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Nice reply.
thanks for that viewpoint.
I dont play options.I'm probably too old to learn now.
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Here's my take on the current price action. today,hanging around 12.50 looks like its setting up a terminal resistance line around the 12.60-12.75 area, where we have been watching it hit resistance and drop down, like this morning. I think this downward, is the stronger direction, so watching the bounce and climb back into the resistance zone (12.60-12.75 area) is where I would expect to see another failure and the decisive move for a trade is looking at the 1 dollar and 2 dollar target zone ( 11.60-10.60 area) I like that first target zone 11.60 area to be hit. and from there the bounce and roll over has a zone going down another dollar from 12 to 11 and ,you can see the math patterns as they unfold. The (Range?) resistance target peak is around 13.00-13.30 and the 'bottom' target area has been 10.00-10.50 area
I was hoping to see the current rally reach the 14 area so I could trim some trading shares. it could still climb up to get there, but so far, stalling around the 12.70 area, thats a danger zone in my view. But the support has held at the 12.30 today, 12.25 target area is a support zone to watch, and it has a chance to hold. and rally 1 dollar to hit the 13.25 peak.
watching the bounciing ball ,basic standard stuff happening from support to resistance. nothing too exciting these days. I might just say the featured attraction for the trading cycle was the 3 dollar trade from 10 to 13, and now, currently , the moves are smaller in between and undecided which way to find the next 1 and 2 dollar moves. There are math pattern targets that show a rally wave to the high 13's...if it breaks thru the 13.30 barrier, could hit 13.70 area . 14 would be generous in this cycle. Where do the sellers want to attack the AVXL share price ? if not at 13, and then at 12.70... thats where we are at now. if not here, it could be 13.30 and 13.75 and 14.
A good rally wave now, has a chance to target 14. This bounce today looks a bit of strength here, lets see what happens now around 12.75 resistance.
Is there a target box
At the moment,we see a resistance peak around 12.70, a support target around 12 dollars.... would it have a lower bottom at 11.70, the 1 dollar target. There is also 10.70 in the pattern. The 25's are in a pattern to watch, from 13.25 to 12.25 target zone, and 11.25 then 10.25. These are not random numbers found by throwing darts.... its a math pattern, maybe corresponding to computer algos on wall street and the 1 and 2 dollar trade targets. Watching the current one from 13 to 12 thats been happening. the pattern is looking downward to me, and targets around 11.60-11.20 may be next. 11.20 could rally back up to 13.20 in a Range Pattern.
So far, the bottom bought at 10 dollars looks like it was a good trade decision, but the 13 dollar target to take profit was the trade to make. and now the next trade going down from 13 is ongoing to finish.
If the bottom holds at 10
and next,if the support holds at 11.... we might see this picture as the turning back upward from a 10 bottom, to try and retest 13/14/15/16 and I dont know if AVXL would make it back above the 16.50 resistance area. The Range zone could become 10 to 16.50 and back down again. These Range patterns are tedious, but they can be good trading zones. buying 10.50 and sell 16.50
Right now, the resistance is looking at 12 to 13.20 area and the bearish line in the sand for attack is looking around 13 area. The current rally might grind up to try and reach 13 area. Traders might be happy to take profit at 13, a 3 dollar rally.
So far, from the past few days, it is looking like 10 was a decent target to have bought. Watch the resistance pressure from 12.25 to 13 area.
It could happen I suppose
it seems this idea would shine a light on the debate whether Missling is a good custodian or not. Has he been a good strategist?
Would any of the big pharma competitors in the ALZ race catch up to Anavex if the system keeps dragging the process along? Is the FDA so corrupt now that it doesnt have the integrity to play fairly with Anavex?
Sometime, the chart is much easier to analyze than the fundamentals and the political angles.
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Today made a pleasant looking bounce follow through to the 11.80 target. and my technical outlook is to see the bouncing continue into the target zone 12.50-12.80 for a finished wave. Then looking for the pullback to hold the 11.00-11.40 area and see what happens from there. The continued upward targrts include 14 and on to 16, etc...but the resistance around 13 area would be the bearish line in the sand. something to watch later on if the pattern goes there. Right now, I'm just looking for this upwave to target the 12.70 area
Is AF and his wall street
gang like sharks trying to kill AVXL again ?
