optionsrbest4u YMB • Oct 31, 2015 12:50 PM Flag
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Considering Nothing Works for AZ - With the Right Trial Results AVXL won't need a BP Partner
In fact, with were A2-73 to prove as safe and effective as preliminary indications hint, meaning that efficacy involves greatly slowing disease progression, halting disease outright, and or actually possibly allowing for a reversal of cognitive decline, then AVXL will likely only require a minimal sales team were they to decide to completely 'go it alone' and bring A2-73 to market without a BP partner.
Granted, a very tough order for a preclinical/dev. biotech outfit to successfully achieve, but consider NOTHING really works for Alzheimer's so there will likely be no competition and the caregivers of those with Alzheimer's, and very possibly those at high risk as well, will be flooding their physicians with demands for the drug.
In other words it will very possibly be one of the all time easiest 'sells' in pharmaceutical history.
For those whose knee-jerk reaction is to claim there is just no way in helll that Anavex has the capital or expertise to see A2-73 approved and commercialized on their own - do you really think raising ANY amount of capital required will be hard once such efficacy is reasonably demonstrated?
AVXL may very well be the rare exception to the rule of 'going it alone is a recipe for failure'.
Think about it - why give 60% + to a BP for capital and marketing expertise when your drug is so phenomenally effective that raising capital is easy and it will basically sell itself. Sure there certain expertise required to market and navigate the insurance hurdles, but it will be immensely cheaper, assuming the efficacy is indeed what we hope/expect, to simply hire experts in such areas than to rely and a BP partner.
Just something to keep in mind when doing those profit models/share price projections which frequently require giving 60%, or more, of the future profits to a BP; I doubt we will need a BP partner - and that means we longs can basically make at least twice as much a we previously may have expected.
*Anticipating an 11/07 homerun. Less
