that we will be happy with the 11/7 interim data"... MEH76_1999
One-two-three punch of 273 plus..
"ANAVEX 2-73 releases a secret weapon when metabolized by the body: ANAVEX 19-144" by Orveko
then add to that the cleaning effects of Aricept/doneprazal to plaque ...then 273 plus is a formidable weapon indeed... . Great DD Orveko and incredible that patent research can uncover serious knowledge about the science ... which makes logical sense since AVXL will want to protect the unique science and they have to explain it in the patent language.....
273 -- one two punch
273 plus -- one two three punch
The next round of bashers soon will NOT be shorters ... they will be wanting to load up and get in... funny that they think they are special and can manipulate price so as to buy when they perceive zero risk -- NOT ..... IMO the amount of strong buying post nov 7 coupled with the incredibly lame bashers (with weak credibility) will make them look silly ....watch... they will have to chase...
are you related to DW (Dim Wit) the beginner non experienced , weak, kid writer...
his expession was more bread crumbs for those good with body language...
These epilepsy results are extremely positive... Now layer on a couple other factors:
1) at the microscopic neuron level all mammals neron function is identical...i.e. mice and men.. and add that ;
2) Consert pharma just recently did preclinical studies with a completely different molecule (more side affects than avxl and behind in trials) , but with the same target (sigma 1 receptor agonist) protein misfolding and their results were almost as good as AVXL. and ;
3) many early investors actually bought avxl for Epilepsy thinking it would be the slam dunk indication; and
4) The addition of Dr. French to the SAB...
5) I noticed that the Australian analyst Baranko put a $41 per share value in the AVXL non AD pipeline potential... x4 current price without AD.
If that is not compelling I do not know what is...I think you will be hearing a lot more about Epilepsy from AVXL...
It is very good that BP will not short AVXL aggressively, if at all IMO...
BP shorting can happen in two types of situations (both of which do not characterize AVXL) : First type is when the drug is infringing on one of BP;s important drugs, so they try to slow down or even bankrupt the rival drug... The second situation is when BP may be interested in buying said company and is not worried about other suitors if they short the price down.... AVXL is in the sweet spot however, and does not infringe on any BP in any significant way (in fact you could make a case that it would support certain BP's with fading pipelines); and for the last situation shorting by BP to lower the price for a buy out ...that will not happen either as there are way to many potential suitors given the huge market in dementia....why short a stock down so another competing company can buy it cheap? (would not be smart)..... IMO it is rare to have such a potentially large market drug and be clear of danger of any significant BP shorting..... That is a relief because IMO BP are the ones with the deepest pockets and sometimes the primary driver for them has no concern for market values...... (hedgies and other financial players on the other hand, for example do play games, but they are also majorly concerned about protecting their capital)...... all very good for AVXL IMO.....
Your posting all indicate "positioning" .... I expect you to be screamiing Nov. 7 that there is some problem with the data ...nice try though...
Australia Bio analust Branko has great record (he likes AVXL a lot):
I did a bit of digging on Branko and he has a great past 10 year record. as gown below:
The best Marketocracy Masters performers (ytd):
#1 Branko Krstevski with 36.55% (@ a 10yr annual return of 18.4%)
#2 Wayne Himelsein with 22.69% (@ a 10yr annual return of 14.2%)
#3 Justin Uyehara with 22.23% (@ a 10yr annual return of 23.1%)
As well I noticed he has covered 37 US Bio stocks and 25 Australian bio stocks....I noticed also that although he gave a $83 price target for avxl, in his tweeting he gave it $124 after adding in some pipeline items...and I think , he is trying to be conservative...Additionally, going through his past picks he shows what the upside is as a percentage, for each stock covered, and out of all his picks the highest i could find was 250% except for avxl which he shows as %700 upside....ya I think he is very bullish..
What does the Roman Empire and Anaex have in common? They both got their tech from Greece....
good points ... he may have just been trying to show "big caution" in his assumptions...
Pat must have been doing a number two when he said that...
Krstevski Branko has $83 price target based on revue multiple model
Links to his blog can be found at #AVXL on stock twits and link to his chart of calcs here:
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_43870754.GIF?1444740515
Wanted to mention , I have noticed for quite a while that some very knowledgable investors are very bullish on 273 for epilepsy.. I have been aware that Anavex pre-clinical epilepsy results were stellar, but even still, their huge bullishness still made me wonder if I was missing something... Well today I found I had in fact missed something significant....and that was that the only other recent sigma 1 agonist to target epilepsy in pre-clinical trials also had stellar results -- being CNCE.... From that it appears 273 for epilepsy is a slam dunk... However, knowing how positive and overwhelming Epilepsy pre-clinicals were they still went for AD.....and what does that tell you about what they thought of AD's chances for success....Wow... and with an apparent slam dunk in epilepsy waiting in the wing...
Mao...I have been to Nihon many times ...and met a gal from Oki once...was very beautiful ..a bit more polenisian looking than other orientals....I envy you...farthest south I went there though was the ancient capital city (with the gold foil wrapped structure over the pond)..if you speak the language we can talk in code... BTW what would it cost to buy a secluded house lot on oceanfront there? in US$....
Congratulations longs for finding the needle in the OTC haystack....concurr great to be off the OTC Pinks...When I went to accumulate this stock in July my main account would not accept buying OTC stocks...Thankfully a secondary account I have would accept OTC stocks... However, in hindsight, and since I am a very concentrated type investor, if the main account would have accepted OTC I would likely have double the amount of shares..... All is good and very happy with the NAS....
BRILLIANT FINANCING expeditor is bitter and loosing money fast
those who rely on "scare term " lies means they have no valid arguments to post ....
You are mixing up the symbol AEZS with AVXL ....
scare term is completely false...do not lie...