Does wall street represent the big pharma interests who dont want little outsider Anavex to succeed? Thats a conspiracy theme we've pondered for the last 8 years.I dont dismiss it. Any disruptive technology that threatens the BP money flow ,why wouldnt they try to stifle it.
Big pharma wants that big piece of the Alz pie. AF plays a role in killing the share price. That seems to be his job.
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So now looking at the current chart, if we have a "bottom" at 10 and a first upwave to 11.00-11.10 area,then today a standard retrace half way down, to 10.58 .... this wave has a Fib projection for a finishing target around the 12.60-12.75 area. something to highlight on the chart and see if the track pattern goes there in the next moves. Bearish failure might be the 12 area for resistance.
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The global political theatre show is trying to create a war scenario ,to crash the market crash bitcoin and destroy some satanic enemy targets, but they cant seem to get the trigger stories going well enough to start the big events.
yes...I'm mostly watching and waiting.
Looking at the big picture
with this chart... what does the 31 dollar peak represent ?
For me,in hindsight, it was the best place to take some profit, as was the secondary bounce at 28, and while its hard to sell any AVXL shares, it would be the technically correct trade decision. I sold a little but not enough. Any big surge like that has to be sold for some profit. The collapse back down always happens.
Then, as it collapsed down, I started buying bits too soon. another mistake. It pays to be very patient and wait for greater collapse. Its hard to wait like that, and resist the impulse to call that 16.50 sliding area a "Bottom" . Ok, so then, if traders took the gamble and bought some at 16.50 area, and fortune came to rally price up to peak at 23/22 area, That was the best place to sell those trading shares and take some profit, and perfect chart watching would have you waiting and waiting and NOT buying any, all the way down to Now, at 10 dollars. Traders should technically be buying here at 10 dollars. why are they not?
I bought a little here. All this collapse from 30 to 16 and then from 23 to 10 is NOT bolstering my confidence in the strength of AVXL. It increases my caution about buying too soon.
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Price surged from 5 dollars to 31. and since that peak, collapsed down to 10,so far.
The break down below 16 was a very big development. 10 represents the Bottom step in that target zone (17 to 10).
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A breakdown below 10.... where are the targets?
Looking at the chart again... lets pretend. We can see the great bottom lets call it 2.20. From 2.20 lets say we got a 10 bagger to the 22 peak. Lets call that secondary peak at 22 the 'real' top. a great 10 bagger from the bottom. Isnt that great? Forget all about the surging premature spike to 31 and those secondary peaks at 28, forget even the ones at 25. Be happy with charting a great 10 bagger to a top at 22, and that becomes the chart picture to look at from here.
a bottom at 2.20 and a top at 22.00
Now plot the chart. where are the targets to watch for. a 50% haircut targets 12 area. previous bottoms are at 10 dollars. there was a first resistance on the way up to 31 hit the 11 dollar area. there is past peak resistance toips around 8.00-8.40 area. Thats a big target now,waiting. Below that, whats the % target drops from 22 dollars.... a 70% drop is a target around 6.60
8.80 is 60% drop.
From 32 to 16 was a 50% haircut. from 22 to 11 is a 50% haircut. from 18 to 9 is 50%. from 16 to 8.
This is so not fun to do anymore. But the upward rally is always fun to watch. Bottom fishing is not much fun,until you catch a nice one at the bottom.
The selling top now looks like 17 area. how ugly.20 would be a gift.
BUT,if we get great chart shattering news.... it would be happy times to 30 again.
without news, 17 is the peak target in my view. a nice double, from 8.40 to 16.80 as a good trade. during a no news cycle. I'm just thinking out loud. as I wait for the 3 Gorges dam and bitcoin to collapse.
Do you know what the Rods of God are?
and today, the dust settles a little more
but I sense the roadmap arrows are pointing downward some more. I could be wrong. My core is around 2 dollars, would buying more at 8.40 be a great bargain for me?
I have some trade shares I bought way up at 25,way too soon, then some at 20, way too soon, and some last month at 15, way too soon, and a small bit I got the other day at 10.10. I'm not excited about those either. I will need to sell these few hundred at break even around 20.... 20 dollars seems so far away right now. How far away is the great news that will propel the next surge?
I like the science. I hate the waiting cycles. Another year will pass by. looking at best bottom bargains.
Oh, the Humanity...
and the cycles. up and down, and sideways, for months, and way up then way down for months. are the cycles.
Watching to see if chart movements over weeks and months are developing an upwave, or a downwave.... tiresome and sometimes, like now, I think we're seeing AVXL propelled into a "dont even bother to watch it now" cycle.
Prior to now, I saw it as a "watch the final technical target Bottom box cycle a playing field from 17 to 10. and here we are now hitting the 10 (zone) Now, depending on the next cycle from here, the lower targets looks to me like 8.50-8.00 area. I may not even bother to buy any trading shares here at 10. Maybe I'll buy a little at 8.40
From a top at 31/30 and then 28....comes the ski slope collapsing down. I had just said a day or two, maybe this 11,20 bottom zone was a good place to buy ....Oops... now should we say,Maybe this 10.10 area is a good bargain to buy.... oops. Maaybe the old ,very old peak pivot target at 8.40/8.00 is the better place to wait for in this cycle .
I trust the science. and I see what wall street does with the price and creates a new cycle.
nothing to do but sit back and watch the cycle play out.
After watching these cycles go way up and collapse way back down for 10 years.... its lost its excitement for me. I did not take enough profit at all the tops. but I did manage to buy enough at all the best bottoms . what will become the best bottom now in this new cycle? I dont know. Maybe here at 10...oops....maybe at 8.30 in the next plunge down.
The best development for me... is that after so many years of explaining and describing the patterns to my wife, she does understand it and has the same patience and resignation that I do. so at least she is not driving me crazy about our investments. Thats good enough for me.
well, looks like
we did see an end of day push thru 13, heading to retest the 13.20-13.40 resistance peak?
I see this as a nice traders trade pattern. buying the 11.25/11.40 area, and getting a nice 1.70-2.00 gift. whats not to like as a trade pattern here.
On a swing pattern picture if by some weird twist, the powers decide to create a swing pattern, it would be a happy development for the portfolio to see this wave become a larger upwave to try and retest 14 area. By Holding the pullback now at 12 dollars, and giving us another 2 dollar trade rally.
I'm not playing these trade waves at the moment, because I'm still reacting to the plunge to 11.10 bottom. watching the dust settle. expecting more collapse, because I'm overly cautious and also worrying about greater market collapse that hasnt happened yet. Today, it saw the stock market hold up and bounce ok, so its all suddenly feeling bullish again. would AVXL begin a swing wave upwave pattern now? If this becomes the next pattern, the people who bought the 11.25 Bottom got lucky. I wont chase it at 12 dollars. But I'm happy for those who added at 11.25/11.40 ...(So Far) so far...
always be super careful about buying AVXL too soon.
After seeing AVXL up at 22 and 23, or 28 dollars and we're all positive and happy.... the idea o buying more at 20 was tempting. I'm so glad I waited. I didnt buy at 18 or 15 or 13. and I didnt even buy at 11.25. Maybe 11.25 was a good buy. I will buy some at 10 and lower if it ever happens. trading shares for me. my core is at 1.59.
nice little follow thru bounce today
makes me feel upbeat, as it always does. now technically, I think its time to anticipate the standard pullback from this 12.90 peak , will the steps hold around 12.20-12,40 area? I would doubt it. but the technical pattern potential is there. and the math target might be looking to retest the 13.30-13.40 area. and see if the wave pattern can find any traction this time, where it failed last time. Not much else to report.
The S+P made a nice follow thru bounce today, and suddenly looks like its not collapsing now. we shall see.
AVXL is playing around the lines 11/12/13 these days.
the basic picture would be watching to see if 12 holds as a key support line.area.
I believe in the science.
but I also see how the price waves go way up and way down.
My own chart focus has always been swing patterns,so these are the big waves we watch over months to play out. Now this downwave that started when price peaked at the 23 area... is all just watching the math logic and the patterns play out.
The previous 'support zone' we watched holding around 16.50 area rallied up nice to 23.the logic pattern watch needed to see the 18/19/20 area hold support.It ultimately faled at 18 and that propelled the latest downwave to bust down below 16.50. Thats when I drew the ugly black target box that covered a zone from 16.50 to 10 dollars.
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down and down it tumbles in this playing field. and then after plunging to 11.10 the other day.... it began a 2 dollar rally. peaking at 13.40
So now ,once again, the swing chart analyst, any technical analyst, says ....Oh,Goodie, we have something to examine now. My own lens measures the pullback zone to watch for, and see if it holds support and see if theres any bullish follow through that might suggest, the Bottom could be in at the 11 target low.
In a 2 dollar rally wave, math is simple,you can do it in your head ok, I'm looking for 'support' to hold the 12 dollar area. maybe 11.80 area, ideally above 12, more like 12.20 would have been bullish looking.
What we watched was a selling cascade that plunged well below the first targets around 12.50/60,plunged right to 12.20. bounced there to fail at 12.70 area and down it tumbles. plunging below 12 and looking at retest the 11 dollar target all over again. This demonstrated no bullish strength, after making a 2 dollar bounce from a deep low bottom area.
The conclusive word for this action in my view is UGLY.
Ugly price collapse.and it could continue down to target 10 . why wouldnt it.
below 10 is 9/8 and then the 6.50 area.
As I forecasted and warned upon deaf and dismissive ears a few months ago, the black swan warnings of stock market collapse, etc and political dangers triggering economic trouble, it has been unfolding , and AVXL has collapsed without letting up so far. Once it broke below the 16.50 'support' all the selling was there for the taking.
The professional skill to exercise now is not to panic, just stay calm, watch the internet news for more market collapse, and black swan troubles coming. This is just the beginning. The time to raise cash dry powder,trim some profit, sell some stocks, was last november.too late now. wait for the absolute bottom where AVXL starts buying again, and buy some more at the bottomest bottom. Do you think it might be 11? 10? 8? 6? I dont know where it might become yet.
yes it was
all day the buyers displayed bouncing strength and each time, the selling bots took it down again. the final selling collapse was like a knockdown blow surging thru any imaginary support and with a kick in the nuts for good measure
well said, 'oldnintheway'
K123, what do you make of
this big downwave? Is it reaching our target zone yet?
From the top at 20.20/20.30 we have seen every dollar down target hit stations at 19.30/18.20/30 17.20 area/16.20 (the latest peak) then 15.20/14.20
will we see 13.20 next.
downwaves roll over just like this
Do you have a time frame for
when the Avatar data could come out ?
and one more chart
retrace resistance targets
AVXL rally set up may be in a race against the market pressures
Another week finishes . The S+P peaked and began a pullback. AVXL has been in a downwave pattern for months. searching for its Bottom. developing.
14.80 target so far
Ive learned to never say the bottom is in
when it comes to how wall street tosses AVXL around like a rag doll.
14.75 does look like a good low target area. but you just never know.
IF we see a stock market crash, where will AVXL fall to. 8 dollars? 6 dollars? hard to know.
Have a lot of dry powder ready .
its becoming a set up
where there is a convergence between the science presentations/news cycle and the chart price action patterns. I also like to see these kind of set ups. when they dovetail in timing like this, there isnt much of a better set up to watch for. and the rally may start now, like today appears, if it continues up into the news timing,we can anticipate this upward direction to continue here,BUT watch out if the news fails to come when expected.
we watched a 6 dollar downwave from 21.25 to 14.75.
somewhere in between are some key targets to watch for resistance capping.
Thats your opinion.
good luck to you
not too many intel insiders out there at all. but there are some worth paying attention to. Did you know the world is in a global war? do you know who the good guys and bad guys are?
Go avxl. Let's hope it holds somewhere in the 15's and makes a good bounce back up,and before the market crashes.
dis is nonsense
watch the price action. find the targets.
nibble
just help me find the targets in the 15's now...
AVXL nonsense
take the time to Examine the pivot target points all along the 16's going down. Remember the points in your mind. They represent the targets that got hit and future steps as well. see how close your forecast came, in these steps as they went down. That shows you how sharp (or not) your chart mapping was/is.
yes, the timing of the current downwave
is disappointing. we had a chance to trim some at 19.80 and that was it so far.
Black swans
can be different triggers. Just watch out now. I am being sincere in my warnings. There isnt much we can do about it other than have dry powder ready to buy the crash bottoms if we are lucky and skillful.
The political clues are pointing at these next 2 weeks.
I like to follow 'whiplash347' on telegram. he seems like an insider.
AVXL is following along technical tracks these days. targets in the 15's now.
and a warm happy holiday to you too,my anavexxed friend
not good,I agree
Price is suffering the downward pressure.
Under normal market circumstances I might have bought a little here at 16 and anything lower, but these days I fear the black swan events looming on the near horizon. The S+P is still hanging in there at the top but Evergrande is ready to blow up markets as well as the bitcoin/3 Gorges dam. Many black swans waiting. Queen death,as well.
Like so many of us here
I want to thank you for the immeasurable service you've given to us, a great gift that makes this a great forum. Without your vision I would be so much more blind.
Happy holiday to you and your family and best of fortune and wellness in the new year.
And to everyone here as well.
Tom
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Maybe Missling should just stop
trying to tell people what they want to hear. and try more to explain the way they analyze the data so that people wont get their hopes and expectations up for specific times .
Isnt the analysis working on completely different science paradigms and specific markers? an evolving science process? it's dynamic...changing, developing. Its precision medicine. Its fascinating new insights every cycle.
AVXL ends the year with a
week going up and a week right back down .
Waiting on the next news cycle to begin a new cycle... or to maintain the current cycle.
It should be interesting to see what happens.
Safe to say the days of prices at 2-4 dollars are gone. Are the days of 10-12 dollars gone as well? we'll have to watch and see.
End of year/17.35 support step chart
I Wonder.... if people will sell stronger in the next week if their disappointed hopes from news 'promises' that went unfulfilled, makes them sell. The expectations of news that didnt come? some might sell. It wont bother longs who believe, but maybe some who dont understand the development process is a different paradigm to be patient with,a new time frame to be more patient with.its more complex than the past markers .
Its been a great blessing to have the outstanding science analysts here who do understand.
Red, I agree with most of what you said. except I do think charts are always worth examining. on all time frames and they do offer clues for trade triggers and targets for algo math trading systems which is how wall street trades move now.
I still find my chart methods help me 'see the targets'
Happy Holiday and Good luck to everyone in the new year.
Difficult chart to examine
The last 2 and a half months have been a volatile zig zag up and down from the 16's to the 22/23 area. and feels almost impossible to pinpoint much about it that would offer tradable clues. So I havent had much to post about these days. The bullish looking rallies have all broken down. the sellers have jumped on the top zone with a force every time and taken it down to the bottom zone. a choppy Range pattern is the only thing I could call it.
and not much else to say. No news/no uptrend/no bullish momentum sustained. Maybe the solid developing science is what has kept the bottom zone holding above 16. Will that floor continue to hold? who knows.
Traders with basic trust in trading the Range would have done well buying the low zone and selling the 19/20/21 top area and not worrying about the enormous potential of the future. I did a little trading but not enough to make a difference.
AVXL traded a Range for a long time from 2 to 6 and 2 to 4, and then it traded a range from 10/11 to 15/16 for a while and now from 16 to 22.
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AVXL Range
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Seems ok so far.
I'm almost happy for you
as we watch the share price puke into the bottom zone again.
I'm in a small position
In DSGT. I don't know if it would be a good one.
Bought at 18 cents
I hope not just yet.
I need to have one more bounce for avxl.
Ive been seeing all these warnings from the Intel reporters for 2 months. We need to watch for the signs coming. Death of the queen.3 Gorges dam and bitcoin collapse. And war escalation.
I havent taken the time to learn and practice the day trading of the etf's like C has done. he's a good one to get some tips from. I am interested in some trading and then when I look for some,I just end up thinking that AVXL is probably as good to trade as any.
We've had some focus on Workhorse last year at this forum. Are you thinking of it as a trade or a long term hold?
My trade target for today was 19. So I took a little profit there.
Happy holidays to you as